85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,919 
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Post by 85la on Jul 10, 2022 22:01:43 GMT -5
Frank Ocean could be releasing new music very soon. If he drops an album, I could see it being one of the biggest bombs since CLB. The man has 20 milion monthly Spotify listeners with only two albums under his belt, the latter of which was released six years ago and is commonly considered the best album of the last decade. I know that this year taught us not to take anything for granted, but this is the one prediction I'm confident in making Possibly, but I'm not at all convinced of it, because with the number of flops or under-performances we've seen this year it seems that all bets are off and nothing is certain. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 11, 2022 6:28:17 GMT -5
Frank Ocean could be releasing new music very soon. If he drops an album, I could see it being one of the biggest bombs since CLB. The man has 20 milion monthly Spotify listeners with only two albums under his belt, the latter of which was released six years ago and is commonly considered the best album of the last decade. I know that this year taught us not to take anything for granted, but this is the one prediction I'm confident in making You couldn't be more wrong in making such a prediction. First off, you should never use Spotify Monthly Listeners as a way to guage actual interest in an artist. It doesn't mean sh*t. What you should pay attention to are the most streamed acts on Spotify daily (last I checked, he was around #145-#160 on that list, which means he's pulling next to nothing on Spotify daily and is probably doing better on Apple Music). Second, Frank has never been a streaming behomoth. He has released exactly one album in the streaming era and all the one-off singles he's released since then haven't done much streaming-wise (he has released 10 one-off singles since 2017. Only 3 of them charted on the Hot 100 (at #72, #98 and #85 respectively). I don't know why you think hype alone will be enough to have his album pull enough streams to have anywhere close to a CLB-esque album bomb when much bigger/established streaming acts haven't come close. We just saw how Kendrick Lamar's first studio album in over 5 years barely amassed more streams than DAMN. (2017) in it's debut week. Third, Frank doesn't make music that lends itself to making a splash on streaming/music charts. His last studio album scored such a massive debut because of pure sales (236,000 out of its 276,000 total units were pure sales). His next album should be impactful. I just don't think it'll be numbers-based. |
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Post by After Minutes on Jul 11, 2022 7:33:57 GMT -5
Everything you said proves my point.
If a person who hasn't been musically active in half a decade is still getting millions of people to check into his music then there is bound to be hype, especially since he only has two albums out on Spotify. Denying that is like saying that there wasn't any anticipation for Adele's record, which would be simply delusional. Of the singles he's released in the meantime, one is his second most streamed song, with over 550 milion plays - despite not being a hit upon release, like you've pointed out.
You also have to keep in mind that Blonde was an Apple Music exclusive upon release, and it dropped on a Saturday. Also, the streaming era hasn't yet really fully started for albums in 2016, when the album dropped. Drake dropped views a few weeks prior. It sold a milion first week, and 850 thousand of that were album sales.
Frank Ocean has only grown since, mostly due to the increasing popularity of his back catalogue. I'd compare him to Harry Styles or Tyler in this sense - despite Harry's solo career beginning after Blonde dropped. All of these artists are album artists first and foremost (despite Harry also having massive singles). Songs that haven't ever been hits are still getting massive streams because of how well they've connected with these artists' fanbases.
