Predict the Peaks: August 2022 Edition

[recordyear]

Feels like the songs from previous edition have peaked already so we can do a new one now.
Using this week's chart, the falling songs removed. The peak refers to Billboard's Country Airplay chart.

[] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[] Luke Bryan - Country On
[] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[] Lee Brice - Soul
[] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[] Brett Young - You Didn't
[] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[] Cody Johnson - Human
[] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[] Dan + Shay - You
[] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[] Matt Stell - Man Made
[] George Birge - Mind On You
[] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[] Miranda Lambert - Strange
[] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

[recordyear]

Previous Edition

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}
[1] Chase Rice feat. Florida Georgia Line - Drinkin' Beer. Talkin. God. Amen
[1] Dan + Shay - Glad You Exist
[1] Luke Bryan - Waves
[1] Justin Moore - We Didn't Have Much
[1] Thomas Rhett - Country Again
[1] Lainey Wilson - Things A Man Oughta Know
[10] Keith Urban duet with P!nk - One Too Many
[1] Scotty McCreery - You Time
[9] Old Dominion - I Was On A Boat That Day
[1] Lee Brice - Memory I Don't Mess With
[1] Jameson Rodgers feat. Luke Combs - Cold Beer Calling My Name
[1] Elvie Shane - My Boy
[15] Carly Pearce - Next Girl
[1] Jimmie Allen & Brad Paisley - Freedom Was A Highway
[1] Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood - If I Didn't Love You
[13] Lady A - Like A Lady
[2] Kenny Chesney - Knowing You
[2] Ryan Hurd with Maren Morris - Chasing After You
[5] Jon Pardi - Tequila Little Time
[14] Priscilla Block - Just About Over You
[1] Michael Ray - Whiskey And Rain
[20] Callista Clark - It's 'Cause I Am
[1] Dustin Lynch feat. MacKenzie Porter - Thinking 'Bout You
[1] Zac Brown Band - Same Boat
[1] Chris Stapleton - You Should Probably Leave
[11] Russell Dickerson - Home Sweet
[1] Kelsea Ballerini feat. Kenny Chesney - Half of My Hometown
[1] Elle King & Miranda Lambert - Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)
[1] Parker McCollum - To Be Loved By You
[1] Walker Hayes - Fancy Like
[11] HARDY - Give Heaven Some Hell
[5] Eric Church - Heart On Fire
[29] Garth Brooks - That's What Cowboys Do
[1] Jordan Davis feat. Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt
[47] Matt Stell - That Ain't Me No More
[1] Morgan Wallen - Sand In My Boots
[32] Brantley Gilbert feat. Toby Keith & HARDY - The Worst Country Song of All Time
[42] Nelly & Florida Georgia Line - Lil Bit
[41] Riley Green - If It Wasn't For Trucks
[43] Larry Fleet - Where I Find God
[29] Lauren Alaina duet with Jon Pardi - Getting Over Him
[37] Brett Young - Not Yet
[34] Tenille Arts - Back Then, Right Now
[33] Brothers Osborne - I'm Not For Everyone
[37] Caitlyn Smith feat. Old Dominion - I Can't
[41] Chris Lane - Fill Them Boots
[49] Niko Moon - No Sad Songs
[42] Drew Parker - While You're Gone
[41] Darius Rucker - My Masterpiece
[25] Toby Keith - Old School
[53] Dillon Carmichael - Hot Beer
[47] Cam - Till There's Nothing Left
[52] Chris Bandi - Would Have Loved Her

.indulgecountry 22/53 = 41.5%
raylatch98 20/53 = 37.7%
jab820 20/53 = 37.7%
🌺CountryLineDancer 20/53 = 37.7%
lady𝓐fan 19/53 = 35.8%

[.indulgecountry]

[1] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[2] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[1] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[1] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[3] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[1] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[9] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[1] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[1] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[11] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[1] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[1] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[1] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[4] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[1] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[1] Luke Bryan - Country On
[12] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[2] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[14] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[21] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[7] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[1] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[1] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[1] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[1] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[15] Lee Brice - Soul
[1] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[16] Brett Young - You Didn't
[1] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[1] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[27] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[8] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[26] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[29] Cody Johnson - Human
[1] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[27] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[1] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[17] Dan + Shay - You
[6] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[45] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[34] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[43] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[1] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[33] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[1] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[19] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[25] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[30] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[47] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[42] Matt Stell - Man Made
[53] George Birge - Mind On You
[54] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[20] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[43] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[37] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[1] Miranda Lambert - Strange
[1] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[54] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On


A few of these have peaked already (Maren Morris, Ryan Hurd) or I believe they've peaked (like I don't see LBT reaching a new peak from where they debuted).

