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Post by blanksnake17 on Jan 8, 2021 16:43:04 GMT -5
Feels good to see this finding success when many thought it would be a flash in the pan or illegitimatized "hit". It certainly feels unexpected, but I'm not complaining! The last year and these two albums have done such miraculous things for Taylor's career. Feel so proud of our girl. If she wins album of the year, coupled with this pair of masterful albums, it will be the personal highlight of her career for me. I agree, it would be her career peak by far. I am definitely very surprised willow is managing to become a nice hit, but very happy for her!
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Post by Envoirment on Jan 8, 2021 17:20:15 GMT -5
This is catchier than "Cardigan" which I think is helping. Not to mention the Elvira remix is really good. I hope this becomes a long running hit for Taylor!
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Post by Choco on Jan 8, 2021 17:38:34 GMT -5
POP:24 22 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 4774 4069 705 20.788 +183 Spins +135 Bullet +0.758 Audience "cardigan" at the same point, unless I mixed the dates: POP: 18 17 TAYLOR SWIFT cardigan 5151 4754 397 21.623
+21 Spins -30 Bullet -0.001 AudienceHard to compare due to Xmas, but it's doing about the same. Still not convinced it's not gonna hit the invisible wall her last few releases hit.
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 8, 2021 21:21:39 GMT -5
POP:24 22 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 4774 4069 705 20.788 +183 Spins +135 Bullet +0.758 Audience "cardigan" at the same point, unless I mixed the dates: POP: 18 17 TAYLOR SWIFT cardigan 5151 4754 397 21.623
+21 Spins -30 Bullet -0.001 AudienceHard to compare due to Xmas, but it's doing about the same. Still not convinced it's not gonna hit the invisible wall her last few releases hit.There are more important metrics outside of radio (streaming/downloads for instance) and that is where the clear difference between "Willow" and "Cardigan" in terms of performance at similar points is clear and to me is a much bigger indication of how this song is being recieved better than "Cardigan". It may be fairing similarly on radio, but the differences in other metrics are pretty notable and bode well for "Willow".
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Jan 8, 2021 22:06:29 GMT -5
I’m so surprised cardigan didn’t hit harder in September/October. It just fits the season so damn well. Still love that song though.
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aussie1
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Post by aussie1 on Jan 9, 2021 3:45:25 GMT -5
On paper this is doing better then Cardigan but I think numbers wise they are pretty neck and neck. Though if this does end up doing better then Cardigan that would just be criminal.
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Post by kimberly on Jan 9, 2021 5:11:57 GMT -5
On paper this is doing better then Cardigan but I think numbers wise they are pretty neck and neck. Though if this does end up doing better then Cardigan that would just be criminal. units from Rolling Stone Charts: "willow"
week 1: 249.2K week 2: 105.1K week 3: 81.2K week 4: 64.5K 4-week total: 500.0K "cardigan"
week 1: 255.8K week 2: 128.6K week 3: 89.5K week 4: 69.7K 4-week total: 543.6K so at the end of their first month, "cardigan" seems to be 43.6K units ahead of "willow." however, "willow" is ahead in terms of chart placement, suggesting that while "cardigan" was consumed more, "willow" held up better against other releases. this essentially proves what I was thinking: "willow" benefits from the calm-after-xmas-storm moment. in a couple weeks, I expect it to catch up to where "cardigan" was on the charts during its run or perhaps fall behind it.
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 5:19:41 GMT -5
"Calm after the storm moment"? Lol What is this? If anything the Christmas/New Year's freeze is typically more of a hindrance than a benefit for most songs.
"Cardigan" also benefited from the novelty of Taylor's first surprise release and shift in sound. That first week alone was what 70k sold?
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Post by kimberly on Jan 9, 2021 5:26:38 GMT -5
"Calm after the storm moment"? Lol What is this? "Cardigan" also benefited from the novelty of Taylor's first surprise release and shift in sound. That first week alone was what 70k sold? let's not play stupid. for the past month, there have been very, very few major single releases by popular acts, very few opportunities for songs from relatively unknown artists to break through and few songs being promoted to radio. this obviously allows songs to rebound to where they were before the holiday storm. so "willow"s current chart placements reflects more "where it would have been in its second week had it not been pushed down 37 spots by holiday tunes" and less "where it is after a month of competitive releases and a thriving market".
