2022 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 10)

[rockgolf]

"Locking top 25 next week: Easy On Me"

Realistically, isn't it a lead pipe cinch to be at least top 2 of the year already? It's still way in front #1 on radio, and will certainly be still on the charts this summer. One exceptional hit released this month might have time to overtake it, but not two. 

[kingvavis]

Feb 4, 2022 14:40:30 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

"Locking top 25 next week: Easy On Me"

Realistically, isn't it a lead pipe cinch to be at least top 2 of the year already? It's still way in front #1 on radio, and will certainly be still on the charts this summer. One exceptional hit released this month might have time to overtake it, but not two. 

It will likely end around the top 2 or 3, but they say locking top 25 because it passes the top 25 cutoff in points from last year.

[mikerivera]

Considering how fast Hello fell off, I wouldn’t consider Easy On Me a “certainty” to be on the charts until the summer.

[puwrpler04]

My predictions so far for 2022 Year end
(Note songs that already clinched aren’t here)

Safe:Fancy Like,Good 4 you,One Right Now,Oh My God,Ghost,Surface Pressure,Abcdefu,We Don’t Talk About Bruno.

Likely:All Too Well,Woman,Kiss Me More,Essence,You Right,Knife Talk,I Hate You,Love Nwantiti,Better Days,Buy Dirt,That’s What I Want,Levitating,Hrs & Hrs,Pushin P.

50/50:All Encanto below top 10 But above top 50,Enemy,Big Energy,Fingers Crossed,You Should Prolly Leave,Save Your Tears.

Unlikely:No Love,Who Want Smoke?,Message In A Bottle,Broadway Girls.
(these all depend on if radio picks them up)

Potential Future Sleeper Hits:Circles Around This Town,I Love You So,Pressure,Doin This,Beers On Me,AA,To Be Loved By You,Till You Cant,Cold December.

Depends on If Radio Holds:Thinking Bout You,One Mississippi,Sand In My Boots,If I Didn’t Love You,Meet Me At Our Spot,Sacrifice.(These have a better chance then I think some people give given the lack of album bombs coming up especially if Kanye dosent drop)

[joshtheking]

I could see Broadway Girls getting a radio run

[nathanalbright]

Feb 8, 2022 10:47:28 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I could see Broadway Girls getting a radio run

It could happen, but this is a sort of song that would seem to need a genre to hop on board.  What format would you see picking it up enough for the song to stick around?    

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 13}1 Easy on Me (Adele) 4702
2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 3845
3 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 3246
4 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 2986
5 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 2823
6 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 2408
7 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 2399
8 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 2230
9 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2165
10 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124
11 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 2115.4
12 abcdefu (GAYLE) 1905.2
13 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 1827
14 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 1802
15 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 1789
16 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 1739
17 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739
18 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 1686
19 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571
20 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 1537
21 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1528.2
22 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 1524
23 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485
24 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 1472
25 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1465
26 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1450
27 Oh My God (Adele) 1447.6
28 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 1423
29 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 1411.4
30 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 1404.4
31 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 1319
32 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1294.4
33 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1293.2
34 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8
35 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1284.8
36 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1241.2
37 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 1228
38 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1202
39 I Hate U (SZA) 1164
40 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1129
41 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 1116.8
42 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1094.4
43 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1088.4
44 Big Energy (Latto) 1074.8
45 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1054
46 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 1052.8
47 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 1031.6
48 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 1027.8
49 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1023
50 Woman (Doja Cat) 977.2
51 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 946.2
52 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 938.2
53 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 920
54 Have Mercy (Chloe) 917.6
55 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 908
56 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 903.8
57 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 898.8
58 For Tonight (Giveon) 861.2
59 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 856.6
60 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 853.6
61 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 817
62 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 782
63 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 773.8
64 Beggin' (Maneskin) 773
65 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 771.6
66 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 738.4
67 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 730.8
68 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 730
69 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 722
70 Same Boat (Zac Brown Band) 721.2
71 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 714
72 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 689.6
73 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 660
74 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season (Andy Williams) 660
75 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 658
76 Scorpio (Moneybagg Yo) 653.6
77 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 652
78 Tequila Little Time (Jon Pardi) 640.8
79 Too Easy (Gunna/Future) 639
80 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 623.2
81 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 610
82 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 609.2
83 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 596
84 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 587
85 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 582.8
86 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 580
87 Pepas (Farruko) 567.2
88 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 563.2
89 Already Dead (Juice WRLD) 548.4
90 Bubbly (Young Thug/Drake/Travis Scott) 543.6
91 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 542.4
92 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 540.6
93 Sacrifice (The Weeknd) 524
94 Take My Breath (The Weeknd) 514.8
95 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 512.8
96 Knowing You (Kenny Chesney) 482.8
97 Do It To It (Acraze/Cherish) 462
98 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 450.8
99 Fair Trade (Drake/Travis Scott) 446
100 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 417

