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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Nov 17, 2021 11:42:54 GMT -5
I'm thinking about moving Fancy Like out of the could make it tier and moving it to the outside chance tier. If it keeps this up, it might now make the YE at all. You could probably add Knife Talk to your list somewhere now that it’s being promoted on radio. |
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Nov 17, 2021 13:53:33 GMT -5
wow i can't believe summer walker is getting her whole album on the 2022 year end woooow |
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Nov 17, 2021 13:58:52 GMT -5
I'm thinking both Normani and Chloe are sadly gonna get caught between years. We'll have to see how long the radio lasts for both but I can't see them sticking around for that long. Have Mercy definitely has more of a chance though, and I hope it does make it!
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Nov 17, 2021 16:17:17 GMT -5
I'm thinking both Normani and Chloe are sadly gonna get caught between years. We'll have to see how long the radio lasts for both but I can't see them sticking around for that long. Have Mercy definitely has more of a chance though, and I hope it does make it! If it makes you feel better, Wild Side is within sight of making the January-December YE, even though it will probably finish very low on that list if it does. |
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Nov 17, 2021 17:33:31 GMT -5
A shame that Wild Side is likely getting caught, but I'm mostly happy its ended up sticking around as long as it has
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Nov 17, 2021 19:39:16 GMT -5
If you want late year songs to get their due credit, each year I've been tracking the top 100 songs to PEAK in a given calendar year (credit to Rockgolf for the idea) & basically creating top 100 songs of the year charts in that way. For reference, Midnight Sky, One Beer & 7 Summers all made the 2020 list among the actual year end hits.
There are a couple drawbacks, Go Crazy missed the 2020 list because it randomly popped up to #3 in 2021 and so now its entire chart run is counted as a 2021 song which feels a bit wrong, & Christmas songs are an absolute nightmare to deal with. Right now I keep them separated by year with a rule of at most 1 appearance per year
As for Wild Side it's probably gonna wind up near DBGTA. We'll see if thats enough for a spot
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Nov 18, 2021 11:50:51 GMT -5
If you want late year songs to get their due credit, each year I've been tracking the top 100 songs to PEAK in a given calendar year (credit to Rockgolf for the idea) & basically creating top 100 songs of the year charts in that way. For reference, Midnight Sky, One Beer & 7 Summers all made the 2020 list among the actual year end hits. There are a couple drawbacks, Go Crazy missed the 2020 list because it randomly popped up to #3 in 2021 and so now its entire chart run is counted as a 2021 song which feels a bit wrong, & Christmas songs are an absolute nightmare to deal with. Right now I keep them separated by year with a rule of at most 1 appearance per year As for Wild Side it's probably gonna wind up near DBGTA. We'll see if thats enough for a spot I like this idea. Even using J-D year end some songs will still get caught between years, there's no way to stop that. I actually thought about this myself so glad someone is actually doing it! |
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 18, 2021 20:32:41 GMT -5
Using 1989 Billboard YE rules (the ones that allowed Look Away to get #1), nice.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Nov 18, 2021 20:53:47 GMT -5
Using 1989 Billboard YE rules (the ones that allowed Look Away to get #1), nice. Dear God, those ‘85-‘89 YEs… Once I figured out what Billboard was doing (credit to mikerivera), I’ve never looked at those lists the same way again. |
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 19, 2021 1:18:34 GMT -5
Sorry for bringing up bad memories there. The 10-month initial YE for the 1960's was a little crazy as well.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Nov 19, 2021 12:02:38 GMT -5
So do we have any long term predictions for Message In A Bottle?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Nov 19, 2021 12:11:35 GMT -5
I haven't seen anyone bring up Cold as You being a potential hit which would be insane since What You See Is What You Get came out in 2019 and is still producing hits in almost 2022.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Nov 19, 2021 12:18:45 GMT -5
I haven't seen anyone bring up Cold as You being a potential hit which would be insane since What You See Is What You Get came out in 2019 and is still producing hits in almost 2022. It’s going to peak on country radio this week. On pace to be She Got The Best Of Me 2.0 |
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Nov 20, 2021 13:46:03 GMT -5
(oh hey its me the one who did the 2020 preds, would u mind changing my name from Sailor Mars to Naomi thx!!)
