Billboard Hot 100: 11/05/2022

[jasper0102]

So, next week is a Drake + 21 Savage album bomb coinciding with Halloween and the Midnights fallout. That sounds fun. And early RIP to Glimpse Of Us (It should come back after Joji releases his album literally the week after that week), Rock and a Hard Place and whatever survives this week.

Oct 22, 2022 12:38:16 GMT -5 otaviohmg said:

Oct 22, 2022 10:36:49 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

I don't think Fall In Love is gonna leave, it's probably gonna pull a Doin This given it still hasn't peaked on Country Radio (or atleast it seems like it hasn't). And there's still a chance Billboard continues trolling us by keeping She Likes It around.
Every other song you listed is probably gonna leave though, alongside
-F.N.F (Let's Go)
-Sleazy Flow
-Last Night Lonely
-Left and Right
-Break My Soul

OH MY GODDDDD

CHRISTMAS CAME SO FKING EARLY THAT IT IS ABOUT TO BE MESSY TRYING TO SURVIVE

It’s the May album bombs all over again.

[atg]

Oct 22, 2022 20:17:51 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

So, next week is a Drake + 21 Savage album bomb coinciding with Halloween and the Midnights fallout.

If Jimmy Cooks is on the Drake/21 project then i could definitely see it going back to the top 10 but if it isn’t, then it could be a risk of dropping out when their album bomb strikes due to the damage it’ll take already from Taylor.

[firefox]

'Midnights' as a one-week topper on Billboard 200 doesn't look good, pretty sure Drake/Lil Baby will be #1 the following week. I hope she will pull an 'Un Verano Sin Ti'.

[mms82]

Oct 22, 2022 21:46:10 GMT -5 firefox said:

'Midnights' as a one-week topper on Billboard 200 doesn't look good, pretty sure Drake/Lil Baby will be #1 the following week. I hope she will pull an 'Un Verano Sin Ti'.

Doesn’t look good? It’s the biggest album in half a decade +

[Darkest Hour]

Oct 22, 2022 21:46:10 GMT -5 firefox said:

'Midnights' as a one-week topper on Billboard 200 doesn't look good, pretty sure Drake/Lil Baby will be #1 the following week. I hope she will pull an 'Un Verano Sin Ti'.

There's always Thanksgiving/Christmas period to boost physical sales. Look at what happened to 30.

[king_billboard_100]

Oct 22, 2022 16:05:58 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Speaking of Drake…

Wtf it just gets better every week

[Choco]

Oct 22, 2022 21:46:10 GMT -5 firefox said:

'Midnights' as a one-week topper on Billboard 200 doesn't look good, pretty sure Drake/Lil Baby will be #1 the following week. I hope she will pull an 'Un Verano Sin Ti'.

RED TV never went back to #1 either and it seems to be doing fine.

And I'd guess she will pull some promo tricks around Thanksgiving.

[firefox]

[firefox]

Second-day numbers will still be huge, I fear

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Oct 23, 2022 0:51:41 GMT -5 firefox said:

They combined the normal and 3am versions as had been requested. This definitely gives us a better sense of what's going on.

[kimberly]

Oct 22, 2022 16:58:55 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

2nd day drop % for some Taylor's albums on Spotify (US):

Lover -34,5%
folklore -40%
evermore -40,4%
Red TV -34%

based on these %, we can expect 52-58M streams tomorrow.

Also, if we use Red TV's first day vs first week streams as any indication (26% of total streams that first week), we can expect 340M Spotify streams for Midnights in the US. Please, don't quote this as something serious, I just like playing with numbers.

