onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 13, 2022 19:20:22 GMT -5
Estimated first week currently at 28-33k. :( Really? That will not be enough to dethrone Morgan Wallen. I thought Carrie Underwood would keep him out of the top spot for maybe two weeks. She may debut at #3 depending where Zach Bryan lands.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Jun 13, 2022 19:55:32 GMT -5
Estimated first week currently at 28-33k. Quite bummed out by this. That’s such a colossal nosedive from Cry Pretty, and even a steep drop from My Savior. It was gonna happen eventually, but I really hope that something can turn around quickly because it’ll break my heart to her #1 debut streak come to an end. They could’ve possibly prevented this with a better preparation of physical stock tbh. She’d be in a little bit more of a fighting stance. Other than that, the only explanation is that the market is dead (has been for years now and is just always going to be) and her streaming metrics are just too damn weak. Especially against That Man. 💔💔💔💔💔
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3chords
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Post by 3chords on Jun 13, 2022 20:16:05 GMT -5
Cry Pretty was bundled with tour tickets so that’s not a great metric. But My Savior did do really well, so I’m surprised.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 13, 2022 21:03:26 GMT -5
The strong pure sales for My Savior is more like an abnormality. I remember that album having no vinyls on release and the pre-order is not particularly great.
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daddy
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Post by daddy on Jun 14, 2022 3:28:56 GMT -5
That's colossal flop tbh. I thought 50k pure sales and 60k SPS. Yeah it’s been nearly impossible to find it in stores, which really hurts a physical album seller like Carrie. : /
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toomuchboy
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Post by toomuchboy on Jun 14, 2022 12:52:32 GMT -5
As far as singles go, I definitely don't expect this to go 5 deep. Besides the fact that she almost never does that, "If I Didn't Love You" in some ways started this era even though it's not on the album by being her "return." Having 5 singles on top of that...very unlikely.
It'll be interesting to see what they go with considering so much of the album does have potential. It would be a shorter list to say which songs I *wouldn't* want as singles (D&R, Garden, PEE for the obvious reason, Velvet Heartbreak). She Don't Know is my personal favorite on the album, but there are so many great songs here that I wouldn't be mad if it didn't end up being a single.
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Post by loveofmusic on Jun 14, 2022 13:42:08 GMT -5
Is there a list of sales for country album first weeks recently? Carrie's numbers are lower than expected, but I want to see how other A-listers & established artists #'s look.
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bdrm87
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Post by bdrm87 on Jun 14, 2022 13:49:57 GMT -5
As far as singles go, I definitely don't expect this to go 5 deep. Besides the fact that she almost never does that, "If I Didn't Love You" in some ways started this era even though it's not on the album by being her "return." Having 5 singles on top of that...very unlikely. It'll be interesting to see what they go with considering so much of the album does have potential. It would be a shorter list to say which songs I *wouldn't* want as singles (D&R, Garden, PEE for the obvious reason, Velvet Heartbreak). She Don't Know is my personal favorite on the album, but there are so many great songs here that I wouldn't be mad if it didn't end up being a single. I never even thought about PEE before 😂😂😂
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3chords
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Post by 3chords on Jun 14, 2022 16:13:38 GMT -5
Hits predicts at 24k pure 33k total, #2 country, #8 overall.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Jun 14, 2022 16:16:56 GMT -5
Damn. I’m gonna hate to see her #1 debut streak end. 🙁💔
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schnetzka
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The album that never ends... I mean 'THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT: THE ANTHOLOGY' out now!
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Post by schnetzka on Jun 14, 2022 16:31:32 GMT -5
Honestly with those numbers I wasn't even expecting her to reach the top 10 overall so I am pleasantly surprised with that prediction (well as pleasant as it can be given the numbers).
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Post by The Brazilian Guy 🇧🇷 on Jun 14, 2022 18:39:27 GMT -5
Is there a list of sales for country album first weeks recently? Carrie's numbers are lower than expected, but I want to see how other A-listers & established artists #'s look. I don’t know about the men, but country albums by female artists released during the past year I can remember Kacey’s “Star-crossed” (77k) - #03 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums Miranda’s “Palomino” (36k) - #04 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Maren’s “Humble Quest” (20k) - #21 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Dolly’s “Run, Rose, Run” (17k) - #34 Billboard 200 / #04 Hot Country Albums Carly’s "29: Written In Stone" (10k) - #83 Billboard 200 / #09 Hot Country Albums Then there’s also Taylor’s new version of “Red” (605k) - #01 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 14, 2022 18:52:41 GMT -5
Jason "Macon" (37k) #08 Billboard 200/ #03 Hot Country Albums Jason "Georgia" (26k) #08 Billboard 200/ #02 Hot Country Albums Thomas Rhett "Where We Started" (30k) #12 Billboard 200/ #02 Hot Country Albums
Really her numbers are not a flop, numbers are just that low. She could've been higher without the CD stocking situation, a few more songs on the album, and with a stronger better connecting lead single. Really this album was a big shot in the dark for numbers. We haven't had a real album with unaffected, uninflated numbers since Storyteller, and that was nearly 7 years ago. She's right in line with her peers, her and Jason always had relatively similar numbers and she is right in line with him. She would be going number one with this album if Morgan wasn't having a once in a lifetime chart run.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 14, 2022 19:12:58 GMT -5
It looks like Zach Bryan will do about 90% of Carrie Underwood's totals, so she should be at #2 next week.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Jun 14, 2022 19:44:12 GMT -5
To be fair, it's more like everyone in mainstream country flopped rather than specific artists flopped. Keep in mind that Walker Hayes album did 16k pure sales and 33k SPS.
