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Post by nathanalbright on Sept 10, 2024 16:03:52 GMT -5
That's why the true OGs use chart points rather than position points.
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Post by reputainbow on Sept 10, 2024 17:11:31 GMT -5
{Week 47}1 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 9821
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 9109
3 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 8333
4 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 7772
5 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 7420
6 A Bar Song (Tipsy) (Shaboozey) 6858
7 Greedy (Tate McRae) 6843
8 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 6236
9 I Had Some Help (Post Malone/Morgan Wallen) 5947
10 Snooze (SZA) 5632
11 Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) 5620
12 Too Sweet (Hozier) 5528
13 Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) 5434
14 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 5257
15 Million Dollar Baby (Tommy Richman) 5247
16 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 5236
17 Like That (Future/Metro Boomin/Kendrick Lamar) 4842
18 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 4447
19 Saturn (SZA) 4344
20 Water (Tyla) 4203
21 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 4104.4
22 We Can't Be Friends (Wait for Your Love) (Ariana Grande) 3974
23 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 3887.6
24 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3844
25 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 3645
26 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3610
27 Fortnight (Taylor Swift/Post Malone) 3525.2
28 Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) 3493.8
29 Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) 3466
30 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 3268.8
31 Carnival (Kanye West/Ty Dolla $ign/Rich the Kid/Playboi Carti) 3265.6
32 Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) 3251
33 Austin (Dasha) 3188.6
34 Redrum (21 Savage) 2822.4
35 Cowgirls (Morgan Wallen/ERNEST) 2762
36 Wanna Be (GloRilla/Megan Thee Stallion) 2695
37 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2673.4
38 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 2665.6
39 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2616.6
40 Yeah Glo! (GloRilla) 2568.8
41 Pink Skies (Zach Bryan) 2560
42 I Can Do It With a Broken Heart (Taylor Swift) 2544.4
43 Miles on It (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 2472
44 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2448
45 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 2438
46 End of Beginning (Djo) 2432.4
47 Type Shit (Future/Metro Boomin/Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 2403.4
48 Slow It Down (Benson Boone) 2380.6
49 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 2354.8
50 Gata Only (FloyyMenor/Cris Mj) 2348
51 Made for Me (Muni Long) 2320
52 Houdini (Eminem) 2279
53 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2277
54 Get It Sexyy (Sexyy Red) 2272.6
55 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
56 Ain't No Love In Oklahoma (Luke Combs) 2240
57 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
58 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 2221
59 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 2216
60 Whatever She Wants (Bryson Tiller) 2169.2
61 Truck Bed (HARDY) 2139.8
62 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 2136.2
63 La Diabla (Xavi) 2107.2
64 I Like the Way You Kiss Me (Artemas) 2096.8
65 Lunch (Billie Eilish) 2090.8
66 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
67 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
68 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 2049.2
69 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 2046.2
70 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
71 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1991.2
72 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1976.8
73 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
74 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
75 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
76 Act II: Date @ 8 (4Batz/Drake) 1950.4
77 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1885
78 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1877.4
79 Where It Ends (Bailey Zimmerman) 1874.2
80 Exes (Tate McRae) 1864
81 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1857
82 FE!N (Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 1850.6
83 Euphoria (Kendrick Lamar) 1846.8
84 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1846.4
85 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1844.6
86 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
87 Bulletproof (Nate Smith) 1805.2
88 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
89 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
90 Hot to Go! (Chappell Roan) 1665.6
91 Scared to Start (Michael Marcagi) 1657.2
92 Dirt Cheap (Cody Johnson) 1648
93 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1625.2
94 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
95 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1589.8
96 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
97 Stargazing (Myles Smith) 1574.4
98 Wind Up Missin' You (Tucker Wetmore) 1571.6
99 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1553.6
100 Man Made a Bar (Morgan Wallen/Eric Church) 1553.2 {Extras}102 One of Wun (Gunna) 1537.8
103 High Road (Koe Wetzel/Jessie Murph) 1516.4
104 Lies Lies Lies (Morgan Wallen) 1513
107 The Boy Is Mine (Ariana Grande) 1502
108 Chihiro (Billie Eilish) 1491.2
109 Pour Me a Drink (Post Malone/Blake Shelton) 1486
110 Band4Band (Central Cee/Lil Baby) 1478.8
113 Wildflower (Billie Eilish) 1436.4
117 I Am Not Okay (Jelly Roll) 1398
124 Whiskey Whiskey (Moneybagg Yo/Morgan Wallen) 1265.6
125 Think I'm In Love With You (Chris Stapleton) 1259.4
126 Si No Quieres No (Luis R Conriquez/Neton Vega) 1252.8
127 Red Wine Supernova (Chappell Roan) 1242.4
131 28 (Zach Bryan) 1199
133 Pink Pony Club (Chappell Roan) 1192.4
134 Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido (Karol G) 1191
139 Kehlani (Jordan Adetunji) 1138.4
140 TGIF (GloRilla) 1125
141 Belong Together (Mark Ambor) 1122.4
143 The Door (Teddy Swims) 1082.4
145 U My Everything (Sexyy Red/Drake) 1072.2
148 360 (Charli XCX) 1054.2
150 You Look Like You Love Me (Ella Langley/Riley Green) 1027.6
154 Devil Is a Lie (Tommy Richman) 1008.4
155 Nasty (Tinashe) 1005.6
163 Who (Jimin) 948
167 Mamushi (Megan Thee Stallion/Yuki Chiba) 934.8
174 Nights Like This (The Kid Laroi) 884.6
188 Beautiful as You (Thomas Rhett) 826
189 Die With a Smile (Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars) 825
191 Chevrolet (Dustin Lynch/Jelly Roll) 816.8 |
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lukulele
Charting
Joined: October 2018
Posts: 91
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Post by lukulele on Sept 11, 2024 9:37:01 GMT -5
Kendrick doing the Super Bowl might just help Not Like Us make 2025 year end list With the 2025 chart year starting by October (I think?) and Not Like Us has like a good chance of staying within the Top 15 range, it's likely that Not Like Us would not need the impact of Super Bowl LIX performance to get in the 2025 Billboard Hot 100 YE I really hope not like us makes the top 10 on this year end but it’s projected to place around 11-12. Just kind of shows that hip-hop is dying which is unfortunate because it was pretty awesome the SoundCloud era and years following it were really enjoyable. Loving on me more of a pop song than hip hop but I guess it means that only a pop hiphop song won’t make the ye top 10. Even the designated superior rapper of our generation Kendrick can’t make the top 10. Rap was more popular in ‘24 than ‘23 but it feels like that’s due to things the industry is doing (drake+Kendrick need mainly) rather than what the people want to listen to. Lyrical lemonade is dying, XXL means nothing that it used too, a ton of rappers are falling leaving only the core few biggest rappers that have been around for years. |
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kingvavis
Gold Member
Joined: September 2018
Posts: 847 
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Post by kingvavis on Sept 11, 2024 11:03:56 GMT -5
With the 2025 chart year starting by October (I think?) and Not Like Us has like a good chance of staying within the Top 15 range, it's likely that Not Like Us would not need the impact of Super Bowl LIX performance to get in the 2025 Billboard Hot 100 YE I really hope not like us makes the top 10 on this year end but it’s projected to place around 11-12. Just kind of shows that hip-hop is dying which is unfortunate because it was pretty awesome the SoundCloud era and years following it were really enjoyable. Loving on me more of a pop song than hip hop but I guess it means that only a pop hiphop song won’t make the ye top 10. Even the designated superior rapper of our generation Kendrick can’t make the top 10. Rap was more popular in ‘24 than ‘23 but it feels like that’s due to things the industry is doing (drake+Kendrick need mainly) rather than what the people want to listen to. Lyrical lemonade is dying, XXL means nothing that it used too, a ton of rappers are falling leaving only the core few biggest rappers that have been around for years. Huh? It's projected by Talk of the Charts to place in the top 6 of the year end list. You might be confusing it with Like That which is projected to place right outside the top 10. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 11, 2024 12:26:07 GMT -5
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Post by rowletpulse on Sept 11, 2024 13:57:34 GMT -5
What are the chances that Red Wine Supernova sneaks into the list?
