𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,739
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 19, 2022 22:13:26 GMT -5
1. 4 2. Yes 3. You Proof
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
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Post by enwhy on Oct 20, 2022 22:53:56 GMT -5
1. 2 - I listened to the leaks and have read some of the discussion around it...I honestly think this is a step down from folklore/evermore and that will probably reflect in the first week numbers. And Lover - which is probably the best comparison point - had meh streaming numbers considering Taylor's starpower. Almost all of Lover's songs debuted around 1-2M Spotify streams. 2. No - See above...plus no immediate pop standout imo. 3. Something In The Orange - Surprised this is so one-sided. While the radio situation is still sketchy, everything outside the top 5 is very tight right now. SITO is projected to be 20ish points or 10-15% off of Top 5 this week. If it can keep up the gains from the past few weeks, I like SITO's chances.
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enwhy
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Posts: 641
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Post by enwhy on Oct 23, 2022 15:34:52 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Question 23A: Will 2+ songs off Charlie chart on the Hot 100 on the 10/22 chart?
"Left and Right" was Charlie's lone Hot 100 entry on the 10/22 chart. His next best-performer was "Loser", which placed #21 on the Bubbling Under. Don't worry Charlie, it's only a matter of time until Billboard starts counting TikTok sounds as 1% of a stream! In the meantime, enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking Limited Edition M5AGTS rainie and renfield75 (9/11, 82%) each earn 12 points for correctly predicting that Puth wouldn't have multiple charting songs. Question 22B: Will any songs off Kid Cudi's "Entergalactic" debut on the 10/15 chart?No songs off "Entergalactic" charted on the Hot 100 OR the Bubbling Under. Hey, his Netflix show seems to be doing well though. I will gladly take all 120 points for this one! (the other 11 predictors all said Cudi would chart) Final result: 1/12 (8%) correct. Question 15C: Will any other songs (not Break My Soul) from Beyonce's "Renaissance" spend 10+ weeks on the chart this year?Technically it won't be official until Tuesday, but "Cuff It" will chart for the 10th time this week! A surprisingly successful album cycle from Beyonce, who continues to see chart success 25 years into her career. 85la @imhappy259 kcdawg13 khan M5AGTS mms82 and phieaglesfan712 (7/10, 70%) earn 14 points apiece for predicting correctly! Question 11B: Will another Lizzo song (not About Damn Time) spend 10+ weeks on the chart this year?Again it's not official until Tuesday, but "2 Be Loved" will chart for the 10th time this week! The outcome here is a bit more mixed, as Lizzo was very reliant on radio-backing to keep this one going - right now it's hovering outside the Top 50. Possibly a bad sign for her future projects that she's yet to prove she can consistently succeed without TikTok virality. 85la big2000 enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 jasper0102 joshtheking Limited Edition M5AGTS and renfield75 (9/16, 56%) earn 18 points apiece for predicting correctly! Question 9B: Can Glass Animal's "Heat Waves" beat the all-time longevity record by charting for 91 total weeks?Back in June, I asked whether Heat Waves would break the 90 week record. Last week, it charted for its 91st week. Coincidentally, it's likely to fall off the chart in its 92nd week due to Lil Baby's album. Baby Yoda Hot100Fan Fears in the Fire 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 inverse joshtheking kindofbiased Limited Edition livelightning and phieaglesfan712 (10/13, 77%) correctly guessed this, and each earn 13 points. Looking ahead:- Taylor Swift's album is the big news - it's more likely than not that Midnights will be the biggest album bomb in Hot 100 history. She has a chance to sweep the top 10. With that said, let's review the predictions:
- 20% said one of her songs would outsell Super Freaky Girl (89k) - 6 was the highest guess for Top 10 debuts (average was 4.4) - 36% said she would out-stream First Class's debut week (54.6M) - Way back in May, 80% of us guessed that at least 2 of the Top 10 2010s artists would have #1s through the end of the year. While Post Malone let us down, it looks like Drake and Taylor (the top 2!) will come through.