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Nov 20, 2021 14:30:36 GMT -5
(oh hey its me the one who did the 2020 preds, would u mind changing my name from Sailor Mars to Naomi thx!!) Nah, I'm good |
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Zoibator
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Post by Zoibator on Nov 21, 2021 1:08:28 GMT -5
Gotta say that Easy On Me so far looks like an easy top 10 lock and might challenge for the No. 1 spot unless it suddenly drops fast
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Nov 21, 2021 20:54:39 GMT -5
I don't think Summer Walker is going to make a YE appearance.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Nov 22, 2021 22:51:31 GMT -5
RATCT appears out of the picture this year, it needed the full 7 weeks to even have a shot in 2021 (we still don't know for sure if it will be on the list)
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Post by reputainbow on Nov 23, 2021 11:46:26 GMT -5
i know there's... not a lot rn lol, but i figured to post what i have anyways. (year 5 of doing this, wow) {Week 2}1 Easy on Me (Adele) 729
2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 640
3 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 604
4 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 550
5 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 514
6 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 496
7 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 424
8 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 406
9 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 406
10 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 403
11 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 400
12 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 348
13 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 344
14 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 332
15 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 320
16 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 312
17 Beggin' (Maneskin) 312
18 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 304
19 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 282
20 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 274
21 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 268
22 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 264
23 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 255.2
24 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 254
25 Escape Plan (Travis Scott) 251.2
26 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 248
27 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 246
28 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 246
29 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 232
30 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 232
31 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 228
32 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 226
33 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 224
34 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 222
35 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 222
36 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 210
37 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 210
38 Pepas (Farruko) 209
39 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 207
40 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 195
41 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 194
42 Same Boat (Zac Brown Band) 181.2
43 Ex for a Reason (Summer Walker/JT) 172.4
44 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 172
45 Have Mercy (Chloe) 169.6
46 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 164.8
47 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 163.2
48 Gyalis (Capella Grey) 161.6
49 Sharing Locations (Meek Mill/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 154.4
50 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 153.6
51 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 152
52 State of Grace (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 150
53 Knowing You (Kenny Chesney) 147.2
54 Already Dead (Juice WRLD) 142
55 Fair Trade (Drake/Travis Scott) 138.4
56 I Bet You Think About Me (Taylor Swit/Chris Stapleton) 138
57 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 136
58 Red (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 132
59 Bitter (Summer Walker/Cardi B) 132
60 Mafia (Travis Scott) 130
61 Bubbly (Young Thug/Drake/Travis Scott) 128
62 Moth to a Flame (Swedish House Mafia/The Weeknd) 126.4
63 Tequila Little Time (Jon Pardi) 126.4
64 Sad Girlz Luv Money (Amaarae/Moliy) 125.6
65 Take My Breath (The Weeknd) 124.8
66 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 118.4
67 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 116.8
68 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 116.8
69 Big Energy (Latto) 115.2
70 Woman (Doja Cat) 115.2
71 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 114
72 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 110
73 For Tonight (Giveon) 106.4
74 Throw It Away (Summer Walker) 101
75 Nothing New (Taylor Swift/Phoebe Bridgers) 99
76 Reciprocate (Summer Walker) 98
77 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 97
78 Toxic (Summer Walker/Lil Durk) 97
79 I Knew You Were Trouble. (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 96
80 Run (Taylor Swift/Ed Sheeran) 95
81 Unloyal (Summer Walker/Ari Lennox) 94
82 Bad Man (Smooth Criminal) (Polo G) 93
83 Constant Bulls**t (Summer Walker) 93
84 You Don't Know Me (Summer Walker) 92
85 Better Man (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 89.2
86 22 (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 88.4
87 Insane (Summer Walker) 88.4
88 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 87.6
89 Treacherous (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 86.8
90 Circus (Summer Walker) 86.8
91 We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 86
92 4th Baby Mama (Summer Walker) 85.2
93 I Almost Do (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 82.8
94 Switch a N**** Out (Summer Walker) 82.8
95 Closure (Summer Walker) 82
96 The Very First Night (Taylor Swift) 81.2
97 Everything Has Changed (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift/Ed Sheeran) 79.6
98 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 78.8
99 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 78
100 The Last Time (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift/Gary Lightbody) 77.2
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Nov 23, 2021 14:57:28 GMT -5
Early year end predictions are so fun, the 2022 year end list right now consists primarily of a Summer Walker album that only has a few songs charting now and Taylor Swift songs from 2012 (though its worth noting one of those 2012 songs could easily make the final list)
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Nov 23, 2021 15:07:25 GMT -5
Early year end predictions are so fun, the 2022 year end list right now consists primarily of a Summer Walker album that only has a few songs charting now and Taylor Swift songs from 2012 (though its worth noting one of those 2012 songs could easily make the final list) All Too Well I assume, though I think Message In A Bottle and I Bet You Think About Me are also dark horse candidates |
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Nov 23, 2021 16:26:13 GMT -5
If All Too Well actually somehow makes the year end I'll do the Lil Pump PFP again (still can't believe that happened)
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 23, 2021 20:15:37 GMT -5
If All Too Well actually somehow makes the year end I'll do the Lil Pump PFP again (still can't believe that happened) Someone get on this asap. We need this to be preserved for posterity. |
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Nov 23, 2021 21:03:40 GMT -5
Welp.. no time to waste.. here is Week 2!
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 25, 2021 17:20:19 GMT -5
My similarly-waaaay-too-early estimate of the top songs in the 2022 Billboard year-end, using only the first two weeks of the year. (Nov 27, 2021)
Starting next week I'll restore the "Last Week", Change and Points gained columns. I may even be ridiculous enough to do a project to the year end!
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Future Captain
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My Charts
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Post by Future Captain on Nov 28, 2021 1:02:52 GMT -5
All Too Well will spend at least 3 weeks in the top 10 and might even survive for 20 weeks, so I think it have a decent shot to make it to the year end chart.
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Post by pokepikalem on Nov 28, 2021 7:53:23 GMT -5
Adele with 3 songs please:
Easy On Me
Oh My God
3rd Single
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2021 19:38:54 GMT -5
All Too Well will spend at least 3 weeks in the top 10 and might even survive for 20 weeks, so I think it have a decent shot to make it to the year end chart. I'm wondering if it'll get any radio traction (in an edited version, of course. No station is going to play a full 10 minute song). |
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Nov 28, 2021 20:16:56 GMT -5
All Too Well will spend at least 3 weeks in the top 10 and might even survive for 20 weeks, so I think it have a decent shot to make it to the year end chart. I'm wondering if it'll get any radio traction (in an edited version, of course. No station is going to play a full 10 minute song). Tho tbf if any artist working today could convince stations to play a 10 minute song it WOULD be taylor |
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Nov 28, 2021 20:56:43 GMT -5
An edited version? The original 5 min version is right there lol.
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