2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[gikem]

Yeah, 2021 has been a lot messier and less consistent than 2020 was in terms of pop music. Not the worst year in recent memory by any means, but definitely overrated and with a lot more crap expected to make the YE than last year had.

Everyone and their mother has pointed this out already, but despite a few highlights, country in particular had a really rough year. I don’t blame anyone whose worst list is half country songs because a lot of those were just terrible. Hip-hop also had a bit of an off year, with not many truly terrible songs but also not a lot of great ones either. Pop, R&B, and the rock/alt-leaning songs mostly carried this otherwise alright year.

[Groovy]

I’ve been beating dead horse for some time but Morgan Wallen straight up destroyed country this year. Had he not blackballed, I would’ve had 7 Summers and Sand in My Boots on my best list. That said, other than country, this year was much better than 2020.

[kingvavis]

Here's what songs I think will make the 2022 YE List but not the 2021 list:

Cold Heart
Shivers
Easy On Me
Meet Me At Our Spot
Better Days

Are there anymore songs that should be included?

[joshtheking]

Nov 6, 2021 17:11:53 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Here's what songs I think will make the 2022 YE List but not the 2021 list:

Cold Heart
Shivers
Easy On Me
Meet Me At Our Spot
Better Days

Are there anymore songs that should be included?

That's What I Want, Love Nwantiti, Ghost

[gikem]

Nov 6, 2021 17:11:53 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Here's what songs I think will make the 2022 YE List but not the 2021 list:

Cold Heart
Shivers
Easy On Me
Meet Me At Our Spot
Better Days

Are there anymore songs that should be included?

Love Nwantiti and Til You Can't are two that I can see having sleeper runs.

There are others like My Universe, Ghost, Thats What I Want, Who Want Smoke, Buy Dirt, and Sand In My Boots that will need to depend on how well they hold up over the coming avalanche of holiday music. Either they will barely squeeze onto the 2022 YE or they'll get caught between years.

[Deleted]

Nov 6, 2021 6:38:29 GMT -5 gikem said:

Yeah, 2021 has been a lot messier and less consistent than 2020 was in terms of pop music. Not the worst year in recent memory by any means, but definitely overrated and with a lot more crap expected to make the YE than last year had.

"...definitely overrated".
I'm looking at you, Diamond Axe Studios.

[gikem]

Nov 6, 2021 18:33:51 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Nov 6, 2021 6:38:29 GMT -5 gikem said:

Yeah, 2021 has been a lot messier and less consistent than 2020 was in terms of pop music. Not the worst year in recent memory by any means, but definitely overrated and with a lot more crap expected to make the YE than last year had.

"...definitely overrated".
I'm looking at you, Diamond Axe Studios.

It's not just him, a lot of his disciples who make pop music-related videos are saying the same thing and I just don't agree with them to the same extent.

[inverse]

Tbh my biggest problem with 2021 is how middle of the road it felt. 2020 was such a colorful explosion of ideas & sounds we'd never heard before but so many big hits this year feels like it could have been a hit in 2014 & so much of them are by artists who were already A listers making songs that are good but not classics within their discography. Also the fact that Doja Cat was the 2nd biggest pop star of the year is a really bad sign

[algo]

^^ i agree with most of inverse says there. there wasn't anything too exciting about this year & everyone kinda did exactly what we expected them to do; spare billie's "happier than ever"

disagree about doja, she was a bright spot for me and her hits each perfectly capture the sound of the year

[joshtheking]

Nov 6, 2021 21:06:32 GMT -5 algo said:

^^ i agree with most of inverse says there. there wasn't anything too exciting about this year & everyone kinda did exactly what we expected them to do; spare billie's "happier than ever"

disagree about doja, she was a bright spot for me and her hits each perfectly capture the sound of the year

Or maybe we just like the music lol. Even without HTE, using the predicted year end I'm gonna have about 30+ songs in my Great Tier

[korbel16]

Stay will probably be in the top 10 for 2022

[Groovy]

Honestly, even if Happier Than Ever doesn’t make it this year, it has a good chance to make it next year.

[mikerivera]

As far as years go, I'd say 2021 is an 8. About on par with 2019, and a step down from 2020. Certainly less exciting than last year, but there's still plenty of songs I'll return to in the future, and not an abundance of bad or terrible songs. For context, I'd say
2020-9
2019-8
2018-2
2017-6
2016-3
2015-9
2014-8
2013-5
2012-9
2011-8
2010-3
2009-5
2008-7
2007-5
2006-3
2005-5
2004-9

[twelvevinylrecords]

Nov 6, 2021 6:38:29 GMT -5 gikem said:

Yeah, 2021 has been a lot messier and less consistent than 2020 was in terms of pop music. Not the worst year in recent memory by any means, but definitely overrated and with a lot more crap expected to make the YE than last year had.

