otaviohmg
Platinum Member
Caught up in my head, hopin' you gon' say Was it worth it? Put that work in Got me nothin'
Joined: September 2019
Posts: 1,440
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Post by otaviohmg on May 8, 2022 10:43:52 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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Post by Fears in the Fire on May 8, 2022 11:46:20 GMT -5
1. Yes - Kendrick is a big enough artist that a weaker playing field should give him a major advantage, especially if he has a particular song from the album that he wants to push. 2. No - Way too much upheaval going on in the top 10 right now for this to happen. I think he will be roughly around the Chainsmokers’ number when the streak is broken, and I doubt Honest will get there in time either assuming it does so at all. Funny thing is The Chainsmoker’s single to continue their streak was also called Honest and it did not reach the top 10. Anyway I have to go with 1) yes 2) no
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on May 8, 2022 13:37:13 GMT -5
1. No 2. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 8, 2022 15:35:36 GMT -5
An idea: Maybe for future questions have more variable answers rather than just yes or no? Example: "Where will (blank) song peak? A. Top 3, B. Top 5, C. Top 10, D. Top 20" But if you wanna continue this way it's totally up to you! I love the idea! Another way to incorporate that might be bonus questions - So still a Yes/No, but some extra points if you can guess the exact position. I'll try to start with that next week! Also, it seems I have some work to do at coming up with balanced questions. Seems everyone feels strongly about both questions this week! (IMO though, both of these have some chance at going either way).
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on May 8, 2022 20:03:26 GMT -5
1. Yes, It'll probably be up against As It Was with like 28,000 points which is pretty beatable
2. No. I could actually see Stay still being top 10 by 7/30 but all it needs is to get forced out for a week & the streak is gone. In addition to the 5 songs currently above Stay, it will probably also be passed by About Damn Time and Wait For U. This means all Kendrick needs to do is drop 3 songs in the top 10 and the streak is snapped. Also no way Honest challenges top 10
Side note in Canada Bieber's streak goes all the way back to 1/9/21 meaning it's at 70 weeks as of now. Ghost is his highest song at #8 which means the streak might stop at exactly 70 if Future/ADT can push it out & Honest doesn't debut top 10.
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 9, 2022 20:05:08 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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pokepikalem
New Member
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Posts: 352
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Post by pokepikalem on May 9, 2022 20:40:22 GMT -5
1. No 2. No
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 9, 2022 20:46:12 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. No
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 11, 2022 23:07:35 GMT -5
1. No - I gotta challenge the heavy favorite! That being said, the only way I see this happening is if Kendrick puts out something super conceptual and non-Streaming friendly. He has a solid audience of rap fans and people that are super into music, but I still could absolutely see him losing the GP's interest depending on the direction he goes. It's worth noting, despite how big of a name he is (and likely bigger than ever), Kendrick has only ever had ONE Top 5 song. I do not think he's 100% a lock for #1.
2. No - this one isn't gonna make it through the end of the week lol whoops
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on May 12, 2022 8:11:53 GMT -5
1. No ~ Although the hype is there and The Heart pt.5 is the best rap song i heard so far this yr....it's gonna come down to sound at the end of the day and I just don't see it.
