2024 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 12)

[Groovy]

Since Billboard wants to suddenly change their rules, it's time for the 2024 YE predictions. 

Past Projections
2013 Year End Projection
2014 Year End Projection
2015 Year End Projection
2016 Year End Projection
2017 Year End Projection
2018 Year End Projection
2019 Year End Projection
2020 Year End Projection
2021 Year End Projection
2022 Year End Projection
2023 Year End Projection

Credits

2013	Daniel Collins
2014	Daniel Collins
2015	broccoli
2016	georgetherunner314
2017	snoopdawg
2018	fhas
2019	rimetm
2020	Naomi
2021	PositivityMaster48
2022	PositivityMaster48
2023	Abbaschand

[PositivityMaster48]

Well um.. this is a shocking turn of events. I just wanted to say that I shall be continuing to do the predictions for 2024 but instead of having it as a tweet, I shall put all of it in list form. As for 2023, I will post the 2023 preds from Week 49 with all songs that charted back on the 2023 YE thread and post Week 1 and 2 on this thread in the coming days. Looking forward to see what 2024 brings.

[Groovy]

There's about to be a lot of repeats this year

[neel]

Oct 30, 2023 19:36:24 GMT -5 PositivityMaster48 said:

Well um.. this is a shocking turn of events. I just wanted to say that I shall be continuing to do the predictions for 2024 but instead of having it as a tweet, I shall put all of it in list form. As for 2023, I will post the 2023 preds from Week 49 with all songs that charted back on the 2023 YE thread and post Week 1 and 2 on this thread in the coming days. Looking forward to see what 2024 brings.

Just imagine if 2023’s No. 1 song of the year wasn’t so obvious and there had been some serious competition for the #1 song of the year (like in 2020 or 2017).

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

This can have a legit chance already of another instance of a repeat YE #1, with being either "Paint the Town Red" or "Cruel Summer"

[puwrpler04]

I’m very disappointed some of my Favorite songs like Watermelon Moonshine,Bad Idea Right?,and I Know? Will miss the year end as there all some of my favorites of the year

But I have to accept there chances are done

Welcome to 2024 year end predictions! Even if it’s shaky how we got here let’s get to my first prediction on what’ll make it

(I usually layout this one different to my middle of the year predictions)


Locks
Cruel Summer 100%-With this getting around 3-4 weeks at #1 and more time to gain throughout the year,this’ll have no problem clinching
Paint The Town Red 100%-This will 100% have enough radio support going into next year to clinch (there will be a lot of repeats this year)
I Remember Everything 100%-This has so much streaming and way more time to lock a spot then previously expected
Last Night 100%- ^
Thinkin Bout Me 100%- with The pop and country radio supporting this hard this’ll have no problems clinching


Very Likely
IDGAF,First Person Shooter,Rich Baby Daddy 95%- Not all of these will make it most likely but one of them will get the radio support to make it
Greedy 95%-This gets a boost with the year end change as this song gains more points on the new chart to almost make this a lock
Fast Car 90% -This’ll be bottom 50 on next years year end but this has enough radio and streaming to make it most likely
Monaco 80% -Bad Bunny got very lucky with this year end date change as this gets all it’s first week points on the new year helping this clinch.
Agora Hills 80%- With this being the next single and looking like it’s doing very well streaming wise this should be able to lock in a spot


Got a shot
My Love Mine All Mine 75%- TikTok songs do tend to have a short life span but I think this’ll be huge enough for awhile to make it
Water 75%- This will be huge but I need to see more before i call this very Likely
Stick Season 75%- This is looking to be big as well but idk how high it’s ceiling is
Get Him Back 75%- This’ll be a single any day now and will most likely start gaining streaming once it does
Fukumean 50%- This Also gets a boost with the Change in date.This and Vampire has no shot before the rule change but now they might be able to sneak in around the bottom 25
Vampire 50%- ^
Save Me 50%- Starting Date moving helps this on the 2024 charts but it’s still 50/50 depends on How the Radio gains then holds
White Horse 50% -^
Lil Bo Thang 50% -This oddly has good sales but needs more streaming to get into likely
Dance The Night 40% -same as above but this has more radio which might doom its chances
Flowers 40% -This does have a lot of weeks but if this can dodge recurrenty I can see this making it
Used To Be Young 40%- This gets a huge boost with the date being moved but I still don’t think it’ll be enough with this songs lack of any streaming
Good Good 40% -Not a lot of streaming but radio is rock started and still early in its run Plus ushers album plus Super Bowl will help this a lot and
Truck Bed 40%- This needs radio to actually catch on board which I think it will but I thinking streaming already peaked too early
Barbie World 30%-I just can’t see this holding up with the Barbie movie fading in the public day by day but I’ve been wrong before
Bad Idea Right?-30% Most likely Out with the date moved this would need radio to actually catch on which is very unlikely with her likely to push Get Him Back! As the radio single
I Know? 30% This needs more radio which it isn’t likely to get