Everyone and their mother has pointed this out already, but despite a few highlights, country in particular had a really rough year. I don’t blame anyone whose worst list is half country songs because a lot of those were just terrible. Hip-hop also had a bit of an off year, with not many truly terrible songs but also not a lot of great ones either. Pop, R&B, and the rock/alt-leaning songs mostly carried this otherwise alright year.

2021 and 2020 are close to equal to me. Like I just pulled up the 2020 YE and although the top 50 is really good, the bottom 50 is equal to/slightly worse than 2021's. Suicidal, Popstar, Party Girl, Only Human, Yummy? I'll pass

Edit: I also find that overall the bottom half tends to be a lot worse than the top half of the YE. This is very interesting to me

[nathanalbright]

What do you think it indicates?

[joshtheking]

oh so NOW Drunk (AIDWGH) is gaining on country radio after it already dropped out... Even if it somehow managed to re-enter the Hot 100 if it got enough traction, it's too late as it would end up getting caught between years

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^We'll see if it manages to do enough to re-enter. Although, it probably need to be in the top 50 to do so. That's what happened with a few Dan + Shay songs that managed to re-enter after their original chart runs.

[gikem]

Nov 8, 2021 9:15:41 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

oh so NOW Drunk (AIDWGH) is gaining on country radio after it already dropped out... Even if it somehow managed to re-enter the Hot 100 if it got enough traction, it's too late as it would end up getting caught between years

I’m very pissed at Billboard for cutting off Drunk’s chart run the week that it did, which would’ve been the week it clinched its YE spot. I’d get it if it were bleeding on every radio format, but country radio was clearly still pushing it. AND it’s still charting on Hot Country and Hot Rock/Alt to date. This has to be one of the biggest snubs of a song from a YE in recent memory.

[joshtheking]

Nov 8, 2021 11:08:39 GMT -5 gikem said:

Nov 8, 2021 9:15:41 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

oh so NOW Drunk (AIDWGH) is gaining on country radio after it already dropped out... Even if it somehow managed to re-enter the Hot 100 if it got enough traction, it's too late as it would end up getting caught between years

I’m very pissed at Billboard for cutting off Drunk’s chart run the week that it did, which would’ve been the week it clinched its YE spot. I’d get it if it were bleeding on every radio format, but country radio was clearly still pushing it. AND it’s still charting on Hot Country and Hot Rock/Alt to date. This has to be one of the biggest snubs of a song from a YE in recent memory.

Hate to be a phieagles but it sucks even more considering One Too Many avoided recurrency for 10+ weeks

[nathanalbright]

Fourteen weeks to be precise, yes.

[Abbaschand]

Ladies and gentlemen, may I present to you...my predictions of

BILLBOARD YEAR-END HOT 100 SINGLES OF 2021
Scenario 1
(November 21, 2020 - November 13, 2021)

As usual, my sh*tty point system
No. Points
1 10
2-3 9
4-5 8
6-10 7
11-15 6
16-20 5.5
21-25 5
26-30 4.5
31-40 4
41-50 3.5
51-60 3
61-70 2.5
71-80 2
81-90 1.5
91-100 1

