Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 12:26:00 GMT -5
Based on a methodology made up by someone trying to merge consumption methods. there is absolutely no way 85 percent of every song listened to in the US was done on streaming. Not a chance. Lol, okay. Seriously though. Do some napkin math. It's impossible. I know the hate for radio and I get it. But like it or not even in decline it still pulls in huge listener numbers.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 28, 2020 12:28:14 GMT -5
Bieber is doing a T-Mobile livestream concert on the New Year's Eve. Non-customers have to pay $25 to access. Bud Light will have a concert (it seems to be free but you need to RSVP) that same night that includes Post Malone.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 12:33:43 GMT -5
^Hell, I'd even say Latin genres like reggaeton has a better chance on streaming than pop. Pop rarely does good on streaming with the exception of a few (Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Ed Sheeran and Ariana Grande).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 12:35:49 GMT -5
^Hell, I'd even say Latin genres like reggaeton has a better chance on streaming than pop. Pop rarely does good on streaming with the exception of a few (Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Ed Sheeran and Ariana Grande). So if the fans of the pop genre are going to abandon radio, where do you think they will go to listen to their pop music?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 12:44:31 GMT -5
^Hell, I'd even say Latin genres like reggaeton has a better chance on streaming than pop. Pop rarely does good on streaming with the exception of a few (Billie Eilish, Justin Bieber, Ed Sheeran and Ariana Grande). So if the fans of the pop genre are going to abandon radio, where do you think they will go to listen to their pop music? They can go to streaming but I don't see it taking over hip hop as the most dominant genre in that area.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 12:44:36 GMT -5
Based on a methodology made up by someone trying to merge consumption methods. there is absolutely no way 85 percent of every song listened to in the US was done on streaming. Not a chance. Lol, okay. Pick a week in July or August, before the XMas music invasion, and add up the Total streams for the top 20 songs. Then add up the radio audience top twenty. Radio will still have significantly more millions of listens.
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strongerq
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Post by strongerq on Dec 28, 2020 14:34:58 GMT -5
OK since i have seen some really bad ways of comparing consumption. Some say that more songs in the Year-End top 10 are pop ? - So what. You can have the whole top 100 to be Pop, but songs 101 - 5,000 to be all Hip-Hop. I will ask the question which one is bigger ? - You will say Pop, which would be the "wrong" answer in the grand sceme of things. Nielsen provides the most consumed genres every year. This includes physical albums/digital albums/track sales & streams. The only thing missing is Radio. That puts Pop at dissadvantage. But that isn't the point of the post.
Here are 2015-2020. 2020 is Mid-Year. 2018 couldn't find it Year | Hip-Hop/R&B | Rock | Pop | Country | Latin | 2015 | 18.2% | 24.5% | 15.7% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2016 | 22% | 29% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 2017 | 24.5% | 20.8% | 12.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2018 | 25.6% | . | . | . | . | 2019 | 27.7% | 19.8% | 14% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2020 | 28.4% | 19.3% | 13.3% | 8% | 4.4%
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To the new user: "Pop fans are switching to streaming from sales/radio" Well most already have switched from sales.
In 2017: 21% of the total Hip-Hop album units were from pure sales (11% Physical & 10% Digital) 27% of the total Pop album units were from pure sales (16% Physical & 11% Digital)
In 2020 (Mid-Year): 6% of the total Hip-Hop album units were from pure sales (3% Physical & 3% Digital) 9% of the total Pop album units were from pure sales (6% Physical & 3% Digital)
I won't add anything.
Regarding Radio, it has dropped in numbers every year. Take a look at the audiences. Like you said:
"If listeners will further abandon sales and radio, where will they go other than to streaming?" Since radio has been dropping and sales for both Hip-Hop & Pop are similar, we should notice changes on streaming.
But where ? - I am not seeing that. I see Pop stalling in numbers (ѕhit even declining a bit), while Hip-Hop which is supposed to stall is rising. So i will ask you how is the horse supposed to reach the target if the target is getting further and further away as time passes. Is the horse running backwards or is the target just faster ?
