Billboard Hot 100: 01/20/2024

[Ling-Ling]

Given how Lil Nas X's last debut single performed, not sure why people are acting like he's not competitive. With the right song and the right promo, he's definitely in the game.

[Choco]

I wonder what gimmicks Nas has prepared. He's smart but at some point I also think the controversy will just not ignite and I'll be very interested to see what happens.

His League of Legends song did little damage on the charts but who knows.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jan 7, 2024 20:41:02 GMT -5 Ling-Ling said:

Given how Lil Nas X's last debut single performed, not sure why people are acting like he's not competitive. With the right song and the right promo, he's definitely in the game.

I really don't like these 'she will take it easily', 'guaranteed #1', 'no competition' comments. I mean, yes, Ariana is a MUCH BIGGER artist on paper, she has more #1s than Nas X top 10s, and more top 10s than he has Hot 100 entries, and if they both release on the same day without MVs and promo, Ariana would be the CLEAR favorite, but with everything involved, he shouldn't be underestimated.

If we compare their previous lead singles, Montero opened with bigger numbers - 46,9M vs positions' 35,3M. I think the only way LNX can win this is the shock value, and the MV will probably play a huge part in that, but the problem is that the YT is pretty much dead for music, or at least much less influential and consumed than in 2021.

Pretty confident Ariana will take this, but definitely not writing LNX off. Much stranger things have happened before...I mean, a teenager without a top 40 song debuted with 76M streams - a number that is still unattainable 3 years later, even for streaming forces like Taylor and Drake.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I’m not sure LNX can win with something controversial again (if that’s the plan with this single). He’d benefit more with a legit banger because it would be unexpected (in a sense that people would be expecting something completely out of left field). But “J Christ” doesn’t sound like the name of a pop hit so who knows I guess.

[Deleted]

Obviously Ariana will "beat" Lil Nas X first week

[omieethehomieee]

I completely agree tbh .. He’s on TiKTok making videos about how he’s going to “expose the industry” and claiming they made him satanic which clearly what conspiracy theorists live for and literally trying to troll everyone. I want him to release a song with no gimmicks and trollling because it’s getting tiring atp….

Jan 7, 2024 22:09:59 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I’m not sure LNX can win with something controversial again (if that’s the plan with this single). He’d benefit more with a legit banger because it would be unexpected (in a sense that people would be expecting something completely out of left field). But “J Christ” doesn’t sound like the name of a pop hit so who knows I guess.

[SPRΞΞ]

he also has apparently "the biggest comeback of all time."

[velaxti]

Jan 8, 2024 1:36:26 GMT -5 omieethehomieee said:

I completely agree tbh .. He’s on TiKTok making videos about how he’s going to “expose the industry” and claiming they made him satanic which clearly what conspiracy theorists live for and literally trying to troll everyone. I want him to release a song with no gimmicks and trollling because it’s getting tiring atp….

Jan 7, 2024 22:09:59 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I’m not sure LNX can win with something controversial again (if that’s the plan with this single). He’d benefit more with a legit banger because it would be unexpected (in a sense that people would be expecting something completely out of left field). But “J Christ” doesn’t sound like the name of a pop hit so who knows I guess.

What exactly do you mean? The satanic symbols were pretty overt and transparent. I guess there is the question of whether he did it out of his own choice or whether he was manipulated/blackmailed into doing it, if that's what you mean.

[jdanton2]

when Ariana released Potions she had to go against Luke Combs who came quite close in points . i am rooting for Ariana but alot depends if people like the song.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 01/07/24

1(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 1,432,406 (-151,455)
2(=) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 1,198,748 (-106,183)
3(=) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,005,311 (-107,193)
4(+2) Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine 978,578 (-4,587)
5(=) Tate McRae - greedy 922,450 (-86,930)
6(-2) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 908,595 (-104,165)
7(+1) Xavi - La Diabla 847,504 (-72,353)
8(-1) Nicki Minaj - FTCU 826,685 (-111,271)
9(=) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 777,635 (-64,347)
10(+1) SZA - Snooze 747,957 (-50,867)

