Billboard Hot 100: 07/23/2022

[king_billboard_100]

Harry replace hiself at number one would be amazing

[Enigma.]

I'm a big fan of Frank Ocean and the only way he can do 200k is to release physical (especially vinyl) at the same time with the album. He might be a good vinyl seller.

[Groovy]

I hope Harry and As It Was holds on for one more week and get that 10th week and join The Box, Butter and Easy on Me as the only songs this decade that have double digit weeks at 1.

[lurker2]

One thing I'm curious about for this week is who takes streaming number one - last week seemed pretty close between Running Up That Hill, Wait For U, Jimmy Cooks, and Me Porto Bonito. I'm hoping got MPB - I prefer RUTH, but it'd be cool for a Spanish song to top that chart and RUTH already has a couple weeks.

[After Minutes]

But in all seriousness one would simply have to be in a whole different universe of ignorance to expect Frank Ocean to do 100k first week. While in my opinion, a follow-up to Blonde would be the most hyped album of the year no matter who else would be releasing at the time, aside from maybe Rihanna, but that's only my opinion, and I think that we should rather look at the numbers.

Summer Walker debuted with numbers similar to Tyler, slightly lower, so about 170k. Tyler is an artist that we can compare to Frank Ocean - due to their partnership and simply because of how often they work together, I'd say that, realistically speaking, we should be able to equate them in terms of popularity.

I genuinely feel confident in saying that at least 90% of Tyler, The Creator's active listeners either are Frank Ocean fans or are willing to actively seek out music from him, too. There are obviously some exceptions, but there are also Frank Ocean fans who don't listen to Tyler, but I'll treat the 170k that his last album did upon it's release as our minimum. I just don't see Frank Ocean doing less than 160-170k, or Tyler's first-week range. If we want to dive into the math, then we can compare Blonde with Tyler's release closest in time to that album - Flower Boy. Flower Boy did 100k, so Blonde did 270% that. I do think that Tyler grew in popularity more than Frank did in the span of the last few years, so saying that a Frank Ocean album would do 270% of CMIYGL out of the gate would just be objectively wrong. 460k units - because that would be 2,7×170k, just seems impossible. What seems more realistic is the result we get when slashing that lead in half. Tyler's popularity grew, the music consumption climate is different now than it was 5-6 years ago. Blonde sold 270% of Flower Boy, but FO3 would sell 135% of CMIYGL and that is... 230k. That seems like a realistic estimate to make. While I think that the hype, anticipation and how it could connect with people should push the next album a little higher, I'd say that 230k first week seems like a realistic and relatively safe prediction to make for a new Frank Ocean album. With most of the units being SPS, that would make it one of the biggest album bombs since CLB, and also one of the biggest first weeks for albums in general since then.

And that's about how I'd map it out:
160-170k - low end
220-230k - safe prediction
290-300k - high end / my expectations

The lower numbers would be Tyler's debut, the middle would be half of what Blonde did relative to Flower Boy and the higher result would be half of Blonde's lead over Flower Boy, slightly trimmed down

[Deleted]

honestly to me if future can do 220k in this climate with a meh rollout, frank ocean can definitely clear that. i’m sure he’ll have physicals ready too that his fans will be happy to buy

[Deleted]

Frank Ocean has tried to release new music after success of his last album before, but somehow it has not been that good. Dropping the new album might work, but definitely it has to have some goods. I doubt he will better Blonde album though, so the new album everybody will buy vinyl(as Blonde sells 1000USD still), but eventually the new album will not be too special.

[enwhy]

Jul 11, 2022 11:41:36 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 11, 2022 11:30:12 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Speaking of Lizzo, it could be another hot take and I could be wrong, I think you guys are overestimating her and I don't think Special will be as big as some might think.

Talked about this in another server and we all agreed that her album isn't going #1. Cuz I Love You only peaked at #4 and since then, her hype has faded and her fanbase hasn't really grown a ton.

