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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 31, 2022 8:25:45 GMT -5
If Beyoncé doesn’t knock out Stay, then the Top 2 of Heat Waves and Stay are 100% locked. By that point, there just won’t be enough time for AIW (or any other song, for that matter) to catch Stay by the end of the Billboard tracking year in November.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 31, 2022 23:25:28 GMT -5
That seems pretty fair to me. I'm curious to see whether there will be enough time for songs to raise the floor for the YE list as well.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 1, 2022 11:30:13 GMT -5
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 2, 2022 10:45:01 GMT -5
Heat Waves is about to be the first YE chart topper in a while that I’ve put on a worst list, we’ve had very strong YE number 1s over the past few years.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Aug 2, 2022 11:47:22 GMT -5
My updates including the Aug 6 chart: Bad Habits becomes only the second song in the current year-end top ten to fall off the weekly chart. Does it hang onto its top ten perch in the predictive year-end? Maybe not... EST Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 12398 | 2 | As It Was | Harry Styles | 11628 | 3 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 10449 | 4 | First Class | Jack Harlow | 7913 | 5 | Easy On Me | Adele | 7889 | 6 | Ghost | Justin Bieber | 7765 | 7 | Big Energy | Latto | 7571 | 8 | Shivers | Ed Sheeran | 7567 | 9 | About Damn Time | Lizzo | 7555 | 10 | Super Gremlin | Kodak Black | 6969 | 11 | Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) | Elton John & Dua Lipa | 6937 | 12 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 6433 | 13 | Thats What I Want | Lil Nas X | 5818 | 14 | Wait For U | Future ft. Drake & Tems | 5802 | 15 | Enemy | Imagine Dragons X JID | 5742 | 16 | We Don't Talk About Bruno | Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast | 5195 | 17 | Woman | Doja Cat | 5001 | 18 | abcdefu | GAYLE | 4976 | 19 | Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) | Kate Bush | 4896 | 20 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 4846 | 21 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 4800 | 22 | Me Porto Bonito | Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone | 4545 | 23 | Numb Little Bug | Em Beihold | 4274 | 24 | Wasted On You | Morgan Wallen | 4090 | 25 | Late Night Talking | Harry Styles | 3938 | 26 | One Right Now | Post Malone & The Weeknd | 3899 | 27 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 3627 | 28 | Titi Me Pregunto | Bad Bunny | 3613 | 29 | I Like You (A Happier Song) | Post Malone ft. Doja Cat | 3441 | 30 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 3439 | 31 | Boyfriend | Dove Cameron | 3377 | 32 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3338 | 33 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 3314 | 34 | Break My Soul | Beyonce | 3297 | 35 | 'Til You Can't | Cody Johnson | 3259 | 36 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3047 | 37 | Pushin P | Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug | 2903 | 38 | Smokin Out The Window | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 2901 | 39 | I Hate U | SZA | 2852 | 40 | Jimmy Cooks | Drake ft. 21 Savage | 2841 | 41 | Buy Dirt | Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan | 2830 | 42 | Hrs And Hrs | Muni Long | 2740 | 43 | Surface Pressure | Jessica Darrow | 2718 | 44 | Moscow Mule | Bad Bunny | 2714 | 45 | Get Into It (Yuh) | Doja Cat | 2601 | 46 | MAMIII | Becky G X Karol G | 2582 | 47 | Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) | CKay | 2559 | 48 | Sunroof | Nicky Youre & dazy | 2557 | 49 | Sand In My Boots | Morgan Wallen | 2529 | 50 | AA | Walker Hayes | 2438 | 51 | The Kind Of Love We Make | Luke Combs | 2398 | 52 | Sweetest Pie | Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa | 2375 | 53 | You Proof | Morgan Wallen | 2369 | 54 | Bam Bam | Camila Cabello ft. Ed Sheeran | 2365 | 55 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 2333 | 56 | In A Minute | Lil Baby | 2326 | 57 | Glimpse Of Us | Joji | 2231 | 58 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2182 | 59 | Fingers Crossed | Lauren Spencer-Smith | 2175 | 60 | Provenza | Karol G | 2139 | 61 | Doin' This | Luke Combs | 2128 | 62 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2104 | 63 | Oh My God | Adele | 2006 | 64 | Better Days | NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G | 1964 | 65 | Meet Me At Our Spot | THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole | 1952 | 66 | Broadway Girls | Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen | 1925 | 67 | Damn Strait | Scotty McCreery | 1907 | 68 | What Happened To Virgil | Lil Durk ft. Gunna | 1905 | 69 | Bad Habit | Steve Lacy | 1903 | 70 | You Should Probably Leave | Chris Stapleton | 1902 | 71 | Never Say Never | Cole Swindell / Lainey Wilson | 1803 | 72 | Like I Love Country Music | Kane Brown | 1759 | 73 | She's All I Wanna Be | Tate McRae | 1752 | 74 | The Family Madrigal | Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast | 1730 | 75 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 1685 | 76 | She Had Me At Heads Carolina | Cole Swindell | 1683 | 77 | Trouble With A Heartbreak | Jason Aldean | 1674 | 78 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1656 | 79 | Light Switch | Charlie Puth | 1648 | 80 | Vegas | Doja Cat | 1645 | 81 | Beers On Me | Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY | 1641 | 82 | One Mississippi | Kane Brown | 1614 | 83 | Take My Name | Parmalee | 1612 | 84 | To The Moon! | JNR CHOI & Sam Tompkins | 1584 | 85 | Fall In Love | Bailey Zimmerman | 1529 | 86 | Puffin On Zootiez | Future | 1523 | 87 | All Too Well (Taylor's Version) | Taylor Swift | 1516 | 88 | I Ain't Worried | OneRepublic | 1504 | 89 | Heart On Fire | Eric Church | 1492 | 90 | Something In The Orange | Zach Bryan | 1480 | 91 | Thinking 'Bout You | Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter | 1476 | 92 | Flower Shops | ERNEST ft. Morgan Wallen | 1460 | 93 | Thousand Miles | The Kid LAROI | 1444 | 94 | 23 | Sam Hunt | 1442 | 95 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1435 | 96 | To Be Loved By You | Parker McCollum | 1419 | 97 | Despues de La Playa | Bad Bunny | 1416 | 98 | Party | Bad Bunny & Rauw Alejandro | 1385 | 99 | Circles Around This Town | Maren Morris | 1383 | 100 | Who Want Smoke?? | Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage | 1378 |
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 2, 2022 11:56:51 GMT -5
Heat Waves is about to be the first YE chart topper in a while that I’ve put on a worst list, we’ve had very strong YE number 1s over the past few years. 2018 was pretty abysmal. Are you talking about the years since then?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 2, 2022 12:28:02 GMT -5
Heat Waves is about to be the first YE chart topper in a while that I’ve put on a worst list, we’ve had very strong YE number 1s over the past few years. 2018 was pretty abysmal. Are you talking about the years since then? Even God's Plan wasn't all that bad for me to put it on a worst list, I think the last time I truly didn't like a YE chart topper to the point where I put it on a worst list was Boom Boom Pow in 2009.
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 2, 2022 12:34:33 GMT -5
It was Sad! that made my worst list in 2018, though I didn't have a lot of nice things to say about Girls Like You either.
Nothing this year has to offer is more unpleasant than those two #1s for me at least. This year just seems like a very average/mid sort of year, it's been a challenge to come up with compelling best and worst list material for me from the YE so far, at least enough songs to fill out both lists after some obvious choices either way.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 2, 2022 12:45:41 GMT -5
I used to think 2018 was a really bad year until this year came along. At least in 2018, the charts were fresh and moved kind of quickly. Also, I really miss the Drake and Post domination. Though, I’m still annoyed at Lucid Dreams not reaching #1, and Girls Like You being one of the biggest reasons why.
In 2022, the charts have been stale and there have been way too many songs that have lingered on the charts way too long.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 2, 2022 12:55:18 GMT -5
It was Sad! that made my worst list in 2018, though I didn't have a lot of nice things to say about Girls Like You either. Nothing this year has to offer is more unpleasant than those two #1s for me at least. This year just seems like a very average/mid sort of year, it's been a challenge to come up with compelling best and worst list material for me from the YE so far, at least enough songs to fill out both lists after some obvious choices either way. Oh, you're talking about number 1s in general, the number 1s this year haven't been nearly as bad as last year as the ones in 2018 but aren't anything to write home about. 2022 has been more disappointing than it is bad and Heat Waves topping the YE symbolizes that.