I'd assume that Frank's album would do something between these to, so it would probably pull numbers close to MM&TBS, The Off-Season or Blonde itself. But due to how music consumption has changed over the last few years, especially when it comes to albums, 280-300k nowadays would mean a huge splash on the charts and multiple top 20 entries, while when Blonde dropped, it only gave Frank a few entries in the lower half of the hot 100
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jul 11, 2022 9:11:39 GMT -5
US Spotify - 07/10/22
1(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) 1,504,802 (-141,310)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 1,131,266 (-98,691)
3(=) Joji - Glimpse of Us 1,129,654 (-81,327)
4(=) Bad Bunny, Chencho Corleone - Me Porto Bonito 1,015,075-1,130,738 (-115,663)
5(=) Drake, 21 Savage - Jimmy Cooks 995,826 (-124,174)
6(=) Bad Bunny - Tití Me Preguntó 883,630 (-95,859)
7(=) Doja Cat - Vegas 734,268 (-89,997)
8(+6) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 726,070 (+21,579)
9(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 701,572 (-74,179)
10(=) Post Malone, Doja Cat - I Like You (A Happier Song) 700,730 (-74,421)
Brent Faiyaz - WASTELAND
24(-4) ALL MINE 489,685 (-123,000)
25(-4) LOOSE CHANGE 469,734 (-142,204)
41(-12) GRAVITY 391,587 (-106,348)
48(-17) PRICE OF FAME 374,358 (-108,647)
64(-6) DEAD MAN WALKING 318,675 (-67,232)
65(-9) ADDICTIONS 318,375 (-72,432)
68(-15) ROLLING STONE 311,906 (-79,853)
76(-21) GHETTO GATSBY 300,048 (-90,860)
88(-24) FYTB 289,906 (-80,032)
94(-28) WASTING TIME 283,432 (-82,524)
102(-27) ROLE MODEL 277,068 (-65,538)
110(-42) HEAL YOUR HEART (INTERLUDE) 269,409 (-91,947)
120(-31) JACKIE BROWN 260,938 (-91,947)
149(-72) VILLAIN'S THEME 237,612 (-96,713)
150(-36) BAD LUCK 236,322 (-54,158)
Total Streams: 4,829,055 (-27%)
Others:
11(-3) Metallica - Master of Puppets 690,460 (-102,867)
12(-1) Lizzo - About Damn Time 685,646 (-77,931)
13(-1) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 662,891 (-50,959)
14(-1) Future, Drake, Tems - WAIT FOR U 656,948 (-53,611)
15(=) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 632,251 (-57,236)
16(=) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 623,446 (-57,745)
17(=) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 603,944 (-55,322)
18(=) Bad Bunny - Efecto 581,505 (-67,540)
19(=) Bad Bunny - Moscow Mule 562,559 (-63,973)
20(+3) Yung Gravy - Betty (Get Money) 561,933 (-37,848)
21(+1) Bad Bunny, Bomba Estéreo - Ojitos Lindos 545,784 (-63,906)
22(+4) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 501,502 (-42,329)
23(+2) Bad Bunny, Rauw Alejandro - Party 489,768 (-59,036)
26(+1) Bad Bunny - Después de la Playa 461,719 (-54,974)
27(+1) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 442,659 (-66,901)
28(+2) Charlie Puth, Jung Kook - Left and Right 438,898 (-44,411)
29(-5) Kid Cudi - love. 431,641 (-163,151)
30(+4) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 428,677 (-23,158)
32(+1) KAROL G - PROVENZA 409,106 (-47,460)
33(+5) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 408,039 (-36,322)
35(=) Pharrell Williams, 21 Savage, Tyler, The Creator - Cash In Cash Out 405,263 (-42,960)
36(=) Post Malone, Roddy Ricch - Cooped Up 403,248 (-43,795)
37(+2) Future - PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ 403,060 (-34,787)
38(-1) Luke Combs - The Kind of Love We Make 401,278 (-44,653)
39(+6) The Weeknd - Die For You 400,691 (-19,315)
40(=) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 400,688 (-36,334)
42(-1) Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Tarot 388,973 (-44,959)
43(-1) Drake - Sticky 387,223 (-45,121)
47(+1) Drake - Massive 377,987 (-33,673)
49(+3) Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 371,513 (-24,951)
51(+8) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 369,804 (-11,628)
53(+4) Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina 357,158 (-31,304)
54(+9) Sleepy Hallow, 347aidan - Die Young 353,008 (-19,061)
56(+11) Tears for Fears - Everybody Wants to Rule the World 350,105 (-15,757)
57(-7) Cardi B, Kanye West, Lil Durk - Hot Shit 347,785 (-57,238)
59(+3) Harry Styles - Music for a Sushi Restaurant 329,385 (-33,218)
61(+15) Joji - SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK 329,385 (-9,444)
62(+7) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 327,181 (-24,347)
66(-15) Fivio Foreign, The Kid LAROI - Paris to Tokyo 316,209 (-82,952)
69(+3) Bad Bunny, Tony Dize - La Corriente 310,013 (-40,377)
70(+1) Bad Bunny - Un Ratito 309,117 (-41,343)
71(-1) Latto - Big Energy 308,998 (-42,202)
78(+5) Musical Youth - Pass the Dutchie 296,587 (-28,880)
83(+9) Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9 294,190 (-18,669)
84(+3) WILLOW - Wait a Minute! 294,119 (-23,609)