- "Unholy" is seeing consistent growth, and will likely rise to #1 this week (50% predicted <5 weeks in the top 10; 56% predicted it would reach #1)
- Morgan Wallen's "You Proof" continues to hover in the Top 10 (77% predicted no country music in the Top 3 this year)
- A few weeks back, I asked how many new Top 10s we'd get this fall. 82% of us guessed 13 or fewer. We may actually double that number by the holidays (Taylor followed by Drake/21 Savage)
Click here to see full selections & scoresStop the count! I take the lead over from joshtheking thanks to Kid Cudi. Otherwise, @imhappy259 , M5AGTS , and 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 each make modest gains. Scoreboard1 (▲2) enwhy 770 2 (▼1) joshtheking 690 3 (▼1) 85la 666 4 (=) Limited Edition 620 5 (=) jasper0102 578 6 (=) phieaglesfan712 536 7 (▲1) imhappy259 529 8 (▼1) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 523 9 (=) kindofbiased 349 10 (=) khan 326 11 (▲2) M5AGTS 308 12 (▼1) renfield75 301 13 (▲1) Gen V.B. 290 14 (▼2) livelightning 258 15 (=) big2000 230
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enwhy
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Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
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Post by enwhy on Oct 23, 2022 15:35:18 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, October 28)Q1: Drake vs TaylorFinally a good chart battle! Shame it can't be the same week for some real drama, but we'll have to settle for this game. Taylor Swift's Midnights is putting up absurd streaming numbers in its first couple of days. Meanwhile, Drake has announced Her Loss, a collab project with 21 Savage, to be released next week. This one is simple - who will have the most streamed song? It's also worth appreciating the extent to which these two have ruled streaming over the last few years (interestingly, this also shows us the decline of streaming numbers): 42.4M - Drake - Jimmy Cooks (June 2022) 54.4M - Taylor - All Too Well 10min (Nov 2021) 67.3M - Drake - Way 2 Sexy (Sep 2021) 49.1M - Drake - What's Next (Mar 2021) 30.0M - Taylor - Willow (Dec 2020) 34.0M - Taylor - Cardigan (Aug 2020) 50.7M - Taylor - ME! (May 2019) 116.2M - Drake - In My Feelings (Jul 2018) 101.7M - Drake - God's Plan (Mar 2018) 84.5M - Taylor - Look What You Made Me Do (Sep 2017) Who will have more 1st-week streams on their top song: Drake/21 Savage (11/12 chart) or Taylor? (11/5 chart)Q2: Top 10 SweepDrake has proven his ability to dominate the charts like no one else. Last year, Drake's album bomb filled 9/10 of the top 10. And earlier this year, he proved that there's still a huge appetite for his usual style - "Jimmy Cooks" ft. 21 Savage debuted at #1. Now, the duo have a surprise album coming out. The chart environment right now is weaker than ever, but Taylor's songs could still put up serious second-week numbers. Will Drake chart 10 songs in the top 10 during the release week of "Her Loss"?Q3 RihannaThis year is very quickly taking a turn from boring to insanely eventful in the final months. Rihanna is rumored to have 2 songs in the new Black Panther soundtrack. She's registered a new song called "Private Loving." She's promised new music "soon" and oh yeah, she's doing the Superbowl in a few months. Her only release since 2017 has been a random collab with Canadian songwriter (and frequent collaborator) PartyNextDoor, which charted at #23 off of Rihanna's name alone. Is Rihanna still big enough to debut #1? Does she even have new music coming, or is this another elaborate Fenty promo? Will Rihanna chart at #1 this year? (By 12/31 chart)
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joshtheking
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Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,392
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Post by joshtheking on Oct 23, 2022 15:42:49 GMT -5
1. Taylor- This is gonna be extremely close though 2. No- I see him getting 6-8 3. Yes- AND I'm switching back again since Drake is not dropping the same week now lol
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enwhy
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Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
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Post by enwhy on Oct 23, 2022 15:44:11 GMT -5
1. Drake - Drake's streaming numbers have always been second-to-none, and this album will be no different. If Her Loss is a return to form, I could see him posting numbers we haven't seen since Old Town Road.
2. Yes - I think Drake sweeps the Top 10. This may be a hot take, and it depends on Taylor's second-week numbers crashing hard. I think they will, and I think Drake/21 Savage will put up ridiculous streaming numbers. Last year, Drake had to contest with a mid-peak "Stay"...this year, the top 10 could be wide open for him.
3. No - Funniest possible outcome is Rihanna doesn't release anything again. But if she actually does, and it's a movie soundtrack song, I don't think it will be an automatic #1.