I know poeple were talking about the top songs that will dominate the charts from which genre will they come. but overall i don't see Pop overtaking Hip-Hop in dominance anytime soon. There are no numbers that can support that claim (not in 2021 ).
And if someone was wondering why Rock is #2 ahead of Pop in album consumption:
Even though every year only Queen's "Greatest Hits" is among the top 50 albums for that year (depending on the year maybe +1), and in the top 100 there are only like 5/6 Rock albums on average. So how ? - If you go further down in top 200 here are 25-35 Rock albums. Further down more and more.
Rock is the biggest catalog album seller. Since i have looked into this a while back:
Genres that have the albums with the biggest commercial longevity: 1 - Rock 2 - Hip-Hop 3 - Pop 4 - R&B (this was surprising to me the other 3 are as expected)
Note: The differences between #1 & #2 and #2 & #3 are kinda big. And i only split R&B from Hip-Hop because i saw that big R&B albums don't do that well commercially now compared to every other genre.
Almost every Rock big album has amazing commercial longevity.
Most big Hip-Hop albums have great longevity, quite a few of them are doing amazing, but there are duds aswell.
Good amount of big Pop albums have good longevity, with a few having awesome longevity, but a big number are dead aswell.
Rarely a big R&B has good longevity. Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyy are people missing out on such great music. :'(
Of course there are millions of variable that affect this, the biggest beeing: old Rock albums are doing this great because there aren't that many Rock Hits nowadays, nor big Rock albums being released, so if you want Rock music you have to listen to and old album from a legacy act most of the time. Hip-Hop is doing this well because Hip-Hop is just domingating right now.
I might get bashed for this comment but Pop is the trendiest genre of these 4. And trends sometimes don't age very well.
#4 i don't have an explanation honesly. The albums just don't get cosumed after a while. Like most nowadays kids don't even know Usher or Mary J. Blige, i wouldn't even try with the artists before them. And i am talking about casual listeners, and at the same time they know Rock/Hip-Hop/Pop legacy artists and albums.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 28, 2020 14:44:05 GMT -5
Yeah, at this point, it's expected that the biggest holiday tracks will re-enter annually and climb to their expected high points. Not much organic about that at this point. They're a category separate from "regular" recurrent tracks that return to the spotlight, whether as a result from social media or an act's passing. For instance, the re-entry of "Dreams" and holding on as it did for a few weeks was a nice surprise- while social media was the catalyst behind its resurgence, that led to the streams and sales required to chart as it did. I think "organic" refers to something that is popular without promotion/gimmicks/etc. The classic holiday songs aren't actively promoted each year, and to that end their success is organic.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Dec 28, 2020 15:23:44 GMT -5
I don't see pop overtaking rap in streaming especially on Apple Music where hip hop is very dominant. Theoretically if it became more dominant on Spotify & Amazon Music that would lead to higher numbers in many instances. However, I think the bigger thing is with the main generation that uses streaming (13-30 year olds) their preferred music in general is Hip-Hop. A cultural change would have to happen for that to just totally change. Perhaps the following generation would have to then get different tastes. The 30+ group doesn’t really tend to keep up with current music in general aside from major radio hits so it’s not likely they’d become big followers of current Pop music overnight.
