Billboard Hot 100: 08/27/2022

[platinumg]

Does anyone have a digital sales prediction for Super Freaky Girl without possible website sales? I have about 25k from iTunes alone. I want my predictions to essentially exclude website sales completely until we know for sure.

[Music Fan]

Aug 17, 2022 11:33:10 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Aug 17, 2022 10:41:10 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 08 » / « 17 »

48(+3) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 23.52(+0.71)

Has You Proof gotten a Pop/AC/Hot AC push? I could see it going back to the top 10 early this fall if it does

It was serviced when it came out. But, Wasted on You is currently being pushed at pop. I think it's current rank is somewhere in the low 20s.

[big2000]

Wasted on You is approaching top 25 on pop radio and just hit top 20 on hot AC radio. I wonder if the decent success of it will convince them to push another song to those formats.

[Elusive Chanteuse]

Aug 17, 2022 14:04:41 GMT -5 big2000 said:

Wasted on You is approaching top 25 on pop radio and just hit top 20 on hot AC radio. I wonder if the decent success of it will convince them to push another song to those formats.

Pretty sure they’re gearing up a push for You Proof as well. I’d be shocked if they didn’t.

[mms82]

Aug 17, 2022 14:08:14 GMT -5 Elusive Chanteuse said:

Aug 17, 2022 14:04:41 GMT -5 big2000 said:

Wasted on You is approaching top 25 on pop radio and just hit top 20 on hot AC radio. I wonder if the decent success of it will convince them to push another song to those formats.

Pretty sure they’re gearing up a push for You Proof as well. I’d be shocked if they didn’t.

You Proof is his poppiest song in forever and would be a hit in the formats — I bet it does well and notches a bunch more weeks in the H100 Top 10

[mms82]

Aug 12, 2022 8:11:35 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I just get the sense that this song is like so much of what Nicki Minaj and Drake have been up to with the obvious on-the nose samples carrying the songs.

Is there another example of this from Drake recently besides Stayin Alive? I think that was more DJ Khaled hokeyness

[nathanalbright]

The post itself you quoted also referenced Super Freaky Girl, another on the nose sampling choice (which is, it should be noted, not an unusual choice for Nicki Minaj in light of her success with Anaconda), and the conversation that post was a part of referenced other songs ranging from Cold Heart to Big Energy as being other like-minded examples of the case.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 17, 2022 13:57:38 GMT -5 Music Fan said:

Aug 17, 2022 11:33:10 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Has You Proof gotten a Pop/AC/Hot AC push? I could see it going back to the top 10 early this fall if it does

It was serviced when it came out. But, Wasted on You is currently being pushed at pop. I think it's current rank is somewhere in the low 20s.

Rising to #26 at Pop and #20 at Hot AC in the last weekly charts.

[ephelia]

Aug 17, 2022 14:18:26 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Aug 12, 2022 8:11:35 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I just get the sense that this song is like so much of what Nicki Minaj and Drake have been up to with the obvious on-the nose samples carrying the songs.

Is there another example of this from Drake recently besides Stayin Alive? I think that was more DJ Khaled hokeyness

Way 2 Sexy sampling I'm Too Sexy last year

[wavey.]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Actually, all versions of it are now on sale on her webstore.

[degen]

Glad she’s pulling out all the works!! Why the f**k not! Still in the game 13 years after her first chart appearance and aiming for a #1 Debut with a solo song! Queen Thignz!

[Choco]

Didn't somebody here say Nicki claimed no remixes were coming so the song could stand on it's own and grow with the GP?

Lmao.

I don't fault her though. She's close to #1. Her first one that isn't a remix or a collab with a pedophile.

[Caviar]

Lizzo/Bey/Nicki. Will there ever be a time when 3 black solo females replace each other at #1 again? Iconic.

[fridayteenage]

Aug 17, 2022 23:10:21 GMT -5 Choco said:

Didn't somebody here say Nicki claimed no remixes were coming so the song could stand on it's own and grow with the GP?

Lmao.