HDD projects north of 500M streams total, so 340M from Spotify might be a good estimate. she could do more given this album has all brand new songs (as opposed to Red TV, which was half old) but also Red TV had 10 more songs, which might even the field.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 10/21/22

Taylor Swift - Midnights
1(DEBUT) Anti-Hero 7,786,096
2(DEBUT) Lavender Haze 7,644,139
3(DEBUT) Maroon 6,847,851
4(DEBUT) Snow on the Beach 6,719,156
5(DEBUT) You're On Your Own, Kid 6,074,375
6(DEBUT) Midnight Rain 5,987,889
7(DEBUT) Vigilante Shit  5,696,233
8(DEBUT) Question...? 5,519,609
9(DEBUT) Karma 5,182,717
10(DEBUT) Bejeweled 5,096,200
11(DEBUT) Labyrinth  4,770,853
12(DEBUT) Sweet Nothing 4,464,243
13(DEBUT) Mastermind 4,450,320
14(DEBUT) The Great War 1,864,956
15(DEBUT) Bigger Than The Whole Sky 1,864,394
16(DEBUT) Would've, Could've, Should've 1,819,160
17(DEBUT) Paris 1,735,119
19(DEBUT) High Infidelity 1,633,494
21(DEBUT) Glitch  1,507,534
22(DEBUT) Dear Reader 1,427,824
Total Streams: 88,092,162

18(-17) Sam Smith, Kim Petras - Unholy 1,705,100 (+16,7371)
20(-18) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 1,521,621 (-3,060)
23(-20) d4vd - Romantic Homicide 1,033,493 (-2,491)
24(-20) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 960,691 (+10,321)
25(-14) Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock 940,318 (+251,057)
26(-21) Harry Styles - As It Was 917,470 (+67,148)
27(-21) Bad Bunny - Tití Me Preguntó 874,860 (+67,693)
28(-21) Bad Bunny, Chencho Corleone - Me Porto Bonito 795,500 (+38,497)
29(-15) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 766,486 (+88,871)
30(-22) Lil Yachty - Poland 735,397 (+17,575)
31(-19) Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 724,643 (+36,966)
32(-17) David Guetta, Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) 723,795 (+49,008)
33(-24) Drake, 21 Savage - Jimmy Cooks 708,009 (-4,805)
34(-24) JVKE - golden hour 707,352 (+12,934)
35(-22) The Weeknd - Die For You 683,530 (+1,934)
36(-17) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 664,035 (+39,283)
37(-21) The Neighbourhood - Sweater Weather 640,648 (-25,264)
38(-18) Post Malone, Doja Cat - I Like You (A Happier Song) 626,606 (+23,753)
39(-16) Chris Brown - Under the Influence 624,063 (+36,941)
40(-19) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 623,245 (+25,605)
41(-17) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 610,236 (+27,275)
42(-24) Omar Apollo - Evergreen 602,215 (-39,983)
43(-26) Marshmello, Juice WRLD - Bye Bye 597,557 (-64,472)
44(-22) Future, Drake, Tems - WAIT FOR U 597,500 (+6,275)
45(-19) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 568,349 (+11,372)
48(-21) Steve Lacy - Static 544,418 (-7,901)
49(-24) Joji - Glimpse of Us 541,021 (-22,032)
50(-21) Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 519,250 (+1,645)
51(-20) Luke Combs - The Kind of Love We Make 506,327 (-2,935)
52(-19) Doja Cat - Vegas 502,285 (+4,185)
53(+62) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 498,839 (+199,834) (+67%)
54(-18) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 489,498 (+14,562)
56(+13) Shakira, Ozuna - Monotonía 480,852 (+125,182)
57(-15) Lizzo - About Damn Time 477,762 (+46,661)
58(-30) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 476,967 (-52,506)
59(-21) Kanye West - Bound 2 466,549 (-5,905)
60(-23) Arctic Monkeys - 505 464,612 (-8,466)
61(-22) GloRilla, Cardi B - Tomorrow 2 454,110 (+5,019)
62(-21) Lil Baby - Not Finished 448,812 (+11,692)
63(-11) Manuel Turizo - La Bachata 448,369 (+54,173)
64(DEBUT) Post Malone, Mark Morrison, Sickick - Cooped Up / Return of the Mack 440,897
65(-33) Lil Baby - California Breeze 440,204 (-60,256)
67(-18) Grupo Frontera - No Se Va 428,261 (+22,382)
68(-25) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 423,494 (-2,430)
69(-21) Oliver Tree, Robin Schulz - Miss You 422,288 (+8,841)
71(-26) Kanye West - Heartless 415,478 (-4,438)
72(+30) Taylor Swift - august 412,350 (+98,254)
73(+8) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 410,224 (+72,365)
74(-30) Hotel Ugly - Shut up My Moms Calling 407,407 (-14,384)
76(-25) Lil Nas X - STAR WALKIN' 397,301 (-3,612)
77(-23) Lil Baby - Freestyle 395,038 (+1,927)
78(-31) Kendrick Lamar, Jay Rock - Money Trees 393,357 (-21,394)
80(DEBUT) Arctic Monkeys - I Ain't Quite Where I Think I Am 388,699
81(-41) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 388,601 (-53,754)
82(-18) Bad Bunny - Neverita 386,814-362,374 (+24,440)
84(-25) Armani White - BILLIE EILISH. 384,975 (+11,713)
85(+5) Taylor Swift - All Too Well (10 Minute Version) 380,923 (+55,075)
86(-33) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 375,888 (-17,611)
87(-29) Kanye West, Dwele - Flashing Lights 374,721 (-1,195)
88(+107) Taylor Swift - Lover 373,945 (+123,146)
89(+5) Taylor Swift - cardigan 370,553 (+48,242)
90(-13) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 369,327 (+27,493)
91(-13) Bizarap, Quevedo - Quevedo: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 52 368,309 (+26,704)
92(-36) Baby Keem - HONEST 366,659 (-12,184)
94(-26) J. Cole - Wet Dreamz 363,982 (+6,208)
95(-32) Tory Lanez - The Color Violet 362,472 (-3,586)
96(+69) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 357,339 (+92,856)
97(+8) Rosa Linn - SNAP 354,434 (+45,891)
98(-32) Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina 353,474 (-5,026)
99(-37) Beach Weather - Sex, Drugs, Etc. 353,115 (-13,425)