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 2, 2022 13:12:03 GMT -5
It was Sad! that made my worst list in 2018, though I didn't have a lot of nice things to say about Girls Like You either. Nothing this year has to offer is more unpleasant than those two #1s for me at least. This year just seems like a very average/mid sort of year, it's been a challenge to come up with compelling best and worst list material for me from the YE so far, at least enough songs to fill out both lists after some obvious choices either way. Oh, you're talking about number 1s in general, the number 1s this year haven't been nearly as bad as last year as the ones in 2018 but aren't anything to write home about. 2022 has been more disappointing than it is bad and Heat Waves topping the YE symbolizes that. Oh, you meant YE #1 hit, that makes more sense then .
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Aug 2, 2022 13:48:51 GMT -5
2018 was pretty abysmal. Are you talking about the years since then? Even God's Plan wasn't all that bad for me to put it on a worst list, I think the last time I truly didn't like a YE chart topper to the point where I put it on a worst list was Boom Boom Pow in 2009. For me, it’s Everything I Do all the way back in 1991. In fact, I can’t think of very many YE #1’s that I would consider bad. Battle of New Orleans (1959), Ballad of the Green Berets (1966), Love Will Keep Us Together (1975), and Tonight’s The Night (1977) are the only ones that spring to mind. Of course, there have been several mediocre ones too, but not to the same level of awful as those.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Aug 2, 2022 14:00:21 GMT -5
This year has been pretty painfully slow for the charts. I find myself rooting for newer songs just because they're fresher.
My ideal (realistic) top 10 probably looks something like this: 1. As It Was 2. Heat Waves 3. Stay 4. About Damn Time 5. Easy On Me 6. Ghost 7. Big Energy 8. Shivers 9. First Class 10. Cold Heart
For this to happen though, As It Was & About Damn Time would need to hold on pretty strong through November.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Aug 2, 2022 14:18:19 GMT -5
Even God's Plan wasn't all that bad for me to put it on a worst list, I think the last time I truly didn't like a YE chart topper to the point where I put it on a worst list was Boom Boom Pow in 2009. For me, it’s Everything I Do all the way back in 1991. In fact, I can’t think of very many YE #1’s that I would consider bad. Battle of New Orleans (1959), Ballad of the Green Berets (1966), Love Will Keep Us Together (1975), and Tonight’s The Night (1977) are the only ones that spring to mind. Of course, there have been several mediocre ones too, but not to the same level of awful as those. There are few that come to mind aside from the ones you mentioned such as, Bad Day (2006), How You Remind Me (2002), Macarena (1996), Look Away (1989) that I find terrible.
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Aug 2, 2022 15:23:58 GMT -5
As an Italian citizen, I’m pretty shocked to see how slow the Hot 100 chart has been this year. Too many repeats, songs from 2021 etc. Or is it just my impression?
In Italy, probably due to Sanremo in February, summer hits competing for the #1 spot etc. we’ve had a very dynamic and strong 2022 so far.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Aug 2, 2022 15:53:17 GMT -5
For me, it’s Everything I Do all the way back in 1991. In fact, I can’t think of very many YE #1’s that I would consider bad. Battle of New Orleans (1959), Ballad of the Green Berets (1966), Love Will Keep Us Together (1975), and Tonight’s The Night (1977) are the only ones that spring to mind. Of course, there have been several mediocre ones too, but not to the same level of awful as those. There are few that come to mind aside from the ones you mentioned such as, Bad Day (2006), How You Remind Me (2002), Macarena (1996), Look Away (1989) that I find terrible. Oh yeah, forgot about Look Away and Macarena. To be fair, though, the former is one of the most forgotten Chicago hits even of that era, and the latter is such an iconic dance that it’s easy to forget that the version that became an actual hit was totally awful.
