2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[Groovy]

It’s week 1 of the 2021 Billboard year and the 2nd best song on the chart is at the top spot.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Rooting for "Levitating", "Kings & Queens", "Diamonds", "pov", "B.S.", and "U 2 Luv" to keep up their increasing performances. It would be amazing to have these songs making the 2021 Year-End.

Also rooting for "Midnight Sky", but we might need a miracle.

[Limited Edition]

Nov 17, 2020 8:43:04 GMT -5 Harx said:

Nov 17, 2020 8:33:25 GMT -5 xtynaaguilera99 said:

It deserves.

K&Q > SbP

Nope. SbP >K&Q. Also Torn, Salt and half of the album >K&Q

[inverse]

Had a fever dream in which i was surrounded by dancing clowns changing "K&Q > SbP" it was very frightening to say the least

[nathanalbright]

The fact that we're having this conversation at all is a good one, as it means that Ava Max is definitively not a one-hit wonder. I was worried about that when she attempted so many follow-ups to Sweet But Psycho that failed to chart.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^In both cases, the songs took a while to catch on in the US. They had to be successful across the pond first.

[korbel16]

Cheers to another unexpected year ahead 🥂 . I wonder what the future top 10 will sound like. I doubt any songs released already will end up there

[mikerivera]

Biggest surprises in 2020 (based on 2019 expectations)
5. Blinding Lights becomes the biggest song of the year and breaks records for longevity (which had just been set by Circles earlier in 2020)
4. Australian wildfires are only a footnote in the year, and arguably aren’t even the biggest wildfires of the year
3. Trump’s impeachment is almost entirely forgotten about by the spring and has no effect on the election
2. Covid-19 becomes a global pandemic that completely upends every nation on earth and changes our entire way of life
1. Ava Max gets a second hit

[Deleted]

2021 Year End Predictions (Week 1)

Note: If this week ends up being part of the 2020 year end list, then I will remove it from this year's predictions.

1 Mood 34500

2 Positions 22000
3 I Hope 21000
4 Laugh Now Cry Later 20500
5 Blinding Lights 19000
6 Lemonade 18900
7 Holy 18000
8 Dakiti 17750
9 Savage Love 17500
10 For The Night 16500
11 WAP 16200
12 Hawai 15900
13 Go Crazy 15600
14 ROCKSTAR 15300
15 Kings & Queens 15000
16 Before You Go 14700
17 Dynamite 14400
18 Watermelon Sugar 14100
19 More Than My Hometown 13800
20 Be Like That 13500
21 Lonely 13300
22 Said Sum 13100
23 ily 12900
24 Bang! 12700
25 WHATS POPPIN 12500
26 Levitating 12300
27 Forever After All 12100
28 What You Know Bout Love 11900
29 One Of Them Girls 11700
30 34+35 11500
31 Love You Like I Used To 11350
32 Wonder 11200
33 One Beer 11050
34 Got What I Got 10900
35 Happy Anywhere 10600
36 Pretty Heart 10450
37 Better Together 10150
38 Diamonds 10000
39 Midnight Sky 9200
40 Starting Over 8400
41 I Should Probably Go To Bed 8200
42 You Broke Me First 8000
43 Mr. Right Now 7900
44 Franchise 7750
45 My Ex's Best Friend 7500
46 7 Summers 7200
47 Golden 6100
48 Heather 6050
49 Put Your Records On 5900
50 Therefore I Am 5300

[Harx]

Honestly I totally understand people who find Sweet but Psycho better but I lean towards Kings and Queens (and many new songs from the lp) partly because it feels like she found her own style with it. SbP will always be an earworm but it sounds like a Lady Gaga B-side from 2008

[gs]

TOTC's 2021 Year-End Predictions: Week 1/52

Done by Lukas , tanooki & I

NOTE: this is the real points estimate for this week, which is the same as the YE prediction, so it's the same image for this week.

[mikerivera]

That’s crazy that only the top 4 songs have 20k points. And even then, 2-4 only barely cross that threshold. I Hope probably rises to #2 next week just by default

[lukulele]

Polo G's gonna have a #1 this year I'll put money on it.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Obviously the number one this year is going to be My Agenda by Dorian Electra, with Mr. Kill Myself by Sewerslvt being close at number two

[Groovy]

I see that radio is pushing Prisoner when it's released but Midnight Sky won't get the time of day.

