BB200 - 12/18/21 - Adele week 3

[Gary]

Adele’s ‘30’ Hits Third Week at No. 1 on Billboard 200 Albums Chart
Plus: Polo G's No. 1 "Hall of Fame" returns to top five after deluxe reissue and Vince Guaraldi Trio's "A Charlie Brown Christmas" hits new peak.


By Keith Caulfield

Adele’s 30 racks up a third straight and total week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart. The set earned 193,000 equivalent album units in the U.S. in the week ending Dec. 9, according to MRC Data (down 33% compared to the previous week).

30 continues to be a sturdy performer, as it captures the largest third week for any album in more than three years, since Drake’s chart-topping Scorpion earned 260,000 in its third frame (chart dated July 28, 2018).

Elsewhere in the top 10, Polo G’s former No. 1 Hall of Fame jumps back into the top 10, vaulting 69-3, after it was reissued on Dec. 3 with 14 additional bonus tracks, while Vince Guaraldi Trio’s soundtrack to the animated TV special A Charlie Brown Christmas hits a new peak, rising 10-9.

The Billboard 200 chart ranks the most popular albums of the week in the U.S. based on multi-metric consumption as measured in equivalent album units. Units comprise album sales, track equivalent albums (TEA) and streaming equivalent albums (SEA). Each unit equals one album sale, or 10 individual tracks sold from an album, or 3,750 ad-supported or 1,250 paid/subscription on-demand official audio and video streams generated by songs from an album. The new Dec. 18, 2021-dated chart (where 30 spends a third week at No. 1) will be posted in full on Billboard‘s website on Dec. 14. For all chart news, follow billboard and billboardcharts on both Twitter and Instagram.

Of 30’s 193,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. in the week ending Dec. 2, album sales comprise 149,000 (down 34%), SEA units comprise 43,000 (down 29%, equaling 57.87 million on-demand streams of the set’s track) and TEA units comprise less than 2,000 units (down 24%).

Taylor Swift’s former No. 1 Red (Taylor’s Version) is non-mover at No. 2 with 80,000 equivalent album units earned (down 22%).

Polo G’s chart-topping Hall of Fame surges back into the top 10, rising 69-3 after it was reissued on Dec. 3 with 14 additional bonus tracks. The album earned 78,000 equivalent album units in the latest tracking week (up 468%), nearly all from streaming activity. Of its total sum for the week, SEA units comprise 76,000 (up 461%, equaling 110.34 million on-demand streams of the set’s now-34 tracks).

Michael Bublé’s chart-topping Christmas is pushed down 3-4, despite an increase in activity, as it earned 60,000 equivalent album units for the week (up 3%). The latest tracking week included the Dec. 6 premiere of Bublé’s latest NBC TV special, Michael Bublé’s Christmas in the City.


Olivia Rodrigo’s former No. 1 Sour falls 4-5 with 51,000 equivalent album units earned (up 5%), Morgan Wallen’s former leader Dangerous: The Double Album is a non-mover at No. 6 with 48,000 units (up 6%), and Drake’s No. 1 Certified Lover Boy dips 5-7 with 47,000 units (down 3%).

Mariah Carey’s evergreen 1994 album, Merry Christmas, rises 14-8 with 40,000 equivalent album units earned (up 20%). The album, which contains her seasonal smash “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” peaked at No. 3 on the Dec. 17, 1994-dated chart. Merry Christmas has returned to the Billboard 200’s top 10 in each of the last four holiday seasons.

Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas soundtrack hits a new peak, climbing 10-9, surpassing its previous high of No. 10. The album earned 39,000 equivalent album units in the week ending Dec. 9 (up 9%).

A Charlie Brown Christmas was released in 1965 and did not reach any Billboard ranking until 1987. That year, it debuted on the Top Holiday Albums chart, where it later peaked at No. 2 (Jan. 27, 2007). The album first reached the top 10 on the Billboard 200 dated Jan. 2, 2021, when it peaked at No. 10.

[Gary]

1. Adele 193,000 (sales 149,000)
2. Taylor Swift 80,000
3. Polo G 78,000 (14 additional bonus tracks from 20 to 34)
4. Michael Buble 60,000
5. Olivia Rodrigo 51,000
6. Morgan Wallen 48,000
7. Drake 47,000
8. Mariah Carey (1994) 40,000
9. Vince Guraldi Trio 39,000
10.  Doja Cat 39,000

[fridayteenage]

First 3 sales weeks
25 3378, 30 692 (20.5%)
25 1112, 30 225 (20.2%)
25 695, 30 149 (21.4%)

[Envoirment]

Great to see 30 slightly higher on Billboard. Hopefully it'll see some gains in sales in the run up to Christmas.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

No #10 ... It probably should be Planet Her, according to HITS' predictions.

