2022 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 10)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 11:14:48 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:13:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

yeah

By that logic Dreams is the least successful #1 of 2021. The least successful #1 of 2021 is Permission To Dance.

That's not what my logic is lmao.

When looking at successful #1 runs, I look at their actual runs overall

[M5AGTS]

Jul 22, 2022 11:19:11 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:14:48 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

By that logic Dreams is the least successful #1 of 2021. The least successful #1 of 2021 is Permission To Dance.

That's not what my logic is lmao.

When looking at successful #1 runs, I look at their actual runs overall

So what song would you call the least successful #1 of 2021?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 22, 2022 11:21:40 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

Jul 22, 2022 11:19:11 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

That's not what my logic is lmao.

When looking at successful #1 runs, I look at their actual runs overall

So what song would you call the least successful #1 of 2021?

also PTD

[nathanalbright]

I think that there is a different sort of conversation between what songs were biggest overall and which were biggest in a particular year. I would like to think that we are capable of having that kind of nuanced conversation where we could in one thread talk about the role of chart longevity in making contemporary chart runs so long and so massive (despite the lower points per week) while simultaneously talking about how particular songs did in particular years, noting when they hit #1 or were in the top ten and so on.

[kcdawg13]

Levitating was the biggest song of 2021 in terms of longevity and the like while Stay is the biggest song RELEASED in 2021. There’s a difference.

[atg]

^ That comparison reminds me of when Love Yourself was the biggest song of 2016 in terms of longevity (somehow, still gets to me how it wasn’t One Dance or at least Sorry), but the biggest song released in that year was Closer.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 24, 2022 9:55:48 GMT -5 atg said:

^ That comparison reminds me of when Love Yourself was the biggest song of 2016 in terms of longevity (somehow, still gets to me how it wasn’t One Dance or at least Sorry), but the biggest song released in that year was Closer.

It shocked me to find out that One Dance was the closest thing to As It Was, in terms of 10+ week #1’s that wasn’t dominant in any metric. As I’ve pointed out before, AIW only spent 2 weeks at #1 on streaming, 4 weeks at #1 on radio, and one week at #1 on sales. Well, One Dance’s metric breakdown is one week at #1 on streaming, 5 weeks at #1 on radio, and 2 weeks at #1 on sales. Also, AIW topped the Hot 100 without topping a metric in 7 of its 10 weeks, whereas One Dance topped the Hot 100 without topping a metric in 6 of its 10 weeks.

Oh, and One Dance spent only about 30 weeks on the charts, whereas Love Yourself and Sorry spent about 40.

[rockgolf]

The final update for July 2022 of the year-end Top 100:

No action within the top 10, and except for Adele, every song is still charting. That may change next week if Bad Habits can't hold onto a top 25 position.

And with As It Was falling out of the weekly #1 spot, that has a cascade effect on how the predictive Hot 100 looks.

