2021 Observations/2022 Predictions

[onebuffalo]

Yes, it is that time year again to look back and look ahead (all at the same time, no less). The two questions are:

1. What have you noticed over the past twelve months?

2. What would you like to see over the next twelve months?

[raylatch98]

So I am gonna do predictions for next year and go by record label and artists, I'll start with UMG and by the end of the year I should have all the predictions (note if I have nothing to say about an artist I don't think they are releasing anything to radio or relevant). I will say I do miss when this thread was just solely predictions, but it is what it is. 

Capitol Nashville
1. Carrie Underwood releases a new lead single in May and it makes it to the Top 5 on both charts but only scores a Mediabase only #1, followup single is Top 20 by years end. Her latest album is sonically more in line with Storyteller instead of Cry Pretty and the album is one of the best selling albums of the year.
2. Caylee Hammack releases a new single this spring but fails to chart and soon she is let go of UMG Nashville
3. Darius Rucker fails to hit the Top 30 with "My Masterpiece", he releases the followup in March and that climbs more like "Beers and Sunshine" but stalls out in the Top 5.
4. Dierks Bentley releases his album in April, however the album is not too critically acclaimed and doesn't get nominated for any awards. "Beers On Me" hits #1 in May. Followup is Top 10 at the end of the year.
5. "Tequila Little Time" is a MB only #1 in January. New lead single in March that is a very hot seller and becomes Jon's biggest hit since "Dirt On My Boots".
6. "Wild Hearts" continues Keith Urban's streak of Top 10 but no #1. 
7. Little Big Town release a new single that stalls in the 30s but they release a critically acclaimed album that sells very well despite the low airplay from them.
8. "Up" becomes Luke Bryan's first single to miss the Top spot on either chart in a long, long time. Lead single afterwards is a hot selling summer esque single that is one of the biggest hits.
9. Mickey Guyton releases "Remember Her Name" after a memorable Grammy Performance, and it burns hot and fast and has a similar chart run to Kacey Musgraves "Rainbow" did in 2019.

EMI Nashville
1. "I'm Not For Everyone" peaks in the 30s by February, the duo soon sends "Younger Me" to country radio which spends the rest of the year climbing the charts.
2. "Heart On Fire" hits #1 in April for Eric Church, the followup is a more polarizing song that stalls in the teens.
3. Kylie Morgan's debut single is sent to radio in September and it is charting by the end of the year despite a very slow start.

MCA Nashville
1. Catie Offerman's debut single is released in May and gets OTV in June as their is a lot of hype behind her and she is one of the huge breakout singers of 2022.
2. "Buy Dirt" becomes Jordan Davis biggest hit and after hitting #1 in January it is a very slow faller off the charts and is the Mediabase #1 for 2022 due to all the recurrent airplay.
3. MCA tries to send "Justified" to country radio but it does nothing on the chart for Kacey Musgraves despite clear consumer interest.
4. Kip Moore releases a new single but only scrapes the Top 50 due to how polarizing it sounds.
5. Parker McCollum gets "To Be Loved By You" to be a Top 10 but not a #1. Followup is Top 30 at the end of the year.
6. Sam Hunt gets "23" to be a #1 by end of April and like with "Backroad" after that Sam Hunt is pretty much under the radar completely for new music.

Mercury Nashville
1. Billy Currington is dropped from the label or parted ways.
2. Chris Stapleton has a huge year with "You Should Probably Leave" being one of the biggest hits and hits #1 in March. Also wins all the Grammys he is nominated for and gets a Top 10 via Taylor Swift with "I Bet You Think About Me". Also he wins Male/Entertainer at ACMs
3. Lauren Alaina gets "Getting Over Him" to a Top 25 peak by March, the label then releases "Good Ole Boy" to radio in April and gets to the Top 40 by the end of the year.
4. Maddie & Tae release "Mood Rings" to radio and it barely charts and further derails their momentum unfortunately. 
5. Priscilla Block gets "Just About Over You" to a Mediabase only Top 10 in January. Follow-up "My Bar" becomes a sleeper hit of the year as radio really likes her and that single gets her debut album out.
6. Travis Denning releases new music but nothing for radio. 

That's all for now. Sometime sooner than later I will do Sony Nashville next. 

[zdm1998]

^
I always love how detailed yours are. I will make mine similar to yours, because I love the insight of yours.

