2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[mikerivera]

I’m creating a new thread for the 2021 YE projections, and my guess is that we should keep creating new threads every year, especially as more and more people get involved in making projections. I don’t know if I’ll be personally involved in projecting (I’m finishing college this semester, so I’ll have extra time that I may or may not want to use making projections), but I highly encourage anybody with an interest and accurate methodology to post your projections here! 

Past Projections
2013 Year End Projection
2014 Year End Projection
2015 Year End Projection
2016 Year End Projection
2017 Year End Projection
2018 Year End Projection
2019 Year End Projection
2020 Year End Projection

Credits

2013	Daniel Collins
2014	Daniel Collins
2015	broccoli
2016	georgetherunner314
2017	snoopdawg
2018	fhas
2019	rimetm
2020	Sailor Mars

[annoymous1]

Can't wait to see what's in store for the 2021 year end. I think Blinding Lights will obviously make 2021 year end.

[Groovy]

Did the year end for 2020 publish already?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^No. It publishes usually in the first couple of weeks of December.

[Groovy]

Oh okay but here's some songs I think will make the 2021 Year-End

Mood- 24KGoldn feat. Iann Dior
positions- Ariana Grande
Blinding Lights- The Weeknd
Laugh Now Cry Later- Drake feat. Lil Durk
Holy- Justin Bieber feat. Chance the Rapper
Dakiti- Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez
Levitating- Dua Lipa & DaBaby
For the Night- Pop Smoke feat. Lil Baby & DaBaby
What You Know Bout Love- Pop Smoke
I Hope- Gabby Barrett feat. Charlie Puth
pov- Ariana Grande
Wonder- Shawn Mendes
Lonely- Justin Bieber feat. Benny Blanco
7 Summers- Morgan Wallen
Heather- Conan Gray
Put Your Records On- Ritt Momney
Lemonade- Internet Money & Gunna feat. Nav & Don Toliver
Therefore I Am- Billie Eilish
Hawai- Maluma & The Weeknd
you broke me first- Tate McRae
Forever After All- Luke Combs
ily (i love you baby)- Surf Mesa & Emilee
Golden- Harry Styles
Bang!- AJR

[Deleted]

Songs currently charting that so far I assume will make this year end:

-positions
-34+35
-Mood
-Lemonade
-Levitating
-WAP
-Dakiti
-Laugh Now Cry Later
-I Hope
-Savage Love 
-Blinding Lights
-Kings & Queens
-Holy 
-Before You Go 
-Go Crazy
-ily
-Watermelon Sugar
-Rockstar
-For The Night
-You Broke Me First
-Bang! 

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

I thought I was tripping with seeing two 2020 YE Predictions thread, but it makes sense to create a new one every year.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 14, 2020 14:47:07 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Oh okay but here's some songs I think will make the 2021 Year-End

Heather- Conan Gray

Feel like Heather is gonna get caught in between years. It's peaked in streaming and it's still radio is still too slow to catch up

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Before You Go seems to be falling too quickly on radio and might not make it.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 14, 2020 14:50:34 GMT -5 @mirza said:

Songs currently charting that so far I assume will make this year end:

-positions
-34+35
-Mood
-Lemonade
-Levitating
-WAP
-Dakiti
-Laugh Now Cry Later
-I Hope
-Savage Love 
-Blinding Lights
-Kings & Queens
-Holy 
-Before You Go 
-Go Crazy
-ily
-Watermelon Sugar
-Rockstar
-For The Night
-You Broke Me First
-Bang! 

The rest I think these are safe picks except for a couple. ROCKSTAR is bleeding radio fast, it might still make it onto the list but I feel this might be one of borderline cut-off repeats. It's also looking worrying for Savage Love, radio is starting to falter and streaming collapsed the last few weeks. 

BANG! is heads or tails for me, but it could be stable enough to sneak onto next year, same with as You Broke Me First - I think the latter might be the next Falling or death bed and become the newest TikTok viral hit to get a radio push months after it peaked.

[GP]

Will Dua, Harry and Abel still dominate!! ahh a new year with lots to come!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Drake's coming back to dominate. I can't wait for LNCL and another single off of Certified Lover Boy (I can't believe they're still going with that title) to become a hit on TikTok and go to number one 

[Groovy]

Nov 15, 2020 11:48:11 GMT -5 GP said:

Will Dua, Harry and Abel still dominate!! ahh a new year with lots to come!