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 12, 2024 1:42:56 GMT -5
Updated Billboard Year End Pace
*Red Wine Supernova,Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido,Whiskey Whiskey, and Pink Pony Club are removed cause they has no realistic chance of making the year end list
* I will include Die With A Smile and Taste next week once I learn of their point total
* Means they have recurrency issues
Week 48-Lies Lies Lies, Needs 55 more points averaged 120 this week
-Hot To Go!, Needs 92 more points averaged 123 this week
Week 49-
Week 50-Stargazing, Needs 162 more points averaged 74 this week
-Pour Me A Drink, Needs 226 more points averaged 89 this week
Week-51-*One Of Wun, needs 216 more points averaged 62 this week
-High Road, Needs 216 more points averaged 70 points this week
-I am Not Okay, Needs 338 more points averaged 97 this week
Week 52-*Wind Up Missing You, Needs 214 more points averaged 48 this week
-Band4Band, Needs 239 more points averaged 51 this week
-*Wildflower, Needs 278 more points averaged 66 this week
-*Chihiro, Needs 175 more points averaged 40 this week
Songs That Are Close (I label these as song that are going to be over 1300 points at current pace)
-*The Boy is mine is on pace for 1391
-28 is on pace for 1374
Now this is a new segment, my first prediction of the bottom 10 songs on the year end list
91-Yes And?
92.A Holly Jolly Christmas
93.Exes
94.Bullerproof
95.Wildflower
96.Wind Up Missing You
97.FE!N
98.The Painter
99.Down Bad
100.between 3 songs for me,The Boy Is Mine,28, and Dance The Night
And here’s explaining why I picked some and not other
Lies Lies Lies,Hot To Go,Pour Me A Drink,High Road,I Am Not Okay,Die With A Smile,Taste,And Stargazing are all pretty clearly going to make it. Only one I debated bottom 10 is Stargazing but I think it’ll chart past week 20
The two I have above cutoff is Wildflower and Wind Up Missing You
I think Wildflower makes it cause Billie is really pushing it and it seems to be a fan favorite on streaming
Wind Up Missing You Is definitely on thin ice in terms of making it cause it has to buck recurrency every week but I trust country radio to keep it afloat (it’s barely top 30 on country radio right now)
Spot 100 is definitely the hardest one for me to decide
I think the favorite is Dance The Night,28 has to keep up its gains and hold and The Boy is mine has to dodge recurrency on pop radio for 5 weeks which is way less predictable then country radio
Second most likely is 28 to me, next week it’s projected to get 84 points which if kept on current pace would mean it would tie Dance the Night in points. I’m personally rooting for this outcome cause I think universally we can agree 28 is one of the best songs of the year and even if you don’t like it as much it’s better then having a 18th repeat on the list
The Boy Is mine is the least likely that has a path, If it stays on pop radio for another 5 weeks it’ll end up most likely barely above Dance The Night, But it has to hope to stay on pop radio and prolly gain to hold off 28 and that song potentially gaining (If there’s a week 53,28 makes it easily and The boy is mine would too assuming it dodges recurrency)
Here’s the songs I didn’t choose and why
I think Chihiro falls off before week 20 and even if it dosent it’ll prolly lose enough points to not pass dance the night which you need to to have a shot at spot 100
Band4Band I believe falls off before week 20 as well because of its terrible streaming and declining radio
One Of Wun I don’t think will dodge recurreny,if it does it pretty solidly locks a top 100 spot but i cant see that happening
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Post by plankton5165 on Sept 12, 2024 12:25:56 GMT -5
How come no one's talking about Kehlani?
It's currently peaking at number 24, and if it charts for the rest of the chart year, it will have 16 weeks count towards the year-end.
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lukulele
Charting
Joined: October 2018
Posts: 91
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Post by lukulele on Sept 12, 2024 16:36:33 GMT -5
I really hope not like us makes the top 10 on this year end but it’s projected to place around 11-12. Just kind of shows that hip-hop is dying which is unfortunate because it was pretty awesome the SoundCloud era and years following it were really enjoyable. Loving on me more of a pop song than hip hop but I guess it means that only a pop hiphop song won’t make the ye top 10. Even the designated superior rapper of our generation Kendrick can’t make the top 10. Rap was more popular in ‘24 than ‘23 but it feels like that’s due to things the industry is doing (drake+Kendrick need mainly) rather than what the people want to listen to. Lyrical lemonade is dying, XXL means nothing that it used too, a ton of rappers are falling leaving only the core few biggest rappers that have been around for years. Huh? It's projected by Talk of the Charts to place in the top 6 of the year end list. You might be confusing it with Like That which is projected to place right outside the top 10. I was basing it off rockgolf and others on this sites projections |
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,784
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Post by mikerivera on Sept 12, 2024 17:52:20 GMT -5
Huh? It's projected by Talk of the Charts to place in the top 6 of the year end list. You might be confusing it with Like That which is projected to place right outside the top 10. I was basing it off rockgolf and others on this sites projections rockgolf and a lot of other people on this site base their projections on position alone. That isn’t accurate; you have to project based on real points like how Billboard does it if you want an accurate projection. TOTC is one of the only sources remaining who does that. AustinRioux3 also still does it, although he’s a few weeks behind. |
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,784
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Post by mikerivera on Sept 12, 2024 20:40:09 GMT -5
Speaking of which, given that it's been 5 weeks, I think it's time for another update on the J-D list with 15 weeks left. Very few songs have locked since last time, though many are now floating on the horizon.
1. Lose Control - Teddy Swims 746,700
2. Beautiful Things - Benson Boone 681,500
3. A Bar Song (Tipsy) - Shaboozey 664,500
4. I Had Some Help - Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen 629,800
5. Not Like Us - Kendrick Lamar 585,600
6. Million Dollar Baby - Tommy Richman 552,600
7. Lovin On Me* - Jack Harlow 545,900
8. Too Sweet - Hozier 533,600
9. Espresso - Sabrina Carpenter 530,700
10. I Remember Everything* - Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves 469,000
11. Like That - Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar 450,400
12. Stick Season - Noah Kahan 429,500
13. Saturn - SZA 370,000
14. Greedy* - Tate McRae 361,000
15. Fortnight - Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone 351,400
16. Please Please Please - Sabrina Carpenter 328,700
17. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - Billie Eilish 321,500
18. We Can’t Be Friends - Ariana Grande 319,400
19. Feather - Sabrina Carpenter 316,900
20. Good Luck, Babe! - Chappell Roan 316,800
21. Agora Hills* - Doja Cat 316,600
22. Cruel Summer* - Taylor Swift 314,000
23. Texas Hold ‘Em - Beyonce 285,500
24. Austin - Dasha 262,500
25. Carnival - Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. Rich the Kid & Playboi Carti 242,800
26. Pink Skies - Zach Bryan 241,700
27. Cowgirls - Morgan Wallen ft. ERNEST 238,300
28. Snooze* - SZA 227,900
29. Redrum - 21 Savage 225,900
30. Water* - Tyla 222,600
31. Wanna Be - GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion 221,600
32. I Can Do it With a Broken Heart - Taylor Swift 216,200
33. Fast Car* - Luke Combs 216,200
34. Yeah Glo! - GloRilla 210,200
35. Houdini - Eminem 210,100
36. End of Beginning - Djo 203,100
37. Miles On It - Marshmello & Kane Brown 201,300
38. Type Shit - Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott & Playboi Carti 195,700
39. Paint the Town Red* - Doja Cat 193,400
40. Never Lose Me - Flo Milli 192,700
41. Wild Ones - Jessie Murph ft. Jelly Roll 192,300
42. Slow it Down - Benson Boone 191,800
43. Gata Only - FloyyMenor & Cris Mj 190,100
44. Get it Sexyy - Sexyy Red 189,500
45. Made For Me - Muni Long 188,000
46. Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma - Luke Combs 185,000
47. Whatever She Wants - Bryson Tiller 183,000
48. LUNCH - Billie Eilish 182,800
49. I Like the Way You Kiss Me - Artemas 174,700
50. Euphoria - Kendrick Lamar 168,500
51. Last Night* - Morgan Wallen 165,700
52. Thinkin Bout Me* - Morgan Wallen 158,700
53. Is It Over Now? - Taylor Swift 157,900
54. Houdini - Dua Lipa 157,700
55. La Diabla - Xavi 156,900
56. Act II: Date @ 8 - 4batz ft. Drake 155,100