[spoons]

Nov 17, 2020 18:09:53 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Biggest surprises in 2020 (based on 2019 expectations)
5. Blinding Lights becomes the biggest song of the year and breaks records for longevity (which had just been set by Circles earlier in 2020)
4. Australian wildfires are only a footnote in the year, and arguably aren’t even the biggest wildfires of the year
3. Trump’s impeachment is almost entirely forgotten about by the spring and has no effect on the election
2. Covid-19 becomes a global pandemic that completely upends every nation on earth and changes our entire way of life
1. Ava Max gets a second hit

how was ava max a surprise. It seems Europe is very kind to its budding hitmakers (Dua, Capaldi). America just picks up a tiktok rapper and drops them right after (Arizona Zervas, Staysolidrocky)

[Deleted]

Nov 19, 2020 13:53:10 GMT -5 spoons said:

Nov 17, 2020 18:09:53 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Biggest surprises in 2020 (based on 2019 expectations)
5. Blinding Lights becomes the biggest song of the year and breaks records for longevity (which had just been set by Circles earlier in 2020)
4. Australian wildfires are only a footnote in the year, and arguably aren’t even the biggest wildfires of the year
3. Trump’s impeachment is almost entirely forgotten about by the spring and has no effect on the election
2. Covid-19 becomes a global pandemic that completely upends every nation on earth and changes our entire way of life
1. Ava Max gets a second hit

how was ava max a surprise. It seems Europe is very kind to its budding hitmakers (Dua, Capaldi). America just picks up a tiktok rapper and drops them right after (Arizona Zervas, Staysolidrocky)

Kings & Queens if you pay attention its chart run and its performance on all metrics is what we call a sleeper hit my dear
Especially considering that her only other songs sent to Pop didn't do so hot with So Am I flopping and Slow Dance doing ok at best

They also kinda stopped trying for after So Am I until they decided to push Kings & Queens due to it showing interest on streaming and sales, nearly 2 years after Sweet But Psycho
No one also really expected it to creep its way up the charts due to again everything post SBP not doing well and the general sound of Europop tracks haven't been too huge in the US but is big in the international markets.

I know this probably more than anyone else since I been tracking its US chart performance since before it got pushed as a single pretty regularly

[mikerivera]

Just to help show how weak the current charts are, here is what the top 10 looked like in July 16, 2011, which is before streaming was even part of the formula
1. Party Rock Anthem 34,000 ($-259k; R-115m)
2. Give Me Everything 31,091 ($-192k; R-150m)
3. Rolling in the Deep 28,181 ($-150k; R-160m)
4. Last Friday Night 26,364 ($-206k; R-84m)
5. Super Bass 23,323 ($-169k; R-87m)
6. The Edge of Glory 19,677 ($-118k; R-96m)
7. E.T. 18,454 ($-94k; R-109m)
8. How to Love 16,909 ($-128k; R-58m)
9. Good Life 15,455 ($-111k; R-59m)
10. Tonight Tonight 15,273 ($-128k; R-40m)

And keep in mind that both radio and sales were valued significantly less in the formula than they are today. If you were to use the current formula, Party Rock Anthem would have over 70k points. And despite that, the top 8 is still stronger than it is this week in the year of our Lord 2020

[atg]

The top 5 will definitely make the year end list already, as the trend keeps following (not counting debuts or one time gains from previous years around this time)

[Harx]

How do you all see Prisoner impacting Levitating's chances at making it this year?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 20, 2020 8:45:27 GMT -5 Harx said:

How do you all see Prisoner impacting Levitating's chances at making it this year?

Prisoner is Miley's song so how would it impact Levitating at all?

Besides Levitating still has solid streaming on Spotify and is still rising on airplay. It's safe

[Harx]

Nov 20, 2020 9:45:15 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Nov 20, 2020 8:45:27 GMT -5 Harx said:

How do you all see Prisoner impacting Levitating's chances at making it this year?

