Billboard Hot 100: 12/04/2021

[forg]

People had higher expectations which can't be preventable given how massive Adele's past albums are but at least now that we have seen her first full Spotify performance we can have more realistic expectations from hereon. Six years between 25 and 30 is a big change in how music is consumed and what type of audience consumes it more now.

[kingvavis]

By 2030, what do you think the average AI for a radio number one will be?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 20, 2021 15:03:14 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 20, 2021 13:55:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I don't really buy for a second that the 6 minute songs were what caused the album to do less numbers than expected. Especially since most of those songs were deepcuts towards the latter half of the album, which in general tend to be less streamed, I think the fact a good chunk of people were streaming a 10 minute song days after release is enough to sway the idea people aren't willing to stream long songs.

Nor do I buy the idea that this album wasn't "designed for streaming" (whatever that means). Adele has always been a pop singer-songwriter and has always been commercially successful since her debut breakthrough with 18. This isn't some avant-garde experimental music with various instrumental changes or multiple 12+ minute songs, it's only just a little longer than her previous albums and again, it's not like singer-songwriters haven't shown the capacity for big streaming numbers (see lore, folk)

How bout we just go with Occam's Razor: people just weren't as interested or as excited for a full Adele album as we were expecting.

Shouldn't we wait to see the physical sales before making a true judgement? It could still be the biggest debut of the year, and even the biggest debut since Adele's last album. What then?

I was clearly not talking about streaming numbers and didn't include physical sales. We already have have an idea about the sales based on pre-orders so it will still end up as the biggest debut of the year. That doesn't negate the streaming stats though.

[JukeboxJacob]

Nov 20, 2021 20:00:00 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

By 2030, what do you think the average AI for a radio number one will be?

I feel like FM radio is gonna be obsolete by then. Everyone's gonna be riding around in automated cars streaming their music. MAYBE listening to satellite radio

[jenglisbe]

Nov 20, 2021 21:39:02 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Nov 20, 2021 15:03:14 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Shouldn't we wait to see the physical sales before making a true judgement? It could still be the biggest debut of the year, and even the biggest debut since Adele's last album. What then?

I was clearly not talking about streaming numbers and didn't include physical sales. We already have have an idea about the sales based on pre-orders so it will still end up as the biggest debut of the year. That doesn't negate the streaming stats though.

How did you have a specific expectation of streaming numbers when she hasn't released an album to streaming on the day of release in the streaming era?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 20, 2021 21:44:34 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 20, 2021 21:39:02 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I was clearly not talking about streaming numbers and didn't include physical sales. We already have have an idea about the sales based on pre-orders so it will still end up as the biggest debut of the year. That doesn't negate the streaming stats though.

How did you have a specific expectation of streaming numbers when she hasn't released an album to streaming on the day of release in the streaming era?

I was more going based off of other people's expectations lmao. I didn't give my predictions until how much she'd do until after I saw the first day streaming numbers,

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Knife Talk is up to #12 at Apple Music and broke 30's short-lived monopoly over the top 12 there.

[firefox]

[gikem]

IMO, this is a huge win. The days of stream-trolling may not be totally over (in fact, it’s pretty much the norm in mainstream hip-hop these days), but at the very least Spotify did something right for once and made a change in favor of the artistic integrity of albums.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I'd actually be in very real favor of removing the shuffle option for all albums, not just for Adele. I know I can't be the only one who's accidentally played albums out of order because they had a playlist on shuffle and didn't change the settings to before switching to albums. I'm still someone who thinks tracklisting matters even for simple pop releases and don't like to listen to albums out of order.

[Mayman]

Nov 20, 2021 23:40:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'd actually be in very real favor of removing the shuffle option for all albums, not just for Adele. I know I can't be the only one who's accidentally played albums out of order because they had a playlist on shuffle and didn't change the settings to before switching to albums. I'm still someone who thinks tracklisting matters even for simple pop releases and don't like to listen to albums out of order.