I don't fault her though. She's close to #1. Her first one that isn't a remix or a collab with a pedophile.

i'm surprised the original song wasn't even top 10.

though it does look like rick james was accused of raping a 15 year old. and kidnapped and assaulted other women.

[iHype.]

"Billie Eilish" (song) is now charting at Urban radio.

Which pop girl will be the next to have a 2022 song named after them?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Aug 18, 2022 1:22:21 GMT -5 iHype. said:

"Billie Eilish" (song) is now charting at Urban radio.

Which pop girl will be the next to have a 2022 song named after them?

Kate Bush is next

[mms82]

Aug 18, 2022 0:04:32 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Lizzo/Bey/Nicki. Will there ever be a time when 3 black solo females replace each other at #1 again? Iconic.

has that ever happened before?

[jenglisbe]

Aug 18, 2022 8:09:08 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Aug 18, 2022 0:04:32 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Lizzo/Bey/Nicki. Will there ever be a time when 3 black solo females replace each other at #1 again? Iconic.

has that ever happened before?

I don't think it has. There have been times we were close, but never 3 solo in a row:

In 1979 we had Donna Summer, Anita Ward, Donna Summer, but that was 1 Donna Summer song returning to #1. That run was followed by Chic at #1, who had Black females singing but was a group with males.
In 1987 we had Atlantic Starr as a group with a Black female singing lead, followed by Lisa Lisa & Cult Jam (Lisa is of Puerto Rican descent which is a discussion), with Whitney then following.
If not for "Ice Ice Baby" being #1 for 1 week in between, Janet, Mariah, and Whitney would have done it in 1990 lol.
In 1991 we had Loleatta Holloway on "Good Vibrations" followed by Mariah and then Karyn White.
In 1995 we had Mariah, Whitney, Mariah in a run of #1 hits (so, only two women but 3 different songs, and "One Sweet Day" was not solo).
In 1998 we had Monica, Lauryn Hill, and then the group Divine with consecutive #1s.

[upsidedown]

Can someone tell me how SFG is in contention for #1 right now? Is it just because the Top 10 is kind of "weak" in terms of nothing exploding?

The song just got released last week, so not much radio airplay. Its streams are fine, but it's not #1 and is only getting about a little over 1M a day. And she has a million versions on iTunes but sales don't account for that much anymore?

[Groovy]

Aug 18, 2022 8:38:43 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

Can someone tell me how SFG is in contention for #1 right now? Is it just because the Top 10 is kind of "weak" in terms of nothing exploding?

The song just got released last week, so not much radio airplay. Its streams are fine, but it's not #1 and is only getting about a little over 1M a day. And she has a million versions on iTunes but sales don't account for that much anymore?

I guess, the remix is helping but it's also held up on streaming even with the radio being a bit slow. 

[gs]

Aug 18, 2022 8:38:43 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

Can someone tell me how SFG is in contention for #1 right now? Is it just because the Top 10 is kind of "weak" in terms of nothing exploding?

The song just got released last week, so not much radio airplay. Its streams are fine, but it's not #1 and is only getting about a little over 1M a day. And she has a million versions on iTunes but sales don't account for that much anymore?

As It Was is the other contender and it has under 240 points, which is very weak yeah, so it doesn't really have to be huge to go #1 in the first place

But it has over 30K+ DSP sales and 30K+ website sales including these new versions

[mms82]

Does As It Was look likely to return to number one next week? Are there any other contenders or big debuts we know of?

[fridayteenage]

Time for bb to pull a last minute 'blackout debuts at #2' on nicki and change the rules last minute.

