Billboard Hot 100: 09/10/2022

[Taylor.]

69(+85) Taylor Swift - august 345,782 (+107,185)

I wonder if this can sneak a day or two in the top 10 this week.

[big2000]

Radio just loves to hold onto songs past their expiration date. There are currently 4 songs in the Kworb top 50 that are over a year old: Stay at #9, Heat Waves at #12, Levitating at #38, and Save Your Tears at #41. The oldest song on the chart, Blinding Lights, is still at #58 (it’s been on the chart for 956 days). Ever since 2020 there has seemed to be a trend of radio refusing to let go of songs, leading to long runs at the top and more difficult climbs for other songs.

[nathanalbright]

Aug 30, 2022 11:19:04 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

69(+85) Taylor Swift - august 345,782 (+107,185)

I wonder if this can sneak a day or two in the top 10 this week.

Looking forward to the inevitable streaming rise of September.

[Taylor.]

Aug 30, 2022 11:42:36 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Aug 30, 2022 11:19:04 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

I wonder if this can sneak a day or two in the top 10 this week.

Looking forward to the inevitable streaming rise of September.

I completely forgot that cover existed and that it went pretty viral on TikTok last September. Let's see how it does this year.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 08 » / « 30 »

1(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 96.95(-1.38)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 96.53(-0.33)
3(=) Nicky Youre & Dazy - Sunroof 92.89(+0.26)
4(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal with God) 84.23(-0.38)

5(=) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 80.56(-1.97)
6(=) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 80.54(+0.84)
7(=) Post Malone - I Like You (A Happier Song) [feat. Doja Cat] 64.17(+0.26)
8(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 59.75(-0.66)
9(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 54.02(-0.48)
10(=) Future - Wait For U f/Drake 50.43(-0.16) -

19(+1) Justin Moore - With A Woman You Love 38.42(+1.26)

23(=) Mitchell Tenpenny - Truth About You 36.33(+0.72)

25(=) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 34.42(+0.82)

31(+1) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 31.15(+0.83)

64(+12) Elton John & Britney Spears - Hold Me Closer 18.25(+2.64)

69(+3) Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 17.12(+1.09)

[SPRΞΞ]

Aug 30, 2022 6:02:39 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The fact that Stay is still that high on radio is ridiculous. I think if it had a fast rise fast fall type of run like BMS, it would have a better legacy. Of course, it would have finished with less weeks on the chart, but no one would be calling it radio driven. No one calls G4u or IB (Stay's main contemporaries) radio driven.

isn't Stay the fastest song to get to "whatever new milestone" of all time on streaming?

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 30, 2022 12:08:02 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Aug 30, 2022 6:02:39 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The fact that Stay is still that high on radio is ridiculous. I think if it had a fast rise fast fall type of run like BMS, it would have a better legacy. Of course, it would have finished with less weeks on the chart, but no one would be calling it radio driven. No one calls G4u or IB (Stay's main contemporaries) radio driven.

isn't Stay the fastest song to get to "whatever new milestone" of all time on streaming?

Yes, on Spotify, and Stay's legacy should have been as a major streaming hit. However, radio held on to it way too long, and by the time the holiday season was over, Stay was viewed as a radio-driven hit by many on here.

[SPRΞΞ]

Aug 30, 2022 12:19:44 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 30, 2022 12:08:02 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

isn't Stay the fastest song to get to "whatever new milestone" of all time on streaming?

Yes, on Spotify, and Stay's legacy should have been as a major streaming hit. However, radio held on to it way too long, and by the time the holiday season was over, Stay was viewed as a radio-driven hit by many on here.

and that matters because....? None of our opinions mean anything in the real world. In the real world, Stay is still the fastest gaining song on streaming ever. A couple of random commentors on a forum doesn't change that.