[raylatch98]

So next up is Sony Nashville

Acts who I don't see doing anything next year.
Adam Doleac (dropped next year), Seaforth, Tenille Townes, Andrew Jannakos, Rachel Wammack (dropped next year), and Pistol Annies 

Arista Nashville
1. Brad Paisley scores his first #1 since "Today" with "Freedom Was A Highway" but no solo music or album from him.
2. Matt Stell has a new single in February but it stalls out similarly to "That Ain't Me No More" further derailing his momentum.
3. Morgan Wade gets a Top 20 single with "Wilder Days" after a very long chart climb. 
4. "No Hard Feelings" gets Old Dominion back to #1 in September.
5. Ryan Hurd releases a new single from his latest album in January but it stalls out in the 30s by October.

Columbia Nashville
1. Elle King gets a Top 10 but not #1 with "Drunk (AIDWGH)".
2. Jameson Rodgers struggles with "Missing One" which only barely scrapes the Top 40 for a peak.
3. Kameron Marlowe manages to get "Giving You Up" to #1 by November after a lengthy chart climb album with the album released in September.
4. Luke Combs doesn't release "Doin This" to radio at first instead goes for an unheard lead single in January which hits #1 in May, then "Doin This" goes to radio and hits #1 followup is nearing #1 by end of year. Album is released in April and is the best selling album of the year.
5. Maren Morris releases a lead single for her next album in January, it is about as successful as "Chasing After You" and becomes a huge hit, but it falls short of #1 on Billboard.

RCA Nashville
1. Chris Young hits #1 with "At The End Of A Bar" in October, in November in a shocking move they release "Town Ain't Big Enough" (with Lauren Alaina)
2. "One Mississippi" hits #1 in March for Kane Brown and album is released in late March and is a very high selling album. Followup single is Top 10 by years end.
3. "If I Was A Cowboy" hits #1 in June, album is released in May and sounds more like Weight Of These Wings than Wildcard.
4. "Paradise To Me" stalls in the 30s as radio doesn't like Niko Moon's music that much and Pulse celebrates.

[Michael G. Sibley]

Nov 30, 2021 11:19:04 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

So next up is Sony Nashville

Acts who I don't see doing anything next year.
Adam Doleac (dropped next year), Seaforth, Tenille Townes, Andrew Jannakos, Rachel Wammack (dropped next year), and Pistol Annies 

Arista Nashville
1. Brad Paisley scores his first #1 since "Today" with "Freedom Was A Highway" but no solo music or album from him.
2. Matt Stell has a new single in February but it stalls out similarly to "That Ain't Me No More" further derailing his momentum.
3. Morgan Wade gets a Top 20 single with "Wilder Days" after a very long chart climb. 
4. "No Hard Feelings" gets Old Dominion back to #1 in September.
5. Ryan Hurd releases a new single from his latest album in January but it stalls out in the 30s by October.

Columbia Nashville
1. Elle King gets a Top 10 but not #1 with "Drunk (AIDWGH)".
2. Jameson Rodgers struggles with "Missing One" which only barely scrapes the Top 40.
3. Kameron Marlowe manages to get "Giving You Up" to #1 by November after a lengthy chart climb album with the album released in September.
4. Luke Combs doesn't release "Doin This" to radio at first instead goes for an unheard lead single in January which hits #1 in May, then "Doin This" goes to radio and hits #1 followup is nearing #1 by end of year. Album is released in April and is the best selling album.
5. Maren Morris releases a lead single for her next album in March, it is about as successful as "Chasing After You" and becomes a huge hit, but it falls short of #1.

RCA Nashville
1. Chris Young hits #1 with "At The End Of A Bar" in October, in November in a shocking move they release "Town Ain't Big Enough" (with Lauren Alaina)
2. "One Mississippi" hits #1 in March for Kane Brown and album is released in late March and is a very high selling album. Followup single is Top 10 by years end.
3. "If I Was A Cowboy" hits #1 in June, album is released in May and sounds more like Weight Of These Wings than Wildcard.
4. "Paradise To Me" stalls in the 30s as radio doesn't like Niko Moon's music that much and Pulse celebrates.

What is your opinion on the artists who are not assigned to any Sony imprint, i.e. James Barker Band, Georgia Webster, Nate Smith, Restless Road among others. They seem to have enough artists to open another imprint.