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rainie
8x Platinum Member
but its not real, and you don't exist
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Posts: 8,602
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Post by rainie on Oct 23, 2022 15:58:31 GMT -5
1. thinking taylor, as she has an extremely loyal fanbase and hasn't been oversaturatimg the market the way that drake has. that said, i do think drake has a shot to get this if there's a standout track that really clicks with the gp / gets extra promo since taylor's streams are gonna be much more evenly distributed between tracks 2. not with taylor dropping the week before 3. after the last six years there's no way i'm betting on rihanna dropping. even if she did contribute to the black panther soundtrack, i would assume it's just in the form of a feature so it doesn't distract from her upcoming album. also taylor and / or drake could potentially cockblock
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Post by Fears in the Fire on Oct 23, 2022 16:40:59 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 2. No, soundtrack songs aren’t gonna get close to #1
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renfield75
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Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,626
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Post by renfield75 on Oct 23, 2022 17:13:12 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No..."Anti-Hero" won't be out of the top ten in its second week 3. No
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kindofbiased
Platinum Member
Rough surf on the coast
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,756
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Post by kindofbiased on Oct 23, 2022 19:32:51 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No (and if I'm being honest I think people are really overestimating how big this album is gonna be) 3. I think it depends on the song and how much push it gets but for now I'll say no
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
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Post by jasper0102 on Oct 23, 2022 20:14:34 GMT -5
1 Taylor 2 No 3 No
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,739
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 23, 2022 20:25:40 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 3. No
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mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,239
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Post by mms82 on Oct 24, 2022 1:23:40 GMT -5
Taylor No Yes
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M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,868
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Post by M5AGTS on Oct 24, 2022 1:37:06 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 3. Yes
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Post by Limited Edition on Oct 26, 2022 18:52:09 GMT -5
Q1: Taylor Q2: No Q3: No
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 641
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Post by enwhy on Oct 26, 2022 23:06:53 GMT -5
FYI Drake's album has been pushed back a week. I think the fairest way to deal with this is to apply the question on "Her Loss" to whatever week he ends up releasing. As always, everyone can edit through Thursday night.
Basically, when Drake releases "Her Loss" (assuming it's this year), will he occupy the entire top 10?
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2022 7:59:17 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 3. Yes
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Oct 27, 2022 12:35:46 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 3. Yes
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NeRD
Diamond Member
RIHANNA NAVY
Joined: March 2010
Posts: 15,069
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Post by NeRD on Oct 27, 2022 12:47:16 GMT -5
1. Taylor 2. No 3. No
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mms82
Platinum Member
...
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,239
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Post by mms82 on Oct 27, 2022 12:47:36 GMT -5
FYI Drake's album has been pushed back a week. I think the fairest way to deal with this is to apply the question on "Her Loss" to whatever week he ends up releasing. As always, everyone can edit through Thursday night. Basically, when Drake releases "Her Loss" (assuming it's this year), will he occupy the entire top 10? I don't think it will, but I think it's significantly more likely now
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,695
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Post by 85la on Oct 29, 2022 21:28:26 GMT -5
Dang, didn't realize I missed the deadline, but answering anyways just for fun.
1. Taylor 2. No 3. No
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Post by jayromeo19 on Oct 29, 2022 23:10:20 GMT -5
1. thinking taylor, as she has an extremely loyal fanbase and hasn't been oversaturatimg the market the way that drake has. that said, i do think drake has a shot to get this if there's a standout track that really clicks with the gp / gets extra promo since taylor's streams are gonna be much more evenly distributed between tracks 2. not with taylor dropping the week before 3. after the last six years there's no way i'm betting on rihanna dropping. even if she did contribute to the black panther soundtrack, i would assume it's just in the form of a feature so it doesn't distract from her upcoming album. also taylor and / or drake could potentially cockblock Taylor Swift has dropped nearly twice amount of material as Drake in the 2020s but Drake is the one over saturating the market?
