annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on Jun 9, 2022 21:10:22 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. 70k 3. Yes
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Post by Limited Edition on Jun 10, 2022 0:50:50 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. 100K 3. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 12, 2022 11:58:45 GMT -5
We have another score update! Question 4A: Will Tate McRae debut any new songs on the Hot 100 next week (6/11 chart)? Tate did not debut any new songs. While she was close - "Don't Come Back" charted at #15 on Bubbling Under - her album came and went without making a huge splash. For the first time, we have no winners. All 10 predictors guessed incorrectly that she would have a debuting song. Looking ahead: - "About Damn Time" is still just outside the Top 3, however it sits behind 3 huge songs.
- Post Malone has 2 songs which are on the verge of Top 10 next week - will either of them make it?
- Meanwhile, Post and Doja's "I Like You" is already racing up the radio charts. Time will tell if it can hit the Top 5 and out-peak "One Right Now"
Click here to see full selections & scoresScoreboard1 enwhy 135 2 joshtheking 130 2 Limited Edition 130 4 annoymous1 95 5 otaviohmg 90 5 85la 90 5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 90 5 imhappy259 90 9 pokepikalem 75 10 phieaglesfan712 70
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 12, 2022 11:58:59 GMT -5
Last week's predictionsQ6A: Will BTS debut at #1 next week (6/25 chart)?Responses: 7/10 (70%) say "Yes" Q6B: How many sales (to the nearest 10k please, so 80k, 90k,...) will BTS's top-selling song achieve next week (6/25 chart)?Responses: 3 - 60k, 1 - 70k, 2 - 80k, 1 - 90k, 2 - 100k, 1 - 110k For this, the closest to the actual number of Sales will be the winner. Q6C: Will another song originally released prior to 2020 peak in the top 40 this year (Through the 12/31 chart)?Responses: 8/10 (80%) say "Yes" Click here to see full selections & scoresThis week's questions (Deadline Thursday, June 16)Since next week looks pretty dead in terms of new releases, I thought I would use this week to ask some questions about the summer ahead. Question 1: Song of the SummerLast week, we began counting toward the Song of the Summer. The last few years we've had a rather interesting set of songs top this chart: "Butter", "Rockstar", "Old Town Road", and "In My Feelings". This year, we have a number of possible competitors. The frontrunner, "As It Was", has already logged a week at #1, however is starting to decline. "First Class" is still massive and is still growing on radio. At the next tier, "WAIT FOR U" and "About Damn Time" are looking steady for now, and either could easily beat the competition with some steady numbers. And there's always the chance for a wildcard - something big taking over the charts in the next couple of weeks. While this is possible, I'm going to ask about already-released songs...so even if something else gets released, it wouldn't count for or against anyone. Which already-released song will place the highest on Billboard's Songs Of The Summer chart (6/11-9/10 chart; 14 weeks)?Question 2: Summer TurnoverIn the past, we've seen some years with lots of turnover in the top spot. This...has not been one of those years. Only 1 song so far ("WAIT FOR U") has been a single-week #1. We've also already seen several 5+ week #1's. Will this last through the summer, or will we start to see more turnover? Will there be at least 5 different #1 songs through the 2022 summer season (6/25-9/17 chart; 13 weeks)?Question 3: Summer Rap HitsRap music had a tough year on the charts in 2021. Over the summer, "Way 2 Sexy" was the only song to hit #1, for just a week. If you look at the past few years, it's clear Summer 2021 was a bit of an outlier: 2021 - 1 week (Way 2 Sexy) 2020 - 9 weeks (Trollz, Rockstar, WAP) 2019 - 12 weeks (Old Town Road, Truth Hurts) 2018 - 13 weeks (Nice For What, Sad!, I Like It, In My Feelings) 2017 - 0 weeks (the summer of Despacito) Can rap make a comeback this summer? It's looking like there will likely be releases by YoungBoy NBA, Lil Baby, Lizzo, and Logic. There's also some chance we get new releases from Meghan, Drake, Kanye, and Cardi B. Finally, "First Class" and "WAIT FOR U" are both huge right now, and could absolutely earn a few weeks at #1. Will rap songs (eligible for the Hot Rap Songs chart) spend more than 5 weeks combined at #1 during the 2022 summer season (6/25-9/17 chart; 13 weeks)?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 12, 2022 13:00:01 GMT -5
1. About Damn Time
2. No, I think we end up with 3 or 4. We already have As It Was, and I see Running Up That Hill and About Damn Time getting there, but I can't see both First Class and Wait For U both returning to #1.
