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Post by Gonza'90 on Feb 17, 2022 17:15:39 GMT -5
All I Want From Christmas Is You?
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Feb 17, 2022 18:33:17 GMT -5
If both Levitating and Save Your Tears make it, it'll continue the trend of the YE #1 and #2's making it on consecutive YE charts.
2019: No. 62 - Circles
2020: No. 1 - Blinding Lights No. 2 - Circles
2021: No. 1 - Levitating No. 2 - Save Your Tears No. 3 - Blinding Lights
2022: ??? - Levitating ??? - Save Your Tears
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Feb 20, 2022 6:54:06 GMT -5
^ if "Levitating" and "Save Your Tears" wants to be Re-Entries for the 2022 YE, they need like 3-6 weeks around the #17-#25 range to gather enough points to pass the cut-off (if it happens, my guess is "Levitating" escapes Bottom 25, but "Save Your Tears" is within Bottom 20)
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 20, 2022 15:53:36 GMT -5
It seems pretty possible to happen if there aren't a lot of high debuts the next few weeks.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 20, 2022 18:36:19 GMT -5
I think an interesting thing to have would be a "Weeks Away" counter assuming a song repeats its current point total. For some selected actively charting songs we got
We Don't Talk About Bruno - 1 All Too Well - 1 Essence - 1 Better Days - 2 You Right - 2 Knife Talk - 2 Kiss Me More - 2 Love Nwantiti - 2 Buy Dirt - 2 Oh My God - 2 Meet Me At Our Spot - 3 You Should Probably Leave - 3 Save Your Tears - 3 Levitating - 3 I Hate U - 4 Surface Pressure - 4 Sand In My Boots - 5 Big Energy - 5 Pushin P - 5
of these I think Kiss Me More & You Should Probably Leave are least likely to hit their totals although if KMM can just get one it's at least possible
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puwrpler04
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Post by puwrpler04 on Feb 20, 2022 21:18:40 GMT -5
I think an interesting thing to have would be a "Weeks Away" counter assuming a song repeats its current point total. For some selected actively charting songs we got We Don't Talk About Bruno - 1 All Too Well - 1 Essence - 1 Better Days - 2 You Right - 2 Knife Talk - 2 Kiss Me More - 2 Love Nwantiti - 2 Buy Dirt - 2 Oh My God - 2 Meet Me At Our Spot - 3 You Should Probably Leave - 3 Save Your Tears - 3 Levitating - 3 I Hate U - 4 Surface Pressure - 4 Sand In My Boots - 5 Big Energy - 5 Pushin P - 5 of these I think Kiss Me More & You Should Probably Leave are least likely to hit their totals although if KMM can just get one it's at least possible I think Kiss Me More,You Right,Knife Talk,But Dirt,You Should Probably Leave,Levitating,Save Your Tears,And Meet Me At Our Spot are all dependent on Kanyeโs album bomb and if it affects the chart,If it dosent and actually releases it on his Stem player there all safe but if he drops it on streaming I see most of these missing
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Feb 20, 2022 21:39:48 GMT -5
^Actually, Donda 2 will only be available to listen on the Stem player, unless it is actually available to stream on Tidal. Assuming Ye actually releases, that is ...
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 20, 2022 21:43:31 GMT -5
inverse I'm not sure where you're placing your expected points cutoff, but I'm keeping mine at 150,000 until I decide otherwise. Thus, here's how I'd have my "weeks away" for the songs you listed, based on ChartEssentials' predictions for this week: All Too Well - 0 (assuming it exits this week, it will most likely be bottom 5 on the YE, though it could be higher or miss entirely depending on how the cutoff fluctuates) We Don't Talk About Bruno - 0 Essence - 1 (might slip out next week) Better Days - 1 You Right - 1 Knife Talk - 1 Kiss Me More - 1 (might slip out next week) Love Nwantiti - 1 Buy Dirt - 2 Oh My God - 2 Meet Me At Our Spot - 2 Save Your Tears - 2 Thinking 'Bout You - 3 (but will be gone next week, so it doesn't matter) You Should Probably Leave - 3 (probably will fall short if radio losses continue) Levitating - 3 Surface Pressure - 3 (might take slightly longer if streaming losses continue) I Hate U - 4 Pushin P - 5 Sand In My Boots - 5 Big Energy - 5 As for the possibility of a Kanye album bomb, I'm not trusting a thing he says he'll do until he actually does it. That's all I'll say.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 21, 2022 1:22:49 GMT -5
inverse I'm not sure where you're placing your expected points cutoff, but I'm keeping mine at 150,000 until I decide otherwise. Thus, here's how I'd have my "weeks away" for the songs you listed, based on ChartEssentials' predictions for this week: All Too Well - 0 (assuming it exits this week, it will most likely be bottom 5 on the YE, though it could be higher or miss entirely depending on how the cutoff fluctuates) We Don't Talk About Bruno - 0 Essence - 1 (might slip out next week) Better Days - 1 You Right - 1 Knife Talk - 1 Kiss Me More - 1 (might slip out next week) Love Nwantiti - 1 Buy Dirt - 2 Oh My God - 2 Meet Me At Our Spot - 2 Save Your Tears - 2 Thinking 'Bout You - 3 (but will be gone next week, so it doesn't matter) You Should Probably Leave - 3 (probably will fall short if radio losses continue) Levitating - 3 Surface Pressure - 3 (might take slightly longer if streaming losses continue) I Hate U - 4 Pushin P - 5 Sand In My Boots - 5 Big Energy - 5 As for the possibility of a Kanye album bomb, I'm not trusting a thing he says he'll do until he actually does it. That's all I'll say. Todo De Ti's point total aka 157,281. Obviously the cutoff is never the same year to year but considering its less than 1/3 of the way through there isn't really a more accurate guess yet I'm also going off Austin because he was ridiculously accurate last year, although the #1 predictor has never been the same twice in a row so there's pressure this year!