[zdm1998]

Females:

Carrie Underwood: Releases the lead single off of her seventh studio album in Q2 and is well received, the album is released in late Q3 or early Q4 and is more of a return to form for her after a very experiential Cry Pretty era. I assume this era will play more in radio’s wheelhouse than the last one (hopefully.)
Maren Morris: Lead comes early January (confirmed) and album is dropped around March. Feel like the theme will be more laid back and relaxed, she’s had seashells in her twitter bio for sometime now, so beach theme? Only time will tell. The music will be well received nonetheless.
Kelsea Ballerini: Half of my Hometown hits #1 on both charts sometime in February/March. From the year end edition it looks like her team is opting for a quick turnaround so I assume a lead to be released in April/ May. I assume the album will be dropped in Q4 maybe in November like Unapologetically. Interested to see where she goes sonically with this one; I feel like she is going to try to push barriers even more than with her self-titled.
Miranda Lambert: Drunk peaks somewhere inside the top 10 as does If I Was A Cowboy, neither go #1 though. Miranda’s next album is much less radio friendly than Wildcard leading her to not have quite the radio exposure like she did during Wildcard. The album comes in Q3 and is well received however, maybe a mixture of The Weight of These Wings & Wildcard sonically.
Carly Pearce: Never Wanted to be that Girl goes #1 sometime in March/ April and What He Didn’t Do is released as the followup. What He Didn’t Do becomes her biggest solo hit, surpassing Every Little Thing; this year only continues to build her rise as one of the main females in country music at the moment.
Gabby Barrett: Pick Me Up is released in January/ February and is a long chart run. The song ultimately peaks within the top 5 near the end of the year.
Ingrid Andress: Wishful Drinking turns into a sleeper hit and has a long climb, but is nearing the top of the charts somewhere around this time next year.
Priscilla Block: My Bar is released in Q1 and like Gabby and Ingrid has a slow climb up the chart. This one mirrors the chart run of Just About Over You, but manages to peak inside the top 10.
Mickey Guyton: I feel like she could go either way. I’ll give a pessimistic opinion and an optimistic opinion. Her label continues to keep her visible and book her on major television outlets, but still doesn’t click with the general public (Pessimistic side). She wins her first Grammy and her label sends the title track to radio immediately following them and becomes a top 40 hit (optimistic side).
Lauren Alaina: Lauren’s opry membership/ induction gives Getting Over Him enough momentum to score a top 20 peak. Good Ole Boy is released as the next single and becomes a sleeper hit.
Tenille Arts: Back then right now takes the majority of 2022 to climb, but ultimately climbs to the top spot somewhere in Q3. She follows it up with One Bedroom Apartment which connects much better than her first two singles, and becomes her biggest hit to date.
(only did the ones I know enough to have an opinion on, may do some of the guys if I'm bored, but wanted to make sure I got these in)

[christianlarson9]

Dec 21, 2021 10:17:19 GMT -5 zdm1998 said:

Females:

Carrie Underwood: Releases the lead single off of her seventh studio album in Q2 and is well received, the album is released in late Q3 or early Q4 and is more of a return to form for her after a very experiential Cry Pretty era. I assume this era will play more in radio’s wheelhouse than the last one (hopefully.)
Maren Morris: Lead comes early January (confirmed) and album is dropped around March. Feel like the theme will be more laid back and relaxed, she’s had seashells in her twitter bio for sometime now, so beach theme? Only time will tell. The music will be well received nonetheless.
Kelsea Ballerini: Half of my Hometown hits #1 on both charts sometime in February/March. From the year end edition it looks like her team is opting for a quick turnaround so I assume a lead to be released in April/ May. I assume the album will be dropped in Q4 maybe in November like Unapologetically. Interested to see where she goes sonically with this one; I feel like she is going to try to push barriers even more than with her self-titled.
Miranda Lambert: Drunk peaks somewhere inside the top 10 as does If I Was A Cowboy, neither go #1 though. Miranda’s next album is much less radio friendly than Wildcard leading her to not have quite the radio exposure like she did during Wildcard. The album comes in Q3 and is well received however, maybe a mixture of The Weight of These Wings & Wildcard sonically.
Carly Pearce: Never Wanted to be that Girl goes #1 sometime in March/ April and What He Didn’t Do is released as the followup. What He Didn’t Do becomes her biggest solo hit, surpassing Every Little Thing; this year only continues to build her rise as one of the main females in country music at the moment.
Gabby Barrett: Pick Me Up is released in January/ February and is a long chart run. The song ultimately peaks within the top 5 near the end of the year.
Ingrid Andress: Wishful Drinking turns into a sleeper hit and has a long climb, but is nearing the top of the charts somewhere around this time next year.
Priscilla Block: My Bar is released in Q1 and like Gabby and Ingrid has a slow climb up the chart. This one mirrors the chart run of Just About Over You, but manages to peak inside the top 10.
Mickey Guyton: I feel like she could go either way. I’ll give a pessimistic opinion and an optimistic opinion. Her label continues to keep her visible and book her on major television outlets, but still doesn’t click with the general public (Pessimistic side). She wins her first Grammy and her label sends the title track to radio immediately following them and becomes a top 40 hit (optimistic side).
Lauren Alaina: Lauren’s opry membership/ induction gives Getting Over Him enough momentum to score a top 20 peak. Good Ole Boy is released as the next single and becomes a sleeper hit.
Tenille Arts: Back then right now takes the majority of 2022 to climb, but ultimately climbs to the top spot somewhere in Q3. She follows it up with One Bedroom Apartment which connects much better than her first two singles, and becomes her biggest hit to date.
(only did the ones I know enough to have an opinion on, may do some of the guys if I'm bored, but wanted to make sure I got these in)

