Billboard Hot 100: 11/28/2020

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Early preds (Talk of the Charts)

1.Mood 308
2.Therefore I Am 232
3.positions 212
4.Laugh Now Cry Later 202
5.I Hope 200
6.Lemonade 188
7.Blinding Lights 187
8.Holy 178
9.Dakiti 175
10.For The Night 167
-----
12.Kings & Queens
16.Hawai
28.34+35
34.All I Want For Christmas Is You
36.pov
49.Holiday
91.Iris

[chartfreak]

^^ yay at Kings & Queens...and can we get Brenda Lee a #1 this year!?

[jenglisbe]

Nov 17, 2020 18:57:45 GMT -5 atg said:

Nov 16, 2020 20:41:50 GMT -5 failstoner said:

Yep, it has reached #19 for this week's chart points, top 10 GOAT shouldn't be hard either

Imagine circles hits the top 10 all time, but only months later, gets surpassed with another hit and it all happened unofficially but the song (BL) is just as amazing you’re not that disappointed at this fact

They need to readjust their all-time formula to account for how long songs are staying on the chart in 2020.

[amid]

Nov 17, 2020 22:32:36 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

can we get Brenda Lee a #1 this year!?

I wish... but there will just simply never be a point in time again when Rockin around the Christmas Tree is more popular than All I Want For Christmas Is You. unfortunately, I think her ceiling is #2 :(

[atg]

Nov 17, 2020 22:41:17 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 17, 2020 18:57:45 GMT -5 atg said:

Imagine circles hits the top 10 all time, but only months later, gets surpassed with another hit and it all happened unofficially but the song (BL) is just as amazing you’re not that disappointed at this fact

They need to readjust their all-time formula to account for how long songs are staying on the chart in 2020.

If i hope somehow makes the all time list, they definitely have to readjust

[lurker2]

Nov 17, 2020 23:05:52 GMT -5 amid said:

Nov 17, 2020 22:32:36 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

can we get Brenda Lee a #1 this year!?

I wish... but there will just simply never be a point in time again when Rockin around the Christmas Tree is more popular than All I Want For Christmas Is You. unfortunately, I think her ceiling is #2 :(

I wonder if Santa Tells Me/Mistletoe/Underneath The Tree get big, the market for poppy Christmas songs won't be as cornered. Not saying it'll happen anytime soon, but IMO it's inevitable AIWFCIY loses its crown as #1 Christmas song, just due to how long lasting Christmas songs are— didn't White Christmas hold it for decades, anyway?

[iHype.]

AIWFCIY will probably lose its top-Holiday song crown one day. As for one, Rockin' Around/any other Holiday song can simply have a very viral moment one year that causes it to outdo AIWFCIY. That is the most realistic scenario that can happen at anytime without anyone being able to see beforehand.

Otherwise, trends/tastes obviously change overtime naturally too. Maybe another classic will just become more favorited overtime (ala usage in movies/tv/etc similar to how Bohemian Rhapsody, Don't Stop Believin', etc just became so much bigger overtime than other classics after recent media usage).

Then ofcourse someone can just make a new Holiday song that becomes a standard.

Also maybe some classics will just burnout overtime. The biggest difference today in streaming is we can just hear every single song on-demand unlimited. Many people just may personally burn themselves out from AIWFCIY or any other classic over years after having access to always hear it when they please to. Versus in the sales era you maybe hear these Holiday classics in public, but don't think its worth going to the store and buying them to only play them for a weeks, so you just stick to mainly hearing them in public atmospheres so they burnout less to you (this would also explain why Holiday classics do so much better on Spotify charts than they ever did on the iTunes sales charts too).

Bottomline, it's kinda unrealistic to think for years and decades absolutely nothing will come along to shake up the popularity of some Holiday music.

[fridayteenage]

Youtube: BTS Life Goes On teaser 12 mil, Ariana video 8 mil.

Expecting crazy high #s for LGO just like Dynamite with the 4 biggest sales weeks of 2020.

[jodakyellow]

Nov 18, 2020 2:15:56 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Bottomline, it's kinda unrealistic to think for years and decades absolutely nothing will come along to shake up the popularity of some Holiday music.

I tried saying this in another thread and no one agreed with me lmao... I agree with you!!

[forg]

Rockin Around the Christmas remix feat BTS will get it to #1

[GP]

Levitating closer to the top20!