1 Dua Lipa - Levitating 371
2 The Weeknd - Save Your Tears (feat. Ariana Grande) 297
3 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 274
4 24kGoldn - Mood (feat. Iann Dior) 256
5 Silk Sonic (Bruno X Anderson) - Leave the Door Open 231.5
6 Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 219.5
7 Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me by Your Name) 214.5
8 Olivia Rodrigo - Good 4 U 205
9 Olivia Rodrigo - Driver's License 202
10 Justin Bieber - Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon) 199
11 Ariana Grande - positions 178.5
12 Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 177.5
13 Glass Animals - Heat Waves 172
14 The Kid LAROI - Without You 167
15 Luke Combs - Forever After All 165.5
16 Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy 164
17 Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love 162
18 Ariana Grande - 34+35 160
19 BTS - Butter 159.5
20 Masked Wolf - Astronaut In the Ocean 157.5
21 The Kid LAROI - Stay (feat. Justin Bieber) 156
22 MGK X Blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend 154.5
23 Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 150
24 Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am 142.5
25 Saweetie - Best Friend (feat. Doja Cat) 142
26 Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez - Dakiti 139
27 Giveon - Heartbreak Anniversary 137
28 Cardi B - Up 135.5
29 Pop Smoke - For the Night (feat. Lil Baby and DaBaby) 133
30 Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 131.5
31 Polo G - Rapstar 126
32 Lil Nas X - Industry Baby (feat. Jack Harlow) 121.5
33 Lil Tjay - Calling My Phone (feat. 6LACK) 120.5
34 Maroon 5 - Beautiful Mistakes (feat. Megan Thee Stallion) 117
35 Justin Bieber - Holy (feat. Chance the Rapper) 114
36 Tate McRae - You Broke Me First 112
37 Lil Baby - On Me 111.5
38 Olivia Rodrigo - Traitor 111
39 Gabby Barrett - I Hope 106.5
40 Pooh Shiesty - Back In Blood (feat. Lil Durk) 106.5
41 Moneybagg Yo - Wockesha 106.5
42 Doja Cat - You Right (feat. The Weeknd) 104
43 SpotemGottem - Beat Box (feat. Pooh Shiesty or DaBaby) 101.5
44 BTS - Dynamite 101
45 Doja Cat - Need to Know 100.5
46 Drake - Laugh Now Cry Later (feat. Lil Durk) 99
47 SZA - Good Days 97.5
48 Drake - Wants and Needs (feat. Lil Baby) 94
49 Kali Uchis - Telepatia 94
50 CJ - Whoopty 92
51 Internet Money - Lemonade (feat. Don Toliver, NAV, and Gunna) 90.5
52 DJ Khaled - Every Chance I Get (feat. Lil Baby and Lil Durk) 89
53 Luke Combs - Better Together 88.5
54 Yung Bleu - You're Mines Still (feat. Drake) 88.5
55 Marshmello X Jonas Brothers - Leave Before You Love Me 88.5
56 AJR - Bang! 88
57 Chris Stapleton - Starting Over 87.5
58 WizKid - Essence (feat. Tems and Justin Bieber) 86
59 Taylor Swift - Willow 85
60 Megan Thee Stallion - Body 85
61 Maneskin - Beggin' 85
62 Ryan Hurd - Chasing After You (feat. Maren Morris) 83.5
63 Gabby Barrett - The Good Ones 81
64 Justin Bieber - Lonely (feat. Benny Blanco) 79.5
65 Doja Cat - Streets 78.5
66 Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 78
67 Megan Thee Stallion - Thot 77.5
68 Dan + Shay - Glad You Exist 77
69 Chris Young & Kane Brown - Famous Friends 75.5
70 Nelly - Lil Bit (feat. Florida Georgia Line) 74.5
71 Drake - Way 2 Sexy (feat. Future and Young Thug) 73
72 Justin Bieber - Anyone 69
73 Jason Aldean - If I Didn't Love You (feat. Carrie Underwood) 68
74 Ava Max - Kings & Queens 67.5
75 Moneybagg Yo - Time Today 67.5
76 Drake - What's Next 66.5
77 Thomas Rhett - What's Your Country Song 66.5
78 Mooski - Track Star 65.5
79 Coi Leray - No More Parties (feat. Lil Durk) 65
80 The Weeknd - Take My Breath 64.5
81 Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 64.5
82 Megan Thee Stallion - Cry Baby (feat. DaBaby) 64
83 Bad Bunny - Yonaguni 63
84 Niko Moon - Good Time 62
85 Duncan Laurence - Arcade 61.5
86 Ariana Grande - POV 60.5
87 Parmalee X Blanco Brown - Just the Way 60
88 Farruko - Pepas 59
89 Drake - Knife Talk (feat. 21 Savage and Project Pat) 58.5
90 Dua Lipa - We're Good 58
91 Keith Urban - One Too Many (feat. P!nk) 58
92 BRS Kash - Go Baby 57.5
93 Chase Rice - Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (feat. FGL) 57
94 Eric Church - Hell of a View 57
95 Cole Swindell - Single Saturday Night 56.5
96 Lainey Wilson - Things a Man Oughta Know 56.5
97 Rauw Alejandro - Todo de Ti 56.5
98 Travis Scott - Goosebumps (feat. HVME) 56.5
99 Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On 56
100 Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You 55.5