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 5:31:38 GMT -5
"Calm after the storm moment"? Lol What is this? "Cardigan" also benefited from the novelty of Taylor's first surprise release and shift in sound. That first week alone was what 70k sold? let's not play stupid. for the past month, there have been very, very few major single releases by popular acts, very few opportunities for songs from relatively unknown artists to break through and few songs being promoted to radio. this obviously allows songs to rebound to where they were before the holiday storm. so "willow"s current chart placements reflects more "where it would have been in its second week had it not been pushed down 37 spots by holiday tunes" and less "where it is after a month of competitive releases and a thriving market". Uh, not playing stupid. Firstly, Taylor hasn't been a major radio draw in years outside of intial spins which only goes so far. Radio isn't clamoring to play her new material on name alone and for years I have been watching the "freeze" kill songs. It's typically a toss up which ones survive or thrive and there gave been many taht've failed to bounce back once that period thaws. This is legitimately the first time I have ever seen someone championing the year-end freeze as a huge benefit to a song's chart performance.
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jan 9, 2021 6:28:17 GMT -5
POP: 24 22 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 4862 4185 677 21.048
+88 Spins -28 Bullet +0.260 Audience
HOT AC: 16 15 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 2212 1805 407 10.762
+36 Spins -27 Bullet +0.019 Audience
AC: 26 22 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 114 94 20 2.576
+3 Spins -14 Bullet +0.049 Audience
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Post by Choco on Jan 9, 2021 10:45:59 GMT -5
"Calm after the storm moment"? Lol What is this? "Cardigan" also benefited from the novelty of Taylor's first surprise release and shift in sound. That first week alone was what 70k sold? let's not play stupid. for the past month, there have been very, very few major single releases by popular acts, very few opportunities for songs from relatively unknown artists to break through and few songs being promoted to radio. this obviously allows songs to rebound to where they were before the holiday storm. so "willow"s current chart placements reflects more "where it would have been in its second week had it not been pushed down 37 spots by holiday tunes" and less "where it is after a month of competitive releases and a thriving market". Yup. It's essentially only 60k streams ahead of "cardigan" in a way less competitive market, which is not the "omg legs" that this thread would make you believe. For example between Wallen Morgan and Olivia Rodrigo finally dropping some life into the charts it's probably gonna be way closer to "cardigan's" placement at this point in it's Spotify run. But let me step aside bc I'm not trying to rain on the Swiftie parade lol. If it carries on to hit-land, great!
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Post by neverduplicated on Jan 9, 2021 12:26:45 GMT -5
I also think it's too early to declare this will be more successful (or significantly more successful) than "Cardigan" but the numbers are still trending the right direction.
Day 29 US Spotify willow (#30) 626,529 - only low because of album bomb, cardigan (#27) 552,801 - there was only 1 debut that day Difference 73,728 (13% higher, hehe)
FYI folklore deluxe was released 25 days after release vs. 27 days for evermore, so I doubt that makes much of a difference, but maybe it does. Really it's the global streams where willow is doing significantly better than cardigan, but I do realize this thread is more about US performance
Day 29 global Spotify willow (#25) 2,074,136 cardigan (#49) 1,598,750 Difference 475,386 (30% difference)
Also just read willow is up to #7 on UK airplay which kind of blows my mind.