57. Where it Ends - Bailey Zimmerman 149,900
58. Yes, And? - Ariana Grande 147,300
59. Bulletproof - Nate Smith 143,200
60. FE!N - Travis Scott ft. Playboi Carti 141,600
61. Down Bad - Taylor Swift 140,300
62. Where the Wild Things Are - Luke Combs 139,400
63. Everybody - Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert 139,200
64. Lies Lies Lies - Morgan Wallen 134,500
65. Hot to Go! - Chappell Roan 130,800
66. Dirt Cheap - Cody Johnson 129,400
67. FTCU - Nicki Minaj 127,700
68. Scared to Start - Michael Macargi 126,800
69. Stargazing - Myles Smith 123,800
70. CHIHIRO - Billie Eilish 122,500
71. Get in With Me - BossMan Dlow 120,000
- - - - - - - - - - - projected cutoff - - - - - - - - - - -
72. Pretty Little Poison - Warren Zeiders 119,400
73. Man Made a Bar - Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church 118,900
74. Wind Up Missin You - Tucker Wetmore 118,600
75. High Road - Koe Wetzel ft. Jessie Murph 118,400
76. One of Wun - Gunna 118,400
77. Pour Me a Drink - Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton 117,600
78. What Was I Made For?* - Billie Eilish 116,200
79. Band4Band - Central Cee ft. Lil Baby 116,100
80. The Boy is Mine - Ariana Grande 114,100
81. 23 - Chayce Beckham 112,800
Others
83. WILDFLOWER - Billie Eilish 112,200
88. I Am Not Okay - Jelly Roll 106,200
95. Whiskey Whiskey - Moneybagg Yo ft. Morgan Wallen 98,900
97. 28 - Zach Bryan 96,900
98. Red Wine Supernova - Chappell Roan 94,700
100. I Think I'm in Love With You - Chris Stapleton 94,300
Si No Quieres No - Luis R Conriquez & Neton Vega 93,000
Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido - KAROL G 90,700
Pink Pony Club - Chappell Roan 88,100
TGIF - GloRilla 87,100
Kehlani - Jordan Adetunji 84,600
The Door - Teddy Swims 81,800
You Look Like You Love Me - Ella Langley ft. Riley Green 80,700
Belong Together - Mark Amber 79,100
360 - Charli xcx 78,800
Who - Jimin 74,800
Devil is a Lie - Tommy Richman 74,400
Nasty - Tinashe 73,400
Die With a Smile - Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars 71,700
Mamushi - Megan Thee Stallion ft. Yuki Chiba 70,900
Watch list
Chevrolet - Dustin Lynch ft. Jelly Roll 59,500
Guy For That - Post Malone ft. Luke Combs 58,300
Casual - Chappell Roan 53,900
Taste - Sabrina Carpenter 53,700
Big Dawgs - Hanumankind x Kalmi 50,500
Guess - Charli xcx ft. Billie Eilish 50,200
Takeaways:
-A Bar Song will pass Beautiful Things in the next few weeks. It is currently on pace to pass Lose Control in November. It's worth stating that Lose Control has been so stable that, while Shaboozey is likely to take the top spot, I cannot say with 100% certainty that it will happen. This is shaping up to be a 2022 situation when As it Was took until November to pass Heat Waves. The comparison actually makes a ton of sense, as the latter had been extremely stable for the entire year while the former spent 15 weeks at #1 but had only debuted in April.
-my predictions of the three songs to hit the top 20 (Please Please Please, Birds of a Feather, Good Luck Babe) all did so this week. All of them have an outside chance of pushing for the top 10 if they can exceed their current position (or even hold stable for the rest of the year). However, each of them will likely be competing for the same spot
-Pink Skies and Cowgirls both look likely to make the top 20. Another song that I missed last time was Austin. Despite its low peak, it's been stable enough that, at its current rate it can very well make it. The song it will have to pass will likely be either Fortnight or Greedy.
-do not expect the cutoff line to remain at 120k. It has dropped as a result of the dearth of songs locking. This is already changing, with Lies Lies Lies and Hot to Go securing their spot this week. Stargazing and Chihiro are close and can probably lock once they hit 20 weeks. Dirt Cheap is borderline, given this may be its final week.
-I've calculated a number of songs that aren't listed in TOTC's top 150. That should highlight a number of songs that will have a much better chance with this chart window.
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312999
4x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2021
Posts: 4,209
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Post by 312999 on Sept 12, 2024 23:10:11 GMT -5
This might be a no but is there any any chance that Dancing In The Flames by Weeknd can make it? If it debuts at 1 and stays in the top 5 until the end of the tracking system. I’d love for it to make it, but it’s surely a lock on 2025.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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Posts: 10,809
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Sept 13, 2024 0:59:51 GMT -5
This might be a no but is there any any chance that Dancing In The Flames by Weeknd can make it? If it debuts at 1 and stays in the top 5 until the end of the tracking system. I’d love for it to make it, but it’s surely a lock on 2025. We might be seeing another instance like "Hello getting to #35 at 2015 YE within 3 weeks", and given "Dancing in the Flames" has 2 extra weeks to spare This might also give Weeknd a serious chance of joining only an elite few to get multiple YE #1's at Billboard Hot 100 |
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mikerivera
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Posts: 1,784
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Post by mikerivera on Sept 13, 2024 6:33:45 GMT -5
This might be a no but is there any any chance that Dancing In The Flames by Weeknd can make it? If it debuts at 1 and stays in the top 5 until the end of the tracking system. I’d love for it to make it, but it’s surely a lock on 2025. We might be seeing another instance like "Hello getting to #35 at 2015 YE within 3 weeks", and given "Dancing in the Flames" has 2 extra weeks to spare This might also give Weeknd a serious chance of joining only an elite few to get multiple YE #1's at Billboard Hot 100 Lets pump the breaks massively. First of all, most YE1s hit their peak in the spring, so the timing is off for 2025 barring a complete surprise. Second, it will only get four weeks towards 2024, given the tracking week just started for 9/28. Third, do you realize how unique Hello was? Adele had released the biggest album this century, and then *vanished* for about 3 years. The Weeknd’s last album was two years ago (and underperformed compared to expectations), and he’s since released a greatest hits album, had an old song blow up, and has released songs from The Idol. And finally, we exist in a very different context than we did in 2015. Hello racked up over 100k points all of its weeks. That included a first week of over 1 million sales. Keep in mind the last song to hit 100k was Old Town Road, which did so on the back of over 100k sales, strong radio play, and most importantly, over 100 million streams. Today, sales are largely irrelevant, radio audience has massively shrunk, and Billboard no longer factors UGC into its streaming total. Which is why even this year when the entire nation was tuned in, Tortured Poets and the beef could only get their biggest songs into the 70k point range. It’s why 40k was weak for a #1 in the 2010s but is very strong in the 2020s. None of this is to say Dancing in the Flames won’t be big, but The Weeknd’s strength has always been more in longevity than in peak performance. He’s never even had a song debut at #1, and we don’t know that this will be his first. |
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Post by towinushinyu on Sept 13, 2024 9:43:33 GMT -5
will taste have a realistic shot of making it?
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,784
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Post by mikerivera on Sept 13, 2024 13:34:44 GMT -5
will taste have a realistic shot of making it? if it can hold a 20k/week pace, then yes |
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 14, 2024 23:26:53 GMT -5
Billboard Year End Artists 2024
Week 48
140,000 Is Cutoff
+1 Morgan Wallen 5 (I Had Some Help,Last Night,Thinkin Bout Me,Cowgirls,Lies Lies Lies)
Taylor Swift 5 (Cruel Summer,Fortnight,Is It Over Now?,I Can Do It With A Broken Heart,Down Bad)
________________________________
Drake 4 (Rich Baby Daddy,First Person Shooter,Act ll; Date @ 8,IDGAF)
________________________________
Billie Eilish 3 (Birds Of A Feather,What Was I Made For?,Lunch)
Jelly Roll 3 (Wild Ones,Need A Favor,Save Me)
Kendrick Lamar 3 (Not Like Us,Like That,Euphoria)
Luke Combs 3 (Fast Car,Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma,Where The Wild Things Are)
Playboi Carti 3 (Carnival,Type Shit,FE!N)
Sabrina Carpenter 3 (Espresso,Please Please Please,Feather)
SZA 3 (Snooze,Saturn,Rich Baby Daddy)
________________________________
21 Savage 2 (Redrum,Good Good)
Ariana Grande 2 (We Can’t Be Friends,Yes And?)