2. No ~ the 05/21 chart will imo will most likely be STAY's last week in the top 10 and won't come back the album bombs will make sure of that.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 12, 2022 16:20:27 GMT -5
Remember the deadline to predict/edit is midnight EST tonight! (~6.5 hours from this post) So far, 14/18 (78%) of predictors think Kendrick Lamar will debut a song at #1 next week. Interestingly, 78% is a lower percentage than people who thought Jack Harlow would have multiple top 10s - which is looking like a likely upset based on predictions! And 0/18 (0%) of predictors think Bieber will get 70 consecutive weeks in the top 10. not many beliebers on pulse I see
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 13, 2022 22:50:54 GMT -5
Last week's predictions
Q1: Will Kendrick debut at #1 on the 5/28 chart? Responses: 14/18 (78%) say "Yes" Q2: Will Justin Bieber beat Katy's record by reaching 70 consecutive weeks in the Top 10 (7/30 chart)? Responses: 0/18 (0%) say "Yes" Click here to see full selections & scoresThis week's questions (Deadline Thursday, May 19)Question 1: Harry Styles Album Bomb
Ten years ago, Harry Styles was enjoying the sudden success of his boyband, One Direction. When 1D split, it seemed likely that none of them would reach the same heights as when they were together. But Harry has strung together quite a few memorable songs as a solo artist, including Sign of the Times (2017 - #5 Peak), Adore You (2019 - #6 peak), Watermelon Sugar (2020 - #1 Peak), and finally As It Was (2022 - #1 Peak). As he prepares the release of what will undoubtedly be his biggest album yet, the sky is the limit for Styles. So, Will Harry Styles achieve his first proper "album bomb" with 3+ songs in the top 10 on the 6/4 chart? Question 2: Return of the 2010s
There's no doubt that the past few years have featured a lot of exciting new talent - Lil Nas X, Olivia, Lizzo, Jack Harlow, and more, But a lot of 2010s artists still loom large over the charts - Drake, Taylor, Bruno, Adele, Ed, and Bieber all had huge 2021s. Will they be able to keep it going in 2022? Billboard's top artists of the 2010s are as follows: 1) Drake, 2) Taylor Swift, 3) Bruno Mars, 4) Rihanna, 5) Adele, 6) Ed Sheeran, 7) Justin Bieber, 8) Katy Perry, 9) Maroon 5, 10) Post Malone The long-term question for this week, Will at least 2 of the Top Ten 2010s Artists be credited on a #1 hit between next week (6/4 chart) and the end of 2022 (12/31 chart)?*
And for extra points, give an exact answer to Q2 -Exactly how many Top Ten 2010s Artists will be credited on a #1 hit between next week (6/4 chart) and the end of 2022 (12/31 chart)?
*Just to clarify, for #2 a writing or production credit doesn't count...it has to be visible right on the Hot 100 Chart page
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 13, 2022 22:54:29 GMT -5
My predictions are: 1 - Yes: Seeing As It Was's continued success has shown me that Harry's much bigger than I gave him credit for. And honestly, looking up his chart history for this competition made me believe I've been underrating him for a while. I think he has a lot more great songs in the tank, and I see no reason why he won't have a good-sized album bomb next week.
2 - Yes: Drake is a given at this point. But the others are iffy-er. All the guaranteed hitmakers are coming off of big years - Adele, Ed, Bruno. And chances are, Taylor doesn't have another All Too Well. But looking at the rest of the names, I still like my odds. Bieber could release a smash at any time, and Post Malone may not be done yet. The rest are iffy-er, but most are at least worth watching.
3 - 2: The most likely outcome is some combination of Drake/Bieber/Post, and so I'll say exactly 2 of them will get it.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 14, 2022 8:38:00 GMT -5
1. No. This might seem like a bit of a hot take, but here's the thing: With only one single released so far before the album and so much upheaval in the top 10 right now, it's going to be much tougher for Harry to get more than one other song besides AIW into the top 10. I would not be surprised if we still have at least a couple Bad Bunny and Kendrick songs in the top 10 on 6/4 instead of a third song from Harry. Then again, some of the top 10 mainstays (Heat Waves, Stay, Big Energy, Enemy) have been on the decline as of recent, so I can see Harry's album cuts being competitive with these songs in their first week. 2a. Yes. I'm with enwhy on this one - it's between Drake, Bieber, and Post. All of them are just one runaway viral smash away from taking the #1. Taylor is the only other artist I can see taking it before the end of the year given the re-recordings that are in progress, and maybe even Ed since he's been getting a lot of exposure on tracks this year, even outside of the singles for =. 2b. If I had to guess, 2 - those being Drake and Bieber. Post would not surprise me, but I think he'd need a prominent guest feature to take him there (and it appears his upcoming album will have several).