[jab820]

[1] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[1] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[1] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[1] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[1] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[1] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[9] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[1] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[1] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[8] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[1] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[1] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[1] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[1] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[1] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[1] Luke Bryan - Country On
[11] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[3] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[1] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[14] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[3] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[1] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[1] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[1] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[1] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[1] Lee Brice - Soul
[1] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[19] Brett Young - You Didn't
[1] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[12] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[15] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[1] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[1] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[9] Cody Johnson - Human
[1] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[20] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[10] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[1] Dan + Shay - You
[1] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[35] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[39] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[40] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[1] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[33] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[1] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[1] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[1] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[25] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[43] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[40] Matt Stell - Man Made
[39] George Birge - Mind On You
[48] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[1] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[39] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[44] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[8] Miranda Lambert - Strange
[20] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[42] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

I love doing these. It would be fun to add a component of predicting a multi-week, or some sort of formula where we can "double" one or two predictions that we feel especially confident in and earn/lose double points.

Zach Bryan was hard to predict because despite his song blowing up on every other format, country radio will certainly not let it go far until he's officially signed and it's serviced. Hailey Whitters was another hard one to predict, since the song had such organic interest before its impact date and now that it's officially impacted it has seemingly stalled. Chris Janson would normally peak higher but considering he just left his label, the single probably doesn't have much time left. It felt nice to feel sure that Lainey Wilson, Gabby Barrett, and Carly Pearce were all going #1. 

[lady𝓐fan]

Aug 14, 2022 4:03:25 GMT -5 recordyear said:

Previous Edition
.indulgecountry 22/53 = 41.5%
raylatch98 20/53 = 37.7%
jab820 20/53 = 37.7%
🌺CountryLineDancer 20/53 = 37.7%
lady𝓐fan 19/53 = 35.8%

Wow I really flopped on that one 

[1] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[2] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[2] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[1] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[3] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[1] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[9] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[1] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[4] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[1] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[1] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[1] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[1] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[5] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[1] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[1] Luke Bryan - Country On
[11] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[13] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[1] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[22] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[3] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[2] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[1] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[2] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[3] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[17] Lee Brice - Soul
[1] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[19] Brett Young - You Didn't
[1] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[1] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[3] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[1] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[4] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[2] Cody Johnson - Human
[2] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[25] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[35] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[2] Dan + Shay - You
[3] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[45] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[33] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[45] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[1] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[38] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[1] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[20] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[8] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[13] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[41] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[48] Matt Stell - Man Made
[37] George Birge - Mind On You
[47] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[1] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[55] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[37] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[17] Miranda Lambert - Strange (I was more optimistic about this one 2 months ago)
[7] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[56] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

[🌺CountryLineDancer]

[1] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[1] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[1] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[1] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[2] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[1] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[9] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[1] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[3] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[6] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[3] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[1] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[1] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[1] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[1] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[1] Luke Bryan - Country On
[9] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[1] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[1] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[21] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[1] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[14] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[1] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[1] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[1] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[11] Lee Brice - Soul
[1] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[28] Brett Young - You Didn't
[1] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[1] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[23] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[1] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[10] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[1] Cody Johnson - Human
[1] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[21] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[13] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[20] Dan + Shay - You
[2] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[39] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[25] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[43] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[1] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[38] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[1] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[4] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[14] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[44] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[39] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[29] Matt Stell - Man Made
[51] George Birge - Mind On You
[49] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[1] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[43] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[37] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[11] Miranda Lambert - Strange
[17] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[54] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

recordyear  Chris Bandi peaked at #52.