[jenglisbe]

Nov 18, 2020 2:15:56 GMT -5 iHype. said:

AIWFCIY will probably lose its top-Holiday song crown one day. As for one, Rockin' Around/any other Holiday song can simply have a very viral moment one year that causes it to outdo AIWFCIY. That is the most realistic scenario that can happen at anytime without anyone being able to see beforehand.

Correct.

We will also see how the metrics change with time. At some point sales will likely become truly obsolete, which takes one metric away. Radio/airplay will continue to change in several ways, and I can see songs from the past 10 years doing better in airplay as time passes. That won't be in the next few years, but in another decade it could easily happen. Streaming will obviously help, too, though the classics do as well there as new songs do.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/11/18

1(=) 24kGoldn - Mood (feat. iann dior) 133.46(+0.43)
2(=) Gabby Barrett - I Hope (feat. Charlie Puth) 118.14(+0.18)
3(+1) Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later (feat. Lil Durk) 98.96(+0.59)
4(-1) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 98.31(-1.88)
5(=) Ava Max - Kings & Queens 98.22(+1.54)
6(=) Surf Mesa - ily (i love you baby) [feat. Emilee] 92.54(+0.62)
7(=) Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy 90.89(+0.29)
8(=) Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 85.95(-1.22)
9(=) Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) 85.72(-0.52)

10(=) Justin Bieber - Holy (feat. Chance the Rapper) 75.50(+0.98)

12(=) BTS - Dynamite 65.64(+0.94)

17(=) Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown 54.43(+0.70)

20(+1) Ariana Grande - positions 51.69(+0.72)

23(=) Blake Shelton - Happy Anywhere (feat. Gwen Stefani) 48.09(+0.79)

31(+2) Internet Money & Gunna - Lemonade (feat. Don Toliver & NAV) 41.21(+1.01)

42(+1) Pop Smoke - For The Night (feat. Lil Baby & DaBaby) 33.23(+0.95)

48(+2) Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely 28.11(+0.72)

54(+10) Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am 25.32(+3.57)

68(+15) Maluma & The Weeknd - Hawái (Remix) 20.60(+1.92) +

70(+11) Thomas Rhett - What's Your Country Song 20.39(+1.60)

[iamsorare]

[Mayman]

I wonder if More Than My Hometown can hit the top 10 when his album is released. The last time a country artist got multiple top 10 hits from an album was Taylor Swift with Red, right?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I might have a chance to get there in the next two to three weeks when radio peaks for it, but holiday songs might prevent it from reaching the top 10 then. Hard to say what kind of boost it could get from the album's release.

[jenglisbe]

Mariah, Ariana, and J Hud are doing a new version of "Oh Santa" to be released 12/4. Not that I actually expect it to go to #1, but since the original has a peak of #100 I can't help but wonder if Gary and some others would consider it a jump from 100-1.

[jodakyellow]

Nov 18, 2020 10:37:07 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mariah, Ariana, and J Hud are doing a new version of "Oh Santa" to be released 12/4. Not that I actually expect it to go to #1, but since the original has a peak of #100 I can't help but wonder if Gary and some others would consider it a jump from 100-1.

My (unsolicited) opinion is absolutely not — a 100-1 jump should mean #100 one week and #1 the week that immediately follows

[jenglisbe]

Nov 18, 2020 10:51:54 GMT -5 jodakyellow said:

Nov 18, 2020 10:37:07 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mariah, Ariana, and J Hud are doing a new version of "Oh Santa" to be released 12/4. Not that I actually expect it to go to #1, but since the original has a peak of #100 I can't help but wonder if Gary and some others would consider it a jump from 100-1.

My (unsolicited) opinion is absolutely not — a 100-1 jump should mean #100 one week and #1 the week that immediately follows

Ha mine too. It was a reference to the discussions about songs that are top 10 and then fall off the chart the next week.