They did remove the shuffle option for every album I'm pretty sure, at least it is removed for me as of now.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 20, 2021 23:41:36 GMT -5 Mayman said:

Nov 20, 2021 23:40:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'd actually be in very real favor of removing the shuffle option for all albums, not just for Adele. I know I can't be the only one who's accidentally played albums out of order because they had a playlist on shuffle and didn't change the settings to before switching to albums. I'm still someone who thinks tracklisting matters even for simple pop releases and don't like to listen to albums out of order.

They did remove the shuffle option for every album I'm pretty sure, at least it is removed for me as of now.

I still have it which is why I stopped having playlists on shuffle. If there's a way to turn off shuffle for albums, someone let me know

[85la]

Wait, so is it just that the shuffle feature is no longer the default option, or did they get rid of the shuffle feature entirely, not just for Adele but for all albums and playlists? Literally the stupidest move they could make, the shuffle feature was one of my favorite features. F*** artistic integrity, this just gives much less control to the consumer and have the labels shove a calculated effect down our throats. We can already listen to the songs out of order by manually selecting them anyway, so there's no real need to remove it, but ultimately we're listening to the same songs, the order doesn't matter as much, it's just a fun little way for the consumer to mix things up a bit and offer more variety. Ugghh so dumb.

[enwhy]

Nov 21, 2021 0:14:01 GMT -5 85la said:

Wait, so is it just that the shuffle feature is no longer the default option, or did they get rid of the shuffle feature entirely, not just for Adele but for all albums and playlists? Literally the stupidest move they could make, the shuffle feature was one of my favorite features. F*** artistic integrity, this just gives much less control to the consumer and have the labels shove a calculated effect down our throats. We can already listen to the songs out of order by manually selecting them anyway, so there's no real need to remove it, but ultimately we're listening to the same songs, the order doesn't matter as much, it's just a fun little way for the consumer to mix things up a bit and offer more variety. Ugghh so dumb.

I believe all that's different is the default option. When you go to play an album, it will play in order by default.


Non-premium users also won't be able to shuffle albums at all, so they have to listen in order.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 21, 2021 0:14:01 GMT -5 85la said:

Wait, so is it just that the shuffle feature is no longer the default option, or did they get rid of the shuffle feature entirely, not just for Adele but for all albums and playlists? Literally the stupidest move they could make, the shuffle feature was one of my favorite features. F*** artistic integrity, this just gives much less control to the consumer and have the labels shove a calculated effect down our throats. We can already listen to the songs out of order by manually selecting them anyway, so there's no real need to remove it, but ultimately we're listening to the same songs, the order doesn't matter as much, it's just a fun little way for the consumer to mix things up a bit and offer more variety. Ugghh so dumb.

I mean u could just que or re-arrange songs in the order you want or just make a playlist if you really wanted total control over an album you didn't make. Also like...maybe songs are listed that way for a reason? Like Jesus, give some respect to the artist, It's not always about you lmao.

[Mayman]

You can still shuffle songs, just go to the music player and shuffle from there.

[Deleted]

Nov 20, 2021 20:00:00 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

By 2030, what do you think the average AI for a radio number one will be?

It depends on how radio and the music industry play their cards in the next decade. If it remains available but doesn't change, I'd assume it would be below 75 but above 50 on Kworb. However, I also see radio going the way of the jukebox (i.e. still exists, but completely irrelevant) by then.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Speaking on Easy On Me, what other hit songs have had country remixes? The only ones that I can think of are Never Be the Same with Kane Brown, (God Must Have Spent) A Little More Time on You with Alabama and....Yummy with FGL (ugh)

[kimberly]

Nov 21, 2021 3:18:16 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Speaking on Easy On Me, what other hit songs have had country remixes? The only ones that I can think of are Never Be the Same with Kane Brown, (God Must Have Spent) A Little More Time on You with Alabama and....Yummy with FGL (ugh)

well it's a whole conversation whether "Old Town Road" is country or not (in my opinion it is), but that's the one remarkable song that I can recall that received a remix featuring a country singer (which quickly replaced the original on the charts).

[firefox]

Decent drop i think

[Darkest Hour]

Nov 21, 2021 3:18:16 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Speaking on Easy On Me, what other hit songs have had country remixes? The only ones that I can think of are Never Be the Same with Kane Brown, (God Must Have Spent) A Little More Time on You with Alabama and....Yummy with FGL (ugh)

Born This Way too.