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Future Captain
4x Platinum Member
hi, i'm the visual representation of untreated mental illnesses
Joined: September 2014
Posts: 4,006
My Charts
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Post by Future Captain on Oct 30, 2022 10:26:05 GMT -5
1. thinking taylor, as she has an extremely loyal fanbase and hasn't been oversaturatimg the market the way that drake has. that said, i do think drake has a shot to get this if there's a standout track that really clicks with the gp / gets extra promo since taylor's streams are gonna be much more evenly distributed between tracks 2. not with taylor dropping the week before 3. after the last six years there's no way i'm betting on rihanna dropping. even if she did contribute to the black panther soundtrack, i would assume it's just in the form of a feature so it doesn't distract from her upcoming album. also taylor and / or drake could potentially cockblock Taylor Swift has dropped nearly twice amount of material as Drake in the 2020s but Drake is the one over saturating the market? i think it's mostly because taylor, despite the volume of material she had dropped, mostly release in short big bursts and fades after about a month while Drake is featured in like every other rap album/lead single in which many sticks around for quite a while
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Post by thegreatdivine on Oct 30, 2022 11:34:09 GMT -5
Taylor Swift has dropped nearly twice amount of material as Drake in the 2020s but Drake is the one over saturating the market? i think it's mostly because taylor, despite the volume of material she had dropped, mostly release in short big bursts and fades after about a month while Drake is featured in like every other rap album/lead single in which many sticks around for quite a while So far this decade, Drake has released 78 songs while Taylor Swift has released 121 songs.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Oct 30, 2022 15:46:17 GMT -5
Here's this week's score update! Oct 13: Will "Unholy" reach #1 this year?
A few weeks later, "Unholy" hits #1 for the first time, just barely eeking out "Bad Habit" before Taylor's chart nuke. We were split pretty evenly on this: congrats to 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy jasper0102 M5AGTS (5/9, 56%) for guessing correctly. Each earn 18 points! Oct 13: Will Lil Baby debut a song in the Top 10 on the 10/29 chart?He managed to debut 3! "California Breeze" (#4), "Forever" (#8), and "Real Spill" (#10) each earned a Top 10 spot. Surprisingly, we were pretty split on this one - I guess his album exceeded expectations. 85la jasper0102 khan Limited Edition M5AGTS (5/9, 56%) each predicted this, and earn 18 point apiece. Oct 6: Will "Heat Waves" reach 95 weeks on the chart?Last week, "Heat Waves" went recurrent after 91 weeks on the chart - 1 longer than the previous record-holder, "Blinding Lights." Most everyone saw this coming - 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 jasper0102 joshtheking Limited Edition M5AGTS rainie renfield75 (9/11, 82%) predicted Heat Waves to go recurrent before Week 95, and will each earn 12 points. Oct 6: How many songs will enter the Top 10 for the first time this fall? (9/24-12/17 charts; 13 weeks) A: 7 or fewer songs (0%) B: 8-10 songs (18%) C: 11-13 songs (64%) D: 14+ songs (18%)It's not official yet, but thanks to Lil Baby, we're already up to 7 new entries through last week. Add in another 8-10 from Taylor this week, and well, this is easily the most turnover we've seen during the fall in years! enwhy and @imhappy259 earn 55 points each for their predictions of "14+ new top 10 songs". Sep 22: Will Taylor's lead (or top-charting) single sell more than Super Freaky Girl (89k) in its first week?She pretty much shattered every top mark for the year with Midnights...except this one. Official numbers aren't out yet, but Anti-Hero looks like it's sold around 15k first week. While some of her album tracks sold more, none of her tracks sold more than 25k - nowhere near Nicki's numbers. Most of us predicted this: 85la enwhy jasper0102 joshtheking Limited Edition M5AGTS mms82 renfield75 (8/10, 80%) earn 13 points. Sep 8: Pick One: How many weeks at #1 will "As It Was" ultimately achieve this year? A - 13 or fewer weeks (43%) B - 14-15 weeks (43%) C - 16-17 weeks (14%) D - 18+ weeks (0%)With "As It Was" predicted to drop out of the Top 15 this week while falling on every metric, I think it's fair to say this one is done at #1 (I'll keep an eye out if it somehow bounces back). The song becomes the first ever to spend exactly 15 weeks at the top. Congrats to Baby Yoda Hot100Fan Fears in the Fire jasper0102 M5AGTS Groovy renfield75 for guessing 14-15 weeks at #1 - each earn 23 points! Sep 1: What position will "Sunroof" peak at this year? Guesses: 3 - 3 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 7Likewise, Sunroof - while not technically done - is forecasted to fall out of the Top 20 while losing on all metrics. It had a solid run and wound up peaking at #4. Congrats to 85la 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 jasper0102 kindofbiased yosh9x for guessing correctly. For predicting the exact peak, they each earn 50 points! Looking ahead:- Taylor Swift's album bomb is the big topic, as predictors are all in agreement that she's set to sweep the top 10:
- 6 was the highest guess for # of Top 10 debuts (average was 4.4) - 36% said she would out-stream First Class's debut week (54.6M) - this will be close! - Way back in May, 80% of us guessed that at least 2 of the Top 10 2010s artists would have #1s through the end of the year. While Post Malone let us down, it looks like Drake and Taylor will come through.