[joshtheking]

Feb 8, 2022 13:52:15 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Feb 8, 2022 10:47:28 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I could see Broadway Girls getting a radio run

It could happen, but this is a sort of song that would seem to need a genre to hop on board.  What format would you see picking it up enough for the song to stick around?    

Honestly, Pop lol

[Abbaschand]

Well, since it's been 13 weeks of charts, I think it's time to bring out my own predictions.

My trusty (yet faulty) point system
No. Points
1 10
2-3 9
4-5 8
6-10 7
11-15 6
16-20 5.5
21-25 5
26-30 4.5
31-40 4
41-50 3.5
51-60 3
61-70 2.5
71-80 2
81-90 1.5
91-100 1

YE cutoff = 55.5
Pred. cutoff = 20

Week 13/52
1 Easy On Me 123
2 Stay 107
3 Heat Waves 100
4 Shivers 90
5 Industry Baby 89
6 Need to Know 84
7 Cold Heart 78.5
8 Bad Habits 78.5
9 Smokin' Out the Window 75.5
10 Super Gremlin 66.5
11 Good 4 U 65.5
12 ABCDEFU 63.5
13 Fancy Like 63.5
14 One Right Now 61.5
15 Ghost 61
16 All I Want for Christmas Is You 58
17 That's What I Want 57
18 Essence (Remix) 54.5
19 You Right 53.5
20 Better Days 52.5
21 Kiss Me More 52.5
22 Buy Dirt 51
23 Oh My God 50.5
24 Love Nwantiti 50.5
25 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree 50
26 Knife Talk 50
27 We Don't Talk About Bruno 48.5
28 Save Your Tears (Remix) 48
29 Meet Me At Our Spot 47.5
30 Thinking 'Bout You 47
31 Jingle Bell Rock 45.5
32 Way 2 Sexy 45.5
33 All Too Well 45
34 You Should Probably Leave 44.5
35 Happier Than Ever 44.5
36 Levitating 44
37 A Holly Jolly Christmas 43.5
38 I Hate U 39.5
39 If I Didn't Love You 39
40 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 38.5
41 Sand In My Boots 38
42 Who Want Smoke?? 38
43 One Mississippi 37.5
44 Last Christmas 36
45 Surface Pressure 36
46 Girls Want Girls 36
47 Big Energy 34.5
48 Whiskey and Rain 34.5
49 Chosen 34
50 Feliz Navidad 31.5
51 Sleigh Ride 30
52 Enemy 30
53 Woman 30
54 Have Mercy 29
55 The Christmas Song 28.5
56 My Universe 28.5
57 Pushin' P 28
58 Til You Can't 28
59 Freedom Was a Highway 28
60 Beggin' 28
61 Broadway Girls 27.5
62 Hrs and Hrs 27
63 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 26
64 Underneath the Tree 26
65 Christmas 26
66 Message In a Bottle 25
67 Santa Tell Me 24
68 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 24
69 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season 24
70 White Christmas 24
71 For Tonight 23
72 By Your Side 22.5
73 It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas (PC) 22
74 It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas (MB) 21.5
75 Run Rudolph Run 21.5
76 Same Boat 21.5
77 Fingers Crossed 21
78 Home for the Holidays 21
79 Pepas 20.5
80 Heart On Fire 20

[rockgolf]

A dull week, ending on Feb 12, 2022. Here's how I think the race for the year-end top 100 currently looks.