EST Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Heat Waves	Glass Animals	12408
2	As It Was	Harry Styles	11524
3	Stay	The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber	10281
4	First Class	Jack Harlow	7900
5	Easy On Me	Adele	7889
6	Shivers	Ed Sheeran	7422
7	Big Energy	Latto	7415
8	About Damn Time	Lizzo	7351
9	Ghost	Justin Bieber	7260
10	Bad Habits	Ed Sheeran	7241
11	Cold Heart (PNAU Remix)	Elton John & Dua Lipa	6800
12	Super Gremlin	Kodak Black	6633
13	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	5791
14	Thats What I Want	Lil Nas X	5712
15	Enemy	Imagine Dragons X JID	5624
16	We Don't Talk About Bruno	Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast	5195
17	Woman	Doja Cat	5114
18	abcdefu	GAYLE	4976
19	Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God)	Kate Bush	4862
20	Industry Baby	Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow	4846
21	Need To Know	Doja Cat	4800
22	Me Porto Bonito	Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone	4554
23	Numb Little Bug	Em Beihold	4100
24	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	3926
25	Late Night Talking	Harry Styles	3907
26	One Right Now	Post Malone & The Weeknd	3899
27	Good 4 U	Olivia Rodrigo	3627
28	Boyfriend	Dove Cameron	3515
29	Jimmy Cooks	Drake ft. 21 Savage	3472
30	Titi Me Pregunto	Bad Bunny	3451
31	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	3439
32	Fancy Like	Walker Hayes	3338
33	Levitating	Dua Lipa	3314
34	Break My Soul	Beyonce	3276
35	'Til You Can't	Cody Johnson	3259
36	You Right	Doja Cat & The Weeknd	3047
37	Pushin P	Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug	2903
38	Smokin Out The Window	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	2901
39	I Hate U	SZA	2852
40	Buy Dirt	Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan	2830
41	Hrs And Hrs	Muni Long	2740
42	Surface Pressure	Jessica Darrow	2718
43	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	2644
44	Moscow Mule	Bad Bunny	2586
45	MAMIII	Becky G X Karol G	2582
46	Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah)	CKay	2559
47	Sand In My Boots	Morgan Wallen	2529
48	Get Into It (Yuh)	Doja Cat	2463
49	AA	Walker Hayes	2438
50	Glimpse Of Us	Joji	2432
51	Bam Bam	Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran	2365
52	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	2350
53	Knife Talk	Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat	2333
54	Sweetest Pie	Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa	2278
55	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	2229
56	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	2220
57	Essence	Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems	2182
58	Fingers Crossed	Lauren Spencer-Smith	2175
59	Doin' This	Luke Combs	2128
60	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2104
61	In A Minute	Lil Baby	2094
62	Oh My God	Adele	2006
63	Better Days	NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G	1964
64	Meet Me At Our Spot	THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole	1952
65	Broadway Girls	Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen	1925
66	You Should Probably Leave	Chris Stapleton	1902
67	What Happened To Virgil	Lil Durk ft. Gunna	1810
68	Never Say Never	Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson	1803
69	She's All I Wanna Be	Tate McRae	1752
70	The Family Madrigal	Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast	1730
71	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	1708
72	Bad Habit	Steve Lacy	1703
73	Provenza	Karol G	1687
74	Kiss Me More	Doja Cat ft. SZA	1685
75	Damn Strait	Scotty McCreery	1663
76	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1656
77	Light Switch	Charlie Puth	1648
78	Beers On Me	Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY	1641
79	One Mississippi	Kane Brown	1614
80	Trouble With A Heartbreak	Jason Aldean	1591
81	To The Moon!	JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins	1584
82	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1536
83	All Too Well (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1516
84	Take My Name	Parmalee	1512
85	Heart On Fire	Eric Church	1492
86	Thinking 'Bout You	Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter	1476
87	Flower Shops	ERNEST ft. Morgan Wallen	1460
88	Puffin On Zootiez	Future	1446
89	23	Sam Hunt	1442
90	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1435
91	To Be Loved By You	Parker McCollum	1419
92	Fall In Love	Bailey Zimmerman	1417
93	Circles Around This Town	Maren Morris	1383
94	Who Want Smoke??	Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage	1378
95	Like I Love Country Music	Kane Brown	1357
96	Thousand Miles	The Kid LAROI	1348
97	Way 2 Sexy	Drake ft. Future & Young Thug	1347
98	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	1345
99	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1343
100	Despues de La Playa	Bad Bunny	1328

Based on current position, I'm estimating the following to be the last weeks for some big songs:

• As It Was, Heat Waves, First Class, & About Damn Time should still be charting in the last calendar week of 2022, November 12.
  
• Stay should remain on the chart through October 8
  
• Big Energy through October 15
  

[Dylan :)]

How did As It Was get more points than About Damn Time?

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 26, 2022 14:51:13 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

• Stay should remain on the chart through October 8
  
• Big Energy through October 15
  

You're basically implying that the end of September/beginning of October is going to be busy if Big Energy is going to fall off the Top 50 before its 52nd week. I guess this confirms Taylor Swift is going to drop an album on September 30.

[jasper0102]

Jul 24, 2022 10:03:49 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 24, 2022 9:55:48 GMT -5 atg said:

^ That comparison reminds me of when Love Yourself was the biggest song of 2016 in terms of longevity (somehow, still gets to me how it wasn’t One Dance or at least Sorry), but the biggest song released in that year was Closer.