Unlikely
Need A Favor 25%-Somehow still has a ton of radio but once it dips it’ll fall off quick
Dial Drunk 25% I could see this sticking it but ion think it’s likely
All My Life 15%-Will likely get knocked off by any sort of big album bomb
Religiously 15%-^
QLONA 10-Already peaked on streaming needs a revival
Hey Driver 10%- Needs a radio push to be in serious contention

What I Think Can Be Future Hits That Aren’t Charting currently
Where The Wild Things Are-Luke Combs
Man Made A Bar-Morgan Wallen,Eric Church
98 Braves-Morgan Wallen
Cowgirls-Morgan Wallen,ERNEST
Revival-Zach Bryan
Oklahoma Smokeshow-Zach Bryan
Sun To Me-Zach Bryan
Is It Over Now?-Taylor Swift

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 2}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 800
2 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 658
3 Snooze (SZA) 622
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 550
5 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 514
6 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 514
7 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 478
8 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 460
9 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 424
10 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 391
11 Fukumean (Gunna) 363
12 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 352
13 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 344
14 Greedy (Tate McRae) 320
15 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 320
16 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 308
17 Virginia Beach (Drake) 300
18 Barbie World (Nicki Minaj/Ice Spice/Aqua) 292
19 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 290
20 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 280
21 Anti-Hero (Taylor Swift) 274
22 Fina (Bad Bunny/Young Miko) 266
23 Religiously (Bailey Zimmerman) 260
24 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 250
25 All My Life (Lil Durk/J. Cole) 246
26 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 244
27 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 242
28 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 240
29 Kill Bill (SZA) 236
30 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 236
31 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 236
32 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 236
33 Water (Tyla) 236
34 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 223
35 Watermelon Moonshine (Lainey Wilson) 217
36 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 214
37 Daylight (David Kushner) 213
38 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 209
39 Hibiki (Bad Bunny/Mora) 206.4
40 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 206
41 Creepin' (Metro Boomin/The Weeknd/21 Savage) 204
42 Mr. October (Bad Bunny) 197.6
43 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 195.6
44 Try That In a Small Town (Jason Aldean) 193
45 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 191.2
46 Cybertruck (Bad Bunny) 186.4
47 Baby Nueva (Bad Bunny) 184.8
48 Telefono Nuevo (Bad Bunny/Luar La L) 177.6
49 Single Soon (Selena Gomez) 176.8
50 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 175.4
51 Un Preview (Bad Bunny) 174.6
52 Gently (Drake/Bad Bunny) 174.2
53 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 169
54 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 165.6
55 Seda (Bad Bunny/Bryant Myers) 164
56 Lose Control (Matt Simons) 163.8
57 Bongos (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 162.4
58 Meltdown (Travis Scott/Drake) 161.6
59 Calling for You (Drake/21 Savage) 160
60 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 158.8
61 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 158.4
62 Lady Gaga (Peso Pluma/Gabito Ballesteros/Junior H) 157.6
63 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 157.6
64 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 156.8
65 Daylight (Drake) 151.2
66 Say My Grace (Offset/Travis Scott) 144
67 What Would Pluto Do (Drake) 142.4
68 8am In Charlotte (Drake) 141.6
69 500LB (Lil Tecca) 140.8
70 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War/Treaty) 139.2
71 Nadie Sabe (Bad Bunny) 138
72 Lala (Myke Towers) 137.6
73 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 136
74 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 135.2
75 Fear of Heights (Drake) 134.4
76 Skeeyee (Sexyy Red) 132.8
77 Truck Bed (HARDY) 126.4
78 Turks & Caicos (Rod Wave/21 Savage) 125.6
79 3D (Jungkook/Jack Harlow) 125.6
80 Members Only (Drake/PARTYNEXTDOOR) 119.2
81 Better Place (*NSYNC/Justin Timberlake) 118.4
82 Bahamas Promises (Drake) 113.6
83 Too Much (The Kid Laroi/Jung Kook/Central Cee) 98
84 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 96
85 Gracias Por Nada (Bad Bunny) 88.4
86 Vou 787 (Bad Bunny) 87.6
87 Where She Goes (Bad Bunny) 86.8
88 Mercedes Carota (Bad Bunny/YOVNGCHIMI) 84.4
89 Los Pits (Bad Bunny) 81.2
90 No Me Quiero Casar (Bad Bunny) 78
91 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 77.2
92 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 75.6
93 Vuelve Candy B (Bad Bunny) 74
94 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 73.2
95 Peaches & Eggplants (Young Nudy/21 Savage) 72.4
96 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 68.4
97 Baticano (Bad Bunny) 67.6
98 One of Your Girls (Troye Sivan) 66.8
99 Mi Ex Tenia Razon (Karol G) 66
100 Thunder y Lightning (Bad Bunny/Eladio Carrion) 66

