2022 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 10)

[PositivityMaster48]

Almost.. right on time.😅😅

[PositivityMaster48]

^^^^^^
Forgot to mention that Me Porto Bonito and Titi Me Preguntó lock this week.

[puwrpler04]

What do you guys think make the top 50 for this YE?

For me Numb Little Bug And Wasted On You Are Locks
Boyfriend is very likely
Me Porto Bonito and titi me Pregunto have great chances
So does late night talking
And I Could see running up that hill if it holds up

[nathanalbright]

I'm still a bit surprised we're not getting that two song a pace we need to keep up with the passage of time.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

"Thinking 'Bout You" 'bout to be the "Beautiful" (<-- Bazzi/Camila) of the 2022 YE chart for me (basically just hoping to sneak in the Bottom 10)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

ayt so when it's all said and done - barring any sudden boosts in virality - Numb Little Bug will be the highest peaking song on the YE not to hit the top 10. It's most likely gonna be in the Top 25

[kingvavis]

How far can Me Porto Bonito realistically make it on the year end list? I hope it makes the Top 25 but I have doubt

[rockgolf]

For the chart week ending July 23, 2022, here's my updated estimates of how the Top 100 of the year sit:

And now the projected year-end, based on songs losing 5% of current week points each week until they don't have enough points to make the top 50 of the week (or in some cases, the Billboard year-end is reached).

EST Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	As It Was	Harry Styles	12747
2	Heat Waves	Glass Animals	12297
3	Stay	The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber	10233
4	First Class	Jack Harlow	8264
5	Big Energy	Latto	8009
6	Easy On Me	Adele	7889
7	Ghost	Justin Bieber	7115
8	Bad Habits	Ed Sheeran	7106
9	Shivers	Ed Sheeran	6926
10	Cold Heart (PNAU Remix)	Elton John & Dua Lipa	6663
11	Super Gremlin	Kodak Black	6532
12	About Damn Time	Lizzo	6451
13	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	5656
14	Thats What I Want	Lil Nas X	5610
15	Enemy	Imagine Dragons X JID	5513
16	We Don't Talk About Bruno	Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast	5195
17	Woman	Doja Cat	4998
18	abcdefu	GAYLE	4976
19	Industry Baby	Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow	4846
20	Need To Know	Doja Cat	4800
21	Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God)	Kate Bush	4469
22	Me Porto Bonito	Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone	4431
23	Numb Little Bug	Em Beihold	3949
24	One Right Now	Post Malone & The Weeknd	3899
25	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	3762
26	Good 4 U	Olivia Rodrigo	3627
27	Boyfriend	Dove Cameron	3514
28	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	3439
29	Fancy Like	Walker Hayes	3338
30	Levitating	Dua Lipa	3314
31	Titi Me Pregunto	Bad Bunny	3296
32	Jimmy Cooks	Drake ft. 21 Savage	3276
33	'Til You Can't	Cody Johnson	3259
34	You Right	Doja Cat & The Weeknd	3047
35	Break My Soul	Beyonce	3037
36	Late Night Talking	Harry Styles	2911
37	Pushin P	Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug	2903
38	Smokin Out The Window	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	2901
39	I Hate U	SZA	2852
40	Buy Dirt	Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan	2830
41	Get Into It (Yuh)	Doja Cat	2760
42	Hrs And Hrs	Muni Long	2740
43	Surface Pressure	Jessica Darrow	2718
44	MAMIII	Becky G X Karol G	2582
45	Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah)	CKay	2559
46	Sand In My Boots	Morgan Wallen	2529
47	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	2453
48	AA	Walker Hayes	2438
49	Moscow Mule	Bad Bunny	2427
50	Glimpse Of Us	Joji	2385
51	Knife Talk	Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat	2333
52	Bam Bam	Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran	2332
53	Essence	Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems	2182
54	Sweetest Pie	Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa	2181
55	Fingers Crossed	Lauren Spencer-Smith	2175
56	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	2172
57	Doin' This	Luke Combs	2128
58	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2104
59	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	2082
60	Oh My God	Adele	2006
61	Better Days	NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G	1964
62	Meet Me At Our Spot	THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole	1952
63	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	1948
64	Broadway Girls	Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen	1925
65	You Should Probably Leave	Chris Stapleton	1902
66	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	1837
67	Never Say Never	Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson	1803
68	Provenza	Karol G	1799
69	She's All I Wanna Be	Tate McRae	1752
70	The Family Madrigal	Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast	1730
71	What Happened To Virgil	Lil Durk ft. Gunna	1712
72	Kiss Me More	Doja Cat ft. SZA	1685
73	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1656
74	Light Switch	Charlie Puth	1648
75	Damn Strait	Scotty McCreery	1645
76	Beers On Me	Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY	1641
77	In A Minute	Lil Baby	1640
78	Like I Love Country Music	Kane Brown	1621
79	One Mississippi	Kane Brown	1614
80	To The Moon!	JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins	1584
81	All Too Well (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1516
82	Trouble With A Heartbreak	Jason Aldean	1505
83	Heart On Fire	Eric Church	1492
84	Thinking 'Bout You	Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter	1476
85	Sticky	Drake	1460
86	23	Sam Hunt	1442
87	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1435
88	To Be Loved By You	Parker McCollum	1419
89	Take My Name	Parmalee	1412
90	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1402
91	Circles Around This Town	Maren Morris	1383
92	Flower Shops	ERNEST ft. Morgan Wallen	1382
93	Who Want Smoke??	Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage	1378
94	Puffin On Zootiez	Future	1364
95	Way 2 Sexy	Drake ft. Future & Young Thug	1347
96	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1343
97	Happier Than Ever	Billie Eilish	1322
98	Fall In Love	Bailey Zimmerman	1289
99	Me Or Sum	Nardo Wick, Lil Baby & Future	1289
100	When You're Gone	Shawn Mendes	1285