[rimetm]

The only rule change I can see them doing in the near future in regards to sales wouldn’t affect this race: closing the loophole in regards to physical sales still allowing 4 copies per customer. With how razor-tight the margins have been, “Bad Decisions” absolutely only made top 10 thanks to that technicality. The fanbase doesn’t have the people eager/able to be rallied otherwise: more than 15,000 CDs were sold to less than 9,000 customers.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 08 » / « 18 »

1(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 109.89(-1.70)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 98.93(-0.14)
3(=) Nicky Youre & Dazy - Sunroof 90.80(+0.92)
4(=) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 86.91(+0.19)
5(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal with God) 82.30(+0.65)
6(=) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 75.71(+0.65)
7(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 69.37(-0.99)
8(=) Post Malone - I Like You (A Happier Song) [feat. Doja Cat] 58.06(+0.63)
9(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 55.93(-0.22)
10(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 51.25(-0.21)

20(=) Chris Young - At The End Of A Bar w/Tenpenny 38.46(+0.74)

22(=) Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely 37.45(+0.73)

43(+1) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 25.58(+1.08)

45(+1) Doja Cat - Vegas (From the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack ELVIS) 24.60(+0.73)

-(-) Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 4.20(+0.75)

-(-) Mora - Tus Lagrimas f/Sech 1.29(+0.77) +

[Choco]

Yeah I'd like for the physical sales loophole to be closed too but otherwise I think sales are fair right now.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 08/17/22

1(=) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 1,622,200 (+263)
2(=) Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 1,107,682 (-18,465)
3(=) Bad Bunny, Chencho Corleone - Me Porto Bonito 1,063,782 (+7,936)
4(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 1,001,521 (+2,322)
5(=) Bad Bunny - Tití Me Preguntó 928,551 (+6,429)
6(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) 826,087 (-19,489)
7(=) Drake, 21 Savage - Jimmy Cooks 819,236 (+5,399)
8(=) Joji - Glimpse of Us 753,621 (-2,583)
9(=) Post Malone, Doja Cat - I Like You (A Happier Song) 698,026 (+8,274)
10(=) Bad Bunny - Efecto 670,310 (+1,787)

Others:
11(=) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 639,396 (+1,821)
12(=) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 628,080 (+5,375)
13(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 616,363 (+7,779)
14(=) Doja Cat - Vegas 607,085 (+1,259)
15(+1) Future, Drake, Tems - WAIT FOR U 599,321 (+5,282)
16(-1) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 598,924 (-6,139)
18(=) Bad Bunny - Moscow Mule 576,859 (-163)
19(+1) Yung Gravy - Betty (Get Money) 561,638 (-2,938)
20(-3) DJ Khaled, Drake, Lil Baby - STAYING ALIVE 561,223 (-23,002)
21(-2) Lizzo - About Damn Time 560,538 (-6,295)
22(=) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 529,703 (-4,385)
23(=) The Weeknd - Die For You 505,808 (-25,526)
24(=) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 505,221 (-2,258)
25(+1) Bad Bunny, Bomba Estéreo - Ojitos Lindos 493,405 (-1,915)
26(-1) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 493,018 (-2,375)
27(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 490,861 (-1,751)
28(=) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 471,048 (+8,780)
29(=) Bad Bunny, Rauw Alejandro - Party 465,571 (+5,165)
30(=) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 456,751 (+4,524)
31(=) Luke Combs - The Kind of Love We Make 451,735 (+814)
32(=) Bad Bunny - Después de la Playa 443,576 (-2,048)
33(+3) Nardo Wick - Dah Dah DahDah 11 431,592 (+14,664)
34(-1) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 428,775 (+6,003)
36(+5) KAROL G - PROVENZA 418,384 (+11,013)
37(+1) Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina 416,123 (+5,187)
39(=) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 410,988 (+2,396)
40(-5) Bizarap, Quevedo - Quevedo: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 52 410,511 (-8,132)
42(+2) Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Tarot 404,648 (+4,299)
43(-3) ROSALÍA - DESPECHÁ 398,548 (-9,723)
44(-1) Beyoncé - ALIEN SUPERSTAR 394,711 (-9,263)
46(+1) Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 387,931 (+737)
47(-2) Baby Keem - HONEST 385,262 (-5,985)
48(=) Ghost - Mary on a Cross 373,898 (+7,841)
50(+2) d4vd - Romantic Homicide 364,752 (+10,113)
51(=) Tears for Fears - Everybody Wants to Rule the World 358,653 (+3,355)
52(+3) Bad Bunny, Tony Dize - La Corriente 354,358 (+4,310)
53(=) Metallica - Master of Puppets 351,888 (-2,253)
55(-5) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 350,587 (-6,820)
58(-1) Charlie Puth, Jung Kook - Left and Right 340,910 (-5,311)
60(-1) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 335,025 (-6,223)
63(+2) Steve Lacy - Static 329,554 (+1,376)
69(=) Bad Bunny - Un Ratito 320,995 (+645)
70(+2) Pharrell Williams, 21 Savage, Tyler, The Creator - Cash In Cash Out 320,216 (+3,101)
72(-1) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 315,859 (-2,930)
73(+1) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 314,611 (+1,123)
75(+7) Joji - SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK 311,364 (+3,998)
76(-14) benny blanco, BTS, Snoop Dogg - Bad Decisions 310,653 (-23,919)
78(-1) NAV, Lil Baby, Travis Scott - Never Sleep 309,606 (-2,944)
81(+4) Drake - Sticky 306,927 (+931)
82(+4) Post Malone, Roddy Ricch - Cooped Up 305,722 (+618)
84(+3) Bad Bunny - Neverita 305,299 (+2,085)
90(-6) Jax - Victoria's Secret 294,682 (-11,597)
93(-18) Rod Wave - Alone 292,460 (-20,969)

