Billboard Hot 100: 01/22/2022

[rimetm]

Video streams will likely give Sacrifice the edge on the metric. Pushin' P had ~4.5m global YT views while Sacrifice has ~20m. In addition, while Pushin' P lacks significant radio presence, while Sacrifice got a push that nabbed it ~10.9m AI on MediaBase. Less decisive, though still worth noting, is that Pushin' P will have nominal sales while Sacrifice looks to have somewhere between 2 and 3k.

[Enigma.]

Oh I thought Sacrifice is not a radio single. That might change it yes.

[iHype.]

The streaming numbers HITS provided this week seem to be.... off quite a bit for various songs. But I was interested in predicting this week regardless.

[forg]

I hope We Don't Talk About Bruno goes #2

[gikem]

Tons of songs that came back last week (plus Thinking 'Bout You) are expected to go recurrent for good this week - though not either Levitating or SYT.

[annoymous1]

Next week Super Gremlin top 5....great 😑!

[atg]

There is no way Sacrifice misses the top 10. Does anyone know what happened to it and why people are predicting it to be outside of the top 10?

[fridayteenage]

Looked through 9 years of Streaming Songs history. Easy on Me is the 3rd song to have 3 #1 weeks while being outside the top 3 on both streaming and sales.
Alongside fellow radio eternally overplayed Mood and Girls Like You.

From 2006-2012, the full digital years, only One More Night had 3 topping weeks while outside the sales top 3.

[ginie]

Jan 11, 2022 23:31:22 GMT -5 edward said:

Jan 11, 2022 22:45:58 GMT -5 shayonce said:

BTS fans already found the way to game the spotify streaming. I think they still can get #1.

Yeah do y'all forget that BTS stans just got my universe streamed over 600k times a day in Vietnam a few days ago. They'll be fine until spotify finally do something. Then they'll start yelling about the industry being xenophobic and racist again.

They did it again with dynamite. It was around 40k streams 2 days ago but then got 450k streams (in Vietnam)

[jayhawk1117]

It's literally never gonna fly in Spotify US 💀. It would not at all be suspicious that the act that has consistently had middling performance is now topping the chart with more than double everyone else, would have nothing to with their main to cheat being nerfed; not a chance 😂

And if it does, the stans will be SWIFT to jump to "Playlisting = Xenophobia" if anyone popular even dares to say anything.

[strongerq]

^Billboard can limit it at 10 streams daily (like it is in the UK) if they want to. But Spotify won't change anything.

You have to remember that Spotify pays royalties based on total streams (unfiltered), not chart streams.
www.theverge.com/2015/6/23/8830029/eternify-spotify-loop-payments

And more streams don't hurt Spotify. Example:
A company like Coca-Cola wants to play an ad on Spotify. The ad rate is ~0.025$ per ad played (40 ads for every dollar). They pay $1M so 40 million ads need to be served around the world. The more specific the targeted demographic the more it costs.

Spotify will play the ad on free users after X songs/X mintes regardless of which songs are played (it can be 5 different song or the same song 5 times it is all the same). And given that the (fake) accounts they are making are all free, more ads can be played. On a larger scale it isn't that many ads but it is still more, AND MORE IS BETTER.

Keep this in mind. Spotify had $376M from ads in Q3 2021 (+71% compared to Q2). YouTube made $7.2B in the same quarter from ads. YouTube is like the best example for a successful platform based on ad-revenue model. My point is sky is the limit.

More streams bring more revenue, so looping is even good for bussiness.

[NeRD]

Assuming the numbers are somewhat accurate, Adele's gap is still huge.

[jenglisbe]

Jan 16, 2022 7:42:29 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Assuming the numbers are somewhat accurate, Adele's gap is still huge.

Is anyone surprised? "EOM" has like a 95 million impressions lead, which is equal to ~20 million streams, depending on the kind of streams. "Bruno" doesn't lead by nearly that much so it won't threaten for #1 unless it takes off even more.

[After Minutes]

Jan 16, 2022 6:02:36 GMT -5 strongerq said:

^Billboard can limit it at 10 streams daily (like it is in the UK) if they want to. But Spotify won't change anything.