Prisoner is Miley's song

Good point. I bet that it would tank Levitating if the song was exactly the same, just with reverse credit (Dua ft Miley). Or had no Miley on it at all lol

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 20, 2020 10:08:12 GMT -5 Harx said:

Nov 20, 2020 9:45:15 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Prisoner is Miley's song

Good point. I bet that it would tank Levitating if the song was exactly the same, just with reverse credit (Dua ft Miley). Or had no Miley on it at all lol

Even if Dua had a main credit, it's more likely that it would tank and not Levitating. Usually the first single cannibalizes all the streams and airplay off a quick follow-up

[xtynaaguilera99]

Hey guys, does anybody know how can Mediabase radio numbers be recalibrated into Billboard’s airplay numbers?

[54generation]

I really hope the 2021 Billboard Year End will not have too many leftover hits from the 2020 Billboard Year End. I recalled back in 2016 and 2018, those two year end lists have an excessive amount of leftover hits from 2015 and 2017 respectively, which feels kinda irrelevant by the time the year end lists came out. Also, I'm not sure why but it seems like the 2000s year end lists have less songs in general that make 2 year end lists. (Most of them having around 5-6 songs that make 2 year end lists, while nowadays there's usually at least 8 or more songs that make 2 year end lists. In 2016 and 2018's case, over 12! (I believe) )

[Groovy]

Nov 20, 2020 11:44:29 GMT -5 54generation said:

I really hope the 2021 Billboard Year End will not have too many leftover hits from the 2020 Billboard Year End. I recalled back in 2016 and 2018, those two year end lists have an excessive amount of leftover hits from 2015 and 2017 respectively, which feels kinda irrelevant by the time the year end lists came out. Also, I'm not sure why but it seems like the 2000s year end lists have less songs in general that make 2 year end lists. (Most of them having around 5-6 songs that make 2 year end lists, while nowadays there's usually at least 8 or more songs that make 2 year end lists. In 2016 and 2018's case, over 12! (I believe) )

2008 had a lot carry overs from 2007, No One, Apologize, Crank That, Big Girls Don't Cry, Paralyzer, Teardrops on My Guitar, The Way I Are, Cyclone, and Kiss Kiss come to mind. 

[mikerivera]

Nov 20, 2020 11:44:29 GMT -5 54generation said:

I really hope the 2021 Billboard Year End will not have too many leftover hits from the 2020 Billboard Year End. I recalled back in 2016 and 2018, those two year end lists have an excessive amount of leftover hits from 2015 and 2017 respectively, which feels kinda irrelevant by the time the year end lists came out. Also, I'm not sure why but it seems like the 2000s year end lists have less songs in general that make 2 year end lists. (Most of them having around 5-6 songs that make 2 year end lists, while nowadays there's usually at least 8 or more songs that make 2 year end lists. In 2016 and 2018's case, over 12! (I believe) )

Blame Billboard for cutting the year off in November. It’s the difference between songs like Believer and Mi Gente getting 12 and 11 weeks in 2018 vs 8 & 7 weeks, the latter of which feels way more accurate and would keep them from getting in over actual 2018 hits like I’m a Mess and Broken. I don’t even like either of those two, but they definitely felt like bigger songs in 2018, and the numbers would reflect that with a better cutoff. I’m not against carryovers (Havana, Rockstar and Perfect were all defining hits of both 2017 and 2018), but just make sure they actually deserve their spots.

[Groovy]

Next week’s hot 100 is gonna be extremely hectic.

[sirskimask]

We're back in business baby!

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 1(?) (November 21, 2020)

Very Likely
Mood
I Hope
Laugh Now Cry Later
Blinding Lights

Likely
For the Night
WAP

Possible
Savage Love
Go Crazy
ROCKSTAR
Before You Go
Dynamite
Watermelon Sugar
Be Like That
ily
WHATS POPPIN

Unlikely
One Of Them Girls
The Woo
Got What I Want

Very Unlikely
Come & Go
Rags2Riches
Adore You
Roses
Mood Swings

Virtually No Chance
POPSTAR
Wishing Well


NOTE: Songs that are not locks for the 2020 YE list have not been included (More Than My Hometown, Said Sum, Lovin' On You, Lemonade). Should they make it onto the official list, I will begin including them from that point on. 
NOTE: I'm basing these odds on the assumption that Billboard will do what they did last year and allow songs that dropped out solely due to the flood of holiday music to re-enter. 

[kingvavis]

What are the odds we get a formula change this upcoming year?