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 13:19:50 GMT -5
I also think it's too early to declare this will be more successful (or significantly more successful) than "Cardigan", but the numbers are still trending the right direction. This is literally all that is being said in this thread. No one said "Willow" is bigger than "Cardigan" overall at this point or will be hugely more successful. People are merely speaking comparatively of the two and taking note that it is doing better at this point respectively in their chart runs (in my case, better than I expected, hence why I said it was good to see it "finding success"). No one was saying it has huge legs already (like, what?) or is some out of the world smash, I have literally no idea where that is even coming from. Even I said I didn't expect this to outperform "Cardigan" on pop radio and wasn't convinced of any different with those intial updates, but I don't see what's not promising about its streaming figures, but ok? lol
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Post by neverduplicated on Jan 9, 2021 13:33:28 GMT -5
I also think it's too early to declare this will be more successful (or significantly more successful) than "Cardigan", but the numbers are still trending the right direction. This is literally all that is being said in this thread. No one said "Willow" is bigger than "Cardigan" overall at this point or will be hugely more successful. People are merely speaking comparatively of the two and taking note that it is doing better at this point respectively in their chart runs (in my case, better than I expected, hence why I said it was good to see it "finding success"). No one was saying it has huge legs already (like, what?) or is some out of the world smash, I have literally no idea where that is even coming from. Even I said I didn't expect this to outperform "Cardigan" on pop radio and wasn't convinced of any different with those intial updates, but I don't see what's not promising about its streaming figures, but ok? lol Yes, I agree that no one has declared this will outperform cardigan though some of us are suggesting it could (because it could), and I was not taking aim at you or anyone. I was just trying to further the conversation and say things are looking good for this song.
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 13:45:09 GMT -5
This is literally all that is being said in this thread. No one said "Willow" is bigger than "Cardigan" overall at this point or will be hugely more successful. People are merely speaking comparatively of the two and taking note that it is doing better at this point respectively in their chart runs (in my case, better than I expected, hence why I said it was good to see it "finding success"). No one was saying it has huge legs already (like, what?) or is some out of the world smash, I have literally no idea where that is even coming from. Even I said I didn't expect this to outperform "Cardigan" on pop radio and wasn't convinced of any different with those intial updates, but I don't see what's not promising about its streaming figures, but ok? lol Yes, I agree that no one has declared this will outperform cardigan though some of us are suggesting it could (because it could), and I was not taking aim at you or anyone. I was just trying to further the conversation and say things are looking good for this song. Oh for sure! I was only referencing you directly with the first line in my response (agreeing with what you were saying), the rest was moreso commentary on other discussions/comments going on in this thread, just in case you thought differently. Haha Apologies if it wasn't clear!
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Post by kimberly on Jan 9, 2021 15:09:17 GMT -5
let's not play stupid. for the past month, there have been very, very few major single releases by popular acts, very few opportunities for songs from relatively unknown artists to break through and few songs being promoted to radio. this obviously allows songs to rebound to where they were before the holiday storm. so "willow"s current chart placements reflects more "where it would have been in its second week had it not been pushed down 37 spots by holiday tunes" and less "where it is after a month of competitive releases and a thriving market". Uh, not playing stupid. Firstly, Taylor hasn't been a major radio draw in years outside of intial spins which only goes so far. Radio isn't clamoring to play her new material on name alone and for years I have been watching the "freeze" kill songs. It's typically a toss up which ones survive or thrive and there gave been many taht've failed to bounce back once that period thaws. This is legitimately the first time I have ever seen someone championing the year-end freeze as a huge benefit to a song's chart performance. Sis you literally just said so I am talking about non-radio components to explain how "willow" really isn't "clearly better received" or "notably doing better" than "cardigan." Sorry to burst your bubble.
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Post by blanksnake17 on Jan 9, 2021 15:44:07 GMT -5
I think it’s notably doing better on streaming.
Using “oh but the numbers are low !11!!!!!!” okay? it’s still out-charting a ton of songs that are so-called “big hits” no one thinks that Mood is a flop because it has never had as many points as ME!. So? I don’t get the argument.
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Post by kimberly on Jan 9, 2021 15:53:46 GMT -5
I think it’s notably doing better on streaming. Using “oh but the numbers are low !11!!!!!!” okay? it’s still out-charting a ton of songs that are so-called “big hits” no one thinks that Mood is a flop because it has never had as many points as ME!. So? I don’t get the argument. aside from the fact that "Mood" is a multi-week number-one and "ME!" is... a glorified nursery rhyme at best that tumbled down the charts in virtually every country—the point is that "willow" isn't doing "notably better" because it literally isn't? after its historic fall, it was destined to rebound with holiday songs leaving, much like anything else on the charts. "Mood" is currently holding on to #1 with pretty low numbers too, so I would also say that its number of weeks at #1 is inflated by how weak the top of the Hot 100 is right now. let's come back to this discussion in a couple of weeks but I'm just warning y'all so you aren't disappointed.