It shocked me to find out that One Dance was the closest thing to As It Was, in terms of 10+ week #1’s that wasn’t dominant in any metric. As I’ve pointed out before, AIW only spent 2 weeks at #1 on streaming, 4 weeks at #1 on radio, and one week at #1 on sales. Well, One Dance’s metric breakdown is one week at #1 on streaming, 5 weeks at #1 on radio, and 2 weeks at #1 on sales. Also, AIW topped the Hot 100 without topping a metric in 7 of its 10 weeks, whereas One Dance topped the Hot 100 without topping a metric in 6 of its 10 weeks.

Oh, and One Dance spent only about 30 weeks on the charts, whereas Love Yourself and Sorry spent about 40.

The On-Demand songs chart exists right?

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 37!

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 37}1 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 10262
2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 9255
3 Easy on Me (Adele) 7547
4 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 6785.4
5 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 6725
6 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 6228
7 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 6226
8 Big Energy (Latto) 6174.8
9 As It Was (Harry Styles) 5974
10 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 5738
11 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 5294.8
12 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 5214
13 abcdefu (GAYLE) 5135.2
14 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 5121.2
15 First Class (Jack Harlow) 5040
16 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 4803
17 Woman (Doja Cat) 4715.2
18 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 4546
19 Wait For U (Future/Drake/Tems) 3659
20 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 3659
21 About Damn Time (Lizzo) 3506
22 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3387
23 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 3254.2
24 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3134
25 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 3117
26 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 3068
27 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 2875
28 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2824.4
29 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2820
30 I Hate U (SZA) 2696
31 Numb Little Bug (Em Beihold) 2671.6
32 Boyfriend (Dove Cameron) 2651.6
33 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 2628.4
34 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 2577.2
35 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 2559
36 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 2408
37 Mamiii (Becky G/Karol G) 2395.2
38 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 2393.4
39 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 2375.8
40 Me Porto Bonito (Bad Bunny/Chencho Corleone) 2369
41 AA (Walker Hayes) 2340
42 Bam Bam (Camila Cabello/Ed Sheeran) 2250.2
43 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 2198
44 Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) (Kate Bush) 2146
45 Sweetest Pie (Megan Thee Stallion/Dua Lipa) 2134.8
46 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 2126.4
47 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124
48 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 2037.4
49 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2030
50 Titi Me Pregunto (Bad Bunny) 1991
51 Oh My God (Adele) 1947.8
52 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 1847.4
53 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1845.4
54 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1799.4
55 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1795.8
56 Never Say Never (Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson) 1784.4
57 Get Into It (Yuh) (Doja Cat) 1775.8
58 Flower Shops (ERNEST/Morgan Wallen) 1767.2
59 What Happened to Virgil (Lil Durk/Gunna) 1762.6
60 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739
61 Circles Around This Town (Maren Morris) 1724.4
62 Moscow Mule (Bad Bunny) 1705
63 She's All I Wanna Be (Tate Mcrae) 1702.6
64 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1695
65 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 1676.4
66 Late Night Talking (Harry Styles) 1647
67 To the Moon (Jnr Choi) 1633.2
68 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 1631.4
69 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 1612
70 Trouble With a Heartbreak (Jason Aldean) 1599.8
71 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1574.4
72 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571
73 Light Switch (Charlie Puth) 1565.8
74 In a Minute (Lil Baby) 1559.8
75 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548
76 23 (Sam Hunt) 1531.6
77 Take My Name (Parmalee) 1517.2
78 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485
79 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 1482.2
80 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 1474.8
81 Provenza (Karol G) 1470
82 If I Was a Cowboy (Miranda Lambert) 1451.2
83 Me or Sum (Nardo Wick/Lil Baby/Future) 1423.2
84 Puffin on Zooties (Future) 1396.4
85 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2
86 Damn Strait (Scotty McCreery) 1368.2
87 You Proof (Morgan Wallen) 1368
88 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1355.8
89 Jimmy Cooks (Drake/21 Savage) 1338
90 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 1312.6
91 Never Wanted to Be That Girl (Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde) 1309.6
92 Slow Down Summer (Thomas Rhett) 1303
93 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 1296.2
94 Do We Have a Problem? (Nicki Minaj/Lil Baby) 1295.4
95 Despues De La Playa (Bad Bunny) 1293
96 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 1291.2
97 Thousand Miles (Kid Laroi) 1288.4
98 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8
99 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 1277.2
100 Something In the Orange (Zach Bryan) 1245.8