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Post by After Minutes on Feb 21, 2022 2:18:28 GMT -5
Yeah this Kanye situation is bizarre. He could very well release the album on the stem player tomorrow and drop it on streaming this Friday, who really knows at this point
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pancakes
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Post by pancakes on Feb 21, 2022 19:51:50 GMT -5
EOM, Stay, and Heat Waves are all probably ending up in Top 10 this year. With how stale the charts look, I wonโt be surprised if they are the top 3 in that order. One month later, and Iโm almost certain this will be the top 3.
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Feb 21, 2022 19:57:28 GMT -5
Yeah, the year-end #1 seemed to be a 3 way battle between Easy On Me, Stay, and Heat Waves. Won't be surprised if Heat Waves won out in the end.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 21, 2022 23:26:39 GMT -5
Stay shouldn't be anywhere near in contention for year end #1. It has yet to outchart EOM once this year & it'll probably tap out at 35 weeks. Best case scenario is probably like #6
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 22, 2022 6:52:58 GMT -5
We can still consider the possibility of something not released/yet to chart BLOWING UP and taking the year end #1, similar to Old Town Road. But for now my bet is on Heat Waves tbh
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Feb 22, 2022 7:33:22 GMT -5
Stay shouldn't be anywhere near in contention for year end #1. It has yet to outchart EOM once this year & it'll probably tap out at 35 weeks. Best case scenario is probably like #6 The only way Stay will tap out at 35 weeks is if radio bans it. Unless something truly unforeseen like that happens, Stay is on its way to breaking the Circles first 38 weeks in the Top 10 record, and will probably chart for 60+ weeks.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Feb 22, 2022 10:15:32 GMT -5
Stay will probably be this year's Mood or Circles. Big hit from the last year that sticks around for awhile this year, ranks highly on the YE chart, but is never really in contention to be the YE1. I have a feeling something is gonna blow up, but if not, my money is on We Don't Talk About Bruno, which hasn't even gotten radio traction yet.
Who knows though, it could be a song that's charting right now but is still climbing. None of us saw Blinding Lights or Levitating being the YE1 at this time the past two years. Neither were immediate smashes; if anything they looked like underperformances initially. Some sleeper candidates with slow upward momentum are abcdefu, That's What I Want, Ghost and Big Energy
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 22, 2022 16:41:20 GMT -5
Not seeing WDTAB finishing top 10, I'm not making any bets about it but still the Encanto songs are already on the downswing & I think once it's not ruling streaming the radio is gonna jump off the bandwagon ASAP.
Ngl Heat Waves is looking possible, with EOM crashing down radio it might simply stay in the top 10 for 30 weeks & get it by default
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Post by After Minutes on Feb 23, 2022 1:26:26 GMT -5
I'd say:
Heat Waves - top 3 Stay - top 10 Easy On Me - top 10 Bruno - top 20 ABCDEFU - top 20
Too easy to tell but could be huge:
That's What I Want Ghost Nail Tech
I'll still say that if Lil Baby releases soon enough he could grab the #1
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pancakes
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Post by pancakes on Feb 23, 2022 2:33:00 GMT -5
I think Thatโs What I Want will have incredible longevity.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 23, 2022 6:12:26 GMT -5
Since it survived this week, All Too Well should be safe for year end then right?
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 23, 2022 8:33:02 GMT -5
^ Yes, All Too Well should be safe as itโs just barely above RATCT on my YE predictions.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 23, 2022 8:33:37 GMT -5
Speaking of which.. hereโs Week 15!