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 14, 2022 14:21:55 GMT -5
1. Yes. Besides Wait 4 U, I think most of the songs from the recent album bombs debuting in the top 10 will be mostly frontloaded and won't managed to stick around that long. The fact that Harry would need two songs to debut in the top 10 doesn't seem impossible at this point. 2. Yes. I'm going to guess 3.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 14, 2022 14:38:56 GMT -5
1. No- I think he will have probably the whole album on the chart, but I'm not banking on 3 in the top 10. I think he could do it in top 20 though. 2a. No- This is tricky. I really doubt Maroon 5 or Katy Perry will. I don't expect Adele or Bruno back on the charts this year, not at the top anyways. Taylor is possible but I doubt she'll get any more #1's with her re-recordings. We'll have to see if Post Malone will get a hit out of this album cycle but I'm doubtful. That leaves Drake, Justin, Ed and Rihanna. I'm not being hopeful with Rihanna dropping lmao, but I also have to include the possibility. If she does drop it's a guaranteed #1. Drake is Drake, so it's not unlikely for him to get another #1. Justin and Ed are wildcards. Justin had 2 #1 hits last year but seeing how Honest has underperformed, unless he is featured on a song his streak could be over. Ed hasn't had a #1 since Perfect, but similar to Justin if he gets the right feature he could be in for one. I think mathematically the odds are in favour of No. 2b. Exactly 1, being Drake
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on May 14, 2022 14:48:47 GMT -5
1. No
2. Yeah, Drake and Post
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2022 14:53:41 GMT -5
1. Yes 2. Yes 3. 3
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 15, 2022 14:37:19 GMT -5
1. Yes. His career seems to just keep getting bigger and bigger ever since 1D disbanded, and the immediate runaway success of As It Was provides good indication for 3+ songs in the top ten during his album debut week.
2. No. It's a tough call, because most of last decade's top 10 artists' chart success seems to be greatly slowing down and even coming to a close now (more so because many of those acts first became big in the decade previous to that, the 2000s), so I would say it's likely only about 1 of those artists, but not 2+, will be credited on another #1 for the rest of this chart year in particular, I'd say Drake or Post would have the biggest shot, or maybe Rihanna if she releases.
3. 1
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 16, 2022 22:30:21 GMT -5
With the release of this week's chart, we have our first big score update! Question 1A: Firstly, Jack Harlow upsets the predictions! 83% of you (including me) thought he would debut multiple songs in the top 10. To say it wasn't even close is an understatement - after "First Class," his 2nd highest-charting hit was "Dua Lipa" at #21. Our 3 big winners ( joshtheking Limited Edition otaviohmg ) each earn 60 points for going against the grain and correctly predicting that Jack was overhyped. Well done! Question 2B: And we actually get a second result this week! Justin Bieber's Top 10 streak is snapped at 59 weeks - 2 short of The Chainsmokers 2016-17 run, and a full 10 weeks short of Katy Perry's 2010-11 run. Everyone who participated guessed correctly, and so everyone gets the minimum for a win - 10 points. In the coming weeks, we'll likely have a couple more results. A Kendrick #1 debut looks likely (Question 2A) and Lizzo is racing up the charts, making a Top 3 peak seem like a safe bet (Question 1B). Click here to see full selections & scores
Scoreboard1 joshtheking 90 1 Limited Edition 90 1 otaviohmg 90 4 85la 30 4 annoymous1 30 4 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 30 4 enwhy 30 4 Gen V.B. 30 4 gikem 30 4 imhappy259 30 4 inverse 30 4 kindofbiased 30 4 livelightning 30 4 phieaglesfan712 30 4 pokepikalem 30 16 Fears in the Fire 20 16 goldrush 20 16 Rose Knows Nylund 20 19 jazz 10 19 Music Fan 10 19 wild jhit 10
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 17, 2022 21:03:24 GMT -5
1. No, Harry waited too long to release the album. He should have put it out his album before Bad Bunny and Kendrick. With AIW pretty much already peaking and the competition stronger now, I just can’t see Harry getting more than one debut in the Top 10, to go along with AIW.
2. (a) Yes (b) 2 - Taylor Swift will get one with 1989 TV and Drake
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Post by Limited Edition on May 18, 2022 0:06:42 GMT -5
Q1: No Q2: Yes, exactly two
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Music Fan
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Imma Be Boom Boom Pow because I Gotta Feelin' I'm Alive
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Post by Music Fan on May 18, 2022 0:35:59 GMT -5