[puwrpler04]

Update to songs YE chances july edition
145,000 considered lock
Get into it Yuh 100% locks next week
Flower Shops 75% it’s chances shot up huge by charting this week. One more week charting and I’m confident this makes it :)
Trouble With A Heartbreak 95% as long as it dosent get knocked out by and album bomb in the next 2 weeks it’ll lock
Moscow Mule 100% Will lock in a week or 2
In A Minute 100% Will lock in 2 weeks
Late Night Talking 100% Will lock in 2 weeks
Take My Name 95% Should be safe as long as it charts next 3-4 weeks
Provenza 100% Will Lock In 3 Weeks
Puffin On Zootiez 60% I’m still pretty confident this will make it but it is slipping on streaming faster than I thought
Damn Strait 70% Should make it as long as it gets 20 Weeks
Thousand Miles 60% It’s strong start should help it and it should make it as long as radio doesn’t fall as fast as light switch
Despuses De La Playa 60% Strong start and a tiny bit of radio should help this sneak on
Party 60% ^
You Proof 100% Will Lock In A Month
Something In The Orange 100% Will Lock In A Month. LG
Jimmy Cooks 100% Will Lock In A Month
Right On 20% Maybe The Album bomb will help this but I think it falls just short
2Step 45% Radio Is falling but this has a chance if it gets 20 Weeks
I Like You 100% Will Lock In A Month
Ojitos Lindos 50% Has A good chance With 20 Weeks
Efecto 60% Has Better Streaming to help it’s chances
Cooped Up 40% if it holds up it will make it but I see radio dropping this soon
Glimpse of us 75% streaming is falling fast but the radio should help this slow down
Fall In Love 80% Great streaming and just starting its radio run
Break My Soul 100% Beyonces album guarantees this will make it
Tarot 20% bad bunny would need a deluxe album to have a chance
Silent hill 10% radio is probably dropping this soon
She likes it 40% I lowered its chances because it’s not recieving a strong radio run at all
Thought you should know 5% needs a huge streaming boost which isn’t happening
Sunroof 90% Should make it unless it collapses
Un ratito 10% Same As Tarot
Like I Love Country Music 60% Idk how to feel about this one. it dropped super hard on streaming this week but still has room to grow on radio
The Kind Of Love We Make 100% Luke Combs usually has long radio runs with great streaming
Sticky 50% still no clue what to think of this one
She Had Me At Heads Carolina 90% Radio is just starting so this can afford a bit of a streaming loss
Vegas 80% if radio picks up soon this should make it a guarentee
Rock and A Hard Place 40% I can’t see this getting radio over fall in love so needs to keep up the streaming and sales
I ain’t worried 60% Just starting it’s run and radio usually loves one republic
Bad habit 80% Like it’s start and it should get radio soon

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jul 26, 2022 17:51:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

How did As It Was get more points than About Damn Time?

As It Was has charted for 2 more weeks in the Hot 100 than About Damn Time and had been, until this week, above it all the weeks that About Damn Time charted. A similar thing can be said about First Class, except it only has one more week and had been above About Damn Time until it was surpassed by it the last three weeks.

[rockgolf]

Jul 26, 2022 17:51:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

How did As It Was get more points than About Damn Time?

Good  question and I'm glad you asked. My method "backloads" songs that spend multiple weeks in the top 3. So a song that is spending its 16th week in the top 2 gets more points than one spending its first week at #1. It seems counter-intuitive, but I have to go this way since I have no way of knowing how long a song will spend at #1. So while actual chart points will decline for a long running chart-topper, and the points in the first weeks are bigger and tail off, my chart starts with (comparatively) fewer points and builds up.

I'm effectively making up for Harry's bigger scores at the start of the run of As It Was. It sounds weird but it works and the larger points this week in a side-effect.