And here's where things are headed, based on usual chart decay patterns for existing songs:

Est. Year end	Song	Artist	Y/E Est Pts
1	Easy On Me	Adele	9963
2	Stay	The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber	6769
3	Heat Waves	Glass Animals	6695
4	We Don't Talk About Bruno	Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast	6575
5	Shivers	Ed Sheeran	5098
6	Need To Know	Doja Cat	4731
7	Super Gremlin	Kodak Black	4689
8	abcdefu	GAYLE	4274
9	Industry Baby	Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow	4124
10	Bad Habits	Ed Sheeran	3805
11	Cold Heart (PNAU Remix)	Elton John & Dua Lipa	3785
12	Smokin Out The Window	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	3638
13	Surface Pressure	Jessica Darrow	3310
14	Ghost	Justin Bieber	3237
15	Pushin P	Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug	3087
16	Thats What I Want	Lil Nas X	3072
17	Good 4 U	Olivia Rodrigo	2744
18	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	2718
19	Levitating	Dua Lipa	2714
20	One Right Now	Post Malone & The Weeknd	2640
21	Fancy Like	Walker Hayes	2618
22	Oh My God	Adele	2426
23	Better Days	NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G	2372
24	Buy Dirt	Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan	2325
25	Knife Talk	Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat	2304
26	Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah)	CKay	2195
27	You Should Probably Leave	Chris Stapleton	2152
28	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2104
29	Hrs And Hrs	Muni Long	2094
30	Essence	Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems	2072
31	You Right	Doja Cat & The Weeknd	2030
32	Kiss Me More	Doja Cat ft. SZA	2009
33	I Hate U	SZA	2008
34	The Family Madrigal	Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast	1865
35	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1656
36	Meet Me At Our Spot	THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole	1501
37	Sand In My Boots	Morgan Wallen	1489
38	Thinking 'Bout You	Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter	1477
39	Big Energy	Latto	1456
40	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1435
41	All Too Well (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1417
42	Way 2 Sexy	Drake ft. Future & Young Thug	1347
43	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1343
44	Happier Than Ever	Billie Eilish	1322
45	Woman	Doja Cat	1263
46	If I Didn't Love You	Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood	1253
47	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1184
48	Who Want Smoke??	Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage	1164
49	One Mississippi	Kane Brown	1090
50	Girls Want Girls	Drake ft. Lil Baby	1075
51	Last Christmas	Wham!	1071
52	Whiskey And Rain	Michael Ray	1062
53	What Else Can I Do?	Diane Guerrero & Stephanie Beatriz	1054
54	Chosen	Blxst & Tyga ft. Ty Dolla $ign	1015
55	Fingers Crossed	Lauren Spencer-Smith	1000
56	Enemy	Imagine Dragons X JID	986
57	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	951
58	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	896
59	Have Mercy	Chloe	869
60	Sacrifice	The Weeknd	867
61	Dos Oruguitas	Sebastian Yatra	854
62	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	848
63	My Universe	Coldplay x BTS	843
64	Beggin'	Maneskin	828
65	Broadway Girls	Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen	825
66	Freedom Was A Highway	Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley	801
67	'Til You Can't	Cody Johnson	792
68	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	777
69	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	767
70	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	765
71	Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season	Andy Williams	725
72	Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer	Gene Autry	714
73	Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) (From The Vault)	Taylor Swift	709
73	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	709
75	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	704
76	For Tonight	Giveon	682
77	By Your Side	Rod Wave	678
78	No Love	Summer Walker & SZA	666
79	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	654
80	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Michael Buble	645
81	Run Rudolph Run	Chuck Berry	643
82	Same Boat	Zac Brown Band	634
83	(There's No Place Like) Home For The Holidays	Perry Como	632
84	Pepas	Farruko	599
85	Heart On Fire	Eric Church	592
86	Cold As You	Luke Combs	578
87	Half Of My Hometown	Kelsea Ballerini ft. Kenny Chesney	577
88	To Be Loved By You	Parker McCollum	564
89	Too Easy	Gunna & Future	552
90	Fingers Crossed	Lauren Spencer Smith	514
91	Family Ties	Baby Keem & Kendrick Lamar	513
92	Scorpio	Moneybagg Yo	512
93	Already Dead	Juice WRLD	495
94	Tequila Little Time	Jon Pardi	456
95	Take My Breath	The Weeknd	436
95	Leave The Door Open	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	436
97	Doin' This	Luke Combs	426
98	Knowing You	Kenny Chesney	408
99	Gyalis	Capella Grey	375
100	Do It To It	Acraze ft. Cherish	362