Benson Boone 2 (Beautiful Things,Slow It Down)
+1 Chappell Roan 2 (Good Luck Babe!,Hot To Go!)
Doja Cat 2 (Agora Hills,Paint The Town Red)
Future 2 (Like That,Type Shit)
Glorilla 2 (Yah Glo!,Wanna Be)
Metro Boomin 2 (Like That,Type Shit)
Nate Smith 2 (World On Fire,Bulletproof)
Nicki Minaj 2 (Everybody,FTCU)
Post Malone 2 (I Had Some Help,Fortnite)
Sexxy Red 2 (Rich Baby Daddy,Get It Sexxy)
Travis Scott 2 (Type Shit,FE!N)
Tate McRae 2 (Greedy,Exes)
Zach Bryan 2 (I Remember Everything,Pink Skies)
_______________________________
4Batz 1 (Act ll; Date @ 8)
Artmeas 1 (I Like The Way You Kiss Me)
Bad Bunny 1 (Monaco)
Bailey Zimmerman 1 (Where It Ends)
Beyoncé 1 (Texas Hold ‘Em)
Bobby Helms 1 (Jingle Bell Rock)
Brenda Lee 1 (Rockin Around The Christmas Tree)
Bryson Tiller 1 (Whatever She Wants)
Burl Ives 1 (A Holly Jolly Christmas)
Chris Stapleton 1 (White Horse)
Cody Johnson 1 (The Painter)
Cris Mj 1 (Gata Only)
Daesha 1 (Austin)
Dua Lipa 1 (Houdini)
Djo 1 (End Of Beginning)
Eminem 1 (Houdini)
ERNEST 1 (Cowgirls)
Flo Milli 1 (Never Lose Me)
Floyymenor 1 (Gata Only)
Gunna 1 (Fukumean)
Hardy 1 (Truck Bed)
Hozier 1 (Too Sweet)
Jack Harlow 1 (Lovin On Me)
Jesse Murph 1 (Wild Ones)
J Cole 1 (First Person Shooter)
Kacey Musgraves 1 (I Remember Everything)
Kane Brown 1 (Miles On It)
Kanye West 1 (Carnival)
Lainey Wilson 1 (Save Me)
Lil Uzi Vert 1 (Everybody)
Mariah Carey 1 (All I Want For Christmas Is You)
Marshmello 1 (Miles On It)
Megan Thee Stallion 1 (Wanna Be)
Miley Cyrus 1 (Flowers)
Muni Long 1 (Made For Me)
Noah Kahan 1 (Stick Season)
Olivia Rodrigo 1 (Vampire)
Parker McCollum 1 (Burn It Down)
Paul Russell 1 (Lil Bo Thang)
Rich The Kid 1 (Carnival)
Shaboozey 1 (A Bar Song)
Summer Walker 1 (Good Good)
Teddy Swims 1 (Lose Control)
Tommy Richman 1 (Million Dollar Baby)
Ty Dolla $ign 1 (Carnival)
Tyla 1 (Water)
Usher 1 (Good Good)
Victoria Monet 1 (On My Mama)
Warren Zeiders 1 (Pretty Little Poison)
WHAM! 1 (Last Christmas)
Yeat 1 (IDGAF)
Locked Next Week
N/A
Locked In 2 Weeks
Myles Smith’s First (Stargazing)
Post Malone’s Third (Pour Me A Drink)
Blake Shelton’s First (Pour Me A Drink)
Potentially Locked in 2 Weeks
Koe Wetzel’s First (High Road)
Jesse Murph’s Second (High Road)
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Abbaschand
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2016
Posts: 1,638
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Post by Abbaschand on Sept 17, 2024 9:23:20 GMT -5
4 weeks left, time for my Year-End projection.
1 Lose Control
2 Beautiful Things
3 I Remember Everything
4 Lovin' On Me
5 Stick Season
6 A Bar Song
7 Greedy
8 Cruel Summer
9 Espresso
10 I Had Some Help
11 Too Sweet
12 Not Like Us
13 Agora Hills
14 Million Dollar Baby
15 Saturn
16 Snooze
17 Like That
18 Paint the Town Red
19 Fast Car
20 Good Luck, Babe!
21 Water
22 Birds of a Feather (+1)
23 Feather (-1)
24 Austin
25 Last Night (+1)
26 Please Please Please (-1)
27 We Can't Be Friends
28 Thinkin' Bout Me
29 Cowgirls
30 Is It Over Now?
31 Miles On It
32 Wanna Be
33 Fortnight (+1)
34 Pink Skies (-1)
35 Wild Ones
36 Texas Hold 'Em
37 Ain't No Love In Oklahoma
38 I Can Do It with a Broken Heart
39 Slow It Down
40 Redrum
41 Carnival
42 Houdini (Em)
43 Rich Baby Daddy
44 What Was I Made For?
45 Houdini (Dua)
46 Yeah Glo!
47 End of Beginning
48 Vampire
49 Hot to Go!
50 Never Lose Me
51 Pretty Little Poison
52 Gata Only (+8)
53 Need a Favor (-1)
54 Get It Sexyy (-1)
55 Type Crap (-1)
56 Save Me (-1)
57 Made for Me (-1)
58 Lunch (-1)
59 Flowers (-1)
60 Lies Lies Lies (-1)
61 First Person Shooter
62 Whatever She Wants
63 Pour Me a Drink
64 I Am Not Okay
65 La Diabla
66 I Like the Way You Kiss Me
67 High Road
68 Everybody
69 Where the Wild Things Are
70 White Horse
71 F U Mean
72 Truck Bed
73 Lil Boo Thang
74 Good Good
75 Monaco
76 Dance the Night
77 World on Fire
78 Stargazing
79 IDGAF
80 28 (+6)
81 Exes (-1)
82 Kehlani (-1)
83 On My Mama (-1)
84 Act II: Date @ 8 (-1)
85 Burn It Down
86 Die with a Smile (NE)
87 Bulletproof
88 Yes, And?
89 Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido
90 Wildflower
91 Fe!n
92 FTCU
93 Band 4 Band
94 The Painter
95 Pink Pony Club (-11)
96 One of Wun (-1)
97 Where It Ends (-1)
98 All I Want for Christmas Is You (-1)
99 Whiskey Whiskey (-1)
100 TGIF (-1)
Songs that won't make the cut:
101 Euphoria
102 My Love Mine All Mine
103 Red Wine Supernova
104 Who
105 Used to Be Young
106 The Door
107 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree
108 Surround Sound
109 You Look Like You Love Me
110 Jingle Bell Rock
111 Chihiro
112 Dirt Cheap
113 The Boy Is Mine
114 Taste
115 You Broke My Heart
116 Man Made a Bar
117 360
118 Last Christmas
119 Selfish
120 Scared to Start
121 Down Bad
122 Get In with Me
123 Harley Quinn
124 Mamushi
125 Strangers
126 A Holly Jolly Christmas
127 Guy for That
128 Illusion
129 23
130 Wind Up Missin' You
131 One of the Girls
132 Think I'm in Love with You
133 Nights Like This
134 Big Dawgs
135 Chevrolet
136 500lbs
137 Get Him Back!
138 Perro Negro
139 Standing Next to You
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Post by realzhumabayev on Sept 17, 2024 12:25:15 GMT -5
Calendar Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Week 38: 1. Lose Control- Teddy Swims: 374
2. Beautiful Things- Benson Boone: 3323. I Remember Everything- Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves: 313 4. Stick Season- Noah Kahan: 3125. Lovin On Me- Jack Harlow: 289 6. Saturn- SZA: 253
7. Too Sweet- Hozier: 244 (+2)8. Feather- Sabrina Carpenter: 240 (-1) 9. Greedy- Tate McRae: 239 (-1) 10. Like That- Future & Metro Boomin ft. Kendrick Lamar: 22711. Espresso- Sabrina Carpenter: 218 (+1)
12. A Bar Song (Tipsy)- Shaboozey: 215 (+1)13. Agora Hills- Doja Cat: 214 (-2) 14. We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)- Ariana Grande: 204 (-2) 15. Austin- Dasha: 200 (+1)
16. Million Dollar Baby- Tommy Richman: 197 (+1)17. Cruel Summer- Taylor Swift: 195 (-2) 18. Not Like Us- Kendrick Lamar: 190
19. Good Luck, Babe!- Chappell Roan: 186
20. I Had Some Help- Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen: 18021. Wanna Be- Glorilla ft. Megan Thee Stallion: 166 (+1)
22. Cowgirls- Morgan Wallen ft. ERNEST: 165 (+1)23. Fortnight- Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone: 165 (-2) 24. Birds of a Feather- Billie Eilish: 163 (+2)
25. Miles On It- Marshmello & Kane Brown: 161 (+3)26. Redrum- 21 Savage: 155 (-2) 27. Yeah Glo!- Glorilla: 155 (-2) 28. Slow It Down- Benson Boone: 154 (+6)29. Snooze- SZA: 153 (-2) 30. Fast Car- Luke Combs: 150 (-1) 31. I Can Do It With A Broken Heart- Taylor Swift: 150 (+4)32. Texas Hold ‘Em- Beyonce: 150 (-2) 33. Water- Tyla: 150 (-2) 34. End of Beginning- Djo: 148 (-2) 35. Wild Ones- Jessie Murph ft. Jelly Roll: 148 (-2) 36. Pink Skies- Zach Bryan: 145 (+4)37. Never Lose Me- Flo Milli: 141 (-1) 38. Gata Only- FloyyMenor x Cris Mj: 140 (+3)
39. Please Please Please- Sabrina Carpenter: 140 (+6)
40. Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma- Luke Combs: 139 (+4)41. Made For Me- Muni Long: 138 (-4) 42. Paint The Town Red- Doja Cat: 138 (-4) 43. Get It Sexyy- Sexyy Red: 137 (-4) 44. Carnival- Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. Rich the Kid & Playboi Carti: 133 (-2) 45. Whatever She Wants- Bryson Tiller: 131 (-2) 46. Houdini- Eminem: 128 (+2)
47. Type Shit- Future & Metro Boomin ft. Playboi Carti & Travis Scott: 128 (-1) 48. Houdini- Dua Lipa: 124 (-1) 49. I Like The Way You Kiss Me- Artemas: 121 50. Is It Over Now?- Taylor Swift: 118 51. Lunch- Billie Eilish: 118 (+2)52. Last Night- Morgan Wallen: 117 (-1) 53. La Diabla- Xavi: 116 (-1) 54. Thinkin’ Bout Me- Morgan Wallen: 112 55. Where The Wild Things Are- Luke Combs: 111 56. Hot To Go!- Chappell Roan: 110 (+4)57. Everybody- Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert: 107 (-1) 58. Bulletproof- Nate Smith: 106 (-1) 59. Act II: Date @ 8- 4batz ft. Drake: 104 (-1) 60. FE!N- Travis Scott ft. Playboi Carti: 101 (-1) 61. Stargazing- Myles Smith: 101 (+3)
62. Where It Ends- Bailey Zimmerman: 101 (-1) 63. High Road- Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph: 100 (+2)
64. Pour Me A Drink- Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton: 97 (+4)65. Pretty Little Poison- Warren Zeiders: 97 (-3) 66. What Was I Made For?- Billie Eilish: 96 (-3) 67. I Am Not Okay- Jelly Roll: 94 (+8)
68. One of Wun- Gunna: 93 (+3)69. Yes, And?- Ariana Grande: 93 (-3) 70. Euphoria- Kendrick Lamar: 90 (-3) 71. Lies Lies Lies- Morgan Wallen: 90 (+11)
72. Truck Bed- HARDY: 89 (-2) 73. Band4Band- Lil Baby & Central Cee: 88 (+3)
74. Dirt Cheap- Cody Johnson: 88 (-4) 75. Exes- Tate McRae: 87 (-3) 76. FTCU- Nicki Minaj: 87 (-3) 77. Man Made A Bar- Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church: 87 (-3) 78. Flowers- Miley Cyrus: 85 (-1) 79. Wildflower- Billie Eilish: 85 (+5)
80. Selfish- Justin Timberlake: 84 (-2) ------------ Projected Cutoff ------------81. Burn It Down- Parker McCollum: 83 (-2) 82. Rich Baby Daddy- Drake ft. SZA & Sexyy Red: 82 (-2) 83. Vampire- Olivia Rodrigo: 82 (-2) 84. Save Me- Jelly Roll & Lainey Wilson: 81 (-1) 85. Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido- Karol G: 81 (+9)
86. Whiskey Whiskey- Moneybagg Yo ft. Morgan Wallen: 81 (+5)
87. The Boy Is Mine- Ariana Grande: 80 (+2)88. 28- Zach Bryan: 79 (+10)89. Get In With Me- Bossman Dlow: 78 (-4) 90. Pink Pony Club- Chappell Roan: 78 (+9)91. Red Wine Supernova- Chappell Roan: 78 (+6)
92. Chihiro- Billie Eilish: 77
93. TGIF- Glorilla: 77 (+7)94. Illusion- Dua Lipa: 76 (-8) 95. Scared To Start- Michael Marcagi: 76 (-8) 96. Surround Sound- JID ft. 21 Savage & Baby Tate: 76 (-8) 97. The Painter- Cody Johnson: 76 (-7) 98. Kehlani- Jordan Adetunji: 75 (+4)99. Down Bad- Taylor Swift: 74 (-6) 100. World On Fire- Nate Smith: 74 (-5)  |
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Post by reputainbow on Sept 17, 2024 17:16:28 GMT -5
{Week 48}1 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 10024
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 9109
3 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 8333
4 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 7942
5 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 7420
6 A Bar Song (Tipsy) (Shaboozey) 7258
7 Greedy (Tate McRae) 6843
8 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 6340
9 I Had Some Help (Post Malone/Morgan Wallen) 6276
10 Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) 5931
11 Too Sweet (Hozier) 5702
12 Snooze (SZA) 5632
13 Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) 5619
14 Million Dollar Baby (Tommy Richman) 5425
15 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 5257
16 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 5236
17 Like That (Future/Metro Boomin/Kendrick Lamar) 4972
18 Saturn (SZA) 4476
19 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 4447
20 Water (Tyla) 4203
21 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 4104.4
22 We Can't Be Friends (Wait for Your Love) (Ariana Grande) 3974
23 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 3887.6
24 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3844
25 Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) 3732.8
26 Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) 3687
27 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 3645
28 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3610
29 Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) 3526
30 Fortnight (Taylor Swift/Post Malone) 3525.2
31 Austin (Dasha) 3334.6
32 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 3268.8
33 Carnival (Kanye West/Ty Dolla $ign/Rich the Kid/Playboi Carti) 3265.6
34 Cowgirls (Morgan Wallen/ERNEST) 2904