[ephelia]

Jul 26, 2022 23:20:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Jul 26, 2022 17:51:25 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

How did As It Was get more points than About Damn Time?

Good  question and I'm glad you asked. My method "backloads" songs that spend multiple weeks in the top 3. So a song that is spending its 16th week in the top 2 gets more points than one spending its first week at #1. It seems counter-intuitive, but I have to go this way since I have no way of knowing how long a song will spend at #1. So while actual chart points will decline for a long running chart-topper, and the points in the first weeks are bigger and tail off, my chart starts with (comparatively) fewer points and builds up.

I'm effectively making up for Harry's bigger scores at the start of the run of As It Was. It sounds weird but it works and the larger points this week in a side-effect.

Does that mean a holdover from the previous year that is still in the top 3 in the beginning of the year will have those extra points (that were theoretically from the previous year so not in the scope of the current year-end list)? I see how this would work out fine if the song's run was fully in one tracking year, but it seems like this could result in weird effects for songs like, say, Mood in 2021, where the weeks in the top 3 it logs in the 2021 chart year were smaller than those in 2020 (point-wise) but count for more.

[Groovy]

Stay is definitely ending the year in the top 3, right, if so, Kid Laroi will have the highest YE song by a 2000s born artist which is currently with 24KGoldn and Billie Eilish where they had Mood and Bad Guy end the year at 4 in 2021 and 2019 respectively.

[mikerivera]

J-D list update. We’re now 60% of the way through the year, and there’s been a lot of movement since the last update.

1. Heat Waves* - Glass Animals 631,550
2. Stay* - The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber 554,900
3. As it Was - Harry Styles 496,610
4. Super Gremlin - Kodak Black 471,150
5. Big Energy - Latto 443,620
6. Ghost - Justin Bieber 441,360
7. Shivers* - Ed Sheeran 432,930
8. First Class - Jack Harlow 422,010
9. Bad Habits* - Ed Sheeran 416,530
10. Easy On Me* - Adele 406,060
11. Cold Heart* - Elton John & Dua Lipa 403,360
12. Enemy - Imagine Dragons ft. JID 387,140
13. That’s What I Want - Lil Nas X 382,730
14. We Don’t Talk About Bruno - Encanto Cast 357,420
15. abcdefu - Gayle 353,780
16. Woman - Doja Cat 344,670
17. Wait 4 U - Future ft. Drake & Tems 298,620
18. Need to Know* - Doja Cat 292,900
19. Industry Baby* - Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow 275,250
20. About Damn Time - Lizzo 273,560
21. Pushin P - Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug 235,200
22. Til You Can’t - Cody Johnson 226,580
23. One Right Now - Post Malone & The Weeknd 222,750
24. Numb Little Bug - Em Beihold 221,730
25. Boyfriend - Dove Cameron 217,850
26. Surface Pressure - Jessica Darrow 215,150
27. Levitating* - Dua Lipa 212,950
28. Hrs and Hrs - Muni Long 210,420
29. Good 4 U* - Olivia Rodrigo 207,750
30. Save Your Tears* - The Weeknd 203,600
31. Wasted On You - Morgan Wallen 203,000
32. MAMIII - Becky G & Karol G 199,730
33. AA - Walker Hayes 195,920
34. I Hate U - SZA 194,020
35. Bam Bam - Camila Cabello & Ed Sheeran 186,220
36. Fancy Like* - Walker Hayes 183,420
37. Me Porto Bonito - Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone 182,190
38. Sweetest Pie - Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa 178,390
39. Running Up That Hill - Kate Bush 169,100
40. Buy Dirt* - Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan 168,650
41. Titi Me Pregunto - Bad Bunny 167,530
42. You Right* - Doja Cat & The Weeknd 166,970
43. Fingers Crossed - Lauren Spencer-Smith 166,800
44. Doin’ This - Luke Combs 166,700
45. Sand in My Boots* - Morgan Wallen 160,610
46. Broadway Girls - Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen 158,480
47. Smokin Out the Window - Silk Sonic 150,900
48. Love Nwantiti - CKay 150,650
49. What Happened to Virgil - Lil Durk ft. Gunna 146,120
50. Never Say Never - Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson 145,570
51. Get Into It (Yuh) - Doja Cat 143,480
52. She’s All I Wanna Be - Tate McRae 142,450
53. Flower Shops - Ernest ft. Morgan Wallen 140,620
54. Beers On Me - Dierks Bentley ft. Hardy & Breland 138,320
55. To the Moon - JNR Choi & Sam Hopkins 137,750
56. Circles Around This Town - Maren Morris 137,430
57. Trouble With a Heartbreak - Jason Aldean 136,840
58. Moscow Mule - Bad Bunny 135,230
59. In a Minute - Lil Baby 132,370
60. The Family Madrigal - Encanto Cast 130,450
- - - - - - - - - - - - - projected cutoff - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
61. Knife Talk* - Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat 130,300
62. Late Night Talking - Harry Styles 128,510
63. Take My Name - Parmalee 125,660
64. Provenza - Karol G 125,370
65. 23 - Sam Hunt 125,190
66. Light Switch - Charlie Puth 124,820
67. PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ - Future 118,480
68. Oh My God - Adele 117,800
69. If I Was a Cowboy - Miranda Lambert 116,470
70. Damn Strait - Scotty McCreery 114,670
71. Thousand Miles - The Kid LAROI 111,530
72. Después de la Playa - Bad Bunny 109,720
73. You Proof - Morgan Wallen 109,570
74. Heart On Fire - Eric Church 109,400
75. Slow Down Summer - Thomas Rhett 108,430
76. Dos Oruguitas - Encanto Cast 107,850
77. You Should Probably Leave* - Chris Stapleton 107,270
78. By Your Side - Rod Wave 106,780
79. Something in the Orange - Zach Bryan 106,680
80. Party - Bad Bunny & Rauw Alexander 105,670