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Post by blanksnake17 on Jan 9, 2021 18:15:20 GMT -5
I think it’s notably doing better on streaming. Using “oh but the numbers are low !11!!!!!!” okay? it’s still out-charting a ton of songs that are so-called “big hits” no one thinks that Mood is a flop because it has never had as many points as ME!. So? I don’t get the argument. aside from the fact that "Mood" is a multi-week number-one and "ME!" is... a glorified nursery rhyme at best that tumbled down the charts in virtually every country—the point is that "willow" isn't doing "notably better" because it literally isn't? after its historic fall, it was destined to rebound with holiday songs leaving, much like anything else on the charts. "Mood" is currently holding on to #1 with pretty low numbers too, so I would also say that its number of weeks at #1 is inflated by how weak the top of the Hot 100 is right now. let's come back to this discussion in a couple of weeks but I'm just warning y'all so you aren't disappointed. I respect your opinion, I just think it is good to note how much better it is doing position-wise than cardigan, and also it objectively is doing better WW by decent margins as well. I think either of us could be right, we’ll have to see.
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 18:49:05 GMT -5
so I am talking about non-radio components to explain how "willow" really isn't "clearly better received" or "notably doing better" than "cardigan." Sorry to burst your bubble. First, can we act like grown folk and drop the unneccessary condescending attitude? With all the "don't play dumb", "sis", and the like talk? Or are we incapable of discussing something without the cattiness? I already also remarked how "Cardigan" opened with like 70k and benefited from the novelty factor of Taylor's first surprise release and switch in sound. That was enough to pad the mere 40k difference for "Cardigan" I believe you referenced.
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Post by kimberly on Jan 9, 2021 18:53:15 GMT -5
so I am talking about non-radio components to explain how "willow" really isn't "clearly better received" or "notably doing better" than "cardigan." Sorry to burst your bubble. First, can we act like grown folk and drop the unneccessary condescending attitude? With all the "don't play dumb", "sis", and the like talk? Or are we incapable of discussing something without the cattiness? I already also remarked how "Cardigan" opened with like 70k and benefited from the novelty factor of Taylor's first surprise release and switch in sound. That was enough to pad the mere 40k difference for "Cardigan" I believe you referenced. oh my god every time I say something to you you turn back and call me condescending and catty. I'm done with this conversation.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Jan 9, 2021 18:58:33 GMT -5
First, can we act like grown folk and drop the unneccessary condescending attitude? With all the "don't play dumb", "sis", and the like talk? Or are we incapable of discussing something without the cattiness? I already also remarked how "Cardigan" opened with like 70k and benefited from the novelty factor of Taylor's first surprise release and switch in sound. That was enough to pad the mere 40k difference for "Cardigan" I believe you referenced. oh my god every time I say something to you you turn back and call me condescending and catty. I'm done with this conversation. Could you not have made your points without the "let's not play dumb", "sis", and all the like condescending type remarks? I think you could have. I call it condescending, because that is exactly how it comes across. I am fine with a difference of opinion or you expressing conflicting data/thoughts with my own, just find the quips unnecessary. I think what I have been actually saying about "Cardigan" vs "Willow" is being twisted into something I actually didn't say or even mean. When I speak of a "notable" difference in metrics outside of radio and speak of "Willow" performing better than "Cardigan" (at this point in their respective runs) I am speaking mostly of streaming/downloads and of a very specific frame of time (not overall performance). Let me be clear again since what I actually am saying: no, "Willow" has not out-performed "Cardigan" at this point, overall as stated their numbers are fairly similar. I am saying given how "Willow" is trending better than "Cardigan" in their respective 3rd and 4th weeks (as even the info Kim gave highlighted), it is a positive indication that it very well *may* have the potential to be more successful in the long run. That it *could* be bigger, hence why I said the numbers bode well for it. "Willow" could also fall off at any point and that would be that. More or less I was just taking note of how well the song is doing on streaming and how caught off guard I was as I certainly didn't expect to see it anywhere near top 10 on Spotify when I checked this thread the other day as her singles typically drop a lot quicker.