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Feb 23, 2022 9:06:21 GMT -5
PositivityMaster48 so "All Too Well" is now locked for the YE, but based on the Tweet it is yet to pass the projected cutoff to guarantee the lock (those songs that were in yellow)
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 23, 2022 12:42:20 GMT -5
Speaking of which.. hereโs Week 15! Nice work
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Feb 23, 2022 14:47:48 GMT -5
If Heat Waves is actually the year end #1 I will lose all of my marbles. All my marbles will be gone we need new hits asap
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Post by reputainbow on Feb 23, 2022 16:24:24 GMT -5
{Week 14}1 Easy on Me (Adele) 5324 2 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 4395 3 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 3868 4 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 3446 5 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 3135 6 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 2739 7 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 2736 8 Super Gremlin (Kodak Black) 2629.4 9 We Don't Talk About Bruno (Carolina Gaitan/Mauro Castillo/Adassa/Rhenzy Feliz/Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz/Encanto Cast) 2589 10 Cold Heart (Elton John/Dua Lipa) 2570 11 abcdefu (GAYLE) 2437.2 12 Smokin Out the Window (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 2415 13 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2124 14 Ghost (Justin Bieber) 2110 15 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 2056 16 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 2038 17 One Right Now (Post Malone/The Weeknd) 2017 18 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 1914 19 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1739 20 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 1719 21 Oh My God (Adele) 1707.6 22 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 1677 23 Better Days (Neiked/Mae Muller/Polo G) 1671.4 24 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 1671 25 Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) (Ckay/Joeboy/Kuami Eugene) 1651.4 26 All Too Well (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 1644.2 27 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 1620.4 28 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd) 1619 29 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1571 30 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 1548 31 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 1540 32 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1504.8 33 Meet Me At Our Spot (The Anxiety/Willow/Tyler Cole) 1497.4 34 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1485 35 I Hate U (SZA) 1424 36 Surface Pressure (Jessica Darrow) 1390.8 37 Thinking 'Bout You (Dustin Lynch/Lauren Alaina/Mackenzie Porter) 1385.2 38 Big Energy (Latto) 1332.8 39 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 1328.8 40 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1284.8 41 Pushin P (Gunna/Future/Young Thug) 1283 42 Who Want Smoke?? (Nardo Wick/G Herbo/Lil Durk/21 Savage) 1282.6 43 One Mississippi (Kane Brown) 1264.4 44 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1241.2 45 Woman (Doja Cat) 1231.2 46 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1202 47 Chosen (Blxst/Tyga/Ty Dolla $ign) 1194.8 48 Whiskey and Rain (Michael Ray) 1183.2 49 Til You Can't (Cody Johnson) 1149.2 50 Enemy (Imagine Dragons/JID) 1146.8 51 Freedom Was a Highway (Jimmie Allen/Brad Paisley) 1120.4 52 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1094.4 53 Hrs and Hrs (Muni Long) 1063.6 54 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1054 55 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1023 56 For Tonight (Giveon) 1009.2 57 Broadway Girls (Lil Durk/Morgan Wallen) 933.8 58 Message In a Bottle (Taylor Swift) 932.2 59 Have Mercy (Chloe) 917.6 60 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 908 61 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 903.8 62 Heart on Fire (Eric Church) 897.2 63 By Your Side (Rod Wave) 865.6 64 Half of My Hometown (Kelsea Ballerini/Kenny Chesney) 861.6 65 No Love (Summer Walker/SZA) 853.6 66 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 817 67 The Family Madrigal (Stephanie Beatriz/Olga Merediz/Encanto Cast) 816.6 68 To Be Loved by You (Parker McCollum) 806.4 69 Fingers Crossed (Lauren Spencer-Smith) 789.8 70 Scorpio (Moneybagg Yo) 787.2 71 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 782 72 Beggin' (Maneskin) 773 73 Too Easy (Gunna/Future) 745.4 74 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 730 75 What Else Can I Do? (Diane Guerrero/Stephanie Beatriz) 728.8 76 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 722 77 Same Boat (Zac Brown Band) 721.2 78 Christmas (Baby Please Come Home) (Darlene Love) 714 79 Sacrifice (The Weeknd) 707.6 80 Doin' This (Luke Combs) 703.2 81 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 660 82 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season (Andy Williams) 660 83 White Christmas (Bing Crosby) 658 84 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 652 85 Dos Oruguitas (Sebastian Yatra) 643.8 86 Tequila Little Time (Jon Pardi) 640.8 87 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Perry Como and the Fontane Sisters/Mitchell Ayres and His Orchestra) 610 88 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 609.2 89 Do It To It (Acraze/Cherish) 602 90 Run Rudolph Run (Chuck Berry) 596 91 It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas (Michael Buble) 587 92 (There's No Place Like) Home for the Holidays (Perry Como) 580 93 Beers on Me (Dierks Bentley/Breland/HARDY) 576 94 Pepas (Farruko) 567.2 95 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 563.2 96 Waiting on a Miracle (Stephanie Beatriz) 560.8 97 23 (Sam Hunt) 560 98 Already Dead (Juice WRLD) 548.4 99 Bubbly (Young Thug/Drake/Travis Scott) 543.6 100 Pressure (Ari Lennox) 528
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 23, 2022 16:46:11 GMT -5
๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ Yes All Too Well should technically be locked now. If it drops out next week, it should finish around the 90s.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 23, 2022 16:51:20 GMT -5
Speaking of which.. hereโs Week 15! Nice work Thank you so much!
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 23, 2022 18:57:21 GMT -5
You're very welcome.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 24, 2022 7:19:44 GMT -5
I predict Numb Little Bug will have a similar chart run to Supalonely
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