35 Redrum (21 Savage) 2822.4
36 Wanna Be (GloRilla/Megan Thee Stallion) 2797
37 Pink Skies (Zach Bryan) 2698
38 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2673.4
39 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 2665.6
40 I Can Do It With a Broken Heart (Taylor Swift) 2660.4
41 Miles on It (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 2634
42 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2616.6
43 Yeah Glo! (GloRilla) 2568.8
44 Slow It Down (Benson Boone) 2498.6
45 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2448
46 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 2438
47 End of Beginning (Djo) 2432.4
48 Gata Only (FloyyMenor/Cris Mj) 2426.8
49 Ain't No Love In Oklahoma (Luke Combs) 2406
50 Type Shit (Future/Metro Boomin/Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 2403.4
51 Houdini (Eminem) 2373
52 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 2354.8
53 Made for Me (Muni Long) 2320
54 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2277
55 Get It Sexyy (Sexyy Red) 2272.6
56 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
57 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
58 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 2221
59 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 2216
60 Whatever She Wants (Bryson Tiller) 2169.2
61 Lunch (Billie Eilish) 2159.2
62 Truck Bed (HARDY) 2139.8
63 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 2136.2
64 La Diabla (Xavi) 2107.2
65 I Like the Way You Kiss Me (Artemas) 2096.8
66 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
67 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
68 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 2049.2
69 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 2046.2
70 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
71 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1991.2
72 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1976.8
73 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
74 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
75 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
76 Act II: Date @ 8 (4Batz/Drake) 1950.4
77 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1885
78 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1877.4
79 Where It Ends (Bailey Zimmerman) 1874.2
80 Exes (Tate McRae) 1864
81 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1857
82 FE!N (Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 1850.6
83 Euphoria (Kendrick Lamar) 1846.8
84 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1846.4
85 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1844.6
86 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
87 Hot to Go! (Chappell Roan) 1815.6
88 Bulletproof (Nate Smith) 1805.2
89 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
90 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
91 Stargazing (Myles Smith) 1672.4
92 Lies Lies Lies (Morgan Wallen) 1667
93 Scared to Start (Michael Marcagi) 1657.2
94 Dirt Cheap (Cody Johnson) 1648
95 Wind Up Missin' You (Tucker Wetmore) 1644.8
96 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1625.2
97 One of Wun (Gunna) 1624.6
98 High Road (Koe Wetzel/Jessie Murph) 1615.4
99 Pour Me a Drink (Post Malone/Blake Shelton) 1610
100 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595 {Extras}102 The Boy Is Mine (Ariana Grande) 1577.6
104 Chihiro (Billie Eilish) 1556.4
107 Band4Band (Central Cee/Lil Baby) 1550.4
109 I Am Not Okay (Jelly Roll) 1534
110 Wildflower (Billie Eilish) 1533.4
120 Whiskey Whiskey (Moneybagg Yo/Morgan Wallen) 1349.2
122 Think I'm In Love With You (Chris Stapleton) 1334.2
123 Red Wine Supernova (Chappell Roan) 1330
124 28 (Zach Bryan) 1325
126 Si No Quieres No (Luis R Conriquez/Neton Vega) 1320.4
127 Pink Pony Club (Chappell Roan) 1304.4
129 Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido (Karol G) 1297
130 Kehlani (Jordan Adetunji) 1272.4
132 TGIF (GloRilla) 1239
134 The Door (Teddy Swims) 1210.4
138 Belong Together (Mark Ambor) 1189.2
143 360 (Charli XCX) 1150.2
144 U My Everything (Sexyy Red/Drake) 1131
145 You Look Like You Love Me (Ella Langley/Riley Green) 1127.6
146 Die With a Smile (Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars) 1118
149 Who (Jimin) 1070
150 Nasty (Tinashe) 1060.4
151 Devil Is a Lie (Tommy Richman) 1060
155 Mamushi (Megan Thee Stallion/Yuki Chiba) 1024
164 Nights Like This (The Kid Laroi) 961.8
174 Chevrolet (Dustin Lynch/Jelly Roll) 908.8
175 Beautiful as You (Thomas Rhett) 890.4
184 Taste (Sabrina Carpenter) 861
187 Guy for That (Post Malone/Luke Combs) 852
194 Casual (Chappell Roan) 818.4
198 Big Dawgs (Hanumankind/Kalmi) 799.4 |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 18, 2024 12:18:37 GMT -5
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 18, 2024 22:37:42 GMT -5
Updated Year end Pace week 48
Instead of doing a normal one this week since they do take awhile instead I will do a full 1-100 Year End Prediction included with points
*Obviously these are rough estimates
1.Lose Control (9253)
2.A Bar Song (8057)
3.Beautiful Things (7637)
4.I Had Some Help (7475)
5.Not Like Us (6787)
6.Lovin On Me (6779)
7.Espresso (6438
8.Million Dollar Baby (6433)
9.I Remember Everything (6212)
10.Too Sweet (6171)
11.Stick Season (5323)
12.Cruel Summer (5137)
13.Greedy (5026)
14.Like That (4912)
15.Birds Of A Feather (4328)
16.Please Please Please (4283)⬇️
17.Good Luck Babe! (4283)⬆️
18.Agora Hills (4234)
19.Saturn (4138)
20.Snooze (3989)
21.Paint The Town Red (3766)
22.Fortnight (3514)
23.Fast Car (3468)
24.Water (3363)
25.Feather (3309)
26.Austin (3216)
27.We Can’t Be Friends (3194)
28.Last NIght (3002)
29.Pink Skies (2980)
30.Cowgirls (2977)
31.Thinkin Bout Me (2884)
32.Texas Hold Em (2855)
33.Is It Over Now (2773)
34.Miles On It (2640)
35.Wild Ones (2569)
36.I Can Do It With A Broken Heart (2563)
37.Aint No Love In Oklahoma (2511)
38.Carnival (2428)
39.Wanna Be (2423)
40.Houdini (2356) Eminem
41.Slow It Down (2302)
42.Redrum (2259)
43.Houdini (2116) Dua
44.Yah Glo! (2102)
45.Rich Baby Daddy (2090)
46.What Was I Made For? (2047)
47.End Of Beginning (2031)
48.Gata Only (2005)
49.Lunch (2000)
50.Never Lose Me (1977)
51.Lies Lies Lies (1958)
52.Type Shit (1957)
53.Hot To Go! (1937)
54.All I Want For Christmas Is You (1927)
55.Get It Sexxy (1895)
56.Made For Me (1880)
57.Vampire (1862)
58.Whatever She Wants (1830)
59.Rockin Around The Christmas Tree (1823)
60.Pretty Little Poision (1815)⬇️
61.Die With A Smile (1815) ⬆️
62.First Person Shooter (1790)
63.I Like The Way You KISS Me (1747)
64.Need A Favor (1745)
65.Save Me (1720)
66.Euphoria (1685)
67.Jingle Bell Rock (1675)
68.Truck Bed (1667)
69.Flowers (1642)
70.Where The Wild Things Are (1639)
71.Everybody (1637)
72.La Diabla (1627)
73.Last Christmas (1615)
74.Pour Me A Drink (1588)
75.White Horse (1586)
76.Lil Bo Thang (1582)⬇️
77.I Am Not Okay (1582)⬆️
78.Good Good (1565)
79.Act ll date @ 8 (1551)
80.High Road (1546)
81.Taste (1542)
82.Monaco (1528)
83.IDGAF (1514)
84.Stargazing (1513)
85.Fukumean (1503)
86.Burn It Down (1501)
87.Where It Ends (1499)
88.FTCU (1491)
89.World On Fire (1482)
90.On My Mama (1475)
91.Yes And? (1473)
92.A Holly Jolly Christmas (1466)⬇️
93.Wildflower (1466)⬆️
94.Exes (1464)
95.Bulletproof (1432)
96.Wind Up Missing You (1419)
97.FE!N (1416)
98.The Painter (1404)
99.Down Bad (1403)
100.28 (1395)