3. No, I see As It Was, Running Up That Hill, and About Damn Time having a stranglehold on the #1 spot this summer. No way do we get 6 weeks at #1 combined from outside of these songs this summer.
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Post by livelightning on Jun 12, 2022 13:29:43 GMT -5
1. As it was 2. No 3. No
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Jun 12, 2022 13:42:31 GMT -5
1. First class 2. Yes 3. Yes
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khan
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Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,025
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Post by khan on Jun 13, 2022 19:49:57 GMT -5
1. As It Was - This is just a monster on every format, and the album boost came at just the right time. I suppose technically it has peaked but the fall is so slow. It'll fall off the #1 spot permanently soon, but I do think it'll stay in the top ten all summer, which would give it enough points for the Song of the Summer title, I imagine.
2. No - Thirteen weeks for five songs is just not enough time. 2020 was an outlier there with how crazy summer was. I can see there being some #1 debut from some big artist, but there's not enough announced rn to fill up that number.
3. No - I'm not confident on this because it takes just one viral moment or one big artist releasing something that resonates with people and it could totally happen. I'm just going off of what we have right now, that all the big hits that are vying for the #1 spot aren't rap.
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mms82
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...
Joined: January 2019
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Post by mms82 on Jun 14, 2022 4:58:06 GMT -5
1: A song that has yet to debut that’ll come out in the next few weeks (or blow up in the next few weeks and isn’t charting in the top 40 right now) (misread the question, highest placing song that’s charting will be As It Was) 2: No 3: Yes
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Post by Limited Edition on Jun 14, 2022 5:08:35 GMT -5
Q1: As It Was Q2: No Q3: No
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atg
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Post by atg on Jun 14, 2022 9:26:18 GMT -5
1. As It Was - although Wait For U feels like the true hit of the summer but statistically it is AIW 2. No 3. No
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joshtheking
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Posts: 1,392
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Post by joshtheking on Jun 14, 2022 9:37:17 GMT -5
1. First Class- The radio isn't slowing down for this one, I think it'll end up higher than As It Was soon 2. Yes- Most people are saying no so I'll say yes lol 3. No- Doubtful; Our huge rap songs nowadays don't tend to impact the top of the chart, and when they do it's usually short lived
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 14, 2022 9:38:21 GMT -5
1: A song that has yet to debut that’ll come out in the next few weeks (or blow up in the next few weeks and isn’t charting in the top 40 right now) (misread the question, highest placing song that’s charting will be As It Was) 2: No 3: Yes Based on these responses, I’m guessing the song you think will blow up in the next few weeks is a rap song. If it is, by which rapper?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2022 9:49:12 GMT -5
1. About Damn Time 2. No 3. No
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 14, 2022 13:10:49 GMT -5
1. As It Was 2. No 3. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 14, 2022 16:27:37 GMT -5
1. Glimpse of Us by Joji - we really need more hot takes in this thread. I mean, it's not going to happen, but imagine if it does?
2. Yes - It's likely we'll see As It Was, First Class, and About Damn Time each have at least a week in the spotlight. It's not too hard to imagine 2 other songs hitting #1 toward the end of the summer either, so I'm going to go with yes.
3. No - Streaming has been SO weak all year, so our top 10 has been pretty radio-driven. With radio being so reluctant to play rap, I don't see it happening. Counterpoint: Drake could 100% drop a surprise EP or something and blow up the charts again, so it's very possible. Edit: So Drake is coming to shake things up! I'll change my vote to YES
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annoymous1
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Posts: 7,090
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Post by annoymous1 on Jun 16, 2022 8:19:14 GMT -5
1. As It Was 2. Yes 3. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 18, 2022 11:29:04 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, June 23)
One of the disadvantages of this format is I can't do questions about surprise drops, since I need to know a week in advance. Still, some of the more interesting questions about Drake's new album will revolve around his 2nd week performance - how fast will he drop?