[mms82]

Yeah the legacy of Stay was oh that was a fun/annoying (depending on your take) big song in the early 2020s not wow what a radio driven hit whose legacy is forever tarnished

[jenglisbe]

Aug 30, 2022 11:21:37 GMT -5 big2000 said:

Radio just loves to hold onto songs past their expiration date. There are currently 4 songs in the Kworb top 50 that are over a year old: Stay at #9, Heat Waves at #12, Levitating at #38, and Save Your Tears at #41. The oldest song on the chart, Blinding Lights, is still at #58 (it’s been on the chart for 956 days). Ever since 2020 there has seemed to be a trend of radio refusing to let go of songs, leading to long runs at the top and more difficult climbs for other songs.

For one, ever since Billboard got BDS data in the early 90s radio has held onto songs (and likely were before, we just didn't have the data to see it). This isn't a new thing from 2020. What streaming data has shown is us that people do listen to songs for a really long time, and that has perhaps in part led to radio hanging onto songs even longer. You mention there being 4 songs in the kworb top 50 over a year old. Guess what? In the top 50 of the Billboard Streaming Songs chart, there are currently five songs that have been on the chart for over a year: "Heat Waves" (#22 in its 74th week charting), "Save Your Tears" (#39 in its 80th week charting), "Tennessee Whiskey" (#43 in its 56th week charting, though it has been hanging around for several years), "Stay" (#47 in its 57th week charting), and "Blinding Lights" (#50 in its 111th week charting). So, the same songs you are criticizing radio for hanging onto are the same ones people are apparently still streaming.

(Additionally "Sweater Weather" is #48 in its 22nd week of charting, but it started a resurgence 2 years ago due to TikTok and has been hanging around for a long time.)

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 30, 2022 12:54:06 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Aug 30, 2022 11:21:37 GMT -5 big2000 said:

Radio just loves to hold onto songs past their expiration date. There are currently 4 songs in the Kworb top 50 that are over a year old: Stay at #9, Heat Waves at #12, Levitating at #38, and Save Your Tears at #41. The oldest song on the chart, Blinding Lights, is still at #58 (it’s been on the chart for 956 days). Ever since 2020 there has seemed to be a trend of radio refusing to let go of songs, leading to long runs at the top and more difficult climbs for other songs.

For one, ever since Billboard got BDS data in the early 90s radio has held onto songs (and likely were before, we just didn't have the data to see it). This isn't a new thing from 2020. What streaming data has shown is us that people do listen to songs for a really long time, and that has perhaps in part led to radio hanging onto songs even longer. You mention there being 4 songs in the kworb top 50 over a year old. Guess what? In the top 50 of the Billboard Streaming Songs chart, there are currently five songs that have been on the chart for over a year: "Heat Waves" (#22 in its 74th week charting), "Save Your Tears" (#39 in its 80th week charting), "Tennessee Whiskey" (#43 in its 56th week charting, though it has been hanging around for several years), "Stay" (#47 in its 57th week charting), and "Blinding Lights" (#50 in its 111th week charting). So, the same songs you are criticizing radio for hanging onto are the same ones people are apparently still streaming.

(Additionally "Sweater Weather" is #48 in its 22nd week of charting, but it started a resurgence 2 years ago due to TikTok and has been hanging around for a long time.)

Not really. In 2014, Happy peaked with the highest kWorb radio audience ever after only 69 days. I don't think Happy made it to a year on kWorb radio. After that, peak radio audience got traded off for longevity. Radio holding onto songs wasn't a real problem until we got to Girls Like You and High Hopes, which were released in late 2018, and spent over 950 days on the kWorb radio chart, before falling off in 2021. Recently, we had Someone You Loved and Circles chart for over 1000 days, before falling off earlier this year.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 30, 2022 13:02:21 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 30, 2022 12:54:06 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

For one, ever since Billboard got BDS data in the early 90s radio has held onto songs (and likely were before, we just didn't have the data to see it). This isn't a new thing from 2020. What streaming data has shown is us that people do listen to songs for a really long time, and that has perhaps in part led to radio hanging onto songs even longer. You mention there being 4 songs in the kworb top 50 over a year old. Guess what? In the top 50 of the Billboard Streaming Songs chart, there are currently five songs that have been on the chart for over a year: "Heat Waves" (#22 in its 74th week charting), "Save Your Tears" (#39 in its 80th week charting), "Tennessee Whiskey" (#43 in its 56th week charting, though it has been hanging around for several years), "Stay" (#47 in its 57th week charting), and "Blinding Lights" (#50 in its 111th week charting). So, the same songs you are criticizing radio for hanging onto are the same ones people are apparently still streaming.