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Post by Positive Tension on Jan 9, 2021 19:53:29 GMT -5
I think "Cardigan" is the better song overall, but "Willow" is more radio-friendly, imo. They both sound more like third or fourth singles, but it would be nice if "Willow" could end up being the sleeper hit "Cardigan" couldn't be.
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Jan 9, 2021 22:37:58 GMT -5
blanksnake17 is right, we should be comparing the songs position-wise, because streaming habits change, and so do the actual numbers. And in absolute terms, willow is still doing better than cardigan. I don’t even think this will outperform cardigan on radio, but you can’t deny that its streaming is superior.
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Post by theflying on Jan 10, 2021 0:48:34 GMT -5
It’s amazing how you can just wait another two-three weeks and find out definitively!
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jan 10, 2021 6:11:56 GMT -5
Top 20 on pop and AC!
POP: 23 20 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 5027 4263 764 21.727
+165 Spins +87 Bullet +0.679 Audience
HOT AC: 16 15 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 2257 1980 277 11.098
+45 Spins -130 Bullet +0.336 Audience
AC: 22 20 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 120 104 16 2.608
+6 Spins -4 Bullet +0.032 Audience
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Post by itsaboutart on Jan 10, 2021 7:14:09 GMT -5
This feels magical in the way ‘delicate’ did to me.
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Post by JessieLou on Jan 10, 2021 20:01:22 GMT -5
I like this one a lot! I prefer it over the Folklore singles but I did like those too.
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jan 10, 2021 21:44:42 GMT -5
Officially becomes another top 20 for Taylor on pop radio! SUNDAY PUBLISHED UPDATE (1/10):POP:23 19 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 5028 4263 765 21.729 {Taylor Swifts Top 40/M peaks to date:}#1: "I Knew You Were Trouble." (x6) #1: "Bad Blood" (x6) (Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar) #1: "Blank Space" (x5) #1: "Style" (x3) #1: "Shake It Off" (x2) #1: "Wildest Dreams" (x2) #1: "Love Story" (x1) #1: "You Belong With Me" (x1) #1: "Look What You Made Me Do" (x1) #1: "Delicate" (x1) #2: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" #2: "I Don't Wanna Live Forever" (ZAYN & Taylor Swift) #6: "ME!" (Taylor Swift feat. Brendon Urie of Panic! at the Disco) #7: "Teardrops On My Guitar" #7: "Two Is Better Than One" (Boys Like Girls feat. Taylor Swift) #9: "You Need to Calm Down" #10: "22" #10: "End Game" (Taylor Swift feat. Ed Sheeran & Future) #11: "Mine" #11: "...Ready for It?" #12: "Fifteen" #12: "Back to December" #13: "Everything Has Changed" (Taylor Swift feat. Ed Sheeran) #13: "Out of the Woods" #14: "Lover" #16: "New Romantics" #17: "cardigan" #19: "Our Song" #19: "Today Was a Fairytale" #19: "willow" #20: "Eyes Open" #20: "The Man" #21: "The Story of Us" #22: "Both of Us" (B.o.B. feat. Taylor Swift) #45: "Gorgeous" *not an official radio single #49: "Christmas Tree Farm" Chart run: 41-28-24-23- 19- HOT AC:16 15 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 2257 1980 277 11.098 Chart run: 34-20-18-16- 15- AC:22 20 TAYLOR SWIFT willow 120 104 16 2.608 Chart run: 22- 20- HOT AC:49 46 TAYLOR SWIFT exile f/Bon Iver 76 64 12 0.539 Chart run: 48-49-x-x-49-48-48-46-47-50-x-x-48-45-45- 44-46-47-50-49-46- AC:18 22 TAYLOR SWIFT cardigan 105 137 -32 0.223 Chart run: 25-17-18-15-14-13- 12- 12- 12- 12-15-16-15-15-15-20-27-34-41-x-44-x-18-22-
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