very rough start of predictions

[HamedM1 💔]

Rip bad idea right? I guess, let me go cry over that again.

[Groovy]

I would not be surprised if Cruel Summer ends being the number 1 song of the year atp.

[rockgolf]

The very very early status of the top 100 of 2024. For the chart week of Nov 4, 2023:

And an insanely early prediction of how many points these songs will get by the end of their chart run. Of course the regular Christmas blizzard of seasonal hits will greatly change these results.

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	5515
2	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	4604
3	Snooze	SZA	4053
4	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	3582
5	Fast Car	Luke Combs	3124
6	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	2777
7	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	2765
8	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	2703
9	Monaco	Bad Bunny	2671
10	Fukumean	Gunna	2594
11	First Person Shooter	Drake ft. J. Cole	1808
12	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	1783
13	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	1773
14	Greedy	Tate McRae	1750
15	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	1742
16	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	1731
17	Need A Favor	Jelly Roll	1697
18	Barbie World	Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice With Aqua	1607
19	Used To Be Young	Miley Cyrus	1589
20	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	1573
21	Water	Tyla	1172
22	Virginia Beach	Drake	1140
23	Religiously	Bailey Zimmerman	1100
24	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	1072
25	Good Good	Usher, Summer Walker & 21 Savage	1066
26	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	1063
27	Save Me	Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson	1055
28	Kill Bill	SZA	1049
29	Dial Drunk	Noah Kahan With Post Malone	950
30	What It Is (Block Boy)	Doechii ft. Kodak Black	926
31	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	753
32	Perro Negro	Bad Bunny & Feid	704
33	All My Life	Lil Durk ft. J. Cole	700
34	Daylight	David Kushner	657
35	Bad Idea Right?	Olivia Rodrigo	656
36	White Horse	Chris Stapleton	646
37	Creepin'	Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage	636
38	Lil Boo Thang	Paul Russell	635
39	Slime You Out	Drake ft. SZA	579
40	Daylight	Drake	569

[mikerivera]

I adore Cruel Summer, but if it winds up being the YE1 of 2024, a whole lot will have gone wrong.

[rockgolf]

mikerivera For once, I don't think the top 3 songs of the year have even been released yet. Maybe not even recorded!

And now the chart we've all been waiting for! Yes! It's the Top 100 of 2024 on the Canadian Hot 100! (To Nov 4, 2023)

[neel]

Nov 2, 2023 12:51:45 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I adore Cruel Summer, but if it winds up being the YE1 of 2024, a whole lot will have gone wrong.

I don’t think 2024’s going to be a stagnant year (hopefully not) like the past two years have been. We're LONG due for another mega-hit that pulls in monster points per week, and also, anything can happen in the next 12 months.

Still, I think CS is more likely to be the new chart year’s “Anti-Hero”. Even if it does, I won’t mind.

