2023 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 11)

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

I know this happened before, but it's worth noting that "Sure Thing", a song that appeared in the 2011 YE at #92, is about to become a re-entry with a better peak and Year-End placement, 12 years later

[rockgolf]

We're (scarily) half-way thru Billboard calendar year 2023, and there's doubt about what will be YE #1! I love it.

Every song in the YE top 15 is still charting. But only 45 songs have crossed the 1600 point cutoff to practically guarantee a top 100 placing.

My list for the chart dated April 15, 2023:

And my projected chart for the year end. I assume a roughly 5% drop in points each week. But Jimin, who was #1 last week, dropped even more than I expected: almost 95%! A #1 song that is unlikely to make the year end Top 100.

Proj Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Kill Bill	SZA	9031
2	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	8174
3	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	7921
4	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	7545
5	Creepin'	Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage	7327
6	Die For You	The Weeknd	7228
7	Unholy	Sam Smith & Kim Petras	5785
8	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	5511
9	As It Was	Harry Styles	5381
10	Rock And A Hard Place	Bailey Zimmerman	5322
11	Rich Flex	Drake & 21 Savage	5037
12	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	4942
13	You Proof	Morgan Wallen	4895
14	Under The Influence	Chris Brown	4700
15	Boy's A Liar, Pt. 2	PinkPantheress & Ice Spice	4440
16	Lavender Haze	Taylor Swift	4312
17	Players	Coi Leray	4183
18	Just Wanna Rock	Lil Uzi Vert	4003
19	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	3952
20	Cuff It	Beyonce	3949
21	Thank God	Kane Brown With Katelyn Brown	3723
22	Thought You Should Know	Morgan Wallen	3568
23	Sure Thing	Miguel	3119
24	Bad Habit	Steve Lacy	2981
25	Escapism	RAYE ft. 070 Shake	2934
26	Until I Found You	Stephen Sanchez	2852
27	Superhero (Heroes & Villains)	Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown	2851
28	Golden Hour	JVKE	2814
29	Heart Like A Truck	Lainey Wilson	2721
30	Wait In The Truck	HARDY ft. Lainey Wilson	2618
31	Shirt	SZA	2547
32	Made You Look	Meghan Trainor	2512
33	One Thing At A Time	Morgan Wallen	2493
34	Snooze	SZA	2334
35	Favorite Song	Toosii	2291
36	Spin Bout U	Drake & 21 Savage	2251
37	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	2241
38	Lift Me Up	Rihanna	2128
39	Going, Going, Gone	Luke Combs	2119
40	I Like You (A Happier Song)	Post Malone ft. Doja Cat	1931
41	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	1899
42	Tomorrow 2	GloRilla & Cardi B	1842
43	Ella Baila Sola	Eslabon Armado X Peso Pluma	1819
44	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	1790
45	Wait For U	Future ft. Drake & Tems	1730
46	Nobody Gets Me	SZA	1727
47	Super Freaky Girl	Nicki Minaj	1718
48	Jingle Bell Rock	Bobby Helms	1670
49	Fight The Feeling	Rod Wave	1563
50	Bebe Dame	Fuerza Regida X Grupo Frontera	1536
51	What My World Spins Around	Jordan Davis	1508
52	TQG	Karol G x Shakira	1499
53	The Kind Of Love We Make	Luke Combs	1451
54	A Holly Jolly Christmas	Burl Ives	1442
55	Bloody Mary	Lady Gaga	1402
56	Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53	Bizarrap & Shakira	1401
57	She Had Me At Heads Carolina	Cole Swindell	1399
58	About Damn Time	Lizzo	1353
59	Low	SZA	1334
60	Love You Anyway	Luke Combs	1324
61	Last Christmas	Wham!	1299
62	What He Didn't Do	Carly Pearce	1227
63	It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year	Andy Williams	1217
64	Handle On You	Parker McCollum	1181
65	Tennessee Orange	Megan Moroney	1119
66	La Bebe	Yng Lvcas x Peso Pluma	1113
67	Wild As Her	Corey Kent	1100
68	Unstoppable	Sia	1100
69	Freestyle	Lil Baby	1092
70	Que Vuelvas	Carin Leon X Grupo Frontera	1072
71	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	1072
72	Circo Loco	Drake & 21 Savage	1066
73	Feliz Navidad	Jose Feliciano	1063
74	Sunroof	Nicky Youre & dazy	1045
75	I Wrote The Book	Morgan Wallen	1031
76	The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You)	Nat King Cole	1028
77	Vegas	Doja Cat	987
78	Whiskey On You	Nate Smith	983
79	Sleigh Ride	The Ronettes	973
80	Everything I Love	Morgan Wallen	955
81	Underneath The Tree	Kelly Clarkson	947
82	Blind	SZA	933
83	Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow	Dean Martin	896
84	Son Of A Sinner	Jelly Roll	870
85	It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas	Perry Como And The Fontane Sisters With Mitchell Ayres And His Orchestra	870
86	Star Walkin' (League Of Legends Worlds Anthem)	Lil Nas X	841
87	Major Distribution	Drake & 21 Savage	829
88	On BS	Drake & 21 Savage	827
89	Santa Tell Me	Ariana Grande	823
90	Wasted On You	Morgan Wallen	814
91	Love Again	The Kid LAROI	780
92	Nonsense	Sabrina Carpenter	775
93	Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)	Darlene Love	767
94	No Se Va	Grupo Frontera	760
95	Love Language	SZA	755
96	White Christmas	Bing Crosby	742
97	Deck The Halls	Nat King Cole	736
98	Too Many Nights	Metro Boomin ft. Don Toliver & Future	715
99	Hold Me Closer	Elton John & Britney Spears	712
100	Painting Pictures	Superstar Pride	707