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bigolefreak
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Post by bigolefreak on Dec 28, 2020 15:46:42 GMT -5
WAP back in the Top 10 and only ~200K streams from #1, America just can't get enoughWhere's the second single Cardi, we're starving Seriously Sis? Juice wrld got 15 songs top 200. This is just because of PLAYLISTS. All the streaming numbers are relative. What significant playlists is WAP featured on compared to the rest of the Top 10? It's N/A on Today's Top Hits *and actually left ages ago* (unlike the songs that came out around that time like LNCL, Dynamite & my ex's best friend which are all nowhere to been next to WAP) It's N/A on RapCaviar - second biggest playlist on the platform Like what are you talking about
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 16:12:04 GMT -5
I don't see pop overtaking rap in streaming especially on Apple Music where hip hop is very dominant. Theoretically if it became more dominant on Spotify & Amazon Music that would lead to higher numbers in many instances. However, I think the bigger thing is with the main generation that uses streaming (13-30 year olds) their preferred music in general is Hip-Hop. A cultural change would have to happen for that to just totally change. Perhaps the following generation would have to then get different tastes. The 30+ group doesn’t really tend to keep up with current music in general aside from major radio hits so it’s not likely they’d become big followers of current Pop music overnight. I don't see why those now major pop radio hits being kept up with, won't translate to major pop streaming hits to be kept up with. If radio is gone those types of listeners are still going to want their New major pop hits from somewhere and there's only streaming qleft to consume. You will also see as radio dies that promotion methods used there will be adopted (and modified) at streaming to attract listeners. I believe far too much faith is out into the concept that hip hop can only dominate stresming, simply because thst is how it has been. Far too much imagining that pop fans still in the tens of millions At radio will simply vanish from new music.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 16:16:35 GMT -5
Yeah, at this point, it's expected that the biggest holiday tracks will re-enter annually and climb to their expected high points. Not much organic about that at this point. They're a category separate from "regular" recurrent tracks that return to the spotlight, whether as a result from social media or an act's passing. For instance, the re-entry of "Dreams" and holding on as it did for a few weeks was a nice surprise- while social media was the catalyst behind its resurgence, that led to the streams and sales required to chart as it did. I think "organic" refers to something that is popular without promotion/gimmicks/etc. The classic holiday songs aren't actively promoted each year, and to that end their success is organic. I don't think Christmas music is any more popular today than it was in the 50s, 70s or 90s. The only thing that has changed is what and how gets counted. They are not organic because they aren't growing. it looks like growth because streaming is increasing. That is however just a reflection on the way it is being consumed and not because it has suddenly become more and more popular.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 28, 2020 16:20:29 GMT -5
I think "organic" refers to something that is popular without promotion/gimmicks/etc. The classic holiday songs aren't actively promoted each year, and to that end their success is organic. I don't think Christmas music is any more popular today than it was in the 50s, 70s or 90s. The only thing that has changed is what and how gets counted. They are not organic because they aren't growing. it looks like growth because streaming is increasing. That is however just a reflection on the way it is being consumed and not because it has suddenly become more and more popular. I was talking about organic popularity, not growth. This discussion started from someone calling "AIWFCIY" an 'organic' #1. I don't know how growth got brought into the discussion.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Dec 28, 2020 16:31:51 GMT -5
Theoretically if it became more dominant on Spotify & Amazon Music that would lead to higher numbers in many instances. However, I think the bigger thing is with the main generation that uses streaming (13-30 year olds) their preferred music in general is Hip-Hop. A cultural change would have to happen for that to just totally change. Perhaps the following generation would have to then get different tastes. The 30+ group doesn’t really tend to keep up with current music in general aside from major radio hits so it’s not likely they’d become big followers of current Pop music overnight. I don't see why those now major pop radio hits being kept up with, won't translate to major pop streaming hits to be kept up with. If radio is gone those types of listeners are still going to want their New major pop hits from somewhere and there's only streaming qleft to consume.You will also see as radio dies that promotion methods used there will be adopted (and modified) at streaming to attract listeners. I believe far too much faith is out into the concept that hip hop can only dominate stresming, simply because thst is how it has been. Far too much imagining that pop fans still in the tens of millions At radio will simply vanish from new music. R&B/Hip-Hop dominated the airplay chart in the 2000s, yet Pop songs dominated the digital sales chart in the 2000s. Those who were listening to R&B/Hip-Hop singles weren't buying them as much. Country dominated the albums chart in the early 1990s, yet was nearly non-existent at the highest positions on the singles chart. Those who bought Country albums weren't necessarily buying many Country singles. Simply because a genre does good in one form of consumption, doesn't mean that it will translate to another. Also personally speaking, my mother mainly listened to Pop radio when she listened to the radio, however when she streams/plays music on her own accord, it's almost always R&B. She found Urban radio had gotten too explicit and the artists who had become staples were ones she wasn't interested in. That is an example of a Pop radio listener not converting to streaming Pop music. And where Pop/HAC/AC radio's demo currently is, I'm sure that's very common. 40+ year olds who like easy-listening of well known hits, but they aren't necessarily going to go out of their way to consume those artists. My mom may like Don't Stop Now, Circles, and Without Me -- but she is not going to stream a Dua Lipa, Post Malone, or Halsey album. She doesn't have much interest in them nor care to know more about them aside from when she hears those songs on radio. Radio has some of the most passive listeners.