Question 1: Drake Week 2 Drake's last project, Certified Lover Boy, smashed most debut records with 9 top 10 Hot 100 songs, 12 top 14, etc... However, he then saw a decent drop for most of the album - 3 top 10s and 5 top 20s in his second week. (This is all by Drake's standards of course - for anyone else, this second week would be an incredible first week.) But now, Drake's treaded a little out of his - and his fans' - comfort zone. Will Drake's dance album have any longevity? Or will the songs plummet in their second week? What position will the top song be off Drake's "Honestly, Nevermind" in its second week? (7/9 chart)?
Question 2: Drake Week 2 Bonus How many songs from Drake's "Honestly, Nevermind" will be in on the top 20 in its second week (7/9 chart)?
Question 3: Conan Gray Conan Gray is an interesting artist. He very much has embodied the Gen Z bedroom pop style so far, and often mentions Taylor Swift as a major influence of his. He had one song "Heather" which peaked at #46 in 2020, but otherwise has not made the Hot 100 - despite some positive attention in the pop sphere. A lot of pop fans have been suggesting Conan for years now as a potential breakthrough star. And lately, he's been seen a lot with his good friend, fellow popstar Olivia Rodrigo. He's got a new album, "Superache," dropping on Friday. Can he get a hit this time around? (or an Olivia collab, that would work too). Will Conan Gray debut a song on the Hot 100 this year (By 12/31 chart)?
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 18, 2022 11:29:18 GMT -5
We have another score update! Question 5A: Will Post Malone have any songs in the top 10 next week (6/18 chart)? Post Malone DID pull off a top 10 debut! I Like You (with Doja Cat) debuted at #9. Close call! 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 khan kindofbiased livelightning (62%, 8 of 13) all correctly predicted this, and each earn 16 pts. Looking ahead: - "About Damn Time" is still just outside the Top 3, however it sits behind 3 huge songs.
- BTS looks unlikely to debut at #1 (Predicted by 70%) and their sales look to be on the lower end of the prediction range
- Post and Doja's "I Like You" is already top 20 on pop radio. If the streaming can hold up, it may be able to go Top 5 and out-peak "One Right Now" (Predicted by 31%)
- An older question asked about how many 2010s Top Artists would hit #1 this year. Drake's new album will probably bring the count up to 1. At the same time, Post's chances of a #1 don't look great right now.
Click here to see full selections & scoresScoreboard1 enwhy 161 2 joshtheking 140 2 Limited Edition 140 4 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 116 4 imhappy259 116 6 85la 106 7 annoymous1 105 8 otaviohmg 90 9 phieaglesfan712 80 10 kindofbiased 76 10 livelightning 76 12 pokepikalem 75 13 Rose Knows Nylund 65 14 gikem 60 15 Gen V.B. 56
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kindofbiased
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Rough surf on the coast
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Post by kindofbiased on Jun 18, 2022 11:43:55 GMT -5
1. I really like Honestly Nevermind but sadly I don't see most of its tracks having much longevity :/ I'm gonna guess even though Falling Back will almost definitely get the biggest debut this week, Jimmy Cooks will end up having a Knife Talk type run and be the highest song from the album next week
2. Hard to say but I'll say he has 5 songs in the top 20 overall 2nd week, including songs in the top 10
3. Conan Gray should easily be able to chart something on the hot 100 this year, especially if he has an Olivia Rodrigo collab
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jun 18, 2022 11:55:15 GMT -5
1. I really like Honestly Nevermind but sadly I don't see most of its tracks having much longevity :/ I'm gonna guess even though Falling Back will almost definitely get the biggest debut this week, Jimmy Cooks will end up having a Knife Talk type run and be the highest song from the album next week 2. Hard to say but I'll say he has 5 songs in the top 20 overall 2nd week, including songs in the top 10 3. Conan Gray should easily be able to chart something on the hot 100 this year, especially if he has an Olivia Rodrigo collab Apologies, I meant for question 1 to ask about what position his top song will be (so like 1, 2, 3, etc.) in week 2. Edited the question for clarity! my predictions: 1. #3 - I don't see Drake holding onto the top spot for longer than a week 2. 3 songs - There are not a lot of memorable songs on here. I doubt many of these will stick around. 3. No - I think if Conan was gonna blow up it would've been when we had a new TikTok artist every week. Hope I'm wrong though!
