Billboard Hot 100: 05/29/2021

[mms82]

May 23, 2021 12:58:03 GMT -5 kanimal said:

May 23, 2021 10:04:41 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

I've seen country resurgences, but this feels like something difference. Normally, the resurgence would be on radio and the gains in points would be 2%, 3%, 4% a week, but FAA has been gaining on all metrics and its points are increasing at a double-digit percentage rate. We'll see if it sustains, though. If the gains don't slow down in 5 weeks, then this is truly something more than a normal country resurgence.

It's definitely on a rare trajectory, but I still wouldn't classify it as a "resurgence" since this is the song's first run as a single. When it came out last fall, it was technically just an "instant gratification track" for his deluxe album. It was not promoted to radio, but it just happened to do huge sales and streaming numbers -- numbers that actually held up for a while because people really liked the song.

This isn't one of those situations in which a superstar country artist releases a new single, it charts well due to big first week sales and iHeartMedia airplay, and then comes back down to earth before gradually rising back as it embarks on its (lengthy) country radio run. It was literally not a single at first, so its sales/streams were essentially "unsolicited**." Now, it is a single, and it's seeing metric increases befitting a song that's connecting with radio listeners.

I guess we potentially could have seen something similar with "7 Summers," had the Morgan Wallen incident not happened. But even that would have been a little different as "7 Summers" was (however half-heartedly) promoted to mainstream radio upon launch.

**In the conventional sense; Luke famously did campaign for sales in the hopes of hitting #1 on the Hot 100.

Do you think Forever After All would work on mainstream radio? I love the song but it’s not a perfect fit for a crossover hit

[jenglisbe]

May 23, 2021 11:27:57 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

May 31, 1986

01 01 Greatest Love Of All - Whitney Houston (3rd and final week at #1)
10 06 What Have You Done For Me Lately - Janet Jackson


June 1, 1991

01 01 I Don't Wanna Cry - Mariah Carey (2nd and final week at #1)


June 1, 1996

02 02 Always Be My Baby - Mariah Carey
09 08 Count On Me - Whitney Houston & CeCe Winans

May 26, 2001

01 01 All For You - Janet Jackson (7th and final week at #1)

The way these women own!!

[Mayman]

May 23, 2021 11:06:11 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Even 34+35's run turned out to be a disappointment. I fully expected this to buck the trend and become Ari's first 40-week song, but it looks like it is going to leave the chart with positions.

Why would you expect that? Ariana's never been one to chart a song for a lengthy amount of time. Also, it's run is definitely not a disappointment, considering it's one of Ariana's biggest hits according to Billboard.

[kanimal]

May 23, 2021 14:55:52 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Do you think Forever After All would work on mainstream radio? I love the song but it’s not a perfect fit for a crossover hit

I don't think anyone would listen to this song and say "obvious pop crossover," but it basically put up the same first-week sales and streaming numbers as a lead Ariana Grande single. Given that, I think industry gatekeepers should have at least entertained the idea that it was connecting beyond the "core country" audience.

And though I know that radio doesn't think this way, my personal belief is that songs like this actually make more sense as crossovers. We're so conditioned to think that only aggressively poppy country songs can crossover, forgetting that many of those songs are just "diet pop songs" that aren't as catchy (and certainly not as fresh) as releases from major pop superstars. That therefore places a ceiling on their success. Whereas, something that sounds different would have a lower floor ... but also a higher ceiling.

But as someone mentioned elsewhere, you could make this same case for "7 Summers," Republic evidently tried, and mainstream radio wasn't biting.


(Not that I think "Forever After All," or much of Luke Combs' discography, is super traditional ... but I think the market perceives it/him as more "country" than most of the genre's current stars -- so the above argument ultimately applies)

[HeyHeyHey]

I would love to see “Forever After All” get a shot on some other formats! It is a great song and I think it would do decently well. Didn’t “Rumor” by Lee Brice make the top 20 on Adult Contemporary? This song is a bigger hit than that so I think it could work.

Luke has a shot at #1 on Billboard Country Airplay tomorrow - and if he doesn’t get it tomorrow he will for sure be there the following week. Once it gets there I could see it spending 3-4 weeks at #1 and dropping slowly (especially if the next lead single doesn’t come until August/September or later). A slow drop on country radio & streaming combined with a push to AC/CHR could give “Forever After All” some serious longevity.

[nathanalbright]

It already has some serious longevity, but yes, that sort of treatment would give it considerable legs.

[atg]

May 23, 2021 8:29:49 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

#23 will do exactly what #24’s song title is next week 😂.