I love all of these predictions and hope everything comes true! Personally rooting hard for Ingrid Andress to gain some traction back and have a successful sophomore era.

[raylatch98]

Alright next up Warner. 

Warner Nashville
(WMN)
1. Blake Shelton hits #1 with "Come Back As A Country Boy" but the followup fails to hit the Top 10.
2. Nothing new from Robyn Ottolini
3. Cole Swindell has his biggest hit with "Never Say Never" which becomes a multi week #1 and makes it to the Billboard Year End Hot 100 chart.
4. Brett Eldredge fails to make the Top 40 with "Holy Water"
5. Cody Johnson also has the biggest radio hit with "Til You Can't" and like Cole Swindell also hits the year end Hot 100 for 2022 as well for the song. 
6. Drew Parker fails to hit the Top 30 with "While You're Gone"
7. Trea Landon is dropped.

(WAR)
1. Nothing from Charlie Worsham or Shy Carter,
2. Ashley McBryde scores her first #1 with "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" in April and releases a new lead single in June which is Top 30 at the end of the year with an album in October
3. Chris Janson scores a Top 10 but not #1 with "Bye Mom"
4. Dan + Shay stick with "Steal Your Love" until May where it scrapes the Top 20 and they release new music in July which stands out and becomes their biggest hit since "Tequila"
5. Gabby Barrett fails to make the Top 40 with her fourth single and spends the rest of the year making new music for her second album.
6. Troy Cartwright and Tucker Bearhard are dropped from the label.
7. Zac Brown Band fails to make the Top 20 with "Out In The Middle"

(WEA)
1. Nothing from Devin Dawson, Ian Munsick, 
2. Ingrid Andress spends the whole year climbing to a Top 20 peak for "Wishful Drinking" at the end of the year.
3. Kenny Chesney scores a #1 in October with "Everyone She Knows" he also has a very successful tour as well that is one of the most sold out shows.
4. Michael Ray scores a #1 in January with "Whiskey and Rain" follow up fails to make it into the Top 20 however.
5. Morgan Evans misses the Top 40 with "Love Is Real" by July, he releases a duet with wife Kelsea Ballerini in September however it does not go to radio.

(Unsigned Artists)
Jessie James Decker and Temecula Road get assigned label promos.

Big Machine
1. Callista Clark struggles with the followup to "It's Cause I Am" as her debut single peaks in the teens by March.
2. Carly Pearce scores two #1s in the year with "Never Wanted To Be That Girl" in April and "What He Didn't Do" November with "Your Drinking My Problem" being released in December
3. Jackson Dean's debut single fails to make the Top 30.
4. Midland fails to make the Top 40 with "Sunrise Tells The Story" which peaks in May struggling constantly for so long.
5. Tim McGraw gets a Top 20 but not Top 10 with "7500 OBO"
6. Conner Smith and Eli Young Band struggle to gain much traction. 
7. Thomas Rhett scores two #1s during 2022 with "Slow Down Summer" and another song. 
8. Much to Pulse's shock and joy Tiera becomes a success on radio during the summer and has a Top 10 by year end.
9. Brett Young has a sleeper hit with "You Didn't" which is nearing the Top 10 by end of the year.
10. Laci Kaye Booth fails to make the Top 50 with "Shuffle"
11. Lady A fails to make the Top 30 on radio with the followup for "Like A Lady"

Stay tuned, I will have the last stretch of artists before the end of the year so stay tuned.