Other:
11(+1) Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 719,581 (-77,883)
12(-2) JID, 21 Savage, Baby Tate - Surround Sound 705,053 (-94,488)
13(=) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 694,357 (-79,272)
14(=) Drake, Yeat - IDGAF 659,838 (-64,873)
15(+2) Lil Tecca - 500lbs 658,942 (-36,006)
17(-2) Gunna - fukumean 643,840 (-56,916)
18(-2) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 638,505 (-60,672)
19(=) Travis Scott - I KNOW ? 635,333 (-59,079)
20(=) Drake, Sexyy Red, SZA - Rich Baby Daddy 626,026 (-49,738)
21(-3) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 618,009 (-76,692)
22(=) Xavi - La Victima 609,452 (-58,563)
23(+2) SZA - Kill Bill 602,882 (-39,040)
25(-4) Drake, J. Cole - First Person Shooter 581,122 (-87,000)
26(-2) Taylor Swift - Is It Over Now? 579,853 (-72,329)
28(-1) Tyla - Water 554,000 (-62,696)
29(+5) The Weeknd, JENNIE, Lily-Rose Depp - One of the Girls 545,734 (-20,801)
30(-1) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 543,597 (-46,291)
31(-1) Fuerza Regida, Marshmello - HARLEY QUINN 537,039 (-49,366)
32(+5) Frank Ocean - Pink + White 526,205 (-7,995)
34(-2) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 522,437 (-56,031)
35(-2) Tate McRae - exes 519,402 (-49,911)
36(-5) Nicki Minaj, Lil Uzi Vert - Everybody 518,300 (-66,347)
37(+2) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 516,295 (+545)
38(+7) TV Girl - Not Allowed 497,608 (+6,587)
39(-4) Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? 496,424 (-48,713)
40(-2) Peso Pluma, Anitta - BELLAKEO 480,398 (-53,706)
41(+6) Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder on the Dancefloor 468,216 (-12,219) *NEW PEAK*
43(-3) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 465,848 (-44,537)
44(-3) Calle 24, Chino Pacas, Fuerza Regida - Que Onda 463,290 (-42,386)
46(+5) Flo Milli - Never Lose Me 454,225 (-13,455)
49(=) Olivia Rodrigo - Can't Catch Me Now 443,337 (-27,885)
50(=) Kenya Grace - Strangers 442,464 (-28,038)
53(-1) Zach Bryan - Heading South 432,293 (-33,604)
55(-7) Luke Combs - Fast Car 426,338 (-52,540)
56(+19) Arctic Monkeys - I Wanna Be Yours 425,178 (-56)
58(-12) Bad Bunny - MONACO 420,750 (-60,015)
63(-10) Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 414,930 (-50,718)
64(-9) Zach Bryan, The War and Treaty - Hey Driver 413,033 (-48,403)
69(+16) PARTYNEXTDOOR - Break from Toronto 396,587 (-3,105)
78(-8) KAROL G, Peso Pluma - QLONA 383,864 (-47,744)
79(-20) Chris Stapleton - White Horse 383,087 (-65,388)
80(-7) Bad Bunny, Feid - PERRO NEGRO 382,215 (-46,422)
84(-3) Drake - You Broke My Heart 369,808 (-45,790)
85(-5) BigXthaPlug - Mmhmm 369,189 (-47,271)
86(+16) TV Girl - Cigarettes out the Window 367,985 (+8,737)
90(-6) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 362,400 (-40,264)
93(-4) The Red Clay Strays - Wondering Why 360,538 (-32,792)
94(-12) Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang 359,502 (-53,947)
95(-9) Taylor Swift - Now That We Don't Talk 358,602 (-37,681)
96(+14) Steve Lacy - Clouded 357,027 (+3,103)