You have to remember that Spotify pays royalties based on total streams (unfiltered), not chart streams.
www.theverge.com/2015/6/23/8830029/eternify-spotify-loop-payments

And more streams don't hurt Spotify. Example:
A company like Coca-Cola wants to play an ad on Spotify. The ad rate is ~0.025$ per ad played (40 ads for every dollar). They pay $1M so 40 million ads need to be served around the world. The more specific the targeted demographic the more it costs.

Spotify will play the ad on free users after X songs/X mintes regardless of which songs are played (it can be 5 different song or the same song 5 times it is all the same). And given that the (fake) accounts they are making are all free, more ads can be played. On a larger scale it isn't that many ads but it is still more, AND MORE IS BETTER.

Keep this in mind. Spotify had $376M from ads in Q3 2021 (+71% compared to Q2). YouTube made $7.2B in the same quarter from ads. YouTube is like the best example for a successful platform based on ad-revenue model. My point is sky is the limit.

More streams bring more revenue, so looping is even good for bussiness.

That doesn't really prevent Spotify from simply not reporting those streams. If the situation gets out of hand then labels and artists could very simply push their fans to consume music on other platforms, like Apple Music, and I could see some artists debuting their songs a week ahead on a certain platform or making them exclusive for that platform if that makes commercial sense.

And then nothing is really stopping a platform like Apple Music making the subscription fee cheaper if that would drive their revenue, or possibly even entering some kind of sub partnership with Netflix or Disney+, where they have a joint subscribtion. Vietnam is irrelevant to Spotify so allowing a small group of fanatics to essentially farm them ads there makes sense, but allowing that in the US is a terrible idea since they have legitimate competition here, and allowing all this bs here could give them an upper hand.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jan 16, 2022 0:10:36 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Looked through 9 years of Streaming Songs history. Easy on Me is the 3rd song to have 3 #1 weeks while being outside the top 3 on both streaming and sales.
Alongside fellow radio eternally overplayed Mood and Girls Like You.

From 2006-2012, the full digital years, only One More Night had 3 topping weeks while outside the sales top 3.

I’ll always be salty about Gangnam Style and Lucid Dreams getting blocked by those two god awful Maroon 5 songs.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 15, 2022 23:37:41 GMT -5 atg said:

There is no way Sacrifice misses the top 10. Does anyone know what happened to it and why people are predicting it to be outside of the top 10?

If it does miss it, you can blame its underperformance at Apple Music and late in the week official video release at YouTube.

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

January 20, 1962

01 01 The Twist - Chubby Checker (3rd and final week at #1)
02 03 Peppermint Twist (Part 1) - Joey Dee & The Starlighters
03 02 The Lion Sleeps Tonight - The Tokens
04 04 Can't Help Falling In Love - Elvis Presley
05 05 I Know (You Don't Love Me No More) - Barbara George
06 06 Happy Birthday, Sweet Sixteen - Neil Sedaka
07 07 Walk On By - Leroy Van Dyke
08 08 Run To Him - Bobby Vee
09 12 When I Fall In Love - The Lettermen
10 17 Norman - Sue Thompson


January 21, 1967

01 01 I'm a Believer - The Monkees (4th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 02 Snoopy Vs. The Red Baron - The Royal Guardsmen
03 03 Tell It Like It Is - Aaron Neville
04 04 Good Thing - Paul Revere & The Raiders feat. Mark Lindsey
05 06 Words Of Love - The Mamas & The Papas
06 07 Standing In The Shadows Of Love - The Four Tops
07 10 Georgy Girl - The Seekers
08 05 Sugar Town - Nancy Sinatra
09 16 Nashville Cats - The Lovin' Spoonful
10 12 Tell It To The Rain - The Four Seasons

15 42 Kind Of a Drag - The Buckinghams


January 22, 1972

01 01 American Pie (Parts 1 & 2) - Don McLean (2nd of 4 weeks at #1)
02 02 Brand New Key - Melanie
03 03 Let's Stay Together - Al Green
04 04 Sunshine - Jonathan Edwards
05 14 Day After Day - Badfinger
06 06 Scorpio - Dennis Coffey & The Detroit Guitar Band
07 07 I'd Like To Teach The World To Sing (In Perfect Harmony) - The New Seekers
08 10 Clean Up Woman - Betty Wright
09 11 You Are Everything - The Stylistics
10 12 Sugar Daddy - The Jackson 5