[fhas]

[rainygirl]

Doja looking quite cute performing

[85la]

May 23, 2021 11:36:59 GMT -5 Lost In Musical Reverie said:

So sad that "Survivor" got stuck at #2 for 7 weeks behind "All For You", and the moment it left, "Lady Marmalade" took over.

All three are fantastic tunes, though - don't get me wrong.

Yep, totally agree. Statistically though, AFY ended up being a much bigger hit, finishing at #3 on the year-end chart, while the other two finished in the 20s. Survivor actually ranked at #1 on airplay for five weeks, but because it didn't have a physical single, it was held back at #2 on the Hot 100 behind AFY, which did have a physical. I suppose if Survivor had a physical, it might have gone #1, though the tradeoff would have likely been fewer album sales, as the Survivor album indeed sold about 4 million copies while Janet's All for You sold 3 million.

[KeepDeanWeird]

FAA potentially holding steady with maybe 10 debuts above it. Bad timing - a surge that know will ever notice looking back at this week’s chart.

RE: Pop radio paying diverse formats like country. Please. Not even if AG/JB give up their six weekly slot is that going happen.

[nathanalbright]

It will always have that #2 peak though, and it has already clinched a YE spot, so let us shed no tears for Combs' song.

[Eqbk]

Levitating is predicted to actually increase in points, and yet, it's actually a bit frustrating, given its situation.

[korbel16]

Man if radio pushed kiss me more like it did for Leave the door open it’d be a powerhouse on the charts. The streams are solid every week 😪

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/05/24

1(=) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Leave The Door Open 109.94(+0.65)
2(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON) 104.50(+0.60)
3(=) The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Save Your Tears (Remix) 84.55(-0.07)
4(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating (feat. DaBaby) 80.85(+0.37)
5(=) The Kid LAROI & Miley Cyrus - WITHOUT YOU (Miley Cyrus Remix) 64.08(+0.37)
6(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 53.27(-0.70)
7(=) Ariana Grande - pov 51.57(+0.52) +
8(+1) Maroon 5 & Megan Thee Stallion - Beautiful Mistakes 49.21(+0.35)
9(-1) Machine Gun Kelly & blackbear - my ex's best friend 48.98(-1.47) +
10(=) Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy 47.27(-0.56)

15(+2) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 43.27(+0.95)

18(+1) Luke Combs - Forever After All 42.50(+0.91)

22(+2) Dylan Scott - Nobody 39.16(+1.10)

29(+3) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 36.51(+2.02)

53(+1) GIVĒON - Heartbreak Anniversary 24.68(+0.60)

80(+3) Imagine Dragons - Follow You 18.34(+0.83) +

91(+1) Chase Rice - Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (feat. Florida Georgia Line) 16.45(+0.72)

98(+14) BTS - Butter 13.58(+2.40)

-(-) Regard, Troye Sivan & Tate McRae - You 10.94(+0.65)

-(-) Old Dominion - I Was On a Boat That Day 9.97(+0.75)

-(-) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 4.75(+0.91)

-(-) Marshmello & Jonas Brothers - Leave Before You Love Me 4.52(+1.32)

[Groovy]

This song will probably off the Hot 100 within a week or two. 

[phieaglesfan712]

May 24, 2021 2:53:12 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Man if radio pushed kiss me more like it did for Leave the door open it’d be a powerhouse on the charts. The streams are solid every week 😪

In my opinion, if KMM had been pushed on radio, it would be fighting for the #3/#4 position every week with Peaches. Like Peaches, KMM has the streams, but the lack of sales (in comparison to LTDO) would have held KMM back from reaching #1.

[nathanalbright]

May 24, 2021 10:25:02 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This song will probably off the Hot 100 within a week or two. 

That seems likely, given the way things have gone for Minaj recently.

[Deleted]

[Enigma.]

Congrats to Olivia, she's already a superstar

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Wow that was early. Grats to Olivia!

[thegreatdivine]

[thegreatdivine]

Weeks in the top 10.
20 Levitating
16 Save Your Tears
11 Leave the Door Open
9 Peaches
6 Kiss Me More
1 good 4 u
1 my.life
1 amari
1 pride.is.the.devil
1 95.south

[korbel16]

I thought cardi did this

[wavey.]

May 24, 2021 10:25:02 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This song will probably off the Hot 100 within a week or two. 

No, its still doing OK streaming wise.

[thegreatdivine]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

A reminder the Olivia discussion started like this



And is now like this

[Deleted]

May 24, 2021 12:38:27 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

I thought cardi did this

not BB charts not even knowing their own charts 🤦🏽‍♂️ slackin

[rimetm]

[nathanalbright]

Plenty of accolades to go around. Perhaps Billboard learned from their messy rollout last week to communicate the good news early.