86(-1) Yeat - Rich Minion 291,209 (-29,699)
97(+12) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 280,961 (-16,691)
99(+8) Bailey Zimmerman - Fall in Love 280,523 (-17,367)
101(-8) Quavo, Takeoff - HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) 278,400 (-33,534)
104(-9) Bad Bunny - Neverita 276,474 (-34,257)
112(-8) Bad Bunny - Yo No Soy Celoso 267,247 (-35,125)
115(-10) Kid Cudi, MGMT, Ratatat - Pursuit of Happiness (Nightmare) 265,389 (-35,229)
117(+10) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 262,251 (-12,244)
119(+17) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 261,174 (-7,307)
122(-2) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 260,734 (-24,285)
123(+3) ERNEST, Morgan Wallen - Flower Shops 260,395 (-18,861)
130(+3) Dierks Bentley, BRELAND, HARDY - Beers On Me 250,708 (-19,789)
131(+9) Elley Duhé - MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 250,352 (-15,042)
132(-2) Russell Dickerson, Jake Scott - She Likes It 250,263 (-21,079)
135(+7) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 248,349 (-11,333)
139(+19) AJR - World's Smallest Violin 243,914 (-3,753)
142(+2) Ruth B. - Dandelions 242,419 (-15,429)
153(+2) The Kid LAROI - Thousand Miles 234,814 (-14,656)
154(-5) Nate Smith - Whiskey On You 234,480 (-18,963)
156(+1) Guns N Roses - Sweet Child O' Mine 232,078 (-15,628)
158(+32) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 231,953 (-2,321)
167(-24) Kid Cudi - Mr. Rager 227,468 (-31,032)
172(+23) Mr.Kitty - After Dark 225,179 (-7,814)
180(-11) Polo G - Distraction 220,386 (-19,916)
190(+8) $uicideboy$ - Antarctica 215,554 (-15,990)
193(-10) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 214,365 (-20,771)
194(-6) Lil Baby - Right On 213,510 (-20,875)
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jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 35,628
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Post by jenglisbe on Jul 11, 2022 9:49:50 GMT -5
The discount propels it all the way to #3 on itunes, that is what? 8000 downloads? "As It Was" sold 5000 total downloads last chart week. What was its iTunes position most of the week? "Break My Soul" sold 11,000 downloads last chart week. "About Damn Time" was in between them on the Digital Songs chart, so it probably sold 9,000 or so. We might get numbers today for the chart week that just ended. Anyway a boost of 3 positions on iTunes probably is 2,000-3,000 more copies at most, depending how it sustains during the week. That's like 6 more chart points. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 11, 2022 10:46:13 GMT -5
After Minutes all you're really doing is creating unrealistic commercial expectations for Frank's next album, which I honestly don't understand, seeing as he's never been a massive mainstream act. He won't be doing those numbers, why? He's not nearly as big as the artists who released the albums you mentioned. Simple. It's silly to compare him to Adele or Kendrick Lamar or Harry Styles or Drake or anyone else who has a way bigger fanbase of people who have demonstrated the levels of their support on several occasions across multiple albums. Will his album have a ton of hype? Absolutely. Will that necessarily translate to massive numbers in the realm of 250k units and above? Hell no. You seem to not understand what it takes to have an album debut anywhere close to 200k units in the current musical climate. The only albums that have debuted with over 300k units so far this year moved massive pure sale units — selling power Frank Ocean simply doesn't have. I distinctively remember something like this happening back in 2016. Beyoncè & Drake had dropped their albums, debuting with 653k & 1.04M units respectively. By July, there'd been confirmation that a Frank Ocean album would be dropping that month (it ended up dropping in August, but many people seemed to be convinced that his album would debut with more units than Lemonade and with almost as many units as Views). Why anyone would think that is beyond me, but people back then also made the mistake of confusing hype for massive numbers when that isn't always the case. Sure enough, Blond(e) dropped and debuted with 276k units — considerably lower units than Lemonade/Views. I say all of that to say this: in the current musical landscape, there's every chance in the world that a Summer Walker album debuts with more units than a Frank Ocean album. Frank Ocean doesn't have a streaming audience to speak of with regards to new music. Summer Walker does. Him dropping an album and debuting with 100k+ units would be a massive win for him. Expecting him to debut with much more units than that is simply being neglectful of the realities of the current state of the music industry.
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