So a caveat on As It Was ascending to a projected #1 song of the year. My point system gives increasing points to a #1 song based on the length of time it spend at that position. (To a lesser extent for #2 and #3 songs, too.) This being AIW's tenth non-consecutive week at #1 it scored a staggering 576 points. When it drops to #2 next week, it'll drop dramatically more than 5% and we may get a better idea of where the song will really end up. But if About Damn Time can't hold onto #1, and AIW returns to the top for a record-setting fifth, that point gain is going to be even bigger. Almost certainly AIW will stay in the top 5 for at least another month, maybe two.

We may actually have a real horserace for #1 of the year! (At this point, I suspect both Heat Waves (barely) and As It Was will remain on the chart until the last week of the Billboard 2022 calendar year.

[Groovy]

^Give me this hypothetical YE

[Groovy]

[inverse]

Jul 21, 2022 7:53:49 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

ayt so when it's all said and done - barring any sudden boosts in virality - Numb Little Bug will be the highest peaking song on the YE not to hit the top 10. It's most likely gonna be in the Top 25

Wasted On You is a contender

[yosh9x]

Jul 21, 2022 15:59:35 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jul 21, 2022 7:53:49 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

ayt so when it's all said and done - barring any sudden boosts in virality - Numb Little Bug will be the highest peaking song on the YE not to hit the top 10. It's most likely gonna be in the Top 25

Wasted On You is a contender

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 21, 2022 16:17:47 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Jul 21, 2022 15:59:35 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wasted On You is a contender

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

Well, if you don’t count that, then Levitating and Save Your Tears would qualify, since they don’t have a Top 10 week in the tracking year. I think they’re talking about strict peaks, in which case the contenders would be Til You Can’t, Boyfriend, and Numb Little Bug, all of which peaked outside the Top 15.

