Billboard Hot 100: 05/29/2021

[gikem]

May 15, 2021 17:53:26 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Also, is Cole in a good position for the #1?

I think so. The question now is which song of his will be the one to do so, and I think we need to wait for second-day numbers on Spotify to roll in before we can determine that.

Again, looking at Apple Music, my.life appears to be the standout track from the album, so that would be my choice to go to #1. I think 95.south only got as many streams on its first day as it did because it's the first song on the album.

[tekkenguy]

May 15, 2021 18:05:31 GMT -5 gikem said:

May 15, 2021 17:53:26 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Also, is Cole in a good position for the #1?

I think so. The question now is which song of his will be the one to do so, and I think we need to wait for second-day numbers on Spotify to roll in before we can determine that.

Again, looking at Apple Music, my.life appears to be the standout track from the album, so that would be my choice to go to #1. I think 95.south only got as many streams on its first day as it did because it's the first song on the album.

Will he also have top 2 to himself or even top 3?

[gikem]

May 15, 2021 18:10:39 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

May 15, 2021 18:05:31 GMT -5 gikem said:

I think so. The question now is which song of his will be the one to do so, and I think we need to wait for second-day numbers on Spotify to roll in before we can determine that.

Again, looking at Apple Music, my.life appears to be the standout track from the album, so that would be my choice to go to #1. I think 95.south only got as many streams on its first day as it did because it's the first song on the album.

Will he also have top 2 to himself or even top 3?

Again, too early to tell without more than one day of tracking, but it's possible.

[Choco]

Isn't J. Cole usually very frontloaded? Granted, the start was huge enough that moderate drops will still easily nab him a #1, but let's wait until the day two numbers first.

[ontopofthis]

May 15, 2021 19:09:07 GMT -5 Choco said:

Isn't J. Cole usually very frontloaded? Granted, the start was huge enough that moderate drops will still easily nab him a #1, but let's wait until the day two numbers first.

The number one is a guarantee. The start is just that big. He can follow the same pattern as that interlude he put out, and that is probably enough for him to have the top three songs. It is only a matter of which song of his is the number one right now

[chartfreak]

Lol, am I the only one that has never heard a J. Cole song?

[ovocactusjack]

May 15, 2021 19:53:51 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Lol, am I the only one that has never heard a J. Cole song?

What even is the point with comments like this? Lmao

[atg]

May 15, 2021 20:10:08 GMT -5 ovocactusjack said:

May 15, 2021 19:53:51 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Lol, am I the only one that has never heard a J. Cole song?

What even is the point with comments like this? Lmao

That should be impossible to believe anyways as you couldn’t go anywhere in 2018-2019 without hearing the songs he was on the radio (Middle Child, The London, a lot). With the latter song, it was also a surprise feature in the same way 21 appeared on My Life, so i’m suddenly assuming he doesn’t listen to 21 either?

[atg]

Also to add on, this might be the point in J Cole’s career where he experiences his first #1 and his biggest album to date. It worked for Kendrick as he was on feature game after TPAB, and then DAMN dropped and he was this A lister mainstream rap superstar, and scoring top 5/10 hits wasn’t so hard anymore.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

The KOD album did better than what The Off-Season is projected to do for the Billboard 200, but the latter will likely have its songs do better on the Hot 100 given how weak the Hot 100 is overall now compared to when KOD was released.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

You could definitely go places without ever hearing Middle Child & The London, lmao, that was an overstatement. If you exclusively listened to Top 40 radio, you would think J. Cole was a one hit wonder with “Work Out” from last decade.

His most famous LP is probably 2014 Forest Hills Drive. No Role Modelz & Wet Dreamz have amazing longevity on streaming (and aged immaculately). However, it’s not like it’s shocking people don’t know his material well.

[gikem]

May 15, 2021 20:35:31 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

The KOD album did better than what The Off-Season is projected to do for the Billboard 200, but the latter will likely have its songs do better on the Hot 100 given how weak the Hot 100 is overall now compared to when KOD was released.