I'm with you that she might not go #1, but it's crazy to say that she has less hype today than when she released Cuz I Luv You. That was before Truth Hurts blew up... the general public knew nothing about Lizzo at that point in her career. Now she's an actual celebrity.

[kimberly]

After Minutes the last time you were this confident, you said Jack Harlow would easily grab #1 over Bad Bunny. I'd sit this one out if I were you, lol. there's really no guarantee Twitter hype for Frank Ocean will translate into streams, and it hasn't for any of the singles he's dropped since his last record. most of them failed to enter the Hot 100, iirc, and the ones that charted did so in the lower third.

I think Frank Ocean will have a nice, sizable album debut first week but I don't really see a massive album bomb for him—something in the realm of Kendrick's latest album would be a best case scenario for him on the Hot 100. I am doubtful he can top Harry's House, let alone rival Certified Lover Boy levels of chart domination.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

About Damn Time is already down to #4 on iTunes, so its expected boost from being on sale from the previous week might not be as large as many would have thought. RUTH has outsold it by more than a 2:1 margin on every single update on kworb's pop bars since the start of the tracking week.

[Darkest Hour]

Jul 11, 2022 23:01:55 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

RUTH has outsold it by more than a 2:1 margin on every single update on kworb's pop bars since the start of the tracking week.

Just a nitpick, but there are two versions of ADT charting on kworb's pop bars (currently #4 and #26).

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Oh. I missed that.

[loveless]

Jul 11, 2022 13:31:11 GMT -5 king_billboard_100 said:

Harry replace hiself at number one would be amazing

After all the debate about what song will overtake him these last few weeks it would at least be really funny.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Something in the Orange is getting airplay!!!

[After Minutes]

Jul 11, 2022 17:50:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

After Minutes the last time you were this confident, you said Jack Harlow would easily grab #1 over Bad Bunny. I'd sit this one out if I were you, lol. there's really no guarantee Twitter hype for Frank Ocean will translate into streams, and it hasn't for any of the singles he's dropped since his last record. most of them failed to enter the Hot 100, iirc, and the ones that charted did so in the lower third.

I think Frank Ocean will have a nice, sizable album debut first week but I don't really see a massive album bomb for him—something in the realm of Kendrick's latest album would be a best case scenario for him on the Hot 100. I am doubtful he can top Harry's House, let alone rival Certified Lover Boy levels of chart domination.

yeah but I was wrong, and the subject was different, so I don't see how that's relevant

[After Minutes]

And I'm absolutely not saying that it would rival CLB - I don't know where you got that from, that just seems unlikely based on how the album would be much less radio friendly and probably much shorter, so there wouldn't be potential for that level of success. I said that it would be one of the biggest bombs after that album, so it'd do something along the lines of MM&TBS or INLY

[Enigma.]

Jul 11, 2022 14:20:26 GMT -5 @lil14 said:

honestly to me if future can do 220k in this climate with a meh rollout, frank ocean can definitely clear that. i’m sure he’ll have physicals ready too that his fans will be happy to buy

50k of that came from two tracks (WFU, Puffin')

[thegreatdivine]

Jul 11, 2022 14:08:37 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Okay so I deleted all your wrong opinions and left the valid takes to make this discussion a little more constructive

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 12, 2022 2:27:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Something in the Orange is getting airplay!!!

This needed to happen like 2 months ago, lol. Way too late now for this to do anything meaningful.

[joshtheking]

Jul 12, 2022 2:27:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Something in the Orange is getting airplay!!!

Can't wait for this to peak in January 2023 (Actually not sarcasm cause this song is genuinely great anyway)

[thegreatdivine]

I don't know how anyone can use the fanbase of one artist to suggest that the fanbase of an entirely different artist will show support in a similar way. It's also just as ridiculous to use the numbers of any hip-hop artist (who typically do well on streaming whenever they release albums, including the c/d-list rappers) to compare with an artist who makes experimental/psychedelic pop music and who hasn't released an album since 2016.