[.indulgecountry]

Aug 15, 2022 13:44:18 GMT -5 jab820 said:

[44] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah

Aug 15, 2022 14:27:14 GMT -5 lady𝓐fan said:

[56] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

This always seems to happen at least once or twice every time we do this... but y'all both of these ones are already wrong, lol.

[recordyear]

I try to give away the easy ones if y'all care about chart at all but y'all didn't seize them lol

[jab820]

Aug 15, 2022 21:05:04 GMT -5 .indulgecountry said:

Aug 15, 2022 13:44:18 GMT -5 jab820 said:

[44] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah

Aug 15, 2022 14:27:14 GMT -5 lady𝓐fan said:

[56] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

This always seems to happen at least once or twice every time we do this... but y'all both of these ones are already wrong, lol.

Damnit, I tried *so* hard with the bottom 1/3 of the chart not to do this. Lmao. 

[recordyear]

I actually forgot the thread for some time, and still one of the songs here (Mind On You) isn't close to peaking on country radio, so I will fill that one later. However, since it is #14 on Billboard already which is higher than everyone's prediction, no one will get the point for that song.

I won't post any more editions after this. Someone who is interested can do the work themselves. Hope I didn't make any mistakes in checking the peaks and against your predictions.

(Also still cannot believe The Kind Of Love We Make peaked at #2 on Billboard)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Peaks}[1] Kane Brown - Like I Love Country Music
[1] Chris Young with Mitchell Tenpenny - At The End Of A Bar
[1] Jon Pardi - Last Night Lonely
[2] Luke Combs - The Kind Of Love We Make
[1] Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love
[2] Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You
[9] Maren Morris - Circles Around This Town
[1] Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina
[6] Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story
[3] Jackson Dean - Don't Come Lookin'
[4] Ingrid Andress with Sam Hunt - Wishful Drinking
[1] Morgan Wallen - You Proof
[1] Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9
[14] Old Dominion - No Hard Feelings
[1] Thomas Rhett ft. Riley Green - Half Of Me
[3] Luke Bryan - Country On
[1] Jelly Roll - Son Of A Sinner
[12] Zac Brown Band - Out In The Middle
[17] Dustin Lynch - Party Mode
[17] Frank Ray - Country'd Look Good On You
[16] Russell Dickerson & Jake Scott - She Likes It
[6] Gabby Barrett - Pick Me Up
[1] Bailey Zimmerman - Fall In Love
[1] Jimmie Allen - Down Home
[22] Kelsea Ballerini - Heartfirst
[19] Lee Brice - Soul
[1] Jordan Davis - What My World Spins Around
[10] Brett Young - You Didn't
[5] Jason Aldean - That's What Tequila Does
[1] Nate Smith - Whiskey On You
[26] Priscilla Block - My Bar
[15] Sam Hunt - Water Under The Bridge
[25] Chris Stapleton - Joy Of My Life
[8] Cody Johnson - Human
[2] Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck
[18] Joe Nichols - Good Day For Living
[32] Michael Ray - Holy Water
[3] Dan + Shay - You
[11] Keith Urban - Brown Eyes Baby
[45] Kameron Marlowe - Giving You Up
[29] Randy Houser - Note To Self
[30] Dillon Carmichael - Son Of A
[2] Dierks Bentley - Gold
[38] Brett Eldredge - Songs About You
[2] Carly Pearce - What He Didn't Do
[34] Eric Church - Doing Life With Me
[29] Walker Hayes - Y'all Life
[17] Hailey Whitters - Everything She Ain't
[52] Chris Janson - Keys To The Country
[36] Matt Stell - Man Made
[?] George Birge - Mind On You
[20] Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange
[3] Corey Kent - Wild As Her
[52] Ryan Griffin - Salt, Lime & Tequila
[37] Little Big Town - Hell Yeah
[43] Miranda Lambert - Strange
[52] Midland ft. Jon Pardi - Longneck Way To Go
[54] Ryan Hurd - Pass It On

.indulgecountry 14/58
jab820 12/58
lady𝓐fan 13/58
🌺CountryLineDancer 15/58