[inverse]

^ No Love should be sent to the shadow realm because its week at #13 took place in 2021, as well as several others

I think Buy Dirt would have made 2021 although there's no way to know for sure

[mikerivera]

Oh yeah, I forgot to add the asterisk for Buy Dirt. It made the list last year.

[gikem]

So I recently checked out the TOTC Discord server because I was told a couple of people over there are doing YE predictions for the Canadian Hot 100, and looking through them, I gotta say, the songs that are expected to make their YE but not in the US feel far more representative of what was actually popular this year.

To give you an idea, here are the songs that those users have projected to make it through this week that either likely won't make the 2022 US YE or didn't already make one or both YEs in 2021:

The Motto - Tiesto & Ava Max
Pepas - Farruko
Edamame - bbno$ & Rich Brian
Where Are You Now - Lost Frequencies & Calum Scott
Moth To A Flame - Swedish House Mafia & The Weeknd
Sacrifice - The Weeknd
Light Switch - Charlie Puth
CTRL + ALT + DEL - Reve
When You're Gone - Shawn Mendes
Peru - Fireboy DML & Ed Sheeran
Do It To It - ACRAZE ft. Cherish
Lost - Frank Ocean (!!!)
Out Of Time - The Weeknd
Middle Of The Night - Elley Duhe
Nail Tech - Jack Harlow
2Step - Ed Sheeran ft. Lil Baby (this may be on the cusp in the US)
My Universe - Coldplay & BTS
Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) - Taylor Swift

Overall, I think this is a much better set of songs than what the US is likely to get instead of these (which mostly includes our own repeats, some country, some hip-hop/R&B, some Latin, and 3 additional Christmas songs).

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Canadian YE already better than US YE just with some of Dawn FM songs being locked while US doesn't have any (only a "Save Your Tears" re-entry)

[Groovy]

Another predictor has lowered the cutoff which means Kiss Me More and A Holly Jolly Christmas are locked for the YE. 

[inverse]

Jul 27, 2022 22:54:03 GMT -5 gikem said:

So I recently checked out the TOTC Discord server because I was told a couple of people over there are doing YE predictions for the Canadian Hot 100, and looking through them, I gotta say, the songs that are expected to make their YE but not in the US feel far more representative of what was actually popular this year.