101(-26) Yung Gravy - Betty (Get Money) 346,392 (+2,313)
102(-41) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 345,275 (-24,135)
104(-25) Childish Gambino - Me and Your Mama 344,792 (+4,083)
105(DEBUT) Roddy Ricch - Aston Martin Truck 344,040
109(-36) Arctic Monkeys - I Wanna Be Yours 341,140 (-8,608)
111(-44) Lil Baby, Nardo Wick - Pop Out 335,242 (-22,894)
112(-40) Frank Ocean - Pink + White 334,897 (-14,935)
115(-5) Lizzo - 2 Be Loved (Am I Ready) 332,383 (+30,917)
117(-30) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 329,027 (-2,210)
118(-7) ROSALÍA - DESPECHÁ 328,731 (+27,839)
120(-44) Lil Baby, Young Thug - Never Hating 327,477 (-16,074)
122(-34) Ghost - Mary On A Cross 325,252 (-4,660)
123(+75) Taylor Swift - Style 325,173 (+76,446)
126(+22) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 324,244 (+53,421)
127(-43) The Weeknd, Gesaffelstein - I Was Never There 324,014 (-9,214)
129(re-entry) Arctic Monkeys - There'd Better Be a Mirrorball 322,183
130(-44) Lil Baby - Heyy 322,083 (-9,336)
132(re-entry) Taylor Swift - Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version) 319,767
135(-37) Billie Eilish - TV 309,245 (-10,223)
138(-43) Lil Baby - Real Spill 305,078 (-16,834)
140(=) KAROL G, Maldy - GATÚBELA 301,917 (+26,882)
142(-43) Tom Odell - Another Love 301,272 (-16,379)
143(-31) Tyler Childers - All Your'n 299,981 (-849)
144(-48) Lil Baby, Future - Forever 298,639 (-23,007)
147(-33) Charlie Puth, Jung Kook - Left and Right 297,238 (-2,878)
150(-34) Bailey Zimmerman - Fall in Love 295,916 (-1,980)
155(DEBUT) Arctic Monkeys - Sculptures Of Anything Goes 289,529
159(-23) Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9 286,402 (+7,799)
163(re-entry) Harry Styles - Keep Driving 280,816
167(-30) Brent Faiyaz - ALL MINE 278,978 (+2,215)
169(re-entry) Olivia Rodrigo - favorite crime 277,145
171(DEBUT) Cults - Gilded Lily 276,263
172(-42) Kenshi Yonezu - KICK BACK 276,036 (-7,253)
174(-39) AJR - World's Smallest Violin 275,656 (-3,345)
176(-23) Elton John, Britney Spears - Hold Me Closer 273,574 (+4,108)
180(+11) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 271,812 (+17,222)
181(-23) Future - Solo 271,739 (+3,837)
182(re-entry) Harry Styles - Daylight 271,414
184(-42) Zach Bryan - Heading South 270,635 (-3,477)
186(-43) Mr.Kitty - After Dark 269,277 (-4,248)
188(-20) Tyler Childers - Feather Indians 268,884 (+4,974)
191(-53) Kanye West - I Wonder 267,914 (-8,568)
194(-40) $uicideboy$ - Antarctica 264,597 (-4,369)
195(-46) Frank Ocean - Novacane 264,318 (-8,069)
198(re-entry) Rauw Alejandro, Lyanno, Brray - LOKERA 263,211
199(-76) Coldplay - Sparks 262,942 (-29,555)