[M5AGTS]

Jul 21, 2022 16:25:59 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 21, 2022 16:17:47 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

Well, if you don’t count that, then Levitating and Save Your Tears would qualify, since they don’t have a Top 10 week in the tracking year. I think they’re talking about strict peaks, in which case the contenders would be Til You Can’t, Boyfriend, and Numb Little Bug, all of which peaked outside the Top 15.

Don't forget G4U. But those most definitely do count.

[nathanalbright]

Agreed, it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[inverse]

Jul 21, 2022 16:17:47 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Jul 21, 2022 15:59:35 GMT -5 inverse said:

Wasted On You is a contender

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

I think it makes sense to differentiate it by year. Basically, because Good 4 U was never a top 10 hit at any time this year, then it is eligible to be the highest song that didn't spend any time in the top 10 is Good 4 U, because the highest week it had during the tracking period was at #13. (although Wasted On You will likely surpass it barring any major album bombs.)

It's just the most consistent way of doing it. If Good 4 U was a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2021 then was Unwritten also a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2006? Or think about it in terms of sports. If Tom Brady & the Buccaneers go 17-0 next year, then you could say that Tom Brady was undefeated, even though he has previously lost games in past seasons. Similarly Good 4 U, Wasted On You, Levitating etc. never touched the top 10 this year regardless of what they did in the past & can be considered the highest song that peaked below the top 10.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 3:36:06 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jul 21, 2022 16:17:47 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

I think it makes sense to differentiate it by year. Basically, because Good 4 U was never a top 10 hit at any time this year, then it is eligible to be the highest song that didn't spend any time in the top 10 is Good 4 U, because the highest week it had during the tracking period was at #13. (although Wasted On You will likely surpass it barring any major album bombs.)

It's just the most consistent way of doing it. If Good 4 U was a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2021 then was Unwritten also a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2006? Or think about it in terms of sports. If Tom Brady & the Buccaneers go 17-0 next year, then you could say that Tom Brady was undefeated, even though he has previously lost games in past seasons. Similarly Good 4 U, Wasted On You, Levitating etc. never touched the top 10 this year regardless of what they did in the past & can be considered the highest song that peaked below the top 10.

I was talking about overall chart history lmao so as to not complicate things of what were their peaks within a year. Idk why you brought up sports.

I stand by what I said: NLB will be the highest song on the YE not to hit the Top 10.

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 4:00:33 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 3:36:06 GMT -5 inverse said:

I think it makes sense to differentiate it by year. Basically, because Good 4 U was never a top 10 hit at any time this year, then it is eligible to be the highest song that didn't spend any time in the top 10 is Good 4 U, because the highest week it had during the tracking period was at #13. (although Wasted On You will likely surpass it barring any major album bombs.)

It's just the most consistent way of doing it. If Good 4 U was a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2021 then was Unwritten also a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2006? Or think about it in terms of sports. If Tom Brady & the Buccaneers go 17-0 next year, then you could say that Tom Brady was undefeated, even though he has previously lost games in past seasons. Similarly Good 4 U, Wasted On You, Levitating etc. never touched the top 10 this year regardless of what they did in the past & can be considered the highest song that peaked below the top 10.

I was talking about overall chart history lmao so as to not complicate things of what were their peaks within a year. Idk why you brought up sports.

I stand by what I said: NLB will be the highest song on the YE not to hit the Top 10.

Is Dreams a top 10 hit of 2020 then?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 5:55:19 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 4:00:33 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I was talking about overall chart history lmao so as to not complicate things of what were their peaks within a year. Idk why you brought up sports.

I stand by what I said: NLB will be the highest song on the YE not to hit the Top 10.

Is Dreams a top 10 hit of 2020 then?

Dreams didn't hit the top 10 in 2020 lmao

Also Dreams was a number one hit in 1977

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 22, 2022 3:36:06 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jul 21, 2022 16:17:47 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Wasted on you debuted at #9, but maybe that doesn't count since that was last year.