I'm upset that Physical didn't become a hit but at least we have Levitating climbing the charts as for Harry, Golden will be the next hit off of Fine Line which I'm all and The Weeknd, I was hoping In Your Eyes would be bigger and Save Your Tears would be hit but they weren't. He'll another hit when it's 2025 and they stop pushing Blinding Lights. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I think Harry will release a deluxe issue of Fine Line. He already has 5 singles: Lights Up, Adore You, Falling, Watermelon Sugar, and now Golden. After Golden, I dont see any other single except for maybe Sunflower.

I think best chance for another hit is a deluxe with a duet or collab with a big name artist. Maybe Dua or Taylor or even King Princess if Harry wants to give her a hit.

[mikerivera]

A Harry Styles-Taylor Swift collab would be a hit off of the hype alone

[Deleted]

Nov 15, 2020 12:43:23 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I think Harry will release a deluxe issue of Fine Line. He already has 5 singles: Lights Up, Adore You, Falling, Watermelon Sugar, and now Golden. After Golden, I dont see any other single except for maybe Sunflower.

I think best chance for another hit is a deluxe with a duet or collab with a big name artist. Maybe Dua or Taylor or even King Princess if Harry wants to give her a hit.

I'd die for any of those collabs tbh
But like I'd want the King Princess one the most cause we been needed to give her a hit

I also think she fits more with Harry's slight rock-esque tinges in various songs of his

[tanooki]

wait why are we making new threads for the year end?

[mikerivera]

My thought is that 1) the threads will be less cluttered and easier to find stuff for future reference 2) because of the uncertainty of what the cutoff date for the year end lists are, it will be easier to put the projections in separate threads. Particularly for this upcoming week, which might be either the first week of 2021 or the last week of 2020. So by separating the threads, it can be a lot less confusing to see 53 week scenarios posted in the other thread while the new year scenarios are simultaneously posted in this one

[inverse]

i kinda like doing 5 or so years on the same thread but that's just me if everyone else wants to do it this way that's cool

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Back then, multiple YE predictions were made in the same thread. But after last year, when the cutoff was undetermined and the final predictions had 6 different scenarios, hacking a single thread for every year would make the most sense.

[lifeofaguardian]

I'll keep on doing my thing in here again for 2021, but I'll probably wait until the first week of january to post the forecasts, once the christmas music is gone and the charts are back to being normal.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 15, 2020 17:53:02 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Back then, multiple YE predictions were made in the same thread. But after last year, when the cutoff was undetermined and the final predictions had 6 different scenarios, hacking a single thread for every year would make the most sense.

To be sure, eventually they would have to have a 53 week chart year. So, it definitely makes sense until then.

[Groovy]

How do you think Holiday will do on the chart?

[xtynaaguilera99]

Can’t wait to see what this new year has in store for us.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Can I ask something about previous formulas: if YouTube was implemented back in 2010, would Baby and Waka Waka have hit number one?

[xtynaaguilera99]

For curiosity: in 2010, only sales and radio were counted, right?

[spoons]

Nov 14, 2020 14:50:34 GMT -5 @mirza said:

Songs currently charting that so far I assume will make this year end:

-positions
-34+35
-Mood
-Lemonade
-Levitating
-WAP
-Dakiti
-Laugh Now Cry Later
-I Hope
-Savage Love 
-Blinding Lights
-Kings & Queens
-Holy 
-Before You Go 
-Go Crazy
-ily
-Watermelon Sugar
-Rockstar
-For The Night
-You Broke Me First
-Bang! 

can i just say i love when chart watchers put those emojis on songs they dislike im all about that shade.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Even as someone who doesn't like her, I don't know how I'd feel if Kings & Queens became Ava Max's highest peaking song

[xtynaaguilera99]

Nov 17, 2020 8:15:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Even as someone who doesn't like her, I don't know how I'd feel if Kings & Queens became Ava Max's highest peaking song

It deserves.

[Harx]

Nov 17, 2020 8:33:25 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

Nov 17, 2020 8:15:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Even as someone who doesn't like her, I don't know how I'd feel if Kings & Queens became Ava Max's highest peaking song

It deserves.

K&Q > SbP