Future is an established streaming act who has been releasing music throughout the streaming era. Him doing over 200k with his latest album in no way means Frank Ocean will have a similarly easier path to the same kind of success, even with physicals available.

It's like some of you haven't seen enough major mainstream acts underperform with their latest albums over the last 12 months to still be having such lofty commercial expectations for someone who has never seen enough success to even be considered a major mainstream act commercially.

[Darkest Hour]

Jul 12, 2022 5:39:08 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

Can't wait for this to peak in January 2023 (Actually not sarcasm cause this song is genuinely great anyway)

Fr tho this is not promoted there at all (nor in AAA radio where it should).

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I’d be afraid to make any sort of prediction here the way heads get ripped off when people don’t agree. Sheesh. If you’re all so sure he’s wrong about Frank Ocean’s next album, wait until it comes out and say “Told you”.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 12, 2022 6:26:42 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

Jul 12, 2022 5:39:08 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

Can't wait for this to peak in January 2023 (Actually not sarcasm cause this song is genuinely great anyway)

Fr tho this is not promoted there at all (nor in AAA radio where it should).

They should have struck while the iron was hot and sent it there in May. If they did that, who knows with how horrid the charts look right now, it might already be in the Top 25 of the Hot 100.

[After Minutes]

Jul 12, 2022 5:47:16 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

It's also just as ridiculous to use the numbers of any hip-hop artist (who typically do well on streaming whenever they release albums, including the c/d-list rappers) to compare with an artist who makes experimental/psychedelic pop music and who hasn't released an album since

I guess that's what someone who doesn't listen to or pay any attention to hip-hop can believe, but it's a wrong assumption to make.

Frank Ocean has a primarily urban, rap-listening audience. Denying that is like saying that Kanye fans are Christian music listeners because he released Jesus is King, or that Drake fans are primarily the dance music crowd because his last album was that genre. The sound of the music barely matters if at all when determining an artist's fanbase. Their cultural perception is much more relevant, and Frank Ocean is perceived as an icon in urban music, due to his beginnings in OF and frequent collaboration with rappers or R&B singers.

If you look at the profiles or magazines that are writing about potential new music from Frank Ocean, they're mostly urban-adjacent. Rap reported the news about his potential new music, not alt press.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

all this arguing for the over Frank Ocean POSSIBLY releasing an album...

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 12, 2022 8:11:07 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

all this arguing for the over Frank Ocean POSSIBLY releasing an album...

We could use Frank Ocean or Rihanna dropping an album soon. These charts are so horrid, I’ll hold out hope for anything that will create a major shakeup in the Top 25.

[Zeebz]

Jul 12, 2022 8:11:07 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

all this arguing for the over Frank Ocean POSSIBLY releasing an album...

Honestly. How exhausting.

That said, this discussion is off topic as Frank Ocean is not currently impacting this week’s Hot 100. If y’all insist on continuing this discussion, feel free to discuss his chart prospects by creating your own thread in “Your Opinion Please” (or taking this to his respective artist thread.) Please be mindful to stay on topic and discuss current releases that are impacting/may impact the current Hot 100 as dated above.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 07 » / « 12 »

1(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 114.64(+0.12) -
2(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 107.75(-0.05)
3(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 100.94(-0.01)
4(+1) Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug 66.65(-0.20)
5(-1) Latto - Big Energy 66.63(-0.54)
6(=) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 62.27(-0.08)
7(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 61.72(-0.11)

8(=) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 58.95(-0.60)
9(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 58.45(+0.30)
10(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 53.66(+0.25)

20(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal with God) 40.22(+1.03)

25(+2) Tim Mcgraw - 7500 OBO 34.69(+1.26)

55(+5) Lil Durk - What Happened To Virgil 20.61(+1.07)

69(+7) Cardi B - Hot Ish f/Ye & Lil Durk 15.20(+0.97)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

anyway let's talk about REAL STARS who've actually confirmed new music