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lurker2
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Post by lurker2 on Dec 28, 2020 16:52:45 GMT -5
My hot take is that the genre that'll see the biggest relative growth on streaming is country. With the success of 7 Summers and Forever After All, I feel like the biggest country songs will start hanging out in the top fourty/fifty on streaming at least, and debut in the top ten semi-often.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 17:18:43 GMT -5
I don't see why those now major pop radio hits being kept up with, won't translate to major pop streaming hits to be kept up with. If radio is gone those types of listeners are still going to want their New major pop hits from somewhere and there's only streaming qleft to consume.You will also see as radio dies that promotion methods used there will be adopted (and modified) at streaming to attract listeners. I believe far too much faith is out into the concept that hip hop can only dominate stresming, simply because thst is how it has been. Far too much imagining that pop fans still in the tens of millions At radio will simply vanish from new music. R&B/Hip-Hop dominated the airplay chart in the 2000s, yet Pop songs dominated the digital sales chart in the 2000s. Those who were listening to R&B/Hip-Hop singles weren't buying them as much. Country dominated the albums chart in the early 1990s, yet was nearly non-existent at the highest positions on the singles chart. Those who bought Country albums weren't necessarily buying many Country singles. Simply because a genre does good in one form of consumption, doesn't mean that it will translate to another. Also personally speaking, my mother mainly listened to Pop radio when she listened to the radio, however when she streams/plays music on her own accord, it's almost always R&B. She found Urban radio had gotten too explicit and the artists who had become staples were ones she wasn't interested in. That is an example of a Pop radio listener not converting to streaming Pop music. And where Pop/HAC/AC radio's demo currently is, I'm sure that's very common. 40+ year olds who like easy-listening of well known hits, but they aren't necessarily going to go out of their way to consume those artists. My mom may like Don't Stop Now, Circles, and Without Me -- but she is not going to stream a Dua Lipa, Post Malone, or Halsey album. She doesn't have much interest in them nor care to know more about them aside from when she hears those songs on radio. Radio has some of the most passive listeners. Good points. I do think people are overlooking the fact that pop isn't that far behind hip hop on streaming. Sure there's a big gap, but it's not like pop needs to grow from zero to 100% to catch up to hip hop. It isn't going to take every radio pop listener to switch to do so. also it needs to be factored in that in the past in your examples, those music consumers had various options to switch their listening to. This discussion started around the death of sales and radio, so therefore there's nowhere else for anyone to go but streaming, unlike the choices of the past. playlists are not much more active. And I feel will only get worse and more like radio as time goes on. we can look back at this conversation in 10 years and see what really did happen and who was closest. My guess is we are all wrong and it'll be something out of left field.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 17:34:42 GMT -5
My main thing here is, if pop fans were to takeover streaming they probably would've done it by now. If a pop fan likes a certain song on the radio and wants to hear it again, why not stream it since it's easier to access than the radio?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 17:41:58 GMT -5
My hot take is Latin music will become more popular in the US, if you look on streaming sites you'll see songs like Dakiti, Bichota, La Noche De Anoche and Hawai have been streaming juggernauts and it's not crazy to think that, that can crossover to the states.