101(-7) Taylor Swift - You're Losing Me 347,879 (-38,355)
103(+29) Ritchy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen 346,078 (+10,195)
104(-12) Jessie Murph, Jelly Roll - Wild Ones 345,018 (-45,050)
106(-10) Sabrina Carpenter - Nonsense 337,601 (-33,094)
118(-1) Peso Pluma, Tito Double P - LA PEOPLE 323,536 (-20,764)
126(-25) Warren Zeiders - Pretty Little Poison 316,311 (-43,934)
141(re-entry) 4batz - act ii: date @ 8 305,998
151(+35) Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten 298,543 (-2,696) *NEW PEAK*
155(-28) Peso Pluma, Junior H, Oscar Maydon - Rompe La Dompe 296,167 (-40,705)
156(-4) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 296,122 (-25,025)
163(-18) Grupo Frontera, Grupo Firme - EL AMOR DE SU VIDA 292,830 (-30,596)
166(-35) Juice WRLD, Eminem, benny blanco - Lace It 291,863 (-44,336)
172(-1) Taylor Swift - "Slut!" 287,045 (-21,428)
175(-37) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 286,122 (-42,788)
180(-18) Olivia Rodrigo - get him back! 284,309 (-29,465)
181(-32) Cody Johnson - The Painter 283,652 (-38,967)
182(-28) Dua Lipa - Houdini 282,726 (-36,610)
184(+4) Jung Kook - Standing Next to You 281,318 (-19,288)
186(-11) Drake - Virginia Beach 281,140 (-24,334)
194(-14) 310babii - Soak City (Do it) 274,821 (-29,308)

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

[Choco]

For thosw wondering if he was gonna resort to controversy again, here comes the religious imagery again.

tbh I feel like conservatives might not bite this time. When Demi did it last year no one cared.

[wavey.]

They were going to be pissed regardless.

[iHype.]

Eh. The religious gimmick is beyond tired at this point and feels late after “Unholy” and Doja’s imagery.

Will have to be a legitimate good song instead of relying on just controversy to truly be a hit.

[Choco]

Yeah I got the same immediate feeling of "ugh not this again".

[thatpolishboy]

Pulse: "omg the year is so boring we need new releases"

*Someone does a full rollout for a potentially massive single*

Pulse: "ugh, boring"

Some of you need to go touch grass lol

[Verisimilitude]

Ariana Vs. Lil Nas X, the first exciting chart race of the year!

[omieethehomieee]

Meaning, he’s trying to bait people into thinking that he was manipulated or forced to do something that he literally wanted to do himself. Especially giving this whole conversation surrounding around Hollywood “being exposed”. He wants the views and the clicks and it’s redundant.

Jan 8, 2024 7:39:28 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Jan 8, 2024 1:36:26 GMT -5 omieethehomieee said:

I completely agree tbh .. He’s on TiKTok making videos about how he’s going to “expose the industry” and claiming they made him satanic which clearly what conspiracy theorists live for and literally trying to troll everyone. I want him to release a song with no gimmicks and trollling because it’s getting tiring atp….

What exactly do you mean? The satanic symbols were pretty overt and transparent. I guess there is the question of whether he did it out of his own choice or whether he was manipulated/blackmailed into doing it, if that's what you mean.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jan 8, 2024 18:06:09 GMT -5 omieethehomieee said:

Meaning, he’s trying to bait people into thinking that he was manipulated or forced to do something that he literally wanted to do himself. Especially giving this whole conversation surrounding around Hollywood “being exposed”. He wants the views and the clicks and it’s redundant.

Jan 8, 2024 7:39:28 GMT -5 velaxti said:

What exactly do you mean? The satanic symbols were pretty overt and transparent. I guess there is the question of whether he did it out of his own choice or whether he was manipulated/blackmailed into doing it, if that's what you mean.

He’s a known troll. The only people who fall for his bait are those who actually believe a word he says. The song will probably have nothing to do with religion or Jesus or anything of the sort but by then everyone will have given their 2 cents. All that change adds up to some decent coin.

[iHype.]