[areyoureadytojump]

I'll email Keith.

www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/adele-30-billboard-200-chart-number-one-third-week-1235008486/

[fridayteenage]

At least 4 weeks in the top 2 for solo female albums:
2012: Red
2013: Beyonce
2014: 1989
2015: 25
2016: Lemonade
2017: Reputation
2018: n/a
2019: When We All Fall Asleep, Thank U Next
2020: Folklore, Evermore
2021: Sour, Planet Her, Red TV

Good year for female music it would appear.

[forg]

What's the figure for SOUR in total pure sales?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Combining oldbloke @ UKMix's data with that predicted by HITS this week, it would be around 474k. It could be one of five albums (all by women) to manage 500k pure sales for 2021, along with 30, Evermore, Red (TV) and Fearless (TV).

[wavey.]

[areyoureadytojump]

#10 has been added:

"Doja Cat’s Planet Her rounds out the top 10, rising 12-10 with 39,000 equivalent album units (up 12%)."

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[fridayteenage]

Dec 13, 2021 23:27:49 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Already matched the number of 500k sellers during 2019 (lover/when we all fall asleep) and 2020 (folklore/map of the soul 7).

Nice feat when people on sites like this love to say that sales don't matter/aren't relevant/should be removed from charts.

[Enigma.]

Summer Walker already out of top ten? That was fast...

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Holiday albums and lack of a sustained hit from the album are the most important causes for that. The equivalent albums threshold to be in the top 10 has risen significant over the last few weeks as well.

[areyoureadytojump]

Thanks to oldbloke:

ALBUM SPS WEEK 49

Rank Estimated EAS TITLE Artist

1 3,090,000 DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM Morgan Wallen - 2xP
2 2,689,000 SOUR Olivia Rodrigo - 2xP
3 1,851,000 CERTIFIED LOVER BOY Drake - not certified
4 1,471,000 SHOOT FOR THE STARS AIM FOR THE MOON Pop Smoke - 2xP
5 1,440,000 F*CK LOVE Kid Laroi - 1xP
6 1,439,000 30 Adele - not certified
7 1,417,000 JUSTICE Justin Bieber - 1xP
8 1,401,000 PLANET HER Doja Cat - not certified
9 1,349,000 FUTURE NOSTALGIA Dua Lipa - 1xP
10 1,279,000 AFTER HOURS The Weeknd - 2xP

[iHype.]

I’m kinda surprised Adele is at 57m streams by week 3.

Adele will definitely only do Q4 releases for the foreseeable future. Her sales reach just far outweighs her streaming reach. Wouldn’t make any sense for her label to not keep doing Holiday based schedules.

Views/Lover/Folklore sold similarly their first 3 weeks in pure sales if I’m not mistaken, but had much higher streams. So just because she is selling relatively high pure doesn’t mean her streams can’t be much better.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 16, 2021 12:21:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I’m kinda surprised Adele is at 57m streams by week 3.

Adele will definitely only do Q4 releases for the foreseeable future. Her sales reach just far outweighs her streaming reach. Wouldn’t make any sense for her label to not keep doing Holiday based schedules.

Views/Lover/Folklore sold similarly their first 3 weeks in pure sales if I’m not mistaken, but had much higher streams. So just because she is selling relatively high pure doesn’t mean her streams can’t be much better.

I agree in general, but for the Swift releases in particular, weren't those sales boosted by signed copies and other things?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Dec 16, 2021 12:21:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I’m kinda surprised Adele is at 57m streams by week 3.

Adele will definitely only do Q4 releases for the foreseeable future. Her sales reach just far outweighs her streaming reach. Wouldn’t make any sense for her label to not keep doing Holiday based schedules.

Views/Lover/Folklore sold similarly their first 3 weeks in pure sales if I’m not mistaken, but had much higher streams. So just because she is selling relatively high pure doesn’t mean her streams can’t be much better.

album sales in first 3 weeks:

Views 1,110,000
30 1,066,000
Lover 805,000
folklore 712,000

4th weeks:

30 ~1,180,000
Views 1,160,000

but, we shouldn't compare 2016 and 2021 albums, and I don't think we should compare Drake and Adele too. In its 3rd week Adele's 30 had 150k sales and 58M streams Vs Drake's CLB 4k and 222M streams. also out of these 4 listed, "30" is the only album released in the post-bundle era. 

3rd week SPS / # of tracks:

Views 186M / 20 = 9,3M (up by 32% compared to the 2nd week because it was released on all platforms); it had 140M streams in its 2nd week or 7M per track.
folklore 90M / 16 = 5,6M
30 58M / 12 = 4,83M
Lover ~85M / 18 = ~4,72M

On streaming, "30" is doing just fine. It's not great, but it's not bad either.