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Post by Henry Suárez on Dec 28, 2020 17:43:21 GMT -5
Ok fair enough. But, the US haven't had a rap song at #1 on Spotify since late October regardless (Lemonade), and there have been 8 #1 songs since. Sure but that doesn't change the fact that rap is still unbelievably dominant and the only organic number ones this year outside of Blinding Lights were Mood, ROCKSTAR, and The Box Say So, Savage, Watermelon Sugar, Savage Love all were big hits on their own, to a lesser extent Dynamite, Rain On Me and Toosie Slide as well. They got a little push to hit #1, ok, so what? aren't the artists involved not allowed to do promo, use meme or tiktok, etc because that makes the hit "inorganic", so silly imo. I'd agree with #1s like The Scotts, Franchise, Trollz, Life Goes On tho. (Willow still has a chance to become a hit, probably not, but let's wait)
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Post by Henry Suárez on Dec 28, 2020 17:48:49 GMT -5
I know all about the cycles. What I'm criticizing is the impatience of popheads who can't stand when rap is dominant, so they leap as soon as possible at anything (or even nothing) they can use to say the next year is going to be when pop comes back and shoves everything else into the corner. I've been hearing the same thing every Winter since 2018. And I don't think Rap and R&B fans complain as much when Pop is dominant. And I'm not saying you (or kcdawg) are the most guilty of this, you just happen to be the people opening the discussion this time. Others on this forum in the past have been more clearly disdainful while making their proclamations. I have nothing against Hip-Hop, I love Hip-Hop and I think the downbeat trap era is not bad at all. I'm just simply stating that a post-pandemic world would probably be the best foot forward for the pendulum to swing back Pop's way, as people will be likely partying all the time. If COVID didn't exist, I'm not sure if Pop would make a huge comeback this swiftly. Interesting point. I remember years ago I read an article regarding the BEP and electro/dance-pop domination in 2009/2010, they were also analysing the huge success of I Gotta Feeling at the time, talking about escapism and folks wanting to hear fun/happy tunes, and they concluded this Pop explosion was happening because people were moving on from the 2008 economic crisis. It could happen again when we start to recover from the Covid crisis.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Dec 28, 2020 19:11:31 GMT -5
Sure but that doesn't change the fact that rap is still unbelievably dominant and the only organic number ones this year outside of Blinding Lights were Mood, ROCKSTAR, and The Box Say So, Savage, Watermelon Sugar, Savage Love all were big hits on their own, to a lesser extent Dynamite, Rain On Me and Toosie Slide as well. They got a little push to hit #1, ok, so what? aren't the artists involved not allowed to do promo, use meme or tiktok, etc because that makes the hit "inorganic", so silly imo. I'd agree with #1s like The Scotts, Franchise, Trollz, Life Goes On tho. (Willow still has a chance to become a hit, probably not, but let's wait) Well to be fair, some of those songs probably would've never went to number 1 without a remix (Say So, Savage Love and Savage) or a sales discount (Watermelon Sugar and Savage, Dynamite probably would not have stayed at 1 without remixes) which would make their number 1 inorganic.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 19:33:48 GMT -5
My main thing here is, if pop fans were to takeover streaming they probably would've done it by now. If a pop fan likes a certain song on the radio and wants to hear it again, why not stream it since it's easier to access than the radio? It's a good question. I wish I had the answer. If someone right now could solve the question of why there are still radio listeners instead of everyone Just streaming, they'd get rich.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 19:36:54 GMT -5
I don't think Christmas music is any more popular today than it was in the 50s, 70s or 90s. The only thing that has changed is what and how gets counted. They are not organic because they aren't growing. it looks like growth because streaming is increasing. That is however just a reflection on the way it is being consumed and not because it has suddenly become more and more popular. I was talking about organic popularity, not growth. This discussion started from someone calling "AIWFCIY" an 'organic' #1. I don't know how growth got brought into the discussion. But the two are interchangeable in this regard. Call it either growth or popularity it doesn't matter. The song isn't any bigger than it has been for decades. Just changed what got counted and how making its numbers appear differently.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Dec 28, 2020 19:40:13 GMT -5
