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Post by livelightning on May 21, 2022 12:29:37 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. No 2. Yes
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 21, 2022 14:03:13 GMT -5
1a. Yes
1b. No
2. No, I still think About Damn Time is going to be the song of the summer, but keep an eye on Wait For U. That has been holding on very well, and I wouldn't be surprised if this returns to #1 and keeps ADT from running away with the song of the summer title. Harry is about to move on from As It Was, as evidenced by the promotion of Late Night Talking to radio.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2022 15:24:26 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. No 2. No
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on May 21, 2022 15:40:04 GMT -5
1a. Yes but probably pretty low 1b. No (rip she's all i wanna be </3) 2. No, it's gonna be huge throughout the summer but I think it's much more appropriate to call it Song Of The Spring since likely most of its time at #1 will have been in April and May
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Post by Limited Edition on May 22, 2022 2:04:45 GMT -5
1a Yes 1b No 1c Yes
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 24, 2022 23:52:38 GMT -5
With the release of this week's chart, we have another score update! Question 2A: Kendrick Lamar underperformed our expectations! 78% of you predicted he would earn a #1 debut during his album week. While Mr Morale was his biggest album bomb ever, he wound up debuting "N95" at #3, below both "First Class" and "As It Was." Our 4 big winners ( annoymous1 enwhy pokepikalem Devil Marlena Nylund ) each earn a whopping 45 points for correctly going against the wisdom of the crowd on Kendrick. Well done! Looking forward: "About Damn Time" is slowing down, and it looks like it may be a close call for whether it can squeeze into the Top 3 (Question 1B). Click here to see full selections & scoresScoreboard1 joshtheking 100 1 Limited Edition 100 3 otaviohmg 90 4 enwhy 85 5 annoymous1 75 5 pokepikalem 75 7 Rose Knows Nylund 65 8 85la 40 8 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 40 8 gikem 40 8 imhappy259 40 8 inverse 40 8 phieaglesfan712 40 14 Gen V.B. 30 14 kindofbiased 30 14 livelightning 30 17 Fears in the Fire 20 17 goldrush 20 17 Music Fan 20 20 jazz 10 20 wild jhit 10
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 29, 2022 9:40:29 GMT -5
Last week's predictionsQ4A: Will Tate McRae debut any new songs on the Hot 100 next week (6/11 chart)?Responses: 10/10 (100%) say "Yes" Q4B: Will Tate McRae have a top 10 hit this year? (6/11-12/31 charts - credited features DO count)Responses: 0/10 (0%) say "Yes" Q4C: Will Harry Styles' "As It Was" be Billboard's 2022 "Song of the Summer"?Responses: 2/10 (20%) say "Yes" I have to say, looking like we may have a few upsets. Look like all 10 predictors could be wrong on 4A...Tate's first 2 days on Spotify have been pretty lackluster. Meanwhile, As It Was still has some pretty serious momentum heading into the summer. Click here to see full selections & scoresThis week's questions (Deadline Thursday, June 2)Question 1a: Post Malone
I'm excited to see what people think for this one. Post Malone has had a fascinating career trajectory. In 2015, he made his Hot 100 debut with "White Iverson" (#15 peak). Then, from 2017-2020, he went on an incredible run: Congratulations (#8), Rockstar (#1), Psycho (#1), Better Now (#3), Sunflower (#1), Wow (#2), Goodbyes (#3), Circles (#1), Take What You Want (#8). All of a sudden, he's really struggling. Of his last 3 singles, only 1 has scratched the top 10 - One Right Now (#6). At a time when his old sound is falling out of favor, can he adapt to stay fresh? Or will Post Malone forever be associated with a very specific moment in time? We may not be able to answer that right away, but we'll have a clue after his new album " Twelve Carat Toothache" drops next week. So, Will Post Malone have any songs in the top 10 next week (6/18 chart)?Question 1b: Post Malone BonusIt's time for the best kind of predictions...totally baseless guesses! So far, "One Right Now" is Post's top-performing song off the new album, with a #6 peak. Will any album song manage to out-peak this? FULL TRACKLIST: Reputation - Cooped Up (ft. Roddy Rich) - Lemon Tree - Wrapped Around Your Finger - I Like You (ft. Doja Cat) - I Cannot Be (ft. Gunna) - Insane - Love/Hate Letter to Alcohol (ft. Fleet Foxes) - Wasting Angels (ft. The Kid LAROI) - Euthanasia - When I'm Alone - Waiting For A Miracle - One Right Now Which song off the new Post Malone album will have the highest peak by the end of the summer (9/17 chart)?**To clarify, if no song out-performs One Right Now, then ORN would count as the winner, even though it's already peaked. Question 2: Country PeaksCountry Music typically dominates the lower rungs of the chart, occasionally making a splash with a high debut. Last Year, "Fancy Like" blew up and spent some time in the top 10. This year, Morgan Wallen seems to be setting up for his biggest comeback yet. Just this month, "Don't Think Jesus" (#7), "Thought You Should Know" (#12), and "You Proof" (#6) have made a lot of noise during a very busy chart period. I also feel obligated to point out, Taylor Swift still has "Speak Now (Taylor's Version) waiting to be released, which is considered country. The long-term question for this week, Will a country song (eligible for "Hot Country Songs") peak in the top 3 this year (Through the 12/31 chart)?