[xtynaaguilera99]

BILLBOARD YEAR-END (January/December version)

WEEK 14/52
Only counting songs that have 100.000 chart points.
25 songs are currently locked.

1. Miley Cyrus - Flowers - 424.331
2. SZA - Kill Bill - 390.425
3. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin - 294.198
4. The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Die For You - 293.610
5. Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero - 260.805
6. Morgan Wallen - Last Night - 246.134
7. Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy - 238.586
8. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I’m Good (Blue) - 217.346
9. Harry Styles - As It Was - 193.930
10. Drake & 21 Savage - Rich Flex - 185.194

11. PinkPantheress & Ice Spice - Boy’s a liar, Pt. 2 - 182.333
12. Beyoncé - CUFF IT - 181.476
13. Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock - 178.140
14. Morgan Wallen - You Proof - 175.137
15. Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and a Hard Place - 173.515
16. Chris Brown - Under The Influence - 173.002
17. Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know - 171.459
18. Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down - 170.898
19. Kane Brown & Katelyn Brown - Thank God - 160.908
20. Zach Bryan - Something In The Orange (Z&S’ Version) - 155.104

21. Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze - 151.257
22. Coi Leray - Players - 147.478
23. RAYE & 070 Shake - Escapism. - 146.882
24. JVKE - golden hour - 146.276
25. Metro Boomin, Future & Chris Brown - Superhero (Heroes & Villains) - 138.354
26. Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You - 129.707
27. Miguel - Sure Thing - 128.143
28. SZA - Shirt - 127.040
29. Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck - 126.812
30. SZA - Snooze - 122.840

31. Meghan Trainor - Made You Look - 120.957
32. Fuerza Regida & Grupo Frontera - Bebe Dame - 113.880
33. Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time - 109.535
34. HARDY & Lainey Wilson - Wait In The Truck - 107.760
35. Bizarrap & Shakira - Shakira: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53 - 104.320
36. Steve Lacy - Bad Habit - 102.473
37. SZA - Nobody Gets Me - 99.667

[avamaxstan]

Whoa, LN was just released 6 weeks ago and is already #4 year-end?

[kcdawg13]

It seems the battle for YE #1 will be between Kill Bill and Flowers, and it all comes down to which song has the better longevity. Kill Bill peaked on radio later than Flowers did and has better streaming, but Flowers is still holding steady on both metrics and has 8 weeks at #1 under it's belt.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 13, 2023 7:45:16 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Whoa, LN was just released 6 weeks ago and is already #4 year-end?

#6 in the January-December Year-End posted above. In the actual Billboard 2023 Year-End it is much lower since most of the other songs have more weeks charted.

[mms82]

what are the number one odds in your opinions~

50% Kill Bill
40% Flowers
10% Anti-Hero?

[Music Fan]

I don't necessarily see Last Night being a strong #1 contender, but considering we have You Proof still in the Top 20 (the single that did decent on pop radio) and Last Night is still rising in points, especially due to radio, it may end up with better odds than Flowers or Anti-Hero. I still think it will likely be 1. Kill Bill 2. Flowers 3. Last Night 4. Anti-Hero,

[Groovy]

Last Night could be a darkhorse candidate, it's consistent on streaming and sales and continuing to get big gains on radio.