[firefox]

Wow I didn't expect this thread to be slower when talking about Adele when Adele actually released an album. I remember we are talking about her alot on some threads on the days she's MIA. 😂

[Groovy]

My question is, what is Adele's standard for streaming and she has ever lived up to these standards?

[tommy1860]

Nov 21, 2021 9:00:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

My question is, what is Adele's standard for streaming and she has ever lived up to these standards?

This is her first album that was released on the streaming era. Spotify was around for 25, but nowhere near as big as it is now (plus she didn’t put the album on streaming services then). I think that’s what is making it so hard to predict, we have no frame of reference.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 11/19/21

Adele - 30
1(=) Easy On Me 2,314,067 (-548,366)
2(=) Oh My God 1,799,651 (-516,263)
4(+2) Can I Get It 1,365,963 (-505,641)
5(+2) I Drink Wine 1,347,086 (-427,780)
6(-2) My Little Love 1,337,060 (-676,236)
7(-4) Stranger By Nature 1,231,386 (-870,442)
8(=) Cry Your Heart Out 1,172,129 (-602,046)
9(=) To Be Loved 1,169,985 (-353,373)
13(-2) Woman Like Me 1,027,372 (-395,290)
14(-4) All Night Parking 1,026,090 (-406,576)
15(-3) Hold On 1,004,562 (-364,242)
17(-4) Love is a Game 892,454 (-281,927)
Total Streams: 15,687,805

Taylor Swift - Red (Taylor's Version)
3(+2) All Too Well (10 Minute Version) 1,610,465 (-284,258)
28(-4) Red 587,121 (-102,828)
30(-7) I Bet You Think About Me 585,007 (-110,407)
34(-12) Nothing New 567,896 (-138,257)
36(-10) All Too Well 550,692 (-122,920)
58(-21) State of Grace 417,309 (-89,025)
61(-19) I Knew You Were Trouble 413,179 (-73,225)
68(-27) The Very First Night 390,056 (-99,123)
71(-24) Message in a Bottle 377,703 (-85,941)
76(-13) 22 361,015 (-63,863)
79(-21) Treacherous 351,967 (-80,124)
81(-24) Better Man 346,741 (-88,963)
88(-29) Run 326,862 (-101,207)
89(-20) We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together 325,401 (-66,726)
Total Streams: 10,583,701