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 29, 2022 10:30:59 GMT -5
1a. No- I think there is a chance that at least one song on this album goes viral, but honestly.... I really see this being a flop era for Post. At the very least, I don't think he'll impact the top 10 even if he does have an album bomb. 1b. One Right Now lol 2. No- There is no way of adequately guessing this but I'm gonna go with no- I don't see us getting another Fancy Like this year
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Post by livelightning on May 29, 2022 10:37:40 GMT -5
1a. Yes - gotta get at least 1 b. ONR 2. No
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 29, 2022 11:02:17 GMT -5
1a. No. I think even Post's fans are aware that this is kind of a "flop era" for him. Maybe he will get 2-3 top 20 debuts, but if they don't connect upon release, he won't get another top 10.
1b. One Right Now. Even if another song manages to make the top 10, I don't think it will exceed the first single's peak.
2. No. I was initially thinking that You Proof would get an immediate pop radio push, but as it turns out they're rather reticent to push that song. Its streaming will definitely peak before any radio will come, and unless he or Luke Combs has another song coming that will immediately smash on a weak chart, I don't see any country songs reaching a top 3 peak this year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2022 11:14:48 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. I Like You 2. No
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 29, 2022 12:47:16 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. I Like You. 2. No. If no Country song managed to be in the top 3 while the Hot 100 was weak earlier this year, I don't see it happening.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on May 29, 2022 13:11:08 GMT -5
1a. Yes but probably one or two at most, it won't be like the album bombs we've had over the past month 1b. will play it safe and say ORN 2. Could see a Morgan Wallen or Luke Combs song going viral and getting a big top 3 debut, but barring that no
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khan
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Post by khan on May 29, 2022 14:01:28 GMT -5
I should start participating in these, they seem fun!
1a. Yes - I know that everything post-One Right Now has been flopping for Post Malone, including One Right Now. But idk dude, have you SEEN the album number's he's pulled off for the last three? He's clearly a huge, huge albums artist, and even if I doubt any staying power, I think that's enough for at least one more top ten debut from the man when it comes coupled with the album's release. 1b. One Right Now - That said, I don't think he'll do that well.
2. Yes - Call me optimistic, but Morgan Wallen has been getting closer and closer there throughout the entire year, each time just being really unlucky with and/or not caring about the timing of Christmas and album bombs. I mean after a certain point, there has to eventually be a week where nothing stops him, right? Combine that with recent country top three-peaker Luke Combs releasing an album soon, I just think there's a lot of opportunities in the next seven months for it to happen.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 1, 2022 15:26:42 GMT -5
1a. No, competition is too strong now.
1b. One Right Now
2. No, if it was going to happen, it would have been Donโt Think Jesus.
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Post by Limited Edition on Jun 2, 2022 6:00:07 GMT -5
1a. NO 1b. ORN 2. NO
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Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Jun 2, 2022 8:15:56 GMT -5
1A: Yes, he should get atleast one Top 10
1B: I'm kinda torn between One Right Now being the highest peaking song off Twelve Carat Toothache or I Like You having a Sunflower-like slow build to Top 3. I'll go with I Like You being the highest peaking song off Twelve Carat Toothache, like there's no way that it underperforms (I know ORN did underperform especially with the thought of Post and Weeknd collabing together, but a #6 peak and a solid number of weeks at the Hot 100 is still respectable)
2. No, I don't think any of the new Morgan Wallen songs will get further than their peaks and Walker Hayes' "AA" is a weak follow-up to "Fancy Like", which peaked #3
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on Jun 2, 2022 19:35:38 GMT -5
1a. no 1b. One Right Now 2. no
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jun 2, 2022 21:46:06 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. ORN 2. Yes. Almost impossible to predict, but I'm hedging towards yes, because Morgan can continue to do some major damage, especially if he releases his next album before the end of the year, and the possibility of Taylor of course.