Biggest Gains (50K+): good 4 u, Style, Blank Space, Lover, All Too Well (10 Minute Version), Don't Blame Me, august, La Bachata, Monotonía, Cruel Summer, Late Night Talking, I Ain't Worried, Tití Me Preguntó, As It Was, Just Wanna Rock, Unholy

Top 10 Without Taylor Swift:
1. Unholy
2. Bad Habit
3. Romantic Homicide
4. Something in the Orange
5. Just Wanna Rock
6. As It Was
7. Tití Me Preguntó
8. Me Porto Bonito
9. I Ain't Worried
10. Poland

[artistry]

I don't like how all these album tracks from Taylor and Drake will cause beautiful singles from new artists to fall down or out of the Hot 100. Songs like Until I Found You, Evergreen and Golden Hour deserves their shot of reaching the top 40. I would love to see them have longevity and contend for the 2023 year end chart.

Then singles like 505, Tek It and This Is Why will probably not even debut in the Hot 100 because all of the unnecessary tracks.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 23, 2022 7:18:52 GMT -5 artistry said:

I don't like how all these album tracks from Taylor and Drake will cause beautiful singles from new artists to fall down or out of the Hot 100. Songs like Until I Found You, Evergreen and Golden Hour deserves their shot of reaching the top 40. I would love to see them have longevity and contend for the 2023 year end chart.

Then singles like 505, Tek It and This Is Why will probably not even debut in the Hot 100 because all of the unnecessary tracks.

The frustration of songs being blocked is normal but 505, Tek It, and This is Why wouldn't have even debuted even if it weren't for Taylor because a reminder: the Bubbling Under, is not #101-125 spots for the Hot 100. They are simply songs that haven't charted yet that are closest to the #100 position but for the most weeks they have fewer points than the #100 and have even fewer points that songs that prematurely left or have gone recurrent, which is why Tek It has remained in the BU for months even when there wasn't an album bomb.