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3chords
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Post by 3chords on Jun 14, 2022 20:11:55 GMT -5
Did Jason have a bigger single going into Macon? Eric had a weird discrepancy too didn’t he?
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Jun 14, 2022 20:20:54 GMT -5
Did Jason have a bigger single going into Macon? Eric had a weird discrepancy too didn’t he? If I Didn't Love You
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toomuchboy
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Post by toomuchboy on Jun 15, 2022 13:43:15 GMT -5
Is there a list of sales for country album first weeks recently? Carrie's numbers are lower than expected, but I want to see how other A-listers & established artists #'s look. I don’t know about the men, but country albums by female artists released during the past year I can remember Kacey’s “Star-crossed” (77k) - #03 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums Miranda’s “Palomino” (36k) - #04 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Maren’s “Humble Quest” (20k) - #21 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Dolly’s “Run, Rose, Run” (17k) - #34 Billboard 200 / #04 Hot Country Albums Carly’s "29: Written In Stone" (10k) - #83 Billboard 200 / #09 Hot Country Albums Then there’s also Taylor’s new version of “Red” (605k) - #01 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums I feel like Kacey is an unfair comparison. Star-crossed was the follow-up to her most widely acclaimed album, Golden Hour. That was probably a peak moment of exposure for Kacey.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 15, 2022 13:46:27 GMT -5
I don’t know about the men, but country albums by female artists released during the past year I can remember Kacey’s “Star-crossed” (77k) - #03 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums Miranda’s “Palomino” (36k) - #04 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Maren’s “Humble Quest” (20k) - #21 Billboard 200 / #02 Hot Country Albums Dolly’s “Run, Rose, Run” (17k) - #34 Billboard 200 / #04 Hot Country Albums Carly’s "29: Written In Stone" (10k) - #83 Billboard 200 / #09 Hot Country Albums Then there’s also Taylor’s new version of “Red” (605k) - #01 Billboard 200 / #01 Hot Country Albums I feel like Kacey is an unfair comparison. Star-crossed was the follow-up to her most widely acclaimed album, Golden Hour. That was probably a peak moment of exposure for Kacey. I very much agree with this. She had new fans going into that album that were post Golden Hour. They may stick around for future releases or may just be riding the Golden Hour momentum trend. Only time will tell. The best people to compare her numbers to are Luke Bryan, Jason Aldean, and Miranda Lambert. They all normally had numbers relatively similar to Carrie in some sort of fashion.
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fireflies
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Post by fireflies on Jun 15, 2022 14:14:45 GMT -5
I also find it interesting how long her albums last on the BB 200.
Here's hoping her new album has legs and can stay on for awhile.
Some Hearts = 157 weeks Greatest Hits = 147 weeks (should add more weeks eventually) Carnival Ride = 101 weeks Blown Away = 92 weeks Play On = 77 weeks Storyteller = 72 weeks Cry Pretty = 52 weeks My Gift = 22 weeks (will definitely add weeks every year) My Savior = 9 weeks
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 17, 2022 15:09:47 GMT -5
HITS final numbers have this with 32,800 combined units. 24,000 physical and 8,100 from streaming. This should land her at #2 on Country and #8 all genre. Sometimes there is a small margin of error from the HITS final numbers and BBs Sunday numbers. Zach Bryan is expected to pull in just over 30,000 units, I hope he doesn't somehow get in front of this, causing a #3 peak on country.
It's more or less in line with all the other country artists, but I still hate to see it.
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carriefan15
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Post by carriefan15 on Jun 18, 2022 0:19:58 GMT -5
HITS final numbers have this with 32,800 combined units. 24,000 physical and 8,100 from streaming. This should land her at #2 on Country and #8 all genre. Sometimes there is a small margin of error from the HITS final numbers and BBs Sunday numbers. Zach Bryan is expected to pull in just over 30,000 units, I hope he doesn't somehow get in front of this, causing a #3 peak on country. It's more or less in line with all the other country artists, but I still hate to see it. Who is Zach Bryan??