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2021 14:13:02 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Dec 16, 2021 12:21:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I’m kinda surprised Adele is at 57m streams by week 3.

Adele will definitely only do Q4 releases for the foreseeable future. Her sales reach just far outweighs her streaming reach. Wouldn’t make any sense for her label to not keep doing Holiday based schedules.

Views/Lover/Folklore sold similarly their first 3 weeks in pure sales if I’m not mistaken, but had much higher streams. So just because she is selling relatively high pure doesn’t mean her streams can’t be much better.

album sales in first 3 weeks:

Views 1,110,000
30 1,066,000
Lover 805,000
folklore 712,000

4th weeks:

30 ~1,180,000
Views 1,160,000

but, we shouldn't compare 2016 and 2021 albums, and I don't think we should compare Drake and Adele too. In its 3rd week Adele had 150k sales and 58M streams Vs Drake's CLB 4k and 222M streams. also out of these 4 listed, "30" is the only album released in the post-bundle era. 

3rd week SPS / # of tracks:

Views 186M / 20 = 9,3M (up by 32% compared to the 2nd week because it was released on all platforms); it had 140M streams in its 2nd week or 7M per track.
folklore 90M / 16 = 5,6M
30 58M / 12 = 4,83M
Lover ~85M / 18 = ~4,72M

On streaming, "30" is doing just fine. It's not great, but it's not bad either.

I’m not getting why would we would avoid a Views comparison, when if anything, a 2016 comparison should be favorable to 30.

Streaming was infant in 2016 compared to 2021. Thus if Views was pulling 100 million+ streams while selling similarly a million copies in 3 weeks, an album today that sells a million copies in 3 weeks would in theory also be able to pull huge streaming numbers similar to Views if the artist is connecting big in streaming like with sales.

CLB’s comparison makes no sense. I said despite selling lots of pure copies her streaming could still be better. CLB had minuscule pure sales so it obviously makes no sense in context as a comparison of the streaming ceiling an album has when selling high amounts of pure sales.

I used Lover/Views/Folklore because as I said, those were albums that sold somewhere around 1 million~ in 3 weeks like “30”, from artists who are also big on streaming. They all were pulling higher streaming numbers.

Averages is a moot point, because you’re assuming every track is streamed equally. Not true, but especially not true by *third week* where album tracks have largely dipped and it tends to be hit singles carrying the album.

“Easy On Me” is a bigger hit than Folklore/Lover’s singles and probably bigger than “One Dance” was by week 3 of Views, yet the album is still doing less streams which is even more evidence, that perhaps 30 could be streaming better despite being a big sales success.

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2021 12:34:05 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 16, 2021 12:21:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

I’m kinda surprised Adele is at 57m streams by week 3.

Adele will definitely only do Q4 releases for the foreseeable future. Her sales reach just far outweighs her streaming reach. Wouldn’t make any sense for her label to not keep doing Holiday based schedules.

Views/Lover/Folklore sold similarly their first 3 weeks in pure sales if I’m not mistaken, but had much higher streams. So just because she is selling relatively high pure doesn’t mean her streams can’t be much better.

I agree in general, but for the Swift releases in particular, weren't those sales boosted by signed copies and other things?

Yes they did have like 100-200k bundled sales probably if I’m not mistaken, but as I pointed out in the previous post, “Easy On Me” is also a much bigger streaming hit than the Lover singles were and Folklore never had a real hit take off, so the fact they were also still pulling higher streaming numbers by week 3 while selling the pure sales they did shows 30’s streaming could indeed be much better.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Dec 16, 2021 14:31:08 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Dec 16, 2021 14:13:02 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

album sales in first 3 weeks:

CLB’s comparison makes no sense. I said despite selling lots of pure copies her streaming could still be better. CLB had minuscule pure sales so it obviously makes no sense in context as a comparison of the streaming ceiling an album has when selling high amounts of pure sales.

I used Lover/Views/Folklore because as I said, those were albums that sold somewhere around 1 million~ in 3 weeks like “30”, from artists who are also big on streaming. They all were pulling higher streaming numbers.

Averages is a moot point, because you’re assuming every track is streamed equally. Not true, but especially not true by *third week* where album tracks have largely dipped and it tends to be hit singles carrying the album.

but Lover and folklore are not on the same level as 30 when it comes to pure sales. 30 reached 1M in less than 3 weeks, folklore in 3 months and Lover in 4. I think folklore reached 1,5M pure sales in 16 months, 30 will reach that mark by the end of the year (6-7 weeks). 