I think it makes sense to differentiate it by year. Basically, because Good 4 U was never a top 10 hit at any time this year, then it is eligible to be the highest song that didn't spend any time in the top 10 is Good 4 U, because the highest week it had during the tracking period was at #13. (although Wasted On You will likely surpass it barring any major album bombs.)

It's just the most consistent way of doing it. If Good 4 U was a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2021 then was Unwritten also a top 10 hit this year because of weeks it spent in the top 10 in 2006? Or think about it in terms of sports. If Tom Brady & the Buccaneers go 17-0 next year, then you could say that Tom Brady was undefeated, even though he has previously lost games in past seasons. Similarly Good 4 U, Wasted On You, Levitating etc. never touched the top 10 this year regardless of what they did in the past & can be considered the highest song that peaked below the top 10.

The difference is that sports teams change players from year to year, so their record one year can’t be continued to the next. With songs, they pretty much stay the same, so their run from one year to the next can be treated as continuous. Obvious exceptions include the cases of Dreams and RUTH, in which too much time has passed from the initial run. Even WoY’s run can be treated as continuous, since it debuted at around the same time as Heat Waves.

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 6:26:21 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 5:55:19 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Is Dreams a top 10 hit of 2020 then?

Dreams didn't hit the top 10 in 2020 lmao

Also Dreams was a number one hit in 1977

Thx for proving my point.

[Groovy]

[Groovy]

Looking at the YE, I count peaks by year and not overall runs, hence why I'm saying Stay is the biggest non-number 1 of the year since it never peaked at 1 in the 2022 year.

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 10:29:26 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Looking at the YE, I count peaks by year and not overall runs, hence why I'm saying Stay is the biggest non-number 1 of the year since it never peaked at 1 in the 2022 year.

EXCATLY!!! Also say a song gets 6 weeks at #1 in its first year, is #4 on YE, then second year sticks around long enough to make YE at #97, getting as high as 24 during the chart year. Saying that the lowest number one of the year is said song would be ridiculous.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 10:07:58 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 6:26:21 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Dreams didn't hit the top 10 in 2020 lmao

Also Dreams was a number one hit in 1977

Thx for proving my point.

What was your point lmao? I corrected you because you thought Dreams hit the top 10 in 2020 when it didn't, it only got as high as #12

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 10:56:36 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 10:07:58 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Thx for proving my point.

What was your point lmao? I corrected you because you thought Dreams hit the top 10 in 2020 when it didn't, it only got as high as #12

No. I knew it hit #12. I was asking you if you thought Dreams was a top ten of 2020 cause it hit the top ten in 1977.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 10:58:53 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 10:56:36 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

What was your point lmao? I corrected you because you thought Dreams hit the top 10 in 2020 when it didn't, it only got as high as #12

No. I knew it hit #12. I was asking you if you thought Dreams was a top ten of 2020 cause it hit the top ten in 1977.

Well even if it did hit the top 10 in October/November

I would call it both a Top 10 hit in 2020 + a number one single because it did go to number one, just not in 2020. If it made the YE of 2021, I would refer to it as a number one song.

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 11:01:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 10:58:53 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

No. I knew it hit #12. I was asking you if you thought Dreams was a top ten of 2020 cause it hit the top ten in 1977.

Well even if it did hit the top 10 in October/November

I would call it both a Top 10 hit in 2020 + a number one single because it did go to number one, just not in 2020. If it made the YE of 2021, I would refer to it as a number one song.

So if it was #100 on the year end, you would call it the lowest number one on the year end?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 11:03:18 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:01:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Well even if it did hit the top 10 in October/November

I would call it both a Top 10 hit in 2020 + a number one single because it did go to number one, just not in 2020. If it made the YE of 2021, I would refer to it as a number one song.

So if it was #100 on the year end, you would call it the lowest number one on the year end?

yeah

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 11:13:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:03:18 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

So if it was #100 on the year end, you would call it the lowest number one on the year end?

yeah

By that logic Dreams is the least successful #1 of 2021. The least successful #1 of 2021 is Permission To Dance.