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artistry
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Post by artistry on Aug 2, 2022 17:42:18 GMT -5
Is there still a possibility that songs in the bottom 50 of the Hot 100 can make the year end list? I am looking at songs such as Son of a Sinner, F.N.F (Let's Go), Unstoppable and Until I Found You. Is 12 weeks enough time to get these songs the amount of points needed?
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Post by puwrpler04 on Aug 2, 2022 18:00:04 GMT -5
Is there still a possibility that songs in the bottom 50 of the Hot 100 can make the year end list? I am looking at songs such as Son of a Sinner, F.N.F (Let's Go), Unstoppable and Until I Found You. Is 12 weeks enough time to get these songs the amount of points needed? Only one with a sliver of a chance is son of a sinner the rest need arohnd 120,000 points in 12 weeks and son of a sinner needs the same but I can see this going viral
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Aug 2, 2022 22:13:26 GMT -5
What are the odds of a 53 week year for 2022?
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Post by reputainbow on Aug 2, 2022 22:28:31 GMT -5
{Week 38} 1 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 10447 2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 9405 3 Easy on Me (Adele) 7547 4 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 6889.4 5 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 6853 6 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 6370 7 Big Energy (Latto) 6344.8 8 As It Was (Harry Styles) 6303 9 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 6226 10 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 5862 11 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 5400.8 12 First Class (Jack Harlow) 5333 13 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 5314 14 abcdefu (GAYLE) 5135.2 15 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 5121.2 16 Woman (Doja Cat) 4814.2 17 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 4803 18 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 4546 19 Wait For U (Future/Drake/Tems) 3934 20 About Damn Time (Lizzo) 3906 21 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 3659 22 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3387 23 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 3254.2 24 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3134 25 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 3117 26 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 3068 27 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 2875 28 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2824.4 29 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2820 30 Numb Little Bug (Em Beihold) 2817.6 31 Boyfriend (Dove Cameron) 2763.6 32 I Hate U (SZA) 2696 33 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 2628.4 34 Me Porto Bonito (Bad Bunny/Chencho Corleone) 2590 35 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 2577.2 36 Wasted on You (Morgan Wallen) 2574 37 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 2559 38 Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) (Kate Bush) 2457 39 Mamiii (Becky G/Karol G) 2395.2 40 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 2393.4 41 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 2375.8 42 AA (Walker Hayes) 2340 43 Bam Bam (Camila Cabello/Ed Sheeran) 2250.2 44 Sweetest Pie (Megan Thee Stallion/Dua Lipa) 2227.8 45 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 2198 46 Titi Me Pregunto (Bad Bunny) 2149 47 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 2126.4 48 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124 49 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 2037.4 50 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2030 51 Oh My God (Adele) 1947.8 52 Get Into It (Yuh) (Doja Cat) 1911.8 53 Late Night Talking (Harry Styles) 1886 54 What Happened to Virgil (Lil Durk/Gunna) 1851.8 55 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 1847.4 56 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1845.4 57 Moscow Mule (Bad Bunny) 1835 58 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1799.4 59 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1795.8 60 Never Say Never (Cole Swindell/Lainey Wilson) 1784.4 61 Flower Shops (ERNEST/Morgan Wallen) 1767.2 62 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739 63 Circles Around This Town (Maren Morris) 1724.4 64 She's All I Wanna Be (Tate Mcrae) 1702.6 65 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1695 66 In a Minute (Lil Baby) 1679.8 67 Trouble With a Heartbreak (Jason Aldean) 1679.4 68 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 1676.4 69 To the Moon (Jnr Choi) 1633.2 70 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 1631.4 71 Take My Name (Parmalee) 1613.2 72 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 1612 73 Provenza (Karol G) 1584 74 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1574.4 75 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571 76 Light Switch (Charlie Puth) 1565.8 77 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548 78 23 (Sam Hunt) 1531.6 79 You Proof (Morgan Wallen) 1506 80 Jimmy Cooks (Drake/21 Savage) 1500 81 Damn Strait (Scotty McCreery) 1486.2 82 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485 83 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 1482.2 84 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 1474.8 85 Puffin on Zooties (Future) 1471.2 86 If I Was a Cowboy (Miranda Lambert) 1451.2 87 Me or Sum (Nardo Wick/Lil Baby/Future) 1423.2 88 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2 89 Thousand Miles (Kid Laroi) 1380.4 90 Despues De La Playa (Bad Bunny) 1376.6 91 I Like You (A Happier Song) (Post Malone/Doja Cat) 1362 92 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1355.8 93 Something In the Orange (Zach Bryan) 1346.8 94 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 1312.6 95 Never Wanted to Be That Girl (Carly Pearce/Ashley McBryde) 1309.6 96 Break My Soul (Beyonce) 1303 97 Slow Down Summer (Thomas Rhett) 1303 98 Party (Bad Bunny/Rauw Alejandro) 1298.6 99 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 1296.2 100 Do We Have a Problem? (Nicki Minaj/Lil Baby) 1295.4
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 2, 2022 22:47:40 GMT -5
What are the odds of a 53 week year for 2022? Hard to say. Eventually they will have to do one. The last one, if I'm not mistaken, was in 2013 and the one before that in 2002.