As a side question, is it likely that her next re-release will be Speak Now, and where has that been indicated? If anything, it seems like she's gearing up for 1989, hence the already released re-recordings of This Love and Wildest Dreams.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 2, 2022 22:25:28 GMT -5
1 - Yes I think he will...top 10 cut off should be around ~130 pts next week, it should only take ~15M streams and a little bit of radio to squeeze in.
2 - "I LIke You" (with Doja) - I'll take a gamble here. Doja can do no wrong on pop radio right now, and it looks like this may be the lead single. From the snippets he previewed last month on insta, "Wrapped Around Your Finger" seemed like the best song though, so that would've been my second choice.
3 - Yes, when Morgan Wallen releases his album (which I have to guess is coming at this point), I think he will have a #1. Maybe even a multiweek #1. His Sales are huge on seemingly every song, and he has a consistently solid streaming base. All assuming his label pushes one single pretty hard.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 2, 2022 22:32:57 GMT -5
With the release of this week's chart, we have another score update! Question 4A: Will Harry Styles achieve his first proper "album bomb" with 3+ songs in the top 10 on the 6/4 chart? This one was our first 50/50 split, as half of the ten predictors thought Styles' album bomb would land 3 top 10s. In the end, he had 4 - at numbers 1, 4, 8, and 9. Our predictors who guessed correctly each earn 20 points! Well done: 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy @imhappy259 Music Fan Click here to see full selections & scoresScoreboard1 enwhy 105 2 joshtheking 100 2 Limited Edition 100 4 otaviohmg 90 5 annoymous1 75 5 pokepikalem 75 7 Rose Knows Nylund 65 8 85la 60 8 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 60 8 imhappy259 60 11 gikem 40 11 inverse 40 11 phieaglesfan712 40 11 Music Fan 40 15 Gen V.B. 30 15 kindofbiased 30 15 livelightning 30 18 Fears in the Fire 20 18 goldrush 20 20 jazz 10 20 wild jhit 10 As a side question, is it likely that her next re-release will be Speak Now, and where has that been indicated? If anything, it seems like she's gearing up for 1989, hence the already released re-recordings of This Love and Wildest Dreams. From what I've seen, she's hinted at 1989, but nothing definitive yet. Wildest Dreams was because it was going viral on TikTok...you may have a point with This Love though. I could still see Speak Now though, maybe if she wanted to space it out from Red a little bit.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 4, 2022 9:21:44 GMT -5
Last week's predictionsQ5A: Will Post Malone have any songs in the top 10 next week (6/18 chart)?Responses: 8/13 (62%) say "Yes" Q5B: Which song off the new Post Malone album will have the highest peak by the end of the summer (9/17 chart)?Responses: 9/13 (69%) say "One Right Now", 4/13 (31%) say "I Like You (ft. Doja Cat)" As a reminder, "I Like You" needs to hit the Top 5 to out-peak "One Right Now" Will a country song (eligible for "Hot Country Songs") peak in the top 3 this year (Through the 12/31 chart)?Responses: 3/13 (23%) say "Yes" We may have a close race already on the 2 Post Malone questions! "I Like You" is Post's big single right now, and it opened with 2M on Spotify & Top 5 on AM. As the albums bombs fall off the chart, the Top 10 is wide open for some new songs... Click here to see full selections & scoresThis week's questions (Deadline Thursday, June 9)Question 1: BTS #1I don't have to remind anyone how dominant BTS has been on the charts these past couple years. As their US fanbase has grown, and as they've become more organized with Sales campaigns, the ARMY has discovered the cheat code to top the chart. Since their first Top 10 in 2018, they've had Fake Love (#10), Boy with Luv (8), On (4), Dynamite (1), Life Goes On (1), Butter (1), Permission to Dance (1), My Universe (1). Then came Billboard's announcement last winter - song sales are no longer 4 per person. ARMY will have to sell 4x as much to hit #1, as sales are now 1 per person (per version). BTS has a compilation album called "Proof" releasing on June 10th, but it's looking like they will be pushing a new song "Yet To Come" off of it. This will be an interesting test - can ARMY still pull off a #1 with the new rules? So, Will BTS debut at #1 next week (6/25 chart)?Question 2: BTS Sales BonusHow much can BTS sell with new rules? Here is how they've faired in the past: On (86k), Dynamite (265k), Life Goes On (129k), Butter (228k), Permission To Dance (140k), My Universe (93k) Since the rule change, the biggest-selling song was Nicki/Lil Baby's "Do We Have a Problem?" which sold 48k. How many sales (to the nearest 10k please, so 80k, 90k,...) will BTS's top-selling song achieve next week (6/25 chart)?Question 3: Old Song JusticeWhat a week, right? Stranger Things launched an '80s critically-acclaimed Kate Bush song into the top 10! I though about asking a "Running Up That Hill" question, but in all likelihood it will be already on the way down by the end of the week. I love this idea though, that old songs can have huge moments now, whether it be through a show, movie, or TikTok trend. No doubt, labels are paying a lot of attention. We very well may see a trend of movies heavily featuring older songs fishing for a revival moment. So far this year, we've had Nirvana and Kate Bush - who's next? The long-term question for this week, Will another song originally released prior to 2020 peak in the top 40 this year (Through the 12/31 chart)?