[After Minutes]

I actually think it'll have to be between Kill Bill and Last Night

[plankton5165]

I like Christmas, but I'm kind of getting sick of these Christmas hits entering Billboard Year-Ends.

This year is 2023, and I don't think these hits are from 2023. Or even 2022 (some songs that were released in 2022 will make the 2023 year-end).

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[mms82]

Wow, fair on Last Night having a shot. Love seeing a year be competitive like this! Four plausible candidates and its halfway through the year!

[avamaxstan]

If *another* song that got blocked from #1 ends up getting the year-end #1... Justice for Dua and SZA

[kcdawg13]

I think Anti-Hero's insane longevity will definitely land it in the Top 5, probably 4-5. I think #1 is out of the question though.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[jasper0102]

Atp I feel SZA still has the upper hand for the year-end number-one. She’s not that far behind Anti-Hero and is ahead enough of Flowers and Last Night that if it stays consistent on points it could still stay ahead of the both of them. I do feel Last Night is probably gonna be her main competitor though, not Flowers, given it’s (probably) gonna start building a margin between it and the rest of the Hot 100 because of the monstrous streaming and radio gains. And if the gap is big enough, I do feel he has a shot unless SZA or Miley pull the remix game.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Apr 13, 2023 19:21:33 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think Anti-Hero's insane longevity will definitely land it in the Top 5, probably 4-5. I think #1 is out of the question though.

Yeah. Kill Bill should probably surpass it in 4 weeks and Flowers in 6 weeks. Also, its first two weeks at #1 got wasted by counting toward the 2022 Year-End.

[atg]

Apr 13, 2023 22:13:54 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Atp I feel SZA still has the upper hand for the year-end number-one. She’s not that far behind Anti-Hero and is ahead enough of Flowers and Last Night that if it stays consistent on points it could still stay ahead of the both of them. I do feel Last Night is probably gonna be her main competitor though, not Flowers, given it’s (probably) gonna start building a margin between it and the rest of the Hot 100 because of the monstrous streaming and radio gains. And if the gap is big enough, I do feel he has a shot unless SZA or Miley pull the remix game.

SZA probably has it even more now that a remix with Doja Cat is released.

[jasper0102]

Apr 14, 2023 0:38:02 GMT -5 atg said:

Apr 13, 2023 22:13:54 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Atp I feel SZA still has the upper hand for the year-end number-one. She’s not that far behind Anti-Hero and is ahead enough of Flowers and Last Night that if it stays consistent on points it could still stay ahead of the both of them. I do feel Last Night is probably gonna be her main competitor though, not Flowers, given it’s (probably) gonna start building a margin between it and the rest of the Hot 100 because of the monstrous streaming and radio gains. And if the gap is big enough, I do feel he has a shot unless SZA or Miley pull the remix game.

SZA probably has it even more now that a remix with Doja Cat is released.

Yeah, if the Doja remix is successful (which it probably will be), it's probably gonna be the nail in the coffin for any song besides Kill Bill being the year-end number-one.

[plankton5165]

Apr 13, 2023 22:44:40 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Apr 13, 2023 19:21:33 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think Anti-Hero's insane longevity will definitely land it in the Top 5, probably 4-5. I think #1 is out of the question though.

Yeah. Kill Bill should probably surpass it in 4 weeks and Flowers in 6 weeks. Also, its first two weeks at #1 got wasted by counting toward the 2022 Year-End.

Nice point.

[OCDave]

Here are my current predictions on what the final year end will look like:


1 - Kill Bill
2 - Last Night
3 - Anti-Hero
4 - Flowers
5 - Die For You
7 - Creepin
9 - Calm Down
11 - Unholy
13 - As It Was
15 - Boy’s A Liar
17 - I’m Good (Blue)
19 - Players
21 - Rich Flex
23 - You Proof
25 - Something In The Orange
27 - Just Wanna Rock
30 - Rock And A Hard Place
32 - Under The Influence
33 - Sure Thing
35 - Lavender Haze
36 - Cuff It
38 - Thank God
41 - Fast Car
43 - Snooze
45 - Ella Baila Sola
46 - Thought You Should Know
47 - Favorite Song
48 - Bad Habit
50 - Golden Hour
51 - One Thing At A Time
52 - Superhero
54 - Escapism
55 - Until I Found You
57 - Shirt
59 - Made You Look
60 - Spin Bout U
62 - All I Want For Christmas Is You
63 - Wait In The Truck
64 - Search & Rescue
65 - Love You Anyway
67 - Thinkin’ Bout Me
68 - Rockin Around The Christmas Tree
70 - Heart Like A Truck
72 - Going, Going, Gone
74 - TQG
75 - Next Thing You Know
77 - Lift Me Up
80 - Ella Baila Sola
83 - Slut Me Out
86 - Jingle Bell Rock
87 - Tennessee Orange
89 - Cupid
92 - Tomorrow 2
93 - A Holly Jolly Christmas
95 - La Bebe
96 - I Like You
98 - Bebe Dame
100 - Nobody Gets Me