January 22, 1977

01 02 I Wish - Stevie Wonder (1st and only week at #1)
02 03 Car Wash - Rose Royce
03 01 You Make Me Feel Like Dancing - Leo Sayer
04 05 Dazz - Brick
05 04 You Don't Have To Be a Star (To Be In My Show) - Marilyn McCoo & Billy Davis Jr.
06 08 Hot Line - The Sylvers
07 12 New Kid In Town - The Eagles
08 09 After The Lovin' - Engelbert Humperdinck
09 19 Blinded By The Light - Manfred Mann's Earth Band
10 20 Torn Between Two Lovers - Mary MacGregor


January 23, 1982

01 01 Physical - Olivia Newton-John (10th and final week at #1)
02 02 Waiting For a Girl Like You - Foreigner
03 05 Centerfold - The J. Geils Band
04 04 I Can't Go For That (No Can Do) - Daryl Hall & John Oates
05 06 Harden My Heart - Quarterflash
06 07 Leather And Lace - Stevie Nicks w/Don Henley
07 08 Turn Your Love Around - George Benson
08 03 Let's Groove - Earth, Wind & Fire
09 09 Trouble - Lindsey Buckingham
10 10 The Sweetest Thing (I've Ever Known) - Juice Newton

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

January 24, 1987

01 05 At This Moment - Billy Vera & The Beaters (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 02 C'est La Vie - Robbie Nevil
03 01 Shake You Down - Gregory Abbott
04 07 Open Your Heart - Madonna
05 06 Control - Janet Jackson
06 08 Land Of Confusion - Genesis
07 12 Someday - Glass Tiger
08 13 Change Of Heart - Cyndi Lauper
09 09 Is This Love - Survivor
10 11 Victory - Kool & The Gang


January 25, 1992

01 02 All 4 Love - Color Me Badd (1st and only week at #1)
02 03 Can't Let Go - Mariah Carey
03 04 Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me - George Michael & Elton John
04 01 Black Or White - Michael Jackson
05 05 Finally - CeCe Peniston
06 06 Diamonds And Pearls - Prince & The New Power Generation
07 07 I Love Your Smile - Shanice
08 09 Smells Like Teen Spirit - Nirvana
09 15 Mysterious Ways - U2
10 31 I'm Too Sexy - Right Said Fred

23 50 To Be With You - Mr. Big


January 25, 1997

01 01 Un-Break My Heart - Toni Braxton (8th of 11 weeks at #1)
02 02 Don't Let Go (Love) - En Vogue
03 03 I Believe I Can Fly - R. Kelly
04 04 Nobody - Keith Sweat feat. Athena Cage
05 05 I Believe In You And Me - Whitney Houston
06 06 No Diggity - Blackstreet feat. Dr. Dre
07 07 Mouth - Merril Bainbridge
08 08 I'm Still In Love With You - New Edition
09 09 It's All Coming Back To Me Now - Celine Dion
10 11 If It Makes You Happy - Sheryl Crow

11 NE Wannabe - The Spice Girls


January 19, 2002

01 02 U Got It Bad - Usher (2nd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 01 How You Remind Me - Nickelback
03 03 Family Affair - Mary J. Blige
04 04 Get The Party Started - P!nk
05 06 Always On Time - Ja Rule feat. Ashanti
06 07 My Sacrifice - Creed
07 08 Whenever, Wherever - Shakira
08 05 Hero - Enrique Iglesias
09 09 A Woman's Worth - Alicia Keys
10 10 Differences - Ginuwine

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

January 20, 2007

01 01 Irreplaceable - Beyonce (6th of 10 weeks at #1)
02 04 I Wanna Love You - Akon feat. Snoop Dogg
03 02 Fergalicious - Fergie feat. will.i.am
04 03 Smack That - Akon feat. Eminem
05 10 Say It Right - Nelly Furtado
06 06 My Love - Justin Timberlake feat. T.I.
07 05 How To Save a Life - The Fray
08 07 We Fly High - Jim Jones
09 13 Welcome To The Black Parade - My Chemical Romance
10 08 It Ends Tonight - The All-American Rejects