[Mayman]

I'm excited to see how "Oh Santa" performs on the charts.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 11/17/2020

1(=) Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am 1,348,332 (-30,327)
2(=) Ariana Grande - positions 1,197,398 (+13,034)
3(=) Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Dakiti 1,030,749 (+7,389)
4(+1) Internet Money - Lemonade 945,148 (+30,917)
5(-1) 24kGoldn - Mood 933,154 (+14,072)
6(+1) Pop Smoke - For the Night 834,448 (+58,833)
7(-1) Ariana Grande - pov 798,201 (+13,221)
8(+1) Ariana Grande - 34+35 752,330 (+42,995)
9(-1) Cardi B - WAP 736,904 (+8,707)
10(=) Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love 717,638 (+14,252)

Pluto x Baby Pluto:
27(-12) Drankin N Smokin 481,914 (-86,193)
44(-13) That's It 397,444 (-38,691)
55(-7) Stripes Like Burberry 375,268 (-1,124)
92(-18) Real Baby Pluto 286,583 (-22,775)

Other:
11(=) Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later 695,636 (+32,116)
12(=) Justin Bieber - Lonely 629,242 (+14,298)
13(=) Lil Nas X - HOLIDAY 607,963 (+15,975)
14(=) Jack Harlow - Tyler Herro 569,982 (-10,594)
16(+1) Justin Bieber - Holy 556,784 (+20,473)
17(+1) Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On 538,253 (+11,387)
18(+1) Conan Gray - Heather 534,144 (+9,071)
19(+5) Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas is You 525,743 (+25,343)
21(-1) The Kid LAROI - SO DONE 516,994 (+5,628)
22(+1) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 510,081 (+5,048)
24(-3) Maluma, The Weeknd - Hawái Remix 500,310 (-8,160)
25(+1) Tate McRae - you broke me first 498,728 (+12,608)
26(+2) Dua Lipa - Levitating 486,311 (+18,558)
28(-1) Clairo - Sofia 469,365 (-468)
29(+4) Polo G - Martin & Gina 462,225 (+43,993)
30(-1) Luke Combs - Forever After All 459,020 (-2,986)
32(=) 21 Savage - Runnin 453,676 (+22,211)
33(+3) CJ - Whoopty 439,551 (+23,542)
34(+3) Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 437,291 (+22,532)
38(=) Machine Gun Kelly - my ex's best friend 423,372 (+11,204)
40(+4) Bobby Helm - Jingle Bell Rock 406,803 (+17,309)
45(+1) Shawn Mendes - Wonder 397,321 (+14,253)
46(-1) Chris Stapleton - Starting Over 396,142 (+11,270)
47(+5) Ariana Grande - Santa Tell Me 395,937 (+26,367)
49(=) Wham! - Last Christmas 392,140 (+19,383)
50(+11) 21 Savage - Mr. Right Now 387,359 (+38,576)
52(+3) DDG - Moonwalking in the Calabasas 381,989 (+14,853)
53(+1) Andy Williams - It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 380,860 (+13,492)
58(-1) Ashnikko - Daisy 369,458 (+6,802)
61(+2) Michael Bublé - It's Beginning to Look a Lot like Christmas 354,367 (+12,233)
62(-2) King Von - Took Her to the O 352,871 (+1,836)
66(+19) DaBaby - PRACTICE 341,805 (+51,024)
68(=) James Arthur - Train Wreck 330,982 (+5,811)
71(-1) Harry Styles - Golden 315,214 (+4,125)
75(+1) Luke Combs - Better Together 307,370 (-597)
77(-5) CORPSE, Savage Ga$p - E-GIRLS ARE RUINING MY LIFE! 306,514 (-4,177)
84(+6) Kelly Clarkson - Underneath the Tree 300,014 (+18,837)
86(-3) The Neighbourhood - Daddy Issues 296,152 (+991)
88(+8) Ricky Montgomery - Line Without a Hook 292,833 (+19,652)
95(-3) Jawsh 465, Jason Derulo - Savage Love 282,243 (+2,571)
99(-8) Lil Peep - Star Shopping 274,601 (-6,458)
100(-3) Harry Styles - Falling 274,077 (+2,015)

115(+1) Fousheé - Deep End 255,536 (+5,668)
120(+2) Jason Derulo - Take You Dancing 251,908 (+7,248)
121(-7) Liz Eazzyy - Onna Come Up 251,280 (+668)
123(+14) Justin Bieber - Mistletoe 249,966 (+16,762)
128(-2) Joel Corry - Head & Heart 247,163 (+7,823)
130(-2) Ricky Montogomery - Mr Loverman 244,158 (+6,271)
138(+2) 347aidan - Dancing in My Room 237,561 (+5,005)
139(+6) Dean Martin - Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 236,428 (+6,651)
151(+5) The Ronettes - Sleigh Ride 228,320 (+7,052)
162(+15) Michael Bublé - Holly Jolly Christmas 222,765 (+11,701)
171(+9) Frank Sinatra - Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 218,707 (+8,570)
190(+4) José Feliciano - Feliz Navidad 207,612 (+6,757)
198(re-entry) Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 202,283

Biggest Gains (50K+): PRACTICE, For the Night

[Choco]

People seem particularly hungry for Xmas content this year. May be that we're all ready to leave the year behind... Maybe we can get some sort of top 10 invasion of Holiday songs this year? Similar to when Ed Sheeran took 9 of the top 10 spots on the UK chart.