When KOD came out, Nice For What was still pulling over 2.5M on US Spotify, Meant To Be was a radio monster (back when songs were still getting 100M+ AI via Nielsen for top airplay honors), and let's not forget Ariana released No Tears Left To Cry that same day. So it was an uphill battle for any J. Cole song to compete for the #1 that week in 2018.

By comparison, songs today like Levitating, LTDO, and Peaches may be very consistent, but are pulling paltry numbers. It's not helped by Nielsen adjusting radio impressions down last year (and they still haven't fully recovered) and sales being much lower than they were even just 3 years ago. So the top of the charts are rife for Cole to get his first #1, and possibly claim the top 3 or more just as Drake did earlier this year.

[chartfreak]

May 15, 2021 20:10:08 GMT -5 ovocactusjack said:

May 15, 2021 19:53:51 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Lol, am I the only one that has never heard a J. Cole song?

What even is the point with comments like this? Lmao

Cuz his streaming numbers are crazy!

[Deleted]

May 15, 2021 19:53:51 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Lol, am I the only one that has never heard a J. Cole song?

I think J. Cole is one of those artists that you don't realize you've heard before. That happened to me when I was binging BTS videos on youtube and came across a live performance I loved and I was like, hold up...I know I've heard this song before. It turned out they did a cover/remake of J. Cole's Born Sinner in Korean (their version is Born Singer). Once I realized who sang the original I went and listened and I had heard it a lot but didn't know who sang it. 

The moral of the story...you've probably heard at least one of his songs and just don't know it's him. 

[tekkenguy]

Cole can’t get the full top 10 to himself now can he?

[gikem]

May 15, 2021 21:09:12 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Cole can’t get the full top 10 to himself now can he?

I doubt it. The top of the chart is a fair bit stronger than it was when Drake released Scary Hours 2, and he had more pull from sales and radio, neither of which J. Cole really has. I expect Levitating, LTDO, Peaches, and maybe 1-2 other songs not from Cole (maybe Nicki and/or Olivia) in the top 10 this week depending on how the rest of it goes.

[Enigma.]

While this is about the US charts, J. Cole is very US-focused artist. 2/3 of his Spotify streams are from the US.

There might be plenty of international posters who don't know his music, apart from 2014FHD at least, which is familiar to me for instance. KOD and Born Sinner passed me by, as did his collaboration albums.

I also love No Sleeep!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I'm not that surprised J. Cole doesn't really have a big international following. With the exception of Drake, Nicki, and Cardi, Rap in general tends to be localized to countries/continents, especially when it comes to rap albums. Stormzy and Dave have been very successful in the UK and yet despite both of them making accessible, mainstream rap, neither have been able to crossover. America's large market has helped some rappers but it's consumerism is still very much US-centered.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[mylo]

We really rooting for Radioactive to keep the record over Blinding Lights? Why do people want it gone right now? I get that it is stale af but drop it once it has 88 weeks.

[Ratatouille]

May 16, 2021 0:24:13 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm not that surprised J. Cole doesn't really have a big international following. With the exception of Drake, Nicki, and Cardi, Rap in general tends to be localized to countries/continents, especially when it comes to rap albums. Stormzy and Dave have been very successful in the UK and yet despite both of them making accessible, mainstream rap, neither have been able to crossover. America's large market has helped some rappers but it's consumerism is still very much US-centered.

Only Eminem has 50% ww and 50% US numbers on Spotify if not more ww numbers

[dremolus - solarpunk]

May 16, 2021 1:58:02 GMT -5 mylo said:

We really rooting for Radioactive to keep the record over Blinding Lights? Why do people want it gone right now? I get that it is stale af but drop it once it has 88 weeks.

It's not that we're rooting for Radioactive to keep the record, we're just sick of Blinding Lights. It's already the biggest song in Billboard's history, it doesn't need anymore weeks on the charts.