[jasper0102]

A bit late but lemme do my year-end predictions rn, mostly based on what’s currently charting (even if there’s a couple future hits here and there)

Guaranteed
Cruel Summer
Paint The Town Red
I Remember Everything
Thinkin Bout Me
Houdini
IDGAF
Greedy
Rich Baby Daddy

Likely
Where The Wild Things Are
Where It Ends
Is It Over Now?
Snooze
Fast Car
Last Night
Monaco
Water
Dial Drunk
Agora Hills
Lil Boo Thang
White Horse
Stick Season
Lose Control
Get Him Back
Strangers

50/50
Man Made A Bar
Cowgirls
Fukumean
Vampire
Dance The Night
First Person Shooter
Flowers
Need A Favor
Good Good
My Love Mine All Mine
Save Me
Daylight
I Know?
Pretty Little Poison
Wild Ones
On My Mama
500lbs
Truck Bed
The Painter

Unlikely
98 Braves
Used To Be Young
Barbie World
Virginia Beach
What It Is
Bad Idea Right?
Slime You Out
Single Soon

[rockgolf]

Got this field to myself so far? No surprise. For week 3 of presumably 52 (Nov 11, 2023)

And ridiculously inaccurate predictions of how these song will end up scoring:

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4933
2	Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4194
3	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	4001
4	Slut! (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	3746
5	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	3316
6	Snooze	SZA	3010
7	Say Don't Go (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	2905
8	Bad Blood (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	2549
9	Style (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	2430
10	Suburban Legends (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	2419
11	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	2091
12	Fast Car	Luke Combs	2050
13	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	2009
14	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	1989
15	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	1798
16	Blank Space (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1600
17	Welcome To New York (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1581
18	Out Of The Woods (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1563
19	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	1443
20	Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1440
21	All You Had To Do Was Stay (Taylor's Version)	Taylor Swift	1432
22	Monaco	Bad Bunny	1414
23	Fukumean	Gunna	1333
24	Greedy	Tate McRae	1310
25	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	1290

Pay no attention to this chart. Wasn't worth calculating.

[rockgolf]

And the Canadian YTD chart for Nov 11, 2023. On that chart The Beatles Now and Then charted this week at #79 (#129 for the year)! Not great, but consider it was only eligible for 14 hours. Sales should boost it even further next week.

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 3}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 1057
2 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 951
3 Snooze (SZA) 843
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 728
5 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 684
6 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 650
7 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 622
8 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 612
9 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 578
10 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 509
11 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 502
12 Fukumean (Gunna) 493
13 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 472
14 Greedy (Tate McRae) 458
15 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 452
16 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 422
17 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 406
18 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 400
19 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 388
20 Barbie World (Nicki Minaj/Ice Spice/Aqua) 386
21 Virginia Beach (Drake) 382
22 Water (Tyla) 348
23 Fina (Bad Bunny/Young Miko) 333.6
24 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 332
25 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 331.2
26 Kill Bill (SZA) 331
27 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 329
28 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 329
29 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 328
30 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 327.2
31 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 326
32 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 321.2
33 Slut! (Taylor Swift) 311
34 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 310.6
35 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 304
36 Daylight (David Kushner) 301.4
37 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 298.4
38 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 295.8
39 Watermelon Moonshine (Lainey Wilson) 292.6
40 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 284.8
41 Say Don't Go (Taylor Swift) 275
42 Anti-Hero (Taylor Swift) 274
43 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 274
44 Try That In a Small Town (Jason Aldean) 272.6
45 Religiously (Bailey Zimmerman) 260
46 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 252.6
47 Single Soon (Selena Gomez) 250.8
48 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 247.8
49 All My Life (Lil Durk/J. Cole) 246
50 Lose Control (Matt Simons) 241.8
51 Bad Blood (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 239
52 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 238.8
53 Un Preview (Bad Bunny) 235
54 Bongos (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 232.4
55 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 231.6
56 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 230
57 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 229.6
58 Meltdown (Travis Scott/Drake) 228.4
59 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 226.8
60 Lady Gaga (Peso Pluma/Gabito Ballesteros/Junior H) 226
61 500LB (Lil Tecca) 217.2
62 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 209.2
63 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 206.8
64 Hibiki (Bad Bunny/Mora) 206.4
65 Creepin' (Metro Boomin/The Weeknd/21 Savage) 204
66 Style (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 203
67 Lala (Myke Towers) 199.6
68 Mr. October (Bad Bunny) 197.6
69 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War/Treaty) 197.2
70 Skeeyee (Sexyy Red) 195.6
71 Truck Bed (HARDY) 190
72 Cybertruck (Bad Bunny) 186.4
73 Suburban Legends (Taylor Swift) 185
74 Baby Nueva (Bad Bunny) 184.8
75 Turks & Caicos (Rod Wave/21 Savage) 184.4
76 Telefono Nuevo (Bad Bunny/Luar La L) 177.6
77 3D (Jungkook/Jack Harlow) 175.6
78 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 174.8
79 Gently (Drake/Bad Bunny) 174.2
80 Blank Space (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 174
81 Welcome to New York (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 166
82 Seda (Bad Bunny/Bryant Myers) 164
83 Calling for You (Drake/21 Savage) 160
84 Out of the Woods (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 158
85 Too Much (The Kid Laroi/Jung Kook/Central Cee) 153.6
86 Daylight (Drake) 151.2
87 Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 146
88 Say My Grace (Offset/Travis Scott) 144
89 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 143.2
90 What Would Pluto Do (Drake) 142.4
91 All You Had to Do Was Stay (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 142
92 8am In Charlotte (Drake) 141.6
93 Thriller (Michael Jackson) 140
94 Nadie Sabe (Bad Bunny) 138
95 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 136.8
96 Fear of Heights (Drake) 134.4
97 God Gave Me a Girl (Russell Dickerson) 128.8
98 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 127.2
99 Shake It Off (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 126
100 New Romantics (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 124