By the time Mariah drops her holiday special, AIWFCIY will be at least top 20 already.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Since whatever is performed in the special will become available for streaming standalone on different platforms a few days after it airs, if something catches on, it should manage to debut in the Hot 100.

[purp child]

I wonder if LNCL can survive Christmas in the top 10 and make it to CLB’s release in January

[Choco]

brb still cringin' at "Certified Lover Boy" being an album title.

[Harx]

Nov 18, 2020 12:32:45 GMT -5 Choco said:

brb still cringin' at "Certified Lover Boy" being an album title.

It's kinda cringe but it's also such a Drake name I'm surprised all of his albums up to this point weren't titled Certified Lover Boy

[jodakyellow]

Nov 18, 2020 12:42:41 GMT -5 Harx said:

Nov 18, 2020 12:32:45 GMT -5 Choco said:

brb still cringin' at "Certified Lover Boy" being an album title.

It's kinda cringe but it's also such a Drake name I'm surprised all of his albums up to this point weren't titled Certified Lover Boy

It really should just be his stage name

Nov 18, 2020 11:08:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 18, 2020 10:51:54 GMT -5 jodakyellow said:

My (unsolicited) opinion is absolutely not — a 100-1 jump should mean #100 one week and #1 the week that immediately follows

Ha mine too. It was a reference to the discussions about songs that are top 10 and then fall off the chart the next week.

I repress all of Gary's bad takes; I'm very generous that way

[purp child]

Nov 18, 2020 12:32:45 GMT -5 Choco said:

brb still cringin' at "Certified Lover Boy" being an album title.

First comes the cringe then everybody wishing it didn’t run 2021

[Gary]

Nov 18, 2020 14:02:58 GMT -5 jodakyellow said:

Nov 18, 2020 12:42:41 GMT -5 Harx said:

It's kinda cringe but it's also such a Drake name I'm surprised all of his albums up to this point weren't titled Certified Lover Boy

It really should just be his stage name

Nov 18, 2020 11:08:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Ha mine too. It was a reference to the discussions about songs that are top 10 and then fall off the chart the next week.

I repress all of Gary's bad takes; I'm very generous that way

I don't really care if people want to do the math differently or not. If we want to fudge the math and say 1-34 is a bigger drop from #1 than 1 to out, that is fine with me.

However, It might help to look at drops from the top 10 to another position, in which case we all know what that is. That might remove the semantics argument from this.
Biggest drop to another position is certainly different than biggest drop altogether.

The biggest overall drop from #1 can be whatever you guys want I suppose but it isn't just me issuing "bad takes" saying 1-"Out" is bigger than 1-34, it also got written up in Billboard that way too. In any case, I suspect the first week of January will have a bunch of similar drops.

Jun 29, 2020 13:09:33 GMT -5 Gary said:

Update


As noted above, 6ix9ine and Nicki Minaj's "Trollz" free falls from No. 1 on the Hot 100, where it debuted a week ago, to No. 34. It slides 1-7 on Digital Song Sales (9,000, down 92%) and 3-18 on Streaming Songs (13.8 million, down 62%), although it gains by 97% to 2.3 million in radio reach. The song sets the record for the steepest drop from No. 1 to another rank in the Hot 100's nearly 62-year history, with its 1-34 tumble doubling that of the prior record-holder, The Weeknd's "Heartless," which fell 1-17 on the Dec. 21, 2019-chart.

As for the biggest overall drop from No. 1, Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" disappeared from the chart entirely after it logged its third week on top on Jan. 4, 2020; of course, the departure was essentially owed to the end of the holiday season, as all 25 Yuletide titles on the chart that week were no longer on the Jan. 11 ranking. ("Worth it haaa another record!" Carey joked on Twitter in response to Billboard.)



www.billboard.com/articles/business/chart-beat/9411108/dababy-rockstar-number-one-hot-100-third-week

[iamsorare]

Here we go