Say So, Savage, Watermelon Sugar, Savage Love all were big hits on their own, to a lesser extent Dynamite, Rain On Me and Toosie Slide as well. They got a little push to hit #1, ok, so what? aren't the artists involved not allowed to do promo, use meme or tiktok, etc because that makes the hit "inorganic", so silly imo. I'd agree with #1s like The Scotts, Franchise, Trollz, Life Goes On tho. (Willow still has a chance to become a hit, probably not, but let's wait) Well to be fair, some of those songs probably would've never went to number 1 without a remix (Say So, Savage Love and Savage) or a sales discount (Watermelon Sugar and Savage, Dynamite probably would not have stayed at 1 without remixes) which would make their number 1 inorganic. Watermelon Sugar" bounds 9-1 on the Digital Song Sales chart, up 614% to 63,000 downloads. #18 on Streaming Songs. The song was on sale in Styles' webstore via three physical/digital combination offerings during the tracking week ending Aug. 6. The song (its original version and an instrumental) was also sale-priced to 69 cents at all digital retailers during the tracking week. Yeah, obviously the bundles were a big boost; a song doesn't just go up 614% on its own. The next week, it was back to 10k.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 28, 2020 19:41:04 GMT -5
I was talking about organic popularity, not growth. This discussion started from someone calling "AIWFCIY" an 'organic' #1. I don't know how growth got brought into the discussion. But the two are interchangeable in this regard. Call it either growth or popularity it doesn't matter. The song isn't any bigger than it has been for decades. Just changed what got counted and how making its numbers appear differently. I don't think those two terms are interchangeable. I do think "AIWFCIY" is more popular now than it was 20 years ago.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Dec 28, 2020 19:52:38 GMT -5
Most of the time, a big fanbase push only happens for one week. Dynamite is...unique. Aside from that, 2020's new #1s with multiple weeks as a #1 contender, without adding more artists: the box, blinding lights, toosie slide, rockstar, wap, mood, positions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 21:48:44 GMT -5
But the two are interchangeable in this regard. Call it either growth or popularity it doesn't matter. The song isn't any bigger than it has been for decades. Just changed what got counted and how making its numbers appear differently. I don't think those two terms are interchangeable. I do think "AIWFCIY" is more popular now than it was 20 years ago. It's impossible to measure or compare really. From a time of needing to dog out the record, flip around radio stations, or catch a music video on tv - to a time of click and play. ease of access doesn't immediately imply more popular.
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nak
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Post by nak on Dec 28, 2020 22:06:21 GMT -5
Can we discuss how clever the songwriters for 34+35 are when they wrote "I don't wanna keep you up (You up) But show me, can you keep it up? (It up) 'Cause then I'll have to keep you up Shit, maybe I'ma keep you up, boy"
the double entendre here omfg
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𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤
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Post by 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 on Dec 28, 2020 22:15:35 GMT -5
Can we discuss how clever the songwriters for 34+35 are when they wrote "I don't wanna keep you up (You up) But show me, can you keep it up? (It up) 'Cause then I'll have to keep you up s**t, maybe I'ma keep you up, boy" the double entendre here omfg im spending an embarrassing amount of time figuring which line is about erectness and which is about staying awake lol
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Dec 28, 2020 22:52:23 GMT -5
Can we discuss how clever the songwriters for 34+35 are when they wrote "I don't wanna keep you up (You up) But show me, can you keep it up? (It up) 'Cause then I'll have to keep you up s**t, maybe I'ma keep you up, boy" the double entendre here omfg im spending an embarrassing amount of time figuring which line is about erectness and which is about staying awake lol All of them
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