101(-13) Rod Wave, Jack Harlow - Yungen 284,269 (-17,588)
102(-6) Central Cee - Doja 284,208 (-10,023)
103(+1) AJR - World's Smallest Violin 283,747 (+606)
104(+7) Chris Brown - Under the Influence 283,134 (+7,606)
107(-29) Megan Thee Stallion - Her 280,458 (-32,075)
108(-9) Megan Thee Stallion, Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie 279,889 (-11,965)
110(-3) The Weeknd, Gesaffelstein - I Was Never There 277,818 (-3,155)
111(+1) Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9 272,762 (-1,067)
114(+5) Marshmello, Khalid - Numb 270,365 (+2,933)
116(-6) Lil Baby - Freestyle 268,786 (-6,795)
119(-1) Rosa Linn - SNAP 267,532 (-5,472)
130(=) Frank Ocean - Novacane 258,676 (+1,636)
137(+2) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 254,435 (+2,174)
140(+6) Ruth B. - Dandelions 251,999 (+1,616)
142(-13) Beyoncé - ENERGY 251,588 (-5,472)
145(+8) $uicideboy$ - Antarctica 250,923 (+3,013)
148(-7) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 249,321 (-2,525)
154(-19) Billie Eilish - TV 248,157 (-6,084)
159(+7) Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely 245,173 (+3,583)
165(-9) Mr.Kitty - After Dark 243,328 (-2,392)
166(-11) Mac Miller, The Temper Trap - Love Lost 242,916 (-3,253)
167(+16) $uicideboy$ - Matte Black 242,661 (+9,059)
168(+1) Quavo, Takeoff - HOTEL LOBBY (Unc and Phew) 242,416 (+3,078)
170(-2) Harry Styles - Satellite 241,357 (+1,588)
176(+1) Nate Smith - Whiskey On You 237,511 (+2,858)
183(-4) Elley Duhé - MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 234,082 (±0)
186(+6) Bailey Zimmerman - Fall in Love 232,648 (+1,530)
190(-15) Beyoncé - CHURCH GIRL 230,996 (-4,977)
191(-2) Armani White - BILLIE EILISH. 230,844 (-1,871)
194(+4) Pierce the Veil, Kellin Quinn - King for a Day 228,823 (+1,227)
196(-16) Conan Gray - Memories 228,086 (-5,867)
199(re-entry) Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around 226,607

[badrobot]

I’m starting to wonder if Kate Bush is gonna end up having one of those songs that lingers for a year. The fact that she’s still growing at radio is so impressive.

[wavey.]

Posted at #2 whew good lord praise him🙏🏾