To give you an idea, here are the songs that those users have projected to make it through this week that either likely won't make the 2022 US YE or didn't already make one or both YEs in 2021:

The Motto - Tiesto & Ava Max
Pepas - Farruko
Edamame - bbno$ & Rich Brian
Where Are You Now - Lost Frequencies & Calum Scott
Moth To A Flame - Swedish House Mafia & The Weeknd
Sacrifice - The Weeknd
Light Switch - Charlie Puth
CTRL + ALT + DEL - Reve
When You're Gone - Shawn Mendes
Peru - Fireboy DML & Ed Sheeran
Do It To It - ACRAZE ft. Cherish
Lost - Frank Ocean (!!!)
Out Of Time - The Weeknd
Middle Of The Night - Elley Duhe
Nail Tech - Jack Harlow
2Step - Ed Sheeran ft. Lil Baby (this may be on the cusp in the US)
My Universe - Coldplay & BTS
Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) - Taylor Swift

Overall, I think this is a much better set of songs than what the US is likely to get instead of these (which mostly includes our own repeats, some country, some hip-hop/R&B, some Latin, and 3 additional Christmas songs).

18 songs & 16 W's that's nutty

Take My Breath will be back too which means the Weeknd will have 6 songs on the yearend

[mikerivera]

Jul 28, 2022 15:18:48 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jul 27, 2022 22:54:03 GMT -5 gikem said:

So I recently checked out the TOTC Discord server because I was told a couple of people over there are doing YE predictions for the Canadian Hot 100, and looking through them, I gotta say, the songs that are expected to make their YE but not in the US feel far more representative of what was actually popular this year.

To give you an idea, here are the songs that those users have projected to make it through this week that either likely won't make the 2022 US YE or didn't already make one or both YEs in 2021:

The Motto - Tiesto & Ava Max
Pepas - Farruko
Edamame - bbno$ & Rich Brian
Where Are You Now - Lost Frequencies & Calum Scott
Moth To A Flame - Swedish House Mafia & The Weeknd
Sacrifice - The Weeknd
Light Switch - Charlie Puth
CTRL + ALT + DEL - Reve
When You're Gone - Shawn Mendes
Peru - Fireboy DML & Ed Sheeran
Do It To It - ACRAZE ft. Cherish
Lost - Frank Ocean (!!!)
Out Of Time - The Weeknd
Middle Of The Night - Elley Duhe
Nail Tech - Jack Harlow
2Step - Ed Sheeran ft. Lil Baby (this may be on the cusp in the US)
My Universe - Coldplay & BTS
Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) - Taylor Swift

Overall, I think this is a much better set of songs than what the US is likely to get instead of these (which mostly includes our own repeats, some country, some hip-hop/R&B, some Latin, and 3 additional Christmas songs).

18 songs & 16 W's that's nutty

Take My Breath will be back too which means the Weeknd will have 6 songs on the yearend

I’m curious, what are the 2 Ls?

[gikem]

I mean, for me, it’s technically 4 L’s, with two songs I simply don’t care for (The Motto, 2Step) and two that I actively dislike (Light Switch, Do It To It). The rest are decent at worst with a few real gems that I’m livid the US either never got or never turned into legit hits.

[inverse]

Jul 28, 2022 16:21:39 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Jul 28, 2022 15:18:48 GMT -5 inverse said:

18 songs & 16 W's that's nutty

Take My Breath will be back too which means the Weeknd will have 6 songs on the yearend

I’m curious, what are the 2 Ls?

Do It To It massive L
Light Switch isn't an L per se but it's not that good so not a W either kind of a wash

[rockgolf]

Jul 27, 2022 2:04:02 GMT -5 ephelia said:

Jul 26, 2022 23:20:20 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Does that mean a holdover from the previous year that is still in the top 3 in the beginning of the year will have those extra points (that were theoretically from the previous year so not in the scope of the current year-end list)? I see how this would work out fine if the song's run was fully in one tracking year, but it seems like this could result in weird effects for songs like, say, Mood in 2021, where the weeks in the top 3 it logs in the 2021 chart year were smaller than those in 2020 (point-wise) but count for more.

No. I only include points earned in the current Billboard calendar year for my top 100 predictions. 

[Groovy]