- Rihanna appears unlikely to get a #1 debut with her newest single (36% guessed she would have a #1 this year)
- Latto & Chloe just released "For the Night" - but unfortunately it's flopping pretty hard on streaming (59% said Latto would have another Hot 100 hit)
Click here to see full selections & scoresLots of movement this week! 85la jasper0102 @imhappy259 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan and M5AGTS each move up a spot in the Top 10! Plus 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 gains a couple spots and approaches the Top 10. Scoreboard1 (=) enwhy 856 2 (▲1) 85la 777 3 (▼1) joshtheking 715 4 (▲1) jasper0102 712 5 (▼1) Limited Edition 663 6 (▲1) imhappy259 584 7 (▲1) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 576 8 (▼2) phieaglesfan712 536 9 (=) kindofbiased 399 10 (▲1) M5AGTS 392 11 (▲2) Gen V.B. 352 12 (=) renfield75 349 13 (▼3) khan 344 14 (=) livelightning 258 15 (=) big2000 230
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Oct 30, 2022 15:47:22 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thursday, November 4)Q1: Drake StreamsA week later than we thought...21 Savage and Drake's album, "Her Loss", is set to be released next week. How many streams do we think his top song will end up with? Here's how his last few leads have performed, for context: 42.4M - Drake - Jimmy Cooks (June 2022) 67.3M - Drake - Way 2 Sexy (Sep 2021) 49.1M - Drake - What's Next (Mar 2021) 116.2M - Drake - In My Feelings (Jul 2018) 101.7M - Drake - God's Plan (Mar 2018) Pick One: How many 1st-week streams will the top-performing song off "Her Loss" get? (11/19 chart) A: Less than 30M B: 30 - 40M C: 40 - 50M D: 50 - 60M E: More than 60M Q2: Selena GomezSelena Gomez is partnering with Apple TV on a documentary called "My Mind & Me", which is releasing next week. The film will accompanied by a song of the same name. It'll include behind-the-scenes footage from 2015-2021. With her last album cycle, she proved that she still has a dedicated fanbase ("Lose You to Love Me" [#1], "Look at Her Now" [#27], "Ice Cream" [#13])...but will this song see any chart success, or will it be too much of a novelty? ( You can hear a preview of the song at the end of the trailer) Will Selena Gomez's song "My Mind & Me" debut in the Top 40? (11/19 chart)Q3 Unstoppable vs. Die For YouTwo 2016 songs are racing up the charts right now: Sia's "Unstoppable" & The Weeknd's "Die For You" are each seeing strong gains on radio and streaming. Which one will peak higher? Take a look at their chart runs (last 5 weeks) below: Unstoppable: 39 - 28 - 30 - 33 - 38 - ... Die For You: 37 - 33 - 37 - 41 - 46 - ... Which song will peak higher this year: "Die For You", "Unstoppable", or will they tie? (By 12/31 chart)
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joshtheking
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Posts: 1,392
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Post by joshtheking on Oct 30, 2022 16:06:34 GMT -5
I've been flopping on the predictions lately 1. D 2. No 3. Die For You- It has more room to grow whereas I think Unstoppable might have peaked
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renfield75
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Posts: 1,626
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Post by renfield75 on Oct 30, 2022 16:33:56 GMT -5
1. C 2. No...all the leftover album bomb tracks may push her debut further down than usual 3. Die For You
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M5AGTS
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2022
Posts: 2,868
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Post by M5AGTS on Oct 30, 2022 17:52:36 GMT -5
I'm in the top 10 now!!!!!
1. D 2. Yes 3. Die For You
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mms82
Platinum Member
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Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,239
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Post by mms82 on Oct 30, 2022 19:08:14 GMT -5
1 C 2 Yes 3 Unstoppable
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