[Groovy]

Let's see how Houdini performs before we make the conclusion that it'll be on the YE.

[eagle27]

Why can’t Billboard just instantly add up the data and release year end charts on January 1st? Especially now, Christmas is literally the perfect reset point and allows summer hits to finish up their pre-freeze chart run and have a show of top 10. Any songs that survive Christmas then rightfully deserve to rechart in the next year end.

[atg]

So it’s safe to say Cruel Summer will already be in the Top 10 of 2024 which is crazy to think about it being bigger than its run for the 2023 YE. If they hadn’t cut the year short it would’ve been a completely different story but it gives songs like CS, PTTR, and Snooze a massive head start to repeat high.

[neel]

Nov 12, 2023 0:39:21 GMT -5 atg said:

So it’s safe to say Cruel Summer will already be in the Top 10 of 2024 which is crazy to think about it being bigger than its run for the 2023 YE. If they hadn’t cut the year short it would’ve been a completely different story but it gives songs like CS, PTTR, and Snooze a massive head start to repeat high.

“Cruel Summer” looks like it’s going to be a fall/winter leftover hit like to say of “Closer”, “Rockstar”, “Circles”, “Mood”, “Stay”, “Anti-Hero”. So I won’t be surprised if it exactly ended up at No. 4 like “Anti-Hero” did on the YE list.

[Groovy]

I would be surprised if CS ended outside the top 10.

[theycallmedualian]

Nov 12, 2023 3:01:31 GMT -5 neel said:

Nov 12, 2023 0:39:21 GMT -5 atg said:

So it’s safe to say Cruel Summer will already be in the Top 10 of 2024 which is crazy to think about it being bigger than its run for the 2023 YE. If they hadn’t cut the year short it would’ve been a completely different story but it gives songs like CS, PTTR, and Snooze a massive head start to repeat high.

“Cruel Summer” looks like it’s going to be a fall/winter leftover hit like to say of “Closer”, “Rockstar”, “Circles”, “Mood”, “Stay”, “Anti-Hero”. So I won’t be surprised if it exactly ended up at No. 4 like “Anti-Hero” did on the YE list.

Anti hero charted for a full year before going RC cus it’s a brand new song, and it received 600 points on the first week of 2023 chart year.

8th-10th place will be very nice for CS

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I agree that it isn't impossible. Assuming it gets to 52 weeks on the Hot 100 before going recurrent, it would have 29 weeks that would count toward this year end. And we know how weak the Hot 100 currently is ...

[rockgolf]

For the week of Nov 18, 2023, here we are almost a month into the Top 100 of 2024. Weird.

And exceedingly early predictions on how currently charting songs' points total could end up.