101 Tai Verdes - A-O-K 55
102 DaBaby - Rockstar (feat. Roddy Ricch) 54.5
103 BIA - Whole Lotta Money (feat. Nicki Minaj) 54
104 Miranda Lambert - Settling Down 54
105 Sam Hunt - Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's 53.5
106 H.E.R. - Damage 53.5
107 Rod Wave - Tombstone 53
108 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 53
109 Jameson Rodgers - Cold Beer Calling My Name 52.5
110 Dierks Bentley - Gone 52.5
111 Drake - Girls Want Girls (feat. Lil Baby) 51.5
112 Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown 51.5
113 Luke Bryan - Down to One 51.5
114 Ed Sheeran - Shivers 51
115 Normani - Wild Side (feat. Cardi B) 50.5
116 Elle King & Miranda Lambert - Drunk 50.5
117 Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 50

There you go, folks. My predictions for the year. Levitating will be the 4th song to be the #1 of the year, without hitting #1 on the weekly charts (3rd one this century!).

Oh, and if you guys were wondering, Easy On Me is 32.5. So it might make an appearance in my 54-week predictions!

Well, see ya next week!

[Deleted]

Nice year end predictions, here's mine

Final Week

Bubbling under section

SPOILER: Click to show

{101-125}1532 Drunk (AIDWGH) By Elle King (Miranda Lambert) 101
1523 Goosebumps By HVME (Travis Scott) 102
1523 Gone By Dierks Bentley 103
1513 Almost Maybes By Jordan Davis 104
1508 Wasted On You By Morgan Wallen 105
1508 Pepas By Farruko 106
1500 Settling Down By Miranda Lambert 107
1481 Cold Beer Calling My Name By Jameson Rodgers (Luke Combs) 108
1477 Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's By Sam Hunt 109
1475 A-O-K By Tai Verdes 110
1456 Made For You By Jake Owen 111
1455 Girls Want Girls By Drake (Lil Baby) 112
1447 Down To One By Luke Bryan 113
1446 Damage By H.E.R. 114
1446 ROCKSTAR By DaBaby (Roddy Ricch) 115
1438 Whole Lotta Money By BIA (Nicki Minaj) 116
1432 Shivers By Ed Sheeran 117
1418 Country Again By Thomas Rhett 118
1415 Easy On Me By Adele 119
1377 Before You Go By Lewis Capaldi 120
1368 Waves By Luke Bryan 121
1359 I Was On A Boat That Day By Old Dominion 122
1357 Wild Side By Normani (Cardi B) 123
1346 m y . l i f e By J. Cole (21 Savage & Morray) 124
1334 More Than My Hometown By Morgan Wallen 125

[gikem]

I get that most of us (myself included) are expecting this to be the last week of the 2021 tracking year, but if you’re making predictions, I would recommend also making a 53-week prediction that includes next week’s chart in case Billboard decides to do that this year. It’s unlikely, but you never know.

[mikerivera]

So we got all 3 of the Halloween hits from 1984 to rechart, with Thriller in the top 20. I change my mind, 2021 is the best year ever

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 9, 2021 7:33:17 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

So we got all 3 of the Halloween hits from 1984 to rechart, with Thriller in the top 20. I change my mind, 2021 is the best year ever

But since those hits all made the 1984 Year End chart, doesn't that make 1984 the best year ever?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Looks like "Take My Breath" and "Happier Than Ever" are a coin flip on whether making the Billboard Hot 100 YE or not. Personally, I would love both to sneak in.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Well Happier than Ever and Take My Breath both (probably) made it so thankfully this isn't another Lover situation

[Abbaschand]

Nov 9, 2021 7:29:55 GMT -5 gikem said:

I get that most of us (myself included) are expecting this to be the last week of the 2021 tracking year, but if you’re making predictions, I would recommend also making a 53-week prediction that includes next week’s chart in case Billboard decides to do that this year. It’s unlikely, but you never know.

Don't worry. 53-week is on the paper.

[Groovy]

Nov 15, 2020 12:25:34 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Nov 15, 2020 11:48:11 GMT -5 GP said:

Will Dua, Harry and Abel still dominate!! ahh a new year with lots to come!

I'm upset that Physical didn't become a hit but at least we have Levitating climbing the charts as for Harry, Golden will be the next hit off of Fine Line which I'm all and The Weeknd, I was hoping In Your Eyes would be bigger and Save Your Tears would be hit but they weren't. He'll another hit when it's 2025 and they stop pushing Blinding Lights. 

I love how bad this aged. 

[nathanalbright]

Lots of good hot takes about this year's hits.