1. Yes. Harry will have 3+ Hot 100 Top 10 hits on debut week.
2. Yes.
3. Only 2 artists.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 21, 2022 0:49:32 GMT -5
Last week's predictions
Q3A: Will Harry Styles achieve his first proper "album bomb" with 3+ songs in the top 10 on the 6/4 chart? Responses: 5/10 (50%) say "Yes" Q3B: Will at least 2 of the Top Ten 2010s Artists be credited on a #1 hit between next week (6/4 chart) and the end of 2022 (12/31 chart)?* Responses: 8/10 (80%) say "Yes" Q3C: Exactly how many Top Ten 2010s Artists will be credited on a #1 hit between next week (6/4 chart) and the end of 2022 (12/31 chart)? Responses: 1 - 20%, 2 - 60%, 3 - 20% Click here to see full selections & scoresThis week's questions (Deadline Thursday, May 26)Question 1a: Tate McRae
Tate McRae is on an interesting career trajectory so far. It's hard to tell if she's on the verge of breaking out, or disappearing from the mainstream. Her first big single "you broke me first" took off early in the pandemic and peaked at #17, to mixed critical reception. Since then, she's had limited success with songs like "You" (#58 peak), "she's all i wanna be" (#44 peak), and "Chaotic" (#80 peak). Recently she's changed up her sound a bit and began exploring higher-tempo songs. Her debut album, "I Used To Think I Could Fly", drops on Friday. So, Will Tate McRae debut any new songs on the Hot 100 next week (6/11 chart)?Question 1b: Tate McRae BonusWill Tate McRae have a top 10 hit this year? (6/11-12/31 charts - credited features DO count)Question 2: Song of the Summer
Billboard's annual Song of the Summer chart will be starting up sometime in the next couple of weeks (usually after Memorial Day) and will run for 12 weeks. The big story right now is Harry Styles' "As It Was", which is topping streaming and radio charts. But, there are a few wildcards going into the summer. Drake/Future/Tem's collab is catching fire on Apple Music, First Class is still pulling huge numbers, and we're still waiting to hear the new BTS single, Post Malone album, and Lizzo album. Needless to say, As It Was will need to have some serious streaming longevity to hold its #1 spot. The long-term question for this week, Will Harry Styles' "As It Was" be Billboard's 2022 "Song of the Summer"?
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 21, 2022 0:56:26 GMT -5
I'm going to say
1a - Yes...this era's been full of bangers from her IMO, and I can absolutely see another single cracking the top 100 next week.
1b - No, unfortunately I think she might just not be interesting enough as an artist to truly blow up like this. At least not unless she makes some really incredible music this album.
2 - No! In fact, super hot take: I don't think the song of the summer is out yet! ;)
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 21, 2022 3:52:22 GMT -5
1a. Yes- I'm only predicting one to debut at the moment, being What Would You Do? 1b. No- I could see She's All I Wanna Be making top 20, but top 10 is too far imo. And she doesn't have the star power to debut there just yet. 2. No- Gonna go with First Class taking song of the summer instead
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 21, 2022 9:16:41 GMT -5
1a. Yes - Most likely What Would You Do since it got a video and appears primed to be the next single after SAIWB, but we may also get a fan-favorite deep cut or two. 1b. No - SAIWB is peaking on radio (boo), and the top 10 is way too strong and hectic right now for her to get a big debut. (By the way, enwhy, unless I missed something, Tate’s album should be titled I Used To Think I Could Fly) 2. No - It will either be About Damn Time or a yet-to-be-released song, I think. Maybe even something from Post’s or Calvin Harris’ upcoming albums if they get good reception.
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on May 21, 2022 9:25:12 GMT -5
1a. Yes - Most likely What Would You Do since it got a video and appears primed to be the next single after SAIWB, but we may also get a fan-favorite deep cut or two. 1b. No - SAIWB is peaking on radio (boo), and the top 10 is way too strong and hectic right now for her to get a big debut. (By the way, enwhy, unless I missed something, Tate’s album should be titled I Used To Think I Could Fly) 2. No - It will either be About Damn Time or a yet-to-be-released song, I think. Maybe even something from Post’s or Calvin Harris’ upcoming albums if they get good reception. fixed! thanks. I hadn't realized - her first 2 were EPs as well, so this is actually her debut album.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 21, 2022 10:12:09 GMT -5
1a. Yes. No other competing major album releases on Friday as well as songs from most recent album bombs not holding up that well should give her a chance. 1b. No. Unless she manages to get a feature or is featured on a song by another artist that helps her accomplish that. 2. No. This is probably the most open I have seen the race for the Song of the Summer in quite a few years. While As It Was should continue to hold up well at radio and streaming, and should probably manage to stay in the top 10 all summer, I suspect another song will eventually surpass it in the race.
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 21, 2022 12:15:42 GMT -5
1a. Yes 1b. No. This is a little tough to predict, and it could go either way, but since she's not very huge yet, I'm leaning towards no. 2. No. Also hard to say. It does have a shot if it continues to be huge and is able to fend off competitors, but since it will already have spent around 8 weeks on the chart before the summer period begins and has already hit number one, I'm leaning towards not.
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