My point on CLB vs 30 was that people consume their music differently. In the last 10 years, Drake, Adele and Taylor are the biggest album artists in the US. Drake is huge at streaming, Adele in pure sales and Taylor is the best of both worlds. Like I said, 30 isn't huge on streaming, but who can sell 100k+ pure copies in their 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th week? 

I agree, averages is a 'moot point', but you also can't compare overall streaming numbers of Taylor's "Red (TV)", Morgan's "Dangerous" or Kanye's "DONDA" to Adele's "30" or Olivia's "SOUR".

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2021 15:49:38 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Dec 16, 2021 14:31:08 GMT -5 iHype. said:

CLB’s comparison makes no sense. I said despite selling lots of pure copies her streaming could still be better. CLB had minuscule pure sales so it obviously makes no sense in context as a comparison of the streaming ceiling an album has when selling high amounts of pure sales.

I used Lover/Views/Folklore because as I said, those were albums that sold somewhere around 1 million~ in 3 weeks like “30”, from artists who are also big on streaming. They all were pulling higher streaming numbers.

Averages is a moot point, because you’re assuming every track is streamed equally. Not true, but especially not true by *third week* where album tracks have largely dipped and it tends to be hit singles carrying the album.

but Lover and folklore are not on the same level as 30 when it comes to pure sales. 30 reached 1M in less than 3 weeks, folklore in 3 months and Lover in 4. I think folklore reached 1,5M pure sales in 16 months, 30 will reach that mark by the end of the year (6-7 weeks). 

My point on CLB vs 30 was that people consume their music differently. In the last 10 years, Drake, Adele and Taylor are the biggest album artists in the US. Drake is huge at streaming, Adele in pure sales and Taylor is the best of both worlds. Like I said, 30 isn't huge on streaming, but who can sell 100k+ pure copies in their 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th week? 

I agree, averages is a 'moot point', but you also can't compare overall streaming numbers of Taylor's "Red (TV)", Morgan's "Dangerous" or Kanye's "DONDA" to Adele's "30" or Olivia's "SOUR".

Okay, so we are in agreement with what I said no?

Her pure sales are obviously high numbers for today, but her streaming could be higher all things considered. 

She is going to be Q4 targeted with further releases. She doesn’t have streaming pull similar to her Q4 sales pull to justify releasing any other time of the year if this era is any indication. 

[jenglisbe]

Are sales still larger in Q4? I mean, I know holiday albums do well now, but are general sales still higher? Since physical sales aren't a thing anymore outside of Adele and stan stuff, I don't think Black Friday and Christmas are really a boost anymore are they?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Dec 16, 2021 16:02:00 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Dec 16, 2021 15:49:38 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Okay, so we are in agreement with what I said no?

Her pure sales are obviously high numbers for today, but her streaming could be higher all things considered. 

She is going to be Q4 targeted with further releases. She doesn’t have streaming pull similar to her Q4 sales pull to justify releasing any other time of the year if this era is any indication. 

I mean, yes, it could be higher, but I'm not surprised it isn't. I had high expectations before the release, because we didn't know what to expect, but after the first week I'm not that focused on her streaming. I bought the album, and I can't remember the last time I streamed 30, and this is probably the case with many people? idk.

[iHype.]

Dec 16, 2021 16:04:42 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Are sales still larger in Q4? I mean, I know holiday albums do well now, but are general sales still higher? Since physical sales aren't a thing anymore outside of Adele and stan stuff, I don't think Black Friday and Christmas are really a boost anymore are they?

In general Q4 effect is gone for the most part (now there is a Vinyl boost, but Vinyl ofcourse is still such a small format in terms of units and 10-15k~ boosts are nothing compared to when albums would do up to a million more from Q4 boosts). 

Adele is a one time exception though it seems for sure. Her sales every week since release have definitely had a big attribution to people buying her album as a gift (HITS even said this), the special she had with NBC where many families at home for the Holidays watched, the posters/stands for her album in stores during the busiest time for in-person shopping, etc. 

She has been doing six figure sales units every week, and once January comes she will probably suddenly drop down to like 20k pure a week. Obviously the only reason an album would drastically drop like that after 5+ weeks even with a #1 song is a major Holiday boost waring off. 

She would’ve likely struggled to do like half of what she’s done so far in pure with an April or July release for example. 

[Envoirment]

Adele's streaming is holding up better than I thought it would given its lower than expected debut week. 4 tracks are top 100 on Apple Music still and 2 on spotify. We'll likely see a lot of the album re-enter the charts once Christmas is over. "Oh My God" will likely get a lot more playlist support come the new year when it gets pushed and a music video is released.

I don't think the album will slump too hard come January between "Oh My God" being pushed, her Vegas residency starting and a possible Grammy performance at the end of the month. I have a feeling they might record a night of her residency to show on TV at some point for promo too.