Proj. Year end	Song	Artist	YE Est Pts
1	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	6070
2	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	5167
3	Snooze	SZA	4148
4	Is It Over Now? (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	4131
5	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves	3217
6	Fast Car	Luke Combs	3074
7	Thinkin' Bout Me	Morgan Wallen	3034
8	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	3027
9	Standing Next To You	Jung Kook	2905
10	Now And Then	The Beatles	2549
11	Fukumean	Gunna	2121
12	Greedy	Tate McRae	2094
13	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	2071
14	Rich Baby Daddy	Drake ft. Sexyy Red & SZA	2063
15	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	2049
16	Monaco	Bad Bunny	2040
17	Need A Favor	Jelly Roll	2007
18	Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	1918
19	Water	Tyla	1815
20	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	1750
21	IDGAF	Drake ft. Yeat	1695
22	First Person Shooter	Drake ft. J. Cole	1471
23	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	1423
24	Used To Be Young	Miley Cyrus	1376
25	Save Me	Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson	1327
26	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	1283
27	Lil Boo Thang	Paul Russell	1240
28	Say Don't Go (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	1183
29	White Horse	Chris Stapleton	1142
30	Slut! (Taylor's Version) [From The Vault]	Taylor Swift	946

Clearly a great deal will change. I would not be surprised to see The Beatles fall off the Hot 100 chart next week.

[rockgolf]

And finally my Canadian top 100 of 2024 predictions

[joshtheking]

Early guesses for what will make the year end:
-Cruel Summer
-Paint The Town Red
-Is It Over Now?
-Snooze
-I Remember Everything
-Fast Car
-Thinkin' Bout Me
-Last Night
-Greedy
-Fukumean
-Rich Baby Daddy
-Need A Favor
-Dance The Night
-Water
-Monaco
-Agora Hills
-IDGAF
-Save Me
-Flowers
-Lil Boo Thang
-What Was I Made For?
-White Horse
-My Love Mine All Mine
-Dial Drunk
-Daylight
-Stick Season
-I Know ?
-Wild Ones
-Lose Control
-World On Fire
-Get Him Back!
-Lovin On Me
-Houdini

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 4}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 1457
2 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 1280
3 Snooze (SZA) 1136
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 985
5 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 905
6 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 807
7 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 790
8 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 781
9 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 758
10 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 711
11 Fukumean (Gunna) 663
12 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 656
13 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 643
14 Greedy (Tate McRae) 636
15 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 630
16 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 618
17 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 568
18 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 558
19 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 520
20 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 503
21 Water (Tyla) 498
22 Barbie World (Nicki Minaj/Ice Spice/Aqua) 490
23 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 470
24 Virginia Beach (Drake) 468.8
25 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 454
26 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 451
27 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 446
28 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 443.2
29 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 438
30 Kill Bill (SZA) 437
31 Slut! (Taylor Swift) 431
32 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 424.6
33 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 419.8
34 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 415.6
35 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 412.8
36 Daylight (David Kushner) 411.4
37 Say Don't Go (Taylor Swift) 405
38 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 399.4
39 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 395.2
40 Fina (Bad Bunny/Young Miko) 394
41 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 376
42 Watermelon Moonshine (Lainey Wilson) 370.6
43 Try That In a Small Town (Jason Aldean) 361
44 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 360.6
45 Lose Control (Matt Simons) 340.8
46 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 338.8
47 Bad Blood (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 334
48 Single Soon (Selena Gomez) 330.4
49 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 325
50 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 319.2
51 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 311.6
52 Bongos (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 311.2
53 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 307.2
54 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 303.2
55 500LB (Lil Tecca) 303.2
56 Lady Gaga (Peso Pluma/Gabito Ballesteros/Junior H) 301.6
57 Style (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 300
58 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 298.4
59 Meltdown (Travis Scott/Drake) 298.4
60 Un Preview (Bad Bunny) 290.6
61 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 281.6
62 Suburban Legends (Taylor Swift) 277
63 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 275
64 Anti-Hero (Taylor Swift) 274
65 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 270.8
66 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War/Treaty) 266.4
67 Lala (Myke Towers) 264
68 Truck Bed (HARDY) 260.8
69 Religiously (Bailey Zimmerman) 260
70 3D (Jungkook/Jack Harlow) 259.2
71 Skeeyee (Sexyy Red) 258.4
72 Blank Space (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 256.8
73 All My Life (Lil Durk/J. Cole) 246
74 Turks & Caicos (Rod Wave/21 Savage) 242.4
75 Now and Then (The Beatles) 239
76 Welcome to New York (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 234.4
77 Out of the Woods (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 229.6
78 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 219.6
79 Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 218.4
80 Too Much (The Kid Laroi/Jung Kook/Central Cee) 208.4
81 Hibiki (Bad Bunny/Mora) 206.4
82 Creepin' (Metro Boomin/The Weeknd/21 Savage) 204
83 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 203.6
84 All You Had to Do Was Stay (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 200.8
85 Mr. October (Bad Bunny) 197.6
86 God Gave Me a Girl (Russell Dickerson) 190.8
87 Shake It Off (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 189.6
88 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 189.2
89 Stars Like Confetti (Dustin Lynch) 187.6
90 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 186.8
91 Cybertruck (Bad Bunny) 186.4
92 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 186
93 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 186
94 Baby Nueva (Bad Bunny) 184.8
95 New Romantics (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 180.4
96 Telefono Nuevo (Bad Bunny/Luar La L) 177.6
97 Clean (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 175.2
98 Gently (Drake/Bad Bunny) 174.2
99 Mi Ex Tenia Razon (Karol G) 174
100 Standing Room Only (Tim McGraw) 170