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kindofbiased
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Rough surf on the coast
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Post by kindofbiased on Jun 18, 2022 12:05:02 GMT -5
1. I really like Honestly Nevermind but sadly I don't see most of its tracks having much longevity :/ I'm gonna guess even though Falling Back will almost definitely get the biggest debut this week, Jimmy Cooks will end up having a Knife Talk type run and be the highest song from the album next week 2. Hard to say but I'll say he has 5 songs in the top 20 overall 2nd week, including songs in the top 10 3. Conan Gray should easily be able to chart something on the hot 100 this year, especially if he has an Olivia Rodrigo collab Apologies, I meant for question 1 to ask about what position his top song will be (so like 1, 2, 3, etc.) in week 2. Edited the question for clarity! my predictions: 1. #3 - I don't see Drake holding onto the top spot for longer than a week 2. 3 songs - There are not a lot of memorable songs on here. I doubt many of these will stick around. 3. No - I think if Conan was gonna blow up it would've been when we had a new TikTok artist every week. Hope I'm wrong though! oh oops! Yeah I'll also say #3 but with the added bonus that I think it'll be Jimmy Cooks, even though I think Falling Back will be the #1 debut
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jun 18, 2022 12:25:57 GMT -5
1. #9- I think he'll get the #1 debut this week and pretty decent presence all around but I'm banking on the second week being a pretty steep drop 2. 2- What I said above basically 3. Yes- His album is either gonna do really well and be a huge breakout for him, or it's gonna be another Tate McRae situation. Seeing what's happening with Joji, I think Conan Gray could be in for some success based on his track record so far so that's why I'm going with yes.
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Post by After Minutes on Jun 19, 2022 4:28:43 GMT -5
1. Jimmy Cooks will probably debut at #1 / in the top 5 and it'll be the sole song off the album to hold in the top 10 in the second week
2. He'll probably have like 3-4 tracks in that area, Falling Back, Jimmy Cooks, Sticky and maybe Texts Go Green
3. He will have another song on the charts but it won't be massive. Maybe it could perform like Numb Little Bug, but I don't see the Joji comparison, since his strength is that he has a mostly male audience, while still being popular with women
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jun 19, 2022 20:27:06 GMT -5
1. #8 2. 3 3. Yes
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atg
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Post by atg on Jun 19, 2022 21:39:29 GMT -5
1. I think Falling Back would be the top song because of the video but Jimmy Cooks is going to end up being the longevity hit. Just like the What’s Next/Wants and Needs situation. I’ll probably say the former is going to debut at #2 or 3.
2. I’m probably going to say probably 3 because the overall streaming isn’t there but AM could be the saving grace. Falling Back, Jimmy Cooks and Texts Go Green are most likely the bigger songs from the album to stick around, but if Wait For U which, is of course also a Drake song, hits the top spot again by the end of this week then it could be hard to tell which other songs will stick around as well.
3. Conan Gray does see some success and he could definitely debut a song into the hot 100. As for it being a hit, i don’t think he has the audience for that (just yet), but if he does collab with Olivia then for sure we can probably see a hit out of it as she still has the superstar flame in her right now.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 20, 2022 10:13:01 GMT -5
1. #6 2. 4 3. No
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Post by livelightning on Jun 20, 2022 15:23:20 GMT -5
1. #11 2. 2 3. Yes
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2022 17:44:26 GMT -5
1. #8 2. 4 3. Yes
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Music Fan
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Post by Music Fan on Jun 20, 2022 18:21:18 GMT -5
1. #6 2. 4 songs 5. Yes.
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