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Post by tim on Jun 18, 2022 0:50:15 GMT -5
HITS final numbers have this with 32,800 combined units. 24,000 physical and 8,100 from streaming. This should land her at #2 on Country and #8 all genre. Sometimes there is a small margin of error from the HITS final numbers and BBs Sunday numbers. Zach Bryan is expected to pull in just over 30,000 units, I hope he doesn't somehow get in front of this, causing a #3 peak on country. It's more or less in line with all the other country artists, but I still hate to see it. Who is Zach Bryan??I knew this was coming.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Jun 18, 2022 2:14:38 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but I have to agree…who is Zach Bryan?! I don’t mean this in an “I don’t know her” way; I just genuinely don’t know her lmao
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Post by tim on Jun 18, 2022 2:23:14 GMT -5
I’m sorry, but I have to agree…who is Zach Bryan?! I don’t mean this in an “I don’t know her” way; I just genuinely don’t know her lmao This is probably a bit off-topic for the thread, but since it has come up here's an intro to Zach Bryan. And for those that participate in the new releases rankdown series, you'll be introduced to his song "Something in the Orange" which is featured there.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 18, 2022 7:10:57 GMT -5
Yeah he's pretty big on the streaming front, and on top of that, like Morgan, released a double album, consisting of 34 songs, a few weeks ago and it having a slow decent. Not quite as slow as Morgan though.
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Typo
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Post by Typo on Jun 18, 2022 16:30:38 GMT -5
Just looking at the numbers of her contemporaries puts her debut into context:
Luke Bryan - Born Here, Live Here, Die Here (65k) - 2020 release - I'm sure his next release will decline even further. Jason Aldean - Macon (37k) Miranda Lambert - Palomino (36k) Blake Shelton - Body Language (24k) Keith Urban - The Speed of Now Pt. 1 (40k) - 2020 release
Honestly, mainstream Country acts are pretty much just DOA when it comes to album sales at this point. All of these artists have had multiple 100k+ debuts in the past - now look at them. Even with an undeniable smash like "If I Didn't Love You," Jason couldn't top 40k. The streaming era has left this entire audience behind. That's not even including the numbers of newer acts (Thomas Rhett, Maren Morris) who are struggling at an even worse rate.
I'm not sure how any of these acts are supposed to respond to this climate though tbh. It's not like Carrie is ever going to appeal to the Morgan Wallen crowd. No amount of playlisting is going to make her music connect with that audience.
Fortunately, I do think D&R has enough hits for longevity at Country radio. "Ghost Story" is already performing better than any of the Cry Pretty singles, and she still has an arsenal of more radio-friendly tracks up her sleeve.
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schnetzka
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The album that never ends... I mean 'THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT: THE ANTHOLOGY' out now!
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Post by schnetzka on Jun 18, 2022 17:39:15 GMT -5
I will say though that if the 32,000 sales turns out to be accurate that is still a couple thousand less than her peers like Miranda. Not much of a difference but a difference nonetheless. I'm just nitpicking and am hoping that is because of the lack of stock in stores.
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zdm1998
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Post by zdm1998 on Jun 18, 2022 17:54:43 GMT -5
I will say though that if the 32,000 sales turns out to be accurate that is still a couple thousand less than her peers like Miranda. Not much of a difference but a difference nonetheless. I'm just nitpicking and am hoping that is because of the lack of stock in stores. For what it's worth she was 32,900, so that will be rounded up to 33K even. Also, important to note that Miranda had the same pure sales, but slightly more streams due to Palomino having three more tracks, compared to Carrie's album, which is a fourth more songs than Carrie's album had, which is why her streaming was slightly better. Jason's album performed slightly better due to the benefit of releasing when IIDLY was about to peak, where the song is having maximum exposure on radio, which translates to higher streaming as well.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 18, 2022 18:00:46 GMT -5
I will say though that if the 32,000 sales turns out to be accurate that is still a couple thousand less than her peers like Miranda. Not much of a difference but a difference nonetheless. I'm just nitpicking and am hoping that is because of the lack of stock in stores. Not to mention Miranda's last record opened with 53k in 2019, while Carrie started with 73k just a little over 1 year ago with a gospel album. Like, yes, sales/streams for country artists are not good across the board rn, but we also kinda have to acknowledge that Carrie's decline was steeper than some of her contemporaries. Twice as many people bought her niche religious side project than her mainstream country record. I think the fact that almost everyone who went out to buy the record noticed issues with physical copies being readily available can be partially blamed for the decline. It really does seem like stock did affect her numbers.
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