[thegreatdivine]

May 15, 2021 20:25:34 GMT -5 atg said:

Also to add on, this might be the point in J Cole’s career where he experiences his first #1 and his biggest album to date. It worked for Kendrick as he was on feature game after TPAB, and then DAMN dropped and he was this A lister mainstream rap superstar, and scoring top 5/10 hits wasn’t so hard anymore.

Even though it garnered 0 top 10 hits, J. Cole's biggest and most well-received album till date is still 2014 Forest Hills Drive.

[thegreatdivine]

May 16, 2021 2:12:11 GMT -5 Ratatouille said:

May 16, 2021 0:24:13 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm not that surprised J. Cole doesn't really have a big international following. With the exception of Drake, Nicki, and Cardi, Rap in general tends to be localized to countries/continents, especially when it comes to rap albums. Stormzy and Dave have been very successful in the UK and yet despite both of them making accessible, mainstream rap, neither have been able to crossover. America's large market has helped some rappers but it's consumerism is still very much US-centered.

Only Eminem has 50% ww and 50% US numbers on Spotify if not more ww numbers

But his biggest market (and by a large margin) is still the US. That's where he has sold the most album/single units and where most of his audience is.

[thegreatdivine]

May 16, 2021 0:49:13 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

This should give both songs a cute, little boost. I can see drivers license, deja vu and good 4 u all being in the top 10 the week following the release of her album.

[Enigma.]

Really love her style to combine the best of Billie, Taylor and Avril/Paramore in one package. Clever!

[strongerq]

May 15, 2021 20:35:31 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

The KOD album did better than what The Off-Season is projected to do for the Billboard 200, but the latter will likely have its songs do better on the Hot 100 given how weak the Hot 100 is overall now compared to when KOD was released.

Well even though the total SPS number will be down, the SEA will be up.

So the album is performing better than KOD (it will have more streams - based on HitsDD).

The difference is KOD 174k pure -> 35-40k projected for TOS

Year	Album Sales
2015	240.7M
2016	205.5M
2017	169.1M
2018	138.8M
2019	112.7M
2020	102.7M

2021: Hello 8 digit number. No more 9s

But yeah the charts are weaker (compared to 2018 KOD time) & streams will be higher, 4 top 10s are looking like a reality (maybe 5, about more we need to hold the horses ).

May 15, 2021 20:53:45 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Cuz his streaming numbers are crazy!

His 2016 album "4 Your Eyez Only" debuted with 177M streams. 2nd biggest at the time (only behind "Views" from Drake).

His 2018 album "KOD" debuted with 322.7M streams. 3rd biggest at the time (behind "More Life" by Drake & "DAMN." by Kendrick Lamar)

He won't put up a record like this (as in 2nd/3rd biggest) but it will be pretty high yet again.

Like most have mentioned his albums have been frontloaded, and he doesn't have as much "pop" appeal as other hip-hop stars so it isn't that unlikely that someone hasn't heard of him.

The irony in his discography is despite having some of the most frontloaded albums, he has "2014 Forest Hills Drive" which simply put has one of the biggest longevity (looking at albums from early/mid 10s). It is 3rd (behind good kid m.A.A.d. city & Take Care). This is on the back of songs like "No Role Modelz" & "Wet Dreamz". There are others with lesser longevity but still impressive.

"No Role Modelz" is shaping up to be one of the songs with the biggest longevity from the 10s. It will be to the 10s the same that "Don't Stop Believin'", "Another One Bites The Dust", "Africa", "Sweet Child O'Mine", "Billie Jean" etc. are to the 80s.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[ZERO]

If Bella's YouTube keeps up (which it seems to be doing), "Build A B---h" might very well debut off the same strengths "Cancelled" had. Oo

[jenglisbe]

Does SNL still help songs much? I'm sure it boosts sales on iTunes a bit, but those sales are so negligible at this point it likely doesn't impact much. I haven't made a point to see if SNL boosts streaming much.
(And in looking at iTunes right now, Rodrigo's songs have all increased overnight, but not by much.)