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 13..

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

^ My guess for the Re-Entries for 2022 YE will be around 10-12 with the already locked (+ "Fancy Like" and "Good 4 U" locking soon) and any of these songs

- Kiss Me More
- You Right
- Essence
- Save Your Tears (long shot)
- Levitating (same as "Save Your Tears")
- Knife Talk

[atg]

If Save Your Tears makes the YE list and not Sacrifice then that’s really bad for this era but hopefully that doesn’t happen..

[mikerivera]

Dec 9, 2021 9:15:10 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Another hot take I must drop, The Joker and The Queen will make the YE and even hit number 1 when Ed releases the version with Taylor Swift on it.

Well, looks like that version is coming. Let's see if the rest of your prediction comes true. I'm sad that Overpass Graffiti never got a real push though

[Groovy]

[85la]

It's pretty impressive how big of a hit Need to Know has become. Didn't realize it has already spent 34 weeks on the chart and made the top 50 year-end last year, and in all likelihood will rank much higher this year. It ranks up there with the success of Kiss Me More and Say So as one of her 3 biggest hits.

[After Minutes]

Honestly I have a feeling that a really random song could get the #1 this year if Kendrick really isn't releasing. Watch it be City of Gods or Jack Harlow's single or something like that

[plankton5165]

I thought the “Bruno” in We Don’t Talk About Bruno was Bruno Mars.

[PositivityMaster48]

Week 14 for your viewing pleasure..

[bbfan97]

Mark my words Heat Waves will be #1 YE unfortunately

[plankton5165]

Feb 9, 2022 0:02:40 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

^ My guess for the Re-Entries for 2022 YE will be around 10-12 with the already locked (+ "Fancy Like" and "Good 4 U" locking soon) and any of these songs

- Kiss Me More
- You Right
- Essence
- Save Your Tears (long shot)
- Levitating (same as "Save Your Tears")
- Knife Talk

Kiss Me More is a pretty long shot.

[nathanalbright]

Do we think it has another two weeks or so? Because that's what it would likely take at this point.

[gikem]

If the cutoff for the 2022 YE ends up being 1500 points, KMM should pass it next week assuming it survives. However, with a few songs expected to debut in the top 50 this coming week (or return in the case of the Super Bowl songs), it could very well exit next week.

Still have no clue about Levitating or SYT. At this point, I think it’s more likely that they make it than for Kanye to drop Donda 2 as scheduled and knock them both out before passing the cutoff.

[joshtheking]