(Additionally "Sweater Weather" is #48 in its 22nd week of charting, but it started a resurgence 2 years ago due to TikTok and has been hanging around for a long time.)

Not really. In 2014, Happy peaked with the highest kWorb radio audience ever after only 69 days. I don't think Happy made it to a year on kWorb radio. After that, peak radio audience got traded off for longevity. Radio holding onto songs wasn't a real problem until we got to Girls Like You and High Hopes, which were released in late 2018, and spent over 950 days on the kWorb radio chart, before falling off in 2021. Recently, we had Someone You Loved and Circles chart for over 1000 days, before falling off earlier this year.

It depends how you define "holding onto songs." There is a reason songs started having longer stays at #1 and on the Hot 100 in the 1990s, and I 100% remember people in the 90s complaining about radio playing songs into the ground. We now have seen another evolution of that in the streaming era. It is all tied to getting better data, though, and that data showing that people listen to the same songs for years.

[nathanalbright]

I can speak from experience, in that I remember the 1990s and remember thinking that radio was holding on to songs too long during that era and running them into the ground.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 30, 2022 15:07:33 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I can speak from experience, in that I remember the 1990s and remember thinking that radio was holding on to songs too long during that era and running them into the ground.

It's interesting to look at the records for most weeks at #1 on airplay and see that it's more of a mix of eras:

26 weeks - "Blinding Lights" (2020)
18 weeks - "Iris" (1998)
16 weeks - "Don't Speak" (1996-1997)
16 weeks - "We Belong Together" (2005)
16 weeks - "Girls Like You" (2018)
15 weeks - "Easy on Me" (2021-2022)
14 weeks - "Because You Loved Me" (1996)
14 weeks - "No One" (2007-2008)
14 weeks - "High Hopes" (2018-2019)

So, that's 3 songs from the 1990s, 2 songs from the 2000s, 2 songs from the 2010s, and 2 songs from the 2020s. That's very spread out, yet also telling that nothing pre-1996 makes the list.

Keep in mind that pre-1999, the airplay chart was mainly Top 40 with some AC and Modern Rock stations thrown in. Part of what led to songs charting even longer in the 2000s and now into the 2020s is that all formats are included, so if a song does well on several formats that will extend its chart life.

[Az Paynter]

I get so tired of Kworb's site being thrown around like it has any degree of legitimacy. It is a third party website aggregating already-public information from multiple different places (which in the case of radio, its source is itself a third party site that gets its information from elsewhere).

Put another way, who gives a f**k about what peaked where with how much AI on Kworb? Kworb is not Mediabase.

[areyoureadytojump]

Mediabase is not used for the Hot 100 so any talk of Kworb in this thread is appropriate.

[nathanalbright]

Imagine there being drama about how we estimate radio popularity, as if we needed radio to be the subject of more drama when it comes to charting songs.

[upsidedown]

I guess we're gonna be in the dark going forward on Digital Sales during the tracking week with Kworb down.

[nathanalbright]

Any idea of when or if it will be back up?

[Choco]

The idea of Stay having a legacy is laughable to me. Outside of the charts it's had very little cultural impact. It was a big hit but that's it. No one is gonna drop their single in 10 years and say "I was inspired by The Kid Laroi".

[chanman]

Aug 30, 2022 19:21:58 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Any idea of when or if it will be back up?

No

And I'm not so sure where Kworb pulls it's data from, 

But for now you can do checks every couple of hours at >>>>>       www.livepopbars2.com/index.php?Region=143441&Chart=34&numbers=Get+Chart+%28Numbers%29


Or maybe >>>>>> www.digitalsalesdata.com/diydsd.php

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 30, 2022 18:37:30 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

I guess we're gonna be in the dark going forward on Digital Sales during the tracking week with Kworb down.