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Post by rowletpulse on Sept 19, 2024 14:14:52 GMT -5
Updated Year end Pace week 48 Instead of doing a normal one this week since they do take awhile instead I will do a full 1-100 Year End Prediction included with points *Obviously these are rough estimates 1.Lose Control (9253) 2.A Bar Song (8057) 3.Beautiful Things (7637) 4.I Had Some Help (7475) 5.Not Like Us (6787) 6.Lovin On Me (6779) 7.Espresso (6438 8.Million Dollar Baby (6433) 9.I Remember Everything (6212) 10.Too Sweet (6171) 11.Stick Season (5323) 12.Cruel Summer (5137) 13.Greedy (5026) 14.Like That (4912) 15.Birds Of A Feather (4328) 16.Please Please Please (4283)⬇️ 17.Good Luck Babe! (4283)⬆️ 18.Agora Hills (4234) 19.Saturn (4138) 20.Snooze (3989) 21.Paint The Town Red (3766) 22.Fortnight (3514) 23.Fast Car (3468) 24.Water (3363) 25.Feather (3309) 26.Austin (3216) 27.We Can’t Be Friends (3194) 28.Last NIght (3002) 29.Pink Skies (2980) 30.Cowgirls (2977) 31.Thinkin Bout Me (2884) 32.Texas Hold Em (2855) 33.Is It Over Now (2773) 34.Miles On It (2640) 35.Wild Ones (2569) 36.I Can Do It With A Broken Heart (2563) 37.Aint No Love In Oklahoma (2511) 38.Carnival (2428) 39.Wanna Be (2423) 40.Houdini (2356) Eminem 41.Slow It Down (2302) 42.Redrum (2259) 43.Houdini (2116) Dua 44.Yah Glo! (2102) 45.Rich Baby Daddy (2090) 46.What Was I Made For? (2047) 47.End Of Beginning (2031) 48.Gata Only (2005) 49.Lunch (2000) 50.Never Lose Me (1977) 51.Lies Lies Lies (1958) 52.Type Shit (1957) 53.Hot To Go! (1937) 54.All I Want For Christmas Is You (1927) 55.Get It Sexxy (1895) 56.Made For Me (1880) 57.Vampire (1862) 58.Whatever She Wants (1830) 59.Rockin Around The Christmas Tree (1823) 60.Pretty Little Poision (1815)⬇️ 61.Die With A Smile (1815) ⬆️ 62.First Person Shooter (1790) 63.I Like The Way You KISS Me (1747) 64.Need A Favor (1745) 65.Save Me (1720) 66.Euphoria (1685) 67.Jingle Bell Rock (1675) 68.Truck Bed (1667) 69.Flowers (1642) 70.Where The Wild Things Are (1639) 71.Everybody (1637) 72.La Diabla (1627) 73.Last Christmas (1615) 74.Pour Me A Drink (1588) 75.White Christmas (1586) 76.Lil Bo Thang (1582)⬇️ 77.I Am Not Okay (1582)⬆️ 78.Good Good (1565) 79.Act ll date @ 8 (1551) 80.High Road (1546) 81.Taste (1542) 82.Monaco (1528) 83.IDGAF (1514) 84.Stargazing (1513) 85.Fukumean (1503) 86.Burn It Down (1501) 87.Where It Ends (1499) 88.FTCU (1491) 89.World On Fire (1482) 90.On My Mama (1475) 91.Yes And? (1473) 92.A Holly Jolly Christmas (1466)⬇️ 93.Wildflower (1466)⬆️ 94.Exes (1464) 95.Bulletproof (1432) 96.Wind Up Missing You (1419) 97.FE!N (1416) 98.The Painter (1404) 99.Down Bad (1403) 100.28 (1395) What is White Christmas doing here? |
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Post by rowletpulse on Sept 19, 2024 14:16:18 GMT -5
Updated Year end Pace week 48 Instead of doing a normal one this week since they do take awhile instead I will do a full 1-100 Year End Prediction included with points *Obviously these are rough estimates 1.Lose Control (9253) 2.A Bar Song (8057) 3.Beautiful Things (7637) 4.I Had Some Help (7475) 5.Not Like Us (6787) 6.Lovin On Me (6779) 7.Espresso (6438 8.Million Dollar Baby (6433) 9.I Remember Everything (6212) 10.Too Sweet (6171) 11.Stick Season (5323) 12.Cruel Summer (5137) 13.Greedy (5026) 14.Like That (4912) 15.Birds Of A Feather (4328) 16.Please Please Please (4283)⬇️ 17.Good Luck Babe! (4283)⬆️ 18.Agora Hills (4234) 19.Saturn (4138) 20.Snooze (3989) 21.Paint The Town Red (3766) 22.Fortnight (3514) 23.Fast Car (3468) 24.Water (3363) 25.Feather (3309) 26.Austin (3216) 27.We Can’t Be Friends (3194) 28.Last NIght (3002) 29.Pink Skies (2980) 30.Cowgirls (2977) 31.Thinkin Bout Me (2884) 32.Texas Hold Em (2855) 33.Is It Over Now (2773) 34.Miles On It (2640) 35.Wild Ones (2569) 36.I Can Do It With A Broken Heart (2563) 37.Aint No Love In Oklahoma (2511) 38.Carnival (2428) 39.Wanna Be (2423) 40.Houdini (2356) Eminem 41.Slow It Down (2302) 42.Redrum (2259) 43.Houdini (2116) Dua 44.Yah Glo! (2102) 45.Rich Baby Daddy (2090) 46.What Was I Made For? (2047) 47.End Of Beginning (2031) 48.Gata Only (2005) 49.Lunch (2000) 50.Never Lose Me (1977) 51.Lies Lies Lies (1958) 52.Type Shit (1957) 53.Hot To Go! (1937) 54.All I Want For Christmas Is You (1927) 55.Get It Sexxy (1895) 56.Made For Me (1880) 57.Vampire (1862) 58.Whatever She Wants (1830) 59.Rockin Around The Christmas Tree (1823) 60.Pretty Little Poision (1815)⬇️ 61.Die With A Smile (1815) ⬆️ 62.First Person Shooter (1790) 63.I Like The Way You KISS Me (1747) 64.Need A Favor (1745) 65.Save Me (1720) 66.Euphoria (1685) 67.Jingle Bell Rock (1675) 68.Truck Bed (1667) 69.Flowers (1642) 70.Where The Wild Things Are (1639) 71.Everybody (1637) 72.La Diabla (1627) 73.Last Christmas (1615) 74.Pour Me A Drink (1588) 75.White Christmas (1586) 76.Lil Bo Thang (1582)⬇️ 77.I Am Not Okay (1582)⬆️ 78.Good Good (1565) 79.Act ll date @ 8 (1551) 80.High Road (1546) 81.Taste (1542) 82.Monaco (1528) 83.IDGAF (1514) 84.Stargazing (1513) 85.Fukumean (1503) 86.Burn It Down (1501) 87.Where It Ends (1499) 88.FTCU (1491) 89.World On Fire (1482) 90.On My Mama (1475) 91.Yes And? (1473) 92.A Holly Jolly Christmas (1466)⬇️ 93.Wildflower (1466)⬆️ 94.Exes (1464) 95.Bulletproof (1432) 96.Wind Up Missing You (1419) 97.FE!N (1416) 98.The Painter (1404) 99.Down Bad (1403) 100.28 (1395) What is White Christmas doing here? Oh, he meant White Horse lol. |
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 19, 2024 15:14:53 GMT -5
Fixed! Yes I did mean White Horse
Stupid auto correct🤦
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,126
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Sept 21, 2024 10:42:39 GMT -5
So after three weeks (where I was on vacay) I'm back with my (yes, position-based) year-end predictions for up to the week of Sep 21, 2024. Surprisingly, not much change given the 3 week gap: And since we're getting so close to the Billboard calendar year-end, the projected final year-end doesn't look a lot different. Proj.
Year
end | Song | Artist | YE
Est
Pts | | 1 | Lose Control | Teddy Swims | 10563 | | 2 | Lovin On Me | Jack Harlow | 8759 | | 3 | A Bar Song (Tipsy) | Shaboozey | 8296 | | 4 | Beautiful Things | Benson Boone | 8238 | | 5 | I Remember Everything | Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves | 8043 | | 6 | Cruel Summer | Taylor Swift | 7349 | | 7 | I Had Some Help | Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen | 7133 | | 8 | Stick Season | Noah Kahan | 6946 | | 9 | Greedy | Tate McRae | 6702 | | 10 | Espresso | Sabrina Carpenter | 6302 | | 11 | Too Sweet | Hozier | 6042 | | 12 | Not Like Us | Kendrick Lamar | 5654 | | 13 | Snooze | SZA | 5519 | | 14 | Like That | Future, Metro Boomin
& Kendrick Lamar | 5469 | | 15 | Million Dollar Baby | Tommy Richman | 5468 | | 16 | Agora Hills | Doja Cat | 5400 | | 17 | Paint The Town Red | Doja Cat | 5223 | | 18 | Saturn | SZA | 5161 | | 19 | Fast Car | Luke Combs | 4584 | | 20 | Good Luck, Babe! | Chappell Roan | 4499 | | 21 | Water | Tyla | 4413 | | 22 | Birds Of A Feather | Billie Eilish | 4237 | | 23 | Please Please Please | Sabrina Carpenter | 4160 | | 24 | Feather | Sabrina Carpenter | 4144 | | 25 | Austin | Dasha | 4088 | | 26 | Last Night | Morgan Wallen | 4050 | | 27 | We Can't Be Friends
(Wait For Your Love) | Ariana Grande | 3972 | | 28 | Thinkin' Bout Me | Morgan Wallen | 3832 | | 29 | Is It Over Now?