Levitating and SYT on the year end would feel very odd

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 14}1 Easy on Me (Adele) 5013
2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 4120
3 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 3539
4 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 3207
5 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 2981
6 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 2570
7 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 2569
8 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 2396
9 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 2372.4
10 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2303
11 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 2189
12 abcdefu (GAYLE) 2144.2
13 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124
14 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 1937
15 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 1934
16 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 1889
17 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 1879
18 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739
19 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 1711
20 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 1624
21 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1591
22 Oh My God (Adele) 1583.6
23 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1583
24 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 1580
25 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571
26 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 1551
27 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548
28 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 1541.4
29 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 1516.4
30 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485
31 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 1469
32 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1406.8
33 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1398.4
34 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2
35 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 1382
36 I Hate U (SZA) 1298
37 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8
38 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1241.2
39 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 1222.8
40 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 1212.8
41 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1207.8
42 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1202
43 Big Energy (Latto) 1200.8
44 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1177.6
45 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 1123.6
46 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 1112.8
47 Woman (Doja Cat) 1101.2
48 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 1098
49 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1094.4
50 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1054
51 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 1043.2
52 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 1033.2
53 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1023
54 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 1018.8
55 For Tonight (Giveon) 939.2
56 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 932.2
57 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 917.6
58 Have Mercy (Chloe) 917.6
59 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 908
60 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 903.8
61 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 855.8
62 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 853.6
63 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 817
64 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 816
65 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 805.2
66 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 782
67 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 776.4
68 Beggin' (Maneskin) 773
69 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 730
70 Scorpio (Moneybagg Yo) 726
71 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 722
72 Same Boat (Zac Brown Band) 721.2
73 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 717.2
74 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 714
75 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 696.8
76 Too Easy (Gunna/Future) 695.4
77 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 682.6
78 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 660
79 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season (Andy Williams) 660
80 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 658
81 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 652
82 Tequila Little Time (Jon Pardi) 640.8
83 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 628.8
84 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 622.8
85 Sacrifice (The Weeknd) 620
86 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 610
87 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 609.2
88 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 596
89 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 587
90 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 580
91 Pepas (Farruko) 567.2
92 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 563.2
93 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 551.8
94 Already Dead (Juice WRLD) 548.4
95 Bubbly (Young Thug/Drake/Travis Scott) 543.6
96 Do It To It (Acraze/Cherish) 536
97 Take My Breath (The Weeknd) 514.8
98 Fair Trade (Drake/Travis Scott) 497.6
99 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 492.4
100 Knowing You (Kenny Chesney) 482.8

[Groovy]

If Levitating does make the YE this year, it will be the first time since 1997-1998 where we'll consecutive YE chart toppers make an appearance on the following chart.

[rockgolf]

For the chart week of Feb 19, 2022, here's where I think the Top 100 of 2022 currently look.

And for spits and dribbles, here's how I project where this will be about 20 more weeks into the year.