Total Streams for All Too Well (Taylor's Version): 2,161,157

Others:
10(+5) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 1,163,001 (+60,566)
11(+3) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Smokin Out The Window 1,111,324 (-56,237)
12(+4) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,052,305 (+59,577)
16(+1) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 925,838 (+25,402)
18(=) Drake - Knife Talk 820,549 (-2,774)
19(+1) NEIKED - Better Days 737,365 (+21,126)
20(+1) Drake - Way 2 Sexy 727,873 (+21,235)
21(+8) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 698,987 (+38,505)
22(-3) Juice WRLD - Already Dead 697,114 (-75,309)
23(+2) Doja Cat - Need to Know 680,698 (+4,268)
24(+7) Elton John, Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 674,791 (+54,831)
25(+2) Post Malone - One Right Now 662,413 (-9,143)
26(+7) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 605,812 (+18,019)
27(+1) Baby Keem - family ties 605,231 (-60,459)
31(-1) Polo G - Bad Man (Smooth Criminal) 583,778 (-55,429)
32(+14) Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You 580,199 (+105,744)
33(+1) THE ANXIETY, WILLOW, Tyler Cole - Meet Me At Our Spot 577,213 (-1,873)
35(+1) Doja Cat - Woman 565,226 (+26,244)
37(-5) Taylor Swift - Enchanted 549,808 (-68,865)
38(+2) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Leave the Door Open 503,945 (+4,927)
39(+12) Eslabon Armado, DannyLux - Jugaste y Sufrí 493,933 (+39,468)
41(+8) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 475,921 (+15,378)
42(+1) Amaarae - SAD GIRLZ LUV MONEY Remix 471,817 (-8,373)
43(-5) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 470,555 (-34,045)
44(=) Playboi Carti - Sky 469,620 (-8,387)
45(+41) Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 469,611 (+119,059)
46(-7) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 467,955 (-33,128)
49(+25) Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 461,987 (+81,475)
50(+22) CKay - love nwantiti (ah ah ah) 460,032 (+75,335)
51(+3) Nardo Wick - Who Want Smoke?? 456,436 (+10,365)
52(-7) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 442,034 (-34,658)
53(-5) Kanye West - Praise God 442,031 (-19,040)
54(+12) GAYLE - abcdefu 441,402 (+19,064)
59(-3) Drake - Fair Trade 414,261 (-25,845)
62(+2) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 409,762 (-14,462)
63(-8) Travis Scott - ESCAPE PLAN 409,657 (-33,000)
64(+3) Imagine Dragons - Enemy 409,518 (-7,025)
65(+8) Justin Bieber - Ghost 407,351 (+23,894)
66(+11) Måneskin - Beggin' 403,581 (+27,843)
67(+11) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 399,872 (+28,626)
70(+26) BoyWithUke - Toxic 385,509 (+55,584)
72(-4) The Walters - I Love You So 375,335 (-40,112)
73(+37) Michael Bublé - It's Beginning to Look a Lot like Christmas 372,238 (+59,613)
74(+48) Andy Williams - It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 366,259 (+68,681)
78(+22) LISA - MONEY 352,545 (+30,211)
80(+4) The Rare Occasions - Notion 347,188 (-5,900)
82(+5) Swedish House Mafia - Moth To A Flame 342,237 (-5,960)
83(+8) Summer Walker - No Love 335,473 (-4,853)
85(+22) Oliver Tree - Life Goes On 329,785 (+13,666)
87(+8) NLE Choppa - Jumpin 326,876 (-5,031)
90(+50) Wham! - Last Christmas 325,371 (+47,068)
92(=) ROSALÍA - LA FAMA 322,385 (-17,007)
95(re-entry) Frank Sinatra - Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas 316,507
96(+31) ACRAZE, Cherish - Do It to It 315,883 (+20,266)
97(re-entry) Bing Crosby, Ken Darby Singers, John Scott Trotter & His Orchestra - White Christmas 311,844
99(+3) Drake - Girls Want Girls 306,622 (-14,681)
100(+1) Surf Curse - Freaks 304,718 (-16,678)

101(+15) Coldplay, BTS - My Universe 303,392 (-2,303)
102(+3) Benson Boone - GHOST TOWN 303,282 (-14,397)
105(+10) Gunna, Future - Too Easy 297,894 (-8,955)
107(+1) Young Thug - Bubbly 295,454 (-20,099)
109(+36) Nat King Cole - The Christmas Song 294,747 (+20,756)
113(-32) Young Dolph - 1 Scale 290,043 (-69,222)
115(+77) Ariana Grande - Santa Tell Me 289,052 (+46,811)
119(+14) Jordan Davis, Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt 284,987 (-2,843)
120(-8) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Skate 282,247 (-29,084)
127(-67) Kanye West - Life Of The Party 280,016 (-147,852)
129(+13) Lil Tecca - LOT OF ME 278,771 (+2,378)
131(-5) Tate McRae - feel like shit 274,150 (-21,883)
133(-3) $uicideboy$ - ...And to Those I Love, Thanks for Sticking Around 272,728 (-18,325)
134(+52) NLE Choppa - I.Y.B. 272,153 (+26,127)
139(-3) Ivan Cornejo - Está Dañada 266,778 (-18,461)
141(+16) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever Edit 262,596 (-1,971)
148(+19) Siouxxie - masquerade 258,629 (+4,156)
150(re-entry) José Feliciano - Feliz Navidad 254,320
152(-5) Joy Again - Looking Out for You 252,173 (-18,567)
159(-11) DaBaby - ROOF 249,405 (-20,530)
161(-6) Key Glock - Ambition For Cash 247,536 (-18,791)
163(-20) Los Del Limit - Siendo Sincero 247,270 (-28,219)
167(re-entry) Justin Bieber - Mistletoe 245,385
168(debut) Emmy Meli - I AM WOMAN 244,633
170(-12) Beach House - Space Song 241,338 (-23,207)
171(re-entry) Kelly Clarkson - Underneath the Tree 240,740
175(re-entry) Frank Sinatra - Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! 238,025
186(re-entry) Morgan Wallen - Sand In My Boots 229,959