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 3, 2022 0:52:59 GMT -5
I suppose if it hasn't happened by 2024 we can expect it about then.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Aug 3, 2022 1:03:38 GMT -5
What are Me Porto Bonito's chances of top 25. It would be cool to see a song be that high with just streaming.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Aug 3, 2022 4:23:00 GMT -5
What are Me Porto Bonito's chances of top 25. It would be cool to see a song be that high with just streaming. I think if it keeps the same amount of points it has now and repeats that for the next 15 or so weeks til the tracking year ends, it would probably make it. Though given i don't expect that to happen, i wouldnt be all that shocked if the song falls short of the top 25.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 3, 2022 8:16:40 GMT -5
What are the odds of a 53 week year for 2022? Hard to say. Eventually they will have to do one. The last one, if I'm not mistaken, was in 2013 and the one before that in 2002. If you’re right, then 2019 should have been the 53-week year since it has the same calendar as 2002 and 2013 (starting and ending on a Tuesday). At a minimum, Billboard will need at least 3 53-week years by 2041 to prevent the YE tracking period from going any earlier. Here are the 53-week year possibilities: 2022/2033/2039 (all years start and end on Saturdays) 2023/2028/2034 (all years end on Sundays) 2023/2034/2040 (all years start on Sundays) 2024/2029/2035 (all years start on Mondays) 2024/2030/2041 (all years end on Tuesdays)
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Post by puwrpler04 on Aug 3, 2022 14:56:35 GMT -5
Could bad bunny’s physical cd of Un Verano Sin Ti helps songs like Despuses De La Playa,Party,Efecto, and Ojitos Lindos make the YE?
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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 3, 2022 16:26:51 GMT -5
No, physical sales of a cd aren't going to help the individual songs on the Hot 100. Streaming helps with both song and album charts, as does TEA through song sales, but just like radio only counts for Hot 100 and not for album sales, so too hard copies of albums only count for the Top 200 albums chart.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Aug 3, 2022 19:34:23 GMT -5
There are few that come to mind aside from the ones you mentioned such as, Bad Day (2006), How You Remind Me (2002), Macarena (1996), Look Away (1989) that I find terrible. Oh yeah, forgot about Look Away and Macarena. To be fair, though, the former is one of the most forgotten Chicago hits even of that era, and the latter is such an iconic dance that it’s easy to forget that the version that became an actual hit was totally awful. Ah you guys are no fun, Bad Day, How You Remind Me, and Macarena are some of my favorite pop songs ever!! (Yes I'm not ashamed, sorry if this is vomit-inducing for some of you). Although the original version of the Macarena is very good too.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Aug 3, 2022 22:07:33 GMT -5
Week 38!!
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Aug 4, 2022 2:23:51 GMT -5
What are Me Porto Bonito's chances of top 25. It would be cool to see a song be that high with just streaming. at 12.5k/week for 14 weeks it would finish about 370,000, above WDTAB and likely in the top 25. I don't even think it needs that much, 330k-340k might do it which basically means it's got a very realistic shot if it's still here by the end of the year
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