[recordyear]

Dec 21, 2021 22:05:21 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

2. Nothing new from Brett Eldredge, Robyn Ottolini

Didn't even need to wait for 2022 to be wrong lmao, because he is releasing a song called Holy Water tomorrow. I don't know the purpose of the song yet.

[raylatch98]

Dec 23, 2021 11:28:44 GMT -5 recordyear said:

Dec 21, 2021 22:05:21 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

2. Nothing new from Brett Eldredge, Robyn Ottolini

Didn't even need to wait for 2022 to be wrong lmao, because he is releasing a song called Holy Water tomorrow. I don't know the purpose of the song yet.

If it isn't for radio though I will still maintain that stance.

[recordyear]

Dec 23, 2021 11:46:45 GMT -5 raylatch98 said:

Dec 23, 2021 11:28:44 GMT -5 recordyear said:

Didn't even need to wait for 2022 to be wrong lmao, because he is releasing a song called Holy Water tomorrow. I don't know the purpose of the song yet.

If it isn't for radio though I will still maintain that stance.

I'd guess "upcoming album" means a country radio single is inevitable.

[raylatch98]

So time for me to get the last of the artists I have yet to say anything about.

Broken Bow Records
1. Chase Rice spends the whole year climbing with "If I Were Rock & Roll" which misses the Top 20.
2. Dusin Lynch releases an unreleased song to radio in Feburary after "Thinking Bout You" is off the chart. It spends the rest of the year climbing nearing #1 around this time.
3. Jason Aldean's next single misses the Top 5 on Billboard like "We Back" did and peaks in August, followup is Top 20 at the end of the year.
4. "Never Say Never" cements Lainey Wilson's spot in the genre as it peaks in May. New unheard song from her in June that also does very well.
5. Nothing new from Craig Morgan, Everette, John Morgan
6. Tyler Farr gets dropped from the label

Stoney Creek Records
1. Frank Ray scores a Top 30 but stalls out in the 20s due to lack of any interest for "Country Looks Good On You" and no debut album
2. Jimmie Allen scores a MB only #1 in February for "Freedom Was A Highway" followup is Top 20 at end of the year
3. Lindsay Ell scores her second Top 10 in November with her duet with Chayce Beckham.
4. Parmalee scores their third #1 in September with "Take My Name" which becomes one of the biggest hits of the year and even bigger than "Just The Way"
5. New music but nothing for radio for Drake Milligan, King Calaway, and Track45 during the year.

Wheelhouse Records
1. Elvie Shane's followup to "My Boy" stalls out in the 30s and he is more cemented as a one hit wonder.
2. Kolby Cooper debut single goes out in June and is Top 40 at the end of the year.
3. No new radio singles from Blanco Brown, Granger Smith or LoCash during the year.
4. Runaway June and Skyamore are dropped from the label.

Other Labels/Etc
1. Dylan Scott and Lee Brice score Mediabase only #1s with their latest singles "My Truck" and "Soul" respectively, Ruthie Collins scores a Top 30 but not Top 20 with "Hypocrite" and Hannah Ellis scrapes the Top 60.
2. Chris Lane fails to make the Top 30 with "Fill Them Boots" followup fails to make Top 40. ERNEST is a huge success story with "Flower Shop" his duet with Morgan Wallen. Speaking of Morgan Wallen he scores three #1s this year with "Sand In My Boots", "Flower Shop" and a new lead single. HARDY misses the Top 10 with "Give Heaven Some Hell" same with Jake Owen and "Best Thing Since Backroads" but Jake Owen does release an album that despite the lead single is pretty decently acclaimed. New music but no radio singles from Mackenzie Porter, Lily Rose and Hailey Whitters. 
3. Kelsea Ballerini score two Top 10s this year with "Half Of My Hometown" in March and the next single which will be uptempo and a new album in September.
4. Russell Dickerson misses the Top 10 on Billboard with "Home Sweet" new lead single in June that is Top 20 at years end with an album released in November. 
5. Scotty McCreery scores his fifth straight #1 with "Damn Straight" which hits #1 in August.
6. Walker Hayes sells very well throughout the year but "AA" stalls in the Top 10 due to poor callout scores. Caitlyn Smith's next radio single fails to make the Top 40.
7. Tenille Arts marathon chart climb to a Top 10 peak for "Back Then Right Now" which peaks in August. 

[zdm1998]

Oh I hope Runaway June doesn't get dropped. They are so underrated.