I don’t think sales should count towards the Hot 100 anymore. It’s very rare these days to have a sales #1 that is also #1 on the Hot 100. There are even some weeks where the sales #1 fails to even chart on the Hot 100. We have reached the point where sales are no longer a reliable metric.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 30, 2022 20:51:50 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 30, 2022 18:37:30 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

I guess we're gonna be in the dark going forward on Digital Sales during the tracking week with Kworb down.

I don’t think sales should count towards the Hot 100 anymore. It’s very rare these days to have a sales #1 that is also #1 on the Hot 100. There are even some weeks where the sales #1 fails to even chart on the Hot 100. We have reached the point where sales are no longer a reliable metric.

But why not count them? Even if they tend to have minimal impact on a weekly basis, they are a form of consumption and it doesn't hurt to include them.

[chanman]

Aug 30, 2022 20:51:50 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 30, 2022 18:37:30 GMT -5 upsidedown said:

I guess we're gonna be in the dark going forward on Digital Sales during the tracking week with Kworb down.

I don’t think sales should count towards the Hot 100 anymore. It’s very rare these days to have a sales #1 that is also #1 on the Hot 100. There are even some weeks where the sales #1 fails to even chart on the Hot 100. We have reached the point where sales are no longer a reliable metric.

If you don't like Radio / Sales then just follow the overall Streaming Songs Chart and ignore the Billboard Hot 100.

[Gary]

phieaglesfan712 --- question for you sir.   Since you post about the formula constantly, was curious.  I see more than once, you say sales should be removed and with your running comments about Stay, you don't care too much for radio unless Lizzo is the singer.


Rather than a running dialogue about each individual song and why it is messing up your vision of the formula, can you state once and for all, in your opinion, what is the correct formula?  Streaming?

And have you ever brought up your concerns to Billboard by sending them an email?

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 30, 2022 21:33:45 GMT -5 Gary said:

phieaglesfan712 --- question for you sir.   Since you post about the formula constantly, was curious.  I see more than once, you say sales should be removed and with your running comments about Stay, you don't care too much for radio unless Lizzo is the singer.


Rather than a running dialogue about each individual song and why it is messing up your vision of the formula, can you state once and for all, in your opinion, what is the correct formula?  Streaming?

And have you ever brought up your concerns to Billboard by sending them an email?

The correct formula should be 75-80% streaming and 20-25% radio.

[Gary]

Aug 30, 2022 21:45:32 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 30, 2022 21:33:45 GMT -5 Gary said:

phieaglesfan712 --- question for you sir.   Since you post about the formula constantly, was curious.  I see more than once, you say sales should be removed and with your running comments about Stay, you don't care too much for radio unless Lizzo is the singer.


Rather than a running dialogue about each individual song and why it is messing up your vision of the formula, can you state once and for all, in your opinion, what is the correct formula?  Streaming?

And have you ever brought up your concerns to Billboard by sending them an email?

The correct formula should be 75-80% streaming and 20-25% radio.

OK - quoted, bolded and underlined. Your opinion on the formula is noted. I think everyone reading this thread and other threads understands this is what you want the formula to be.

[jasper0102]

Aug 30, 2022 20:48:01 GMT -5 Choco said:

The idea of Stay having a legacy is laughable to me. Outside of the charts it's had very little cultural impact. It was a big hit but that's it. No one is gonna drop their single in 10 years and say "I was inspired by The Kid Laroi".

The only legacy Stay is going to have in a couple years is being one of the biggest hits of the synthpop revival spearheaded by Blinding Lights, and being one of the most overplayed songs of all time.

[Darkest Hour]

Aug 30, 2022 20:51:15 GMT -5 chanman said:

No

And I'm not so sure where Kworb pulls it's data from, 

But for now you can do checks every couple of hours at >>>>>       www.livepopbars2.com/index.php?Region=143441&Chart=34&numbers=Get+Chart+%28Numbers%29


Or maybe >>>>>> www.digitalsalesdata.com/diydsd.php

These two sources are known to be inaccurate.
kworb did use livepopbars as a source for a while, but after a certain "freeze" a few years ago, it was found that the data from livepopbars follows a pre-determined statistical estimation, so it was never used again.