Jan 8, 2024 13:05:17 GMT -5 thatpolishboy said:

Pulse: "omg the year is so boring we need new releases"

*Someone does a full rollout for a potentially massive single*

Pulse: "ugh, boring"

Some of you need to go touch grass lol

His rollout is being panned all over social media already for being predictable/corny also lmao. Nothing to do with Pulse.

Perhaps we can want new releases but also get bored of 1 particular gimmick from a specific artist? Neither scenario contradicts the other.

[wavey.]

I don't think It was too much imagery imo. He only did it with the 1st single from his debut(which stuck around obviously so I can see where ppl are upset). We'll see if he continues that with the follow ups cause he didn't with "INDUSTRY BABY" And "That's What I Want".

[Future Captain]

I think he's going to try to repeat the same pattern from Montero where they have the controversy bait as the lead before having the actual bangers for later singles. Also, between Lil Nas X and Doja Cat, it's becoming very apparent that the chronically online trolls turned pop stars are something so many people are yet to get accustomed to

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Looks like radio update are finally closer to normal:

Billboard Radio Songs Estimates | « 2024 » / « 01 » / « 09 »

1(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 79.11(+0.30)
2(=) Tyla - Water 66.24(+0.67)
3(=) Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red 65.76(+0.53)
4(=) Tate McRae - greedy 61.33(+0.71)
5(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 59.42(+1.11)
6(+1) SZA - Snooze 53.27(+0.28)
7(-1) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 52.44(-0.74)
8(+1) Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young 51.23(-0.37)
9(-1) Luke Combs - Fast Car 51.18(-0.51)
10(=) Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang 49.29(-0.68)

11(=) Nate Smith - World on Fire 48.89(+0.71)

69(+1) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 14.60(+0.93)

[musiclife]

Jan 9, 2024 12:43:32 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Looks like radio update are finally closer to normal:

Billboard Radio Songs Estimates | « 2024 » / « 01 » / « 09 »

1(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 79.11(+0.30)
2(=) Tyla - Water 66.24(+0.67)
3(=) Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red 65.76(+0.53)
4(=) Tate McRae - greedy 61.33(+0.71)
5(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 59.42(+1.11)
6(+1) SZA - Snooze 53.27(+0.28)
7(-1) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 52.44(-0.74)
8(+1) Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young 51.23(-0.37)
9(-1) Luke Combs - Fast Car 51.18(-0.51)
10(=) Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang 49.29(-0.68)

11(=) Nate Smith - World on Fire 48.89(+0.71)

69(+1) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 14.60(+0.93)

Damn Cruel Summer is gonna be on top for weeks.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yes. I think it might have a chance to challenge Flowers' 18 weeks at #1 of Radio Songs as the longest stay for a song by a female artist.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

21 Savage will release a new album on Friday that will served a soundtrack for a movie he will release. I wonder what kind of an album bomb it will get on the Hot 100.

[Studio Cart]

Hi what's the Billboard Hot 100's current formula?! Is there a post somewhere?

[clsvltn]

Jan 8, 2024 21:28:42 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

I think he's going to try to repeat the same pattern from Montero where they have the controversy bait as the lead before having the actual bangers for later singles. Also, between Lil Nas X and Doja Cat, it's becoming very apparent that the chronically online trolls turned pop stars are something so many people are yet to get accustomed to

I think the difference is Nas knows what he is doing and is being playful.  Doja, who I love, on the otherhand is kind of an unpredictable mess lol I think she is a bit crazy but may play into it but idk... some of the stuff she says and does is just straight up bizarre lol 

[kcdawg13]

I feel like honestly depending on how controversial the single is, Lil Nas X could take the top spot from Ariana next week. I feel like Lil Nas X is gonna be incredibly frontloaded meanwhile Ariana will probably deliver some Max Martin jam and do better longevity wise once radio is on board. It's a toss up, we'll have to see the first day streams to gauge how it'll go.

Anyways I'm just happy something exciting is happening because last year was boring as hell for the pop charts.