[big2000]

Anti-Hero: 17.83 million radio audience
Karma: 2.18 million radio audience
Lavender Haze: 2.17 million radio audience

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 10 » / « 23 »

1(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 90.77(-0.35)
2(+1) Post Malone - I Like You (A Happier Song) [feat. Doja Cat] 78.91(-0.21)
3(-1) Nicky Youre & Dazy - Sunroof 78.53(-0.72)
4(=) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 70.20(+0.52)
5(=) Doja Cat - Vegas (From the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack ELVIS) 68.97(-0.33)
6(=) Sia - Unstoppable 65.92(+0.27)
7(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 63.44(-0.41) +
8(+1) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 61.48(+0.59)
9(-1) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 61.17(-0.67)
10(=) Elton John & Britney Spears - Hold Me Closer 50.09(-0.09)

11(=) Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl 49.68(+0.77)
29(=) Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy 32.62(+0.84)
47(+2) The Weeknd - Die For You 24.94(+0.98)
56(+4) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 22.44(+1.09)
71(+24) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 17.83(+5.64)
78(+2) Nate Smith - Whiskey On You 15.95(+0.73)
-(-) Taylor Swift - Karma 2.18(+1.56) +
-(-) Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 2.17(+1.64) +

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 23, 2022 10:11:31 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 10 » / « 23 »

71(+24) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 17.83(+5.64)
-(-) Taylor Swift - Karma 2.18(+1.56) +
-(-) Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 2.17(+1.64) +

she is back with a VENGEANCE

[nickd]

last.fm stats are out before Spotify. Curious how they correlate.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 22, 2022 12:07:41 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Oct 21, 2022 23:37:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Midnights AFTER 24 HOURS
2(+2) Lavender Haze
4(+8) Anti-Hero
5(+6) Snow On The Beach (with Lana Del Rey)
6(+4) Maroon
9(+6) You're On Your Own, Kid
13(+3) Midnight Rain
15(+4) Question...?
16(+5) Vigilante s**t
17(+10) Bejeweled
18(DEBUT) Anti-Hero (3am)
21(+4) Karma
23(+3) Labyrinth
26(DEBUT) Snow on the Beach (3am)
27(+3) Sweet Nothing
29(+2) Mastermind
32(DEBUT) You're On Your Own, Kid (3am)
33(DEBUT) Midnight Rain (3am)
36(DEBUT) Vigilante Shit (3am)
37(DEBUT) Question...? (3am)
38(DEBUT) The Great War
41(DEBUT) Bigger Than the Whole Sky
42(DEBUT) Karma (3am)
42(DEBUT) Bejeweled (3am)
45(DEBUT) Would've Could've Should've
46(DEBUT) Paris
49(DEBUT) Labyrinth (3am)
51(DEBUT) High Infidelity
54(DEBUT) Sweet Nothing (3am)
56(DEBUT) Mastermind
62(DEBUT) Glitch
65(DEBUT) Dear Reader

So annoyingly, AM doesn't combine streams of songs if they're on different releases so the standard version and the 3AM edition version are counted separately despite being the same song

Midnights AFTER 36 HOURS
4(-2) Lavender Haze
7(-3) Anti-Hero
10(+8) Anti-Hero (3am)
11(-6) Snow On The Beach (with Lana Del Rey)
13(-7) Maroon
14(DEBUT) Lavender Haze (3am)
17(DEBUT) Maroon (3am)
18(-5) Midnight Rain
21(+5) Snow on the Beach (3am)
22(-13) You're On Your Own, Kid
23(-7) Vigilante s**t
24(-7) Bejeweled
25(-10) Question...?
26(+7) Midnight Rain (3am)
28(+4) You're On Your Own, Kid (3am)
29(+7) Vigilante s**t (3am)
30(-9) Karma
32(+5) Question...? (3am)
33(+9) Karma (3am)
35(-12) Labyrinth
37(+5) Bejeweled (3am)
38(+3) Bigger Than the Whole Sky
39(-1) The Great War
41(+4) Would've Could've Should've
43(-16) Sweet Nothing
45(+4) Labyrinth (3am)
47(-1) Paris
46(-17) Mastermind
50(+6) Mastermind
51(+3) Sweet Nothing (3am)
52(-1) High Infidelity
58(+4) Glitch
62(+3) Dear Reader