(Taylor's Version) [From The Vault] | Taylor Swift | 3765 | | 30 | Cowgirls | Morgan Wallen ft. ERNEST | 3648 | | 31 | Texas Hold 'Em | Beyonce | 3583 | | 32 | Miles On It | Marshmello & Kane Brown | 3514 | | 33 | Fortnight | Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone | 3408 | | 34 | Pink Skies | Zach Bryan | 3298 | | 35 | Wild Ones | Jessie Murph & Jelly Roll | 3296 | | 36 | Wanna Be | GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion | 3175 | | 37 | Ain't No Love In Oklahoma | Luke Combs | 3144 | | 38 | I Can Do It With A Broken Heart | Taylor Swift | 3119 | | 39 | Carnival | ¥$: Ye & Ty Dolla $ign
ft. Rich The Kid & Playboi Carti | 3066 | | 40 | Slow It Down | Benson Boone | 2982 | | 41 | Redrum | 21 Savage | 2948 | | 42 | Rich Baby Daddy | Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA | 2874 | | 43 | What Was I Made For? | Billie Eilish | 2852 | | 44 | Houdini | Dua Lipa | 2822 | | 45 | Hot To Go! | Chappell Roan | 2620 | | 46 | Vampire | Olivia Rodrigo | 2597 | | 47 | Never Lose Me | Flo Milli | 2576 | | 48 | Yeah Glo! | GloRilla | 2555 | | 49 | Pretty Little Poison | Warren Zeiders | 2507 | | 50 | End Of Beginning | Djo | 2472 | | 51 | Lies Lies Lies | Morgan Wallen | 2451 | | 52 | Flowers | Miley Cyrus | 2419 | | 53 | Type Shit | Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott
& Playboi Carti | 2417 | | 54 | Need A Favor | Jelly Roll | 2412 | | 55 | Save Me | Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson | 2403 | | 56 | Made For Me | Muni Long | 2390 | | 57 | First Person Shooter | Drake ft. J. Cole | 2369 | | 58 | Gata Only | FloyyMenor X Cris Mj | 2360 | | 59 | Pour Me A Drink | Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton | 2322 | | 60 | Houdini | Eminem | 2315 | | 61 | Get It Sexyy | Sexyy Red | 2307 | | 62 | I Am Not Okay | Jelly Roll | 2254 | | 63 | Whatever She Wants | Bryson Tiller | 2195 | | 64 | La Diabla | Xavi | 2167 | | 65 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 2162 | | 66 | Everybody | Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert | 2155 | | 67 | White Horse | Chris Stapleton | 2145 | | 68 | Where The Wild Things Are | Luke Combs | 2119 | | 69 | Lil Boo Thang | Paul Russell | 2102 | | 70 | Fukumean | Gunna | 2099 | | 71 | Truck Bed | HARDY | 2096 | | 72 | Good Good | Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage | 2079 | | 73 | I Like The Way You Kiss Me | Artemas | 2053 | | 74 | Lunch | Billie Eilish | 2034 | | 75 | Monaco | Bad Bunny | 2023 | | 76 | Die With A Smile | Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars | 2022 | | 77 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 2012 | | 78 | IDGAF | Drake ft. Yeat | 2009 | | 79 | 28 | Zach Bryan | 1980 | | 80 | Dance The Night | Dua Lipa | 1975 | | 81 | Yes, And? | Ariana Grande | 1969 | | 82 | Kehlani | Jordan Adetunji | 1968 | | 83 | World On Fire | Nate Smith | 1960 | | 84 | Exes | Tate McRae | 1944 | | 85 | On My Mama | Victoria Monet | 1944 | | 86 | Pink Pony Club | Chappell Roan | 1921 | | 87 | Burn It Down | Parker McCollum | 1836 | | 88 | Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido | Karol G | 1813 | | 89 | FTCU | Nicki Minaj | 1803 | | 90 | My Love Mine All Mine | Mitski | 1796 | | 91 | The Painter | Cody Johnson | 1789 | | 92 | Taste | Sabrina Carpenter | 1770 | | 93 | Bulletproof | Nate Smith | 1752 | | 94 | TGIF | GloRilla | 1734 | | 95 | Who | Jimin | 1730 | | 96 | FE!N | Travis Scott ft. Playboi Carti | 1713 | | 97 | Stargazing | Myles Smith | 1705 | | 98 | High Road | Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph | 1703 | | 99 | Jingle Bell Rock | Bobby Helms | 1694 | | 100 | Used To Be Young | Miley Cyrus | 1689 |
Espresso looks like it could make the year-end top 10. Had the year run longer, Tipsy would have a legit chance of being #1 of the year. It probably will on my complete Year-end once all its 2025 points are added in.
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Post by puwrpler04 on Sept 22, 2024 19:26:45 GMT -5
It’s looking like the only songs that are 50/50 to make the YE is Wildflower and 28
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 23, 2024 11:02:15 GMT -5
I haven't checked whether some of the assumptions in this video are reasonable.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,809
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Sept 23, 2024 18:54:47 GMT -5
I haven't checked whether some of the assumptions in this video are reasonable.
Two coincidences could be possible if the songs end up on the correct position and they're currently off by one: "Ain't No Love In Oklahoma" is currently expected at #37, but ending up at #36 means Luke Combs has a YE song end up at #36 for three straight years (The Kind of Love We Make at 2022, Love You Anyway at 2023, then Ain't No Love in Oklahoma at 2024) "Cruel Summer" (#18 in the 2023 YE) is currently expected at #12, but ending up at Taylor's number at #13 means it has the reverse Year-End trajectory as another Taylor Swift song, being "Shake It Off" (#13 in 2014 to #18 in 2015) |
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Abbaschand
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2016
Posts: 1,638
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Post by Abbaschand on Sept 24, 2024 10:56:55 GMT -5
3 more weeks for the chart year, time to check on my projection.
1 Lose Control
2 Beautiful Things
3 I Remember Everything
4 Lovin' On Me
5 Stick Season
6 A Bar Song
7 Greedy
8 Cruel Summer
9 Espresso
10 I Had Some Help
11 Too Sweet
12 Not Like Us
13 Agora Hills
14 Million Dollar Baby
15 Snooze (+1)
16 Saturn (-1)
17 Like That
18 Paint the Town Red
19 Good Luck, Babe! (+1)
20 Fast Car (-1)
21 Water
22 Feather (+1)
23 Birds of a Feather (-1)
24 Austin
25 Last Night
26 Please Please Please
27 We Can't Be Friends
28 Thinkin' Bout Me
29 Cowgirls
30 Is It Over Now?
31 Miles On It
32 Fortnight (+1)
33 Pink Skies (+1)
34 Wild Ones (+1)
35 Texas Hold 'Em (+1)
36 I Can Do It with a Broken Heart (+2)
37 Ain't No Love In Oklahoma
38 Wanna Be (-6)
39 Slow It Down
40 Redrum
41 Carnival
42 Rich Baby Daddy (+1)
43 What Was I Made For? (+1)
44 Houdini (Dua) (+1)
45 Houdini (Em) (-3)
46 Yeah Glo!
47 End of Beginning
48 Vampire
49 Hot to Go!
50 Never Lose Me
51 Pretty Little Poison
52 Gata Only
53 Need a Favor
54 Get It Sexyy
55 Type Crap
56 Save Me
57 Made for Me
58 Flowers (+1)
59 Lies Lies Lies (+1)
60 Lunch (-1)
61 First Person Shooter
62 Whatever She Wants
63 Stargazing (+15)
64 I Am Not Okay
65 Pour Me a Drink (-2)
66 La Diabla (-1)
67 I Like the Way You Kiss Me (-1)
68 High Road (-1)
69 Everybody (-1)
70 Where the Wild Things Are (-1)
71 White Horse (-1)
72 F U Mean (-1)
73 Truck Bed (-1)
74 Lil Boo Thang (-1)
75 Good Good (-1)
76 Monaco (-1)
77 Dance the Night (-1)
78 World on Fire (-1)
79 IDGAF
80 Exes (+1)
81 On My Mama (+2)
82 Act II: Date @ 8 (+3)
83 Burn It Down (+2)
84 28 (-4)
85 Pink Pony Club (+10)
86 Die with a Smile
87 Kehlani (-5)
88 Bulletproof (-1)
89 Yes, And? (-1)
90 Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido (-1)
91 Wildflower (-1)
92 Fe!n (-1)
93 FTCU (-1)
94 The Painter
95 One of Wun (+1)
96 Where It Ends (+1)
97 All I Want for Christmas Is You (+1)
98 Whiskey Whiskey (+1)
99 TGIF (+1)
100 Euphoria (RE)
Band4Band might not make it.
Next week will be the final projection of the year. I think posting 1 more (the penultimate week) after that will be redundant.
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