[puwrpler04]

Can we talk about how the last 2 years have a been a golden age for good country music on the charts

Particularly this year
One Thing At a Time
Love You Anyways
Handle On You
Tennessee Orange
Something In The Orange
Five Leaf Clover
Fast Car
Everything I Love
Thought You Should Know

Those are all fantastic and have great chances to make not just the year end but my top 10 at the end of the year

[justbeingernest48]

Apr 16, 2023 22:20:10 GMT -5 puwrpler04 said:

Can we talk about how the last 2 years have a been a golden age for good country music on the charts

Particularly this year
One Thing At a Time
Love You Anyways
Handle On You
Tennessee Orange
Something In The Orange
Five Leaf Clover
Fast Car
Everything I Love
Thought You Should Know

Those are all fantastic and have great chances to make not just the year end but my top 10 at the end of the year

Heart Like A Truck and wait in the truck too

More Lainey Wilson is always a positive in my book

Really wish What He Didn't Do by Carly Pearce wasn't likely to fall short, that song is great too

[Groovy]

It’s safe to say that Kill Bill will be the biggest non-number 1 this year or Creepin’ if KB does go to 1.

[tekkenguy]

Apr 14, 2023 6:16:23 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Apr 14, 2023 0:38:02 GMT -5 atg said:

SZA probably has it even more now that a remix with Doja Cat is released.

Yeah, if the Doja remix is successful (which it probably will be), it's probably gonna be the nail in the coffin for any song besides Kill Bill being the year-end number-one.

Not if the remix is a one-week wonder and the song continues to trend downward afterwards. If Morgan really locks up the summer months and becomes a radio monster he can contend for #1.

[puwrpler04]

Songs I think can make top 50 on the Year End List
Locked already
Anti Hero
Kill Bill
Flowers
Unholy
Die For You
Rich Flex
Creepin
I’m Good (Blue)
As It Was
Cuff It
You Proof
Under The Influence
Just Wanna Rock
Something In The Orange
Last Night
Rock And A Hard Place
Thank God


Songs that are Very Likley
Lavender Haze
Calm Down
Boy’s A Liar Pt 2
Snooze
One Thing At A Time
Players

Has a chance
Golden Hour
Superhero
Spin Bout U
Thought You Should Know

[kcdawg13]

As It Was is done once it's below #25, it's already down to #18 so one decently big album bomb and it's a wrap. I'm still a bit weary about it finishing Top 20, I think somewhere like #22 seems more appropriate.

[jasper0102]

Apr 18, 2023 10:52:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

It’s safe to say that Kill Bill will be the biggest non-number 1 this year or Creepin’ if KB does go to 1.

Agreed

Apr 18, 2023 12:40:35 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Apr 14, 2023 6:16:23 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Yeah, if the Doja remix is successful (which it probably will be), it's probably gonna be the nail in the coffin for any song besides Kill Bill being the year-end number-one.

Not if the remix is a one-week wonder and the song continues to trend downward afterwards. If Morgan really locks up the summer months and becomes a radio monster he can contend for #1.

Given what the streaming numbers for the remix are looking like, I kinda agree. But it also depends, i don’t think Morgan’s gonna be the Song Of The Summer here.

[tekkenguy]

Apr 18, 2023 17:50:45 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Apr 18, 2023 10:52:51 GMT -5 Groovy said:

It’s safe to say that Kill Bill will be the biggest non-number 1 this year or Creepin’ if KB does go to 1.

Agreed

Apr 18, 2023 12:40:35 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Not if the remix is a one-week wonder and the song continues to trend downward afterwards. If Morgan really locks up the summer months and becomes a radio monster he can contend for #1.

Given what the streaming numbers for the remix are looking like, I kinda agree. But it also depends, i don’t think Morgan’s gonna be the Song Of The Summer here.

Is it going to be EBS?