Midnights AFTER 48 HOURS
1(+6) Anti-Hero
2(+2) Lavender Haze
3(+8) Snow On The Beach (with Lana Del Rey)
4(+9) Maroon
5(+13) Midnight Rain
6(+16) You're On Your Own, Kid
8(+15) Vigilante Sht
10(+14) Bejeweled
11(+19) Karma
12(+13) Question...?
13(+22) Labyrinth
15(+31) Mastermind
16(+27) Sweet Nothing
27(+11) Bigger Than the Whole Sky
30(+9) The Great War
32(+9) Would've Could've Should've
36(+9) Paris
39(+13) High Infidelity
42(+16) Glitch
45(+17) Dear Reader

Ayt so as y'all heard, they finally combined the streams of the standard and the 3am editions so no more duplicates

[woods]

Something I just calculated from US Spotify chart on Friday:

Midnights 20 tracks combined: 88,092,162
Midnights 13 tracks combined: 76,239,681
Other 180 in top 200 combined: 73,146,992

Legend!

[fridayteenage]

Oct 23, 2022 13:40:48 GMT -5 woods said:

Something I just calculated from US Spotify chart on Friday:

Midnights 20 tracks combined: 88,092,162
Midnights 13 tracks combined: 76,239,681
Other 180 in top 200 combined: 73,146,992

Legend!

plus, some of the others in the top 200 were also taylor.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Omg I am so impatient where are today’s Spotify numbers

Well, yesterday’s but u know what I mean

[joshtheking]

Oct 23, 2022 14:05:20 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

Omg I am so impatient where are today’s Spotify numbers

Well, yesterday’s but u know what I mean

Fr they always do this for the days I'm actually excited for 

[kindofbiased]

There's no way Midnights only spends a week at #1, even if Drake & 21 overtake it next week I fully expect Taylor to take back the #1 the week after

[nickd]

118m second day.

[Ryan]

*unfiltered

[joshtheking]

Imagine if Midnights blocks Drake lol... unlikely but that would cause some controversy for sure

[chartfreak]

My gosh...Drake can't stay away for 5 minutes.

[nickd]

Oct 23, 2022 11:13:54 GMT -5 nickd said:

last.fm stats are out before Spotify. Curious how they correlate.

Turned out to be a pretty good match...

Last FM
Day 1: 9,789,963
Day 2: 6,296,074
Change: -35.69%

Spotify
Day 1: 184,695,609
Day 2: 119,568,987
Change: -35.26%


Most of the tracks followed a similar pattern of decrease on both platforms too.


Anti-Hero had the biggest difference, which makes sense since it was playlisted a lot and stan driven last.fm isn't going to be as impacted by that. Snow On The Beach, Midnight Rain, Vigilante Shit and Bigger Than The Whole Sky had smaller discrepancies but otherwise pretty bang on.

[rosalina4812]

Oct 23, 2022 18:13:59 GMT -5 nickd said:

Oct 23, 2022 11:13:54 GMT -5 nickd said:

last.fm stats are out before Spotify. Curious how they correlate.

Turned out to be a pretty good match...

Last FM
Day 1: 9,789,963
Day 2: 6,296,074
Change: -35.69%

Spotify
Day 1: 184,695,609
Day 2: 119,568,987
Change: -35.26%


Most of the tracks followed a similar pattern of decrease on both platforms too.


Anti-Hero had the biggest difference, which makes sense since it was playlisted a lot and stan driven last.fm isn't going to be as impacted by that. Snow On The Beach, Midnight Rain, Vigilante s**t and Bigger Than The Whole Sky had smaller discrepancies but otherwise pretty bang on.

How were you able to get the Spotify numbers? Spotify Charts still hasn’t updated.