**"Running Up That Hill" will not count for this question, as it's already locked for the Top 40 next week. Holiday songs also do not count, like "AIWFCIY" & "Thriller"
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jun 4, 2022 10:12:10 GMT -5
1. No- It's hard to tell, but I've heard rumours that this new single isn't exactly as "pop-y" than the other lead singles? Correct me if I'm wrong about that. And I think the rule change will effect them to go all the way to #1. 2. Gonna say 60K 3. Yes- I fully expect this to become a regular thing with charts given the era of music consumption we're currently living in
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 4, 2022 10:39:15 GMT -5
1. I'm going to say yes. I would think the BTS Army will pull it off for a week by virtue of their first week effort ("campaign"). After that, I would expect the song to fall the face of the Earth quickly similar to how Life Goes On did. 2. 75k 3. Yes. But I'm going to guess it isn't due to old music revival, but because an artist passed away and had a song re-chart.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Jun 4, 2022 14:47:15 GMT -5
1. I think it will, but not by as wide of a margin as they were debuting in 2020 and 2021, and I really doubt it'll stick around 2. 60k 3. Yes, I think movies and TV shows causing old songs to go viral will become a common thing, as well as TikTok reviving old songs as well
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 5, 2022 8:02:35 GMT -5
1. Yes - I think they'll get an easy first week #1, and fall off very quickly after
2. 110k - They have a huge fanbase, and we saw that under the old rules they did ~250k week 1. I'm guessing that just under half of those were unique, but we'll see.
3. No - I think we'll see more songs do this in the near future, but no more this year. I predict some label will try to recreate the RUTH moment with a soundtrack, but it fails to catch on.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 5, 2022 16:51:24 GMT -5
1. No, weโve had songs from sales-heavy artists, like Nicki Minaj, Morgan Wallen, and Megan Thee Stallion, when the charts werenโt as strong as it is now, and none of them made it to #1. Itโs hard for me to believe that BTS is going to beat strong songs like As It Was, First Class, Wait For U, About Damn Time, and even Running Up That Hill.
2. 60k (DWHAP has the top sales week this year at ~50k. I donโt see any BTS doing much more than this under the new rules.)
3. Yes
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khan
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Post by khan on Jun 6, 2022 18:39:17 GMT -5
1. No - Maybe I'm just trying to manifest it, but people who know a lot more about the charts than me have been saying that the hits to sales points in 2022 have been really bad. Also some anecdotal evidence but I haven't seen the hype buildup that their label did for Dynamite and Butter.
2. 80k - Kinda spitballing since I don't know a lot about sales. I know they'll definitely have the biggest sales week of the year so far, and this seems like a good number to achieve that with.
3. Yes - If the cutoff for this question was any higher than top 40, I'd say no, but this seems very doable. So many songs are constantly going viral, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. Remember when that old Nirvana song and that old Kevin Gates song debuted on the Hot 100 on the same exact week earlier this year? The success of Running Up That Hill is still rare for sure, we haven't seen anything close since Dreams last year, but something more middling like Something in the Way's level of success feels inevitable.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2022 19:04:29 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. 90k 3. Yes
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jun 9, 2022 18:01:56 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. 100k 3. Yes. A song released before 2020 reaching the top 40 before the end of the year is a fairly easy threshold to pass, especially since older songs are experiencing a bit of a resurgence now.
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