Est. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Easy On Me	Adele	9149
2	We Don't Talk About Bruno	Carolina Gaitan, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast	7212
3	Stay	The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber	6574
4	Heat Waves	Glass Animals	6498
5	Shivers	Ed Sheeran	5209
6	Super Gremlin	Kodak Black	4585
7	abcdefu	GAYLE	4483
8	Industry Baby	Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow	4278
9	Ghost	Justin Bieber	4241
10	Do We Have A Problem?	Nicki Minaj X Lil Baby	4194
11	Need To Know	Doja Cat	4118
12	Bad Habits	Ed Sheeran	3960
13	Cold Heart (PNAU Remix)	Elton John & Dua Lipa	3932
14	Surface Pressure	Jessica Darrow	3506
15	Thats What I Want	Lil Nas X	3271
16	Smokin Out The Window	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	3214
17	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	2894
18	One Right Now	Post Malone & The Weeknd	2887
19	Levitating	Dua Lipa	2883
20	Good 4 U	Olivia Rodrigo	2873
21	Pushin P	Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug	2483
22	Fancy Like	Walker Hayes	2471
23	Oh My God	Adele	2462
24	Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah)	CKay	2452
25	Knife Talk	Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat	2443
26	Hrs And Hrs	Muni Long	2253
27	You Should Probably Leave	Chris Stapleton	2182
28	I Hate U	SZA	2162
29	You Right	Doja Cat & The Weeknd	2145
30	Better Days	NEIKED X Mae Muller X Polo G	2125
31	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2104
32	Buy Dirt	Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan	2058
33	The Family Madrigal	Stephanie Beatriz, Olga Merediz & Encanto Cast	2031
34	Big Energy	Latto	1955
35	Essence	Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems	1842
36	Meet Me At Our Spot	THE ANXIETY: WILLOW & Tyler Cole	1835
37	Kiss Me More	Doja Cat ft. SZA	1782
38	Sand In My Boots	Morgan Wallen	1706
39	Woman	Doja Cat	1671
40	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1656
41	Enemy	Imagine Dragons X JID	1550
42	Thinking 'Bout You	Dustin Lynch ft. Lauren Alaina Or MacKenzie Porter	1476
43	All Too Well (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1459
44	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1435
45	Way 2 Sexy	Drake ft. Future & Young Thug	1347
46	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1343
47	Happier Than Ever	Billie Eilish	1322
48	Who Want Smoke??	Nardo Wick ft. G Herbo, Lil Durk & 21 Savage	1246
49	Fingers Crossed	Lauren Spencer-Smith	1192
50	One Mississippi	Kane Brown	1185
51	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1184
52	If I Didn't Love You	Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood	1154
53	Whiskey And Rain	Michael Ray	1114
54	Chosen	Blxst & Tyga ft. Ty Dolla $ign	1100
55	Girls Want Girls	Drake ft. Lil Baby	1075
56	What Else Can I Do?	Diane Guerrero & Stephanie Beatriz	1073
57	Last Christmas	Wham!	1071
58	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	951
59	Broadway Girls	Lil Durk ft. Morgan Wallen	911
60	Freedom Was A Highway	Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley	902
61	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	896
62	'Til You Can't	Cody Johnson	891
63	Have Mercy	Chloe	869
64	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	848
65	My Universe	Coldplay x BTS	843
66	Beggin'	Maneskin	828
67	Message In A Bottle (Taylor's Version) (From The Vault)	Taylor Swift	787
68	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	777
69	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	767
70	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	765
71	For Tonight	Giveon	763
72	By Your Side	Rod Wave	725
72	Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season	Andy Williams	725
74	Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer	Gene Autry	714
75	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	709
76	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	704
77	Heart On Fire	Eric Church	682
78	Half Of My Hometown	Kelsea Ballerini ft. Kenny Chesney	669
79	No Love	Summer Walker & SZA	666
80	To Be Loved By You	Parker McCollum	662
81	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	654
82	Sacrifice	The Weeknd	653
83	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Michael Buble	645
84	Run Rudolph Run	Chuck Berry	643
85	Dos Oruguitas	Sebastian Yatra	643
86	Same Boat	Zac Brown Band	634
87	(There's No Place Like) Home For The Holidays	Perry Como	632
88	Pepas	Farruko	599
89	Too Easy	Gunna & Future	586
90	Cold As You	Luke Combs	578
91	Scorpio	Moneybagg Yo	566
92	Family Ties	Baby Keem & Kendrick Lamar	513
93	Doin' This	Luke Combs	510
94	Already Dead	Juice WRLD	495
95	Tequila Little Time	Jon Pardi	456
96	Waiting On A Miracle	Stephanie Beatriz	451
97	Beers On Me	Dierks Bentley, Breland & HARDY	440
98	Do It To It	Acraze ft. Cherish	438
99	Leave The Door Open	Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)	436
99	Take My Breath	The Weeknd	436

[/div]

I expect Nicki Minaj to end up well short of where it currently resides, since I expect a far greater decay for her than 5% per week. WDTA Bruno will probably be a lot lower too unless radio picks up on it.

[Groovy]

[joshtheking]

Hoping All Too Well can hold on for one more week!

[inverse]

Nov 23, 2021 16:26:13 GMT -5 inverse said:

If All Too Well actually somehow makes the year end I'll do the Lil Pump PFP again (still can't believe that happened)

oh boy we might be in trouble here. Thought this was a safe bet for sure!

Whens the last time a song made a year end list this far after its initial release? Lizzo's songs weren't nearly as far back & they were also mostly marketed as current releases, not rereleases, so I think it's like December 1963 (Oh What A Night) in 1994??