Total Streams for Happier Than Ever: 704,630

Biggest Gains (50K+): It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year, It's Beginning to Look a Lot like Christmas, Toxic, love nwantiti (ah ah ah), Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree, Jingle Bell Rock, All I Want For Christmas Is You, Cold Heart (PNAU Remix), STAY, INDUSTRY BABY

Top 10 Without Adele:
1. All Too Well (10 Minute Version)
2. INDUSTRY BABY
3. Smokin Out The Window
4. STAY
5. Heat Waves
6. Knife Talk
7. Already Dead
8. Better Days
9. Way 2 Sexy
10. Shivers

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 21, 2021 9:18:27 GMT -5 tommy1860 said:

Nov 21, 2021 9:00:16 GMT -5 Groovy said:

My question is, what is Adele's standard for streaming and she has ever lived up to these standards?

This is her first album that was released on the streaming era. Spotify was around for 25, but nowhere near as big as it is now (plus she didn’t put the album on streaming services then). I think that’s what is making it so hard to predict, we have no frame of reference.

25 wasn't released on streaming services when it was first released, that's why it didn't make an impact. There were album bombs before 25, notably for Purpose and What A Time to Be Alive, so if she had put 25 on streaming services, she could've had an album bomb.

[jenglisbe]

"AIWFCIY" is top 30 on iTunes. I know that likely only represents like 1,000 downloads or something, but it's still wild to me there are people who apparently like Christmas music enough to listen to it before Thanksgiving, yet are only just now downloading "AIWFCIY." Lol.

[gikem]

Nov 21, 2021 9:57:33 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Nov 21, 2021 9:18:27 GMT -5 tommy1860 said:

This is her first album that was released on the streaming era. Spotify was around for 25, but nowhere near as big as it is now (plus she didn’t put the album on streaming services then). I think that’s what is making it so hard to predict, we have no frame of reference.

25 wasn't released on streaming services when it was first released, that's why it didn't make an impact. There were album bombs before 25, notably for Purpose and What A Time to Be Alive, so if she had put 25 on streaming services, she could've had an album bomb.

I keep forgetting that 25 was released around a time of weird flux where artists like Taylor and Adele refused to put their albums on streaming services, platforms like Spotify, Apple Music and Tidal were competing for attention with some artists like Kanye and Drake putting their albums exclusively on their preferred platforms before anywhere else, and Billboard was late to adding a lot of streaming services to their Hot 100 calculations.

[Groovy]

Remember when Tidal was a big thing?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2021 » / « 11 » / « 21 »

1(=) Adele - Easy On Me 107.32(+1.55) +
2(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 103.80(-0.47)
3(=) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 78.82(-0.75)
4(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 74.57(-1.13)
5(=) Måneskin - Beggin 66.03(-0.91)
6(=) Doja Cat - Need To Know 65.81(+0.79)
7(=) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 62.82(-0.52)
8(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 58.75(-1.05)
9(=) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 56.23(+0.27) +

10(=) Doja Cat - You Right f/The Weeknd 54.74(-0.74)

16(+1) Zac Brown Band - Same Boat 43.92(+0.80)

21(+1) Drake - Girls Want Girls f/Lil Baby 38.55(+0.74)

30(+3) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 31.41(+1.01)

38(+1) NEIKED, Mae Muller & Polo G - Better Days 26.24(+0.96)

56(=) Ckay - Love Nwantiti (Ah Ah Ah) 20.91(+0.79)

57(+3) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Smokin Out The Window 20.59(+1.84)

-(-) Moneybagg Yo - Scorpio 8.54(+0.77)

-(-) Drake - Knife Talk f/21 Savage... 3.55(+1.72)