January 21, 2012

01 02 We Found Love - Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris (9th of 10 weeks at #1)
02 01 Sexy And I Know It - LMFAO
03 04 It Will Rain - Bruno Mars
04 08 Set Fire To The Rain - Adele
05 05 Good Feeling - Flo Rida
06 03 The One That Got Away - Katy Perry
07 07 N***as In Paris - Jay-Z & Kanye West
08 NE I Won't Give Up - Jason Mraz
09 06 Party Rock Anthem - LMFAO feat. Lauren Bennett & Goonrock
10 09 Someone Like You - Adele

25 51 Turn Me On - David Guetta feat. Nicki Minaj


January 21, 2017

01 02 Bad And Boujee - Migos feat. Lil Uzi Vert (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 Black Beatles - Rae Sremmurd feat. Gucci Mane
03 04 Closer - The Chainsmokers feat. Halsey
04 03 Starboy - The Weeknd feat. Daft Punk
05 05 24k Magic - Bruno Mars
06 07 Side To Side - Ariana Grande feat. Nicki Minaj
07 11 Don't Wanna Know - Maroon 5 feat. Kendrick Lamar
08 08 Let Me Love You - DJ Snake feat. Justin Bieber
09 09 Fake Love - Drake
10 12 Bad Things - Machine Gun Kelly x Camila Cabello


January 23, 2021

01 NE driver's license - Olivia Rodrigo (1st of 8 weeks at #1)
02 01 Mood - 24kGoldn feat. Iann Dior
03 02 positions - Ariana Grande
04 03 Blinding Lights - The Weeknd
05 05 Go Crazy - Chris Brown & Young Thug
06 07 Levitating - Dua Lipa feat. DaBaby
07 04 Holy - Justin Bieber feat. Chance The Rapper
08 09 Bang! - AJR
09 NE Wasted On You - Morgan Wallen
10 23 Good Days - SZA

18 53 7 Summers - Morgan Wallen
21 46 Save Your Tears - The Weeknd

[Deleted]

Chart reveals will be a day late this week - Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. day.

[fridayteenage]

Comparing the US T10s with their UK peaks:
Beauty and the Beast 9
Let it Go 11
A Whole New World 12
Can You Feel the Love Tonight 14
Colors of the Wind 21

Bruno is currently tracking for #1 there, and #2 here. A global smash setting new highs.

[areyoureadytojump]

Jan 16, 2022 12:29:58 GMT -5 awesomecharts said:

Chart reveals will be a day late this week - Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. day.

Source?

[Lukas]

Not sure why you need a "source", it is common sense that it is delayed on that day. It was delayed on that day last year and the year prior.

If you're still skeptical, then it's also posted here. If you are still skeptical afterwards then...

[otaviohmg]

one plus one equals two

[Envoirment]

Surprised that "Sacrifice" might not even debut top 10! I thought it was going to challenge "Easy On Me" potentially.

"Easy On Me" seems like it may even keep Bruno off for a extra week or so given the gap. Looks like it'll do 10+ weeks at #1.

[areyoureadytojump]

All I wanted to know if there was confirmation for the delayed charts. Thanks for posting that tweet.

[Abbaschand]

Jan 16, 2022 12:25:30 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

January 23, 2021

01 NE driver's license - Olivia Rodrigo (1st of 8 weeks at #1)

And thus begins the Olivia Rodrigo era.

[phieaglesfan712]

This one took until late Tuesday night (Wednesday midnight) to reveal:

If history is any indication, we might be waiting a while for the Billboard 200/Hot 100.

[Choco]

Wasn't Rare part of a nailbitter close call? That contributed to the longer delay as the labels usually push for audits.

[Lukas]

Jan 17, 2022 1:51:06 GMT -5 Choco said:

Wasn't Rare part of a nailbitter close call? That contributed to the longer delay as the labels usually push for audits.

Yes it was, as it beat out Roddy Ricch by 2k units. This week's top 2 is also close. So it will probably be released on Tuesday as well.