[puwrpler04]

Billboard Year End Predictions First Month edition

This’ll be the last one before all the Christmas Music swamps the charts

Cruel Summer 100% This might even clinch before 2024 starts which would be hilarious
Paint The Town Red 100% This has enough radio where it’ll stick around till mid 2024
Is It Over Now? 75% This is holding up stronger then I expected which gives this a good chance along with getting a boost with the Year end Starting sooner
Snooze 75% Assuming radio dosent free fall this’ll have enough traction to get bottom 50 of 2024
I Remember Everything 100% The streaming is so strong it’ll have no problem making it I could even see this being a sleeper to be #1 if radio gets behind it
Fast Car 70% Same as Snooze with just less radio
Thinkin Bout Me 100% With pop radio getting this it’ll have no issue
Last Night 100% The Streaming is just too strong for this to miss
Greedy 100% This is looking to be huge in 2024 and might even hit #1
Now That We Don’t Talk 50% Depends on if streaming holds as this won’t get the radio that Is It Over Now will be getting
Fukumean 50% Idk how well streaming will hold up in 2024 but it has a shot to hit the bottom of the list
Rich Baby Daddy 90% With this getting a lot of radio this’ll prolly have no issue barring a streaming collaspe
Need A Favor 40% This is on Pop Rock and Country which is why it lasted so long but recurrency is an issue for this one
Dance The Night 40% With this only really being strong on radio this could drop soon
Vampire 40% ^
Water 90% Also looking to be huge in 2024
Monaco 80% With billboard moving it’s year end date this really helps the chances of this song
Agora Hills 90% This is the song everyone likes from that Doja album so it’ll make it
IDGAF 75% With streaming ridiculously strong this will most likely make it
Save Me 50% This def has a shot but it needs to hold its streaming when the radio falls in a month or 2
Flowers 25% Recurring prolly means this falls short
First Person Shooter 60% Radio is behind this a little and with strong streaming this has a shot
Used To Be Young 40% This got help from the tracking date being earlier but it’s really week on streaming
Lil Bo Thang 60% Suprisingly strong on sales but needs to pick up streaming to make it more of a lock
What Was I Made For? 40% Radio will prolly drop this into next year so I think it falls just short
White Horse 60% Ridiculously good streaming for a Rock song to go along with country radio and Stapletons known longevity gives this a great chance
Good Good 50% Usher’s Super Bowl def increases it’s chances since it has no streaming
Slut! 50% This needs to keep up streaming and gain some radio but I could see it as this seems to be a fan favorite
My Love Mine All Mine 75% Is becoming a huge hit but might not have a lot of longevity since it is a TikTok song
Stick Season 90% This is also shaping up to be a big sleeper hit in 2024 and it dosen’t even have radio.
I Know? 40% Needs to keep up the radio momentum going into next year as once it’s gone it won’t have enough streaming to keep up
Bad Idea Right 30% ^ It also has to contend with Olivia pushing another single





Future Hits
Wild Ones
Lose Control
Pretty Little Poison
World On Fire
On My Mama
500lbs
Get Him Back!
The Painter
Truck Bed
Hey Driver
Burn It Down
Man Made A Bar
Where The Wild Things Are
Houdini
Lovin On Me
Cowgirls (when it gets pushed as a single)
98 Braves (if he pushes it as a single. I think he will after his billboard awards performance of it which was actually pretty damn good)

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 5}1 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 1857
2 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 1591
3 Snooze (SZA) 1429
4 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 1242
5 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 1144
6 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 1010
7 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 986
8 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 966
9 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 920
10 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 892
11 Greedy (Tate McRae) 857
12 Fukumean (Gunna) 813
13 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 796
14 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 776
15 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 775
16 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 772
17 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 738
18 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 682
19 Water (Tyla) 660
20 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 658
21 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 619
22 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 616
23 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 612
24 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 593.8
25 Barbie World (Nicki Minaj/Ice Spice/Aqua) 587
26 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 582
27 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 577
28 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 565.2
29 Virginia Beach (Drake) 552.4
30 Dial Drunk (Noah Kahan/Post Malone) 552
31 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 548.8
32 Kill Bill (SZA) 547
33 What It Is (Block Boy) (Doechii/Kodak Black) 536.6
34 Slut! (Taylor Swift) 524
35 Daylight (David Kushner) 512.4
36 Say Don't Go (Taylor Swift) 492.6
37 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 492
38 Bad Idea Right? (Olivia Rodrigo) 486.2
39 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 480.6
40 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 476
41 Slime You Out (Drake/SZA) 466.8
42 Lose Control (Matt Simons) 444.8
43 Try That In a Small Town (Jason Aldean) 442.2
44 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 437.8
45 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 407.6
46 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 403
47 Bad Blood (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 400
48 Single Soon (Selena Gomez) 398.8
49 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 396.8
50 Fina (Bad Bunny/Young Miko) 394
51 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 393.2
52 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 392.4
53 500LB (Lil Tecca) 392.4
54 Bongos (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 383.6
55 Rich Men North of Richmond (Oliver Anthony Music) 377.2
56 Style (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 374.8
57 Meltdown (Travis Scott/Drake) 371.6
58 Watermelon Moonshine (Lainey Wilson) 370.6
59 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 367
60 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 366.8
61 Everything I Love (Morgan Wallen) 364.4
62 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War/Treaty) 342
63 Truck Bed (HARDY) 339.6
64 Suburban Legends (Taylor Swift) 333.4
65 Lala (Myke Towers) 330.8
66 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 329
67 Skeeyee (Sexyy Red) 322
68 3D (Jungkook/Jack Harlow) 322
69 Blank Space (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 312.4
70 Now and Then (The Beatles) 308.2
71 Turks & Caicos (Rod Wave/21 Savage) 306.8
72 Can't Have Mine (Dylan Scott) 304
73 Lady Gaga (Peso Pluma/Gabito Ballesteros/Junior H) 301.6
74 Out of the Woods (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 291.6
75 Un Preview (Bad Bunny) 290.6
76 Too Much (The Kid Laroi/Jung Kook/Central Cee) 285.6
77 Wildest Dreams (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 279.6
78 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 274.4
79 Anti-Hero (Taylor Swift) 274
80 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 266.4
81 Religiously (Bailey Zimmerman) 260
82 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 256.8
83 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 256
84 Standing Room Only (Tim McGraw) 252
85 El Amor De Su Vida (Grupo Frontera/Grupo Firme) 247.2
86 Stars Like Confetti (Dustin Lynch) 246.4
87 All My Life (Lil Durk/J. Cole) 246
88 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 245.4
89 Welcome to New York (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 234.4
90 Mi Ex Tenia Razon (Karol G) 227.2
91 Hibiki (Bad Bunny/Mora) 206.4
92 Creepin' (Metro Boomin/The Weeknd/21 Savage) 204
93 All You Had to Do Was Stay (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 200.8
94 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 200
95 Cobra (Megan Thee Stallion) 197.6
96 Mr. October (Bad Bunny) 197.6
97 God Gave Me a Girl (Russell Dickerson) 190.8
98 Shake It Off (Taylor's Version) (Taylor Swift) 189.6
99 Cybertruck (Bad Bunny) 186.4
100 Baby Nueva (Bad Bunny) 184.8