HITS 5/10: Taylor 286k (#1), Dua 84k (#2)

[Choco]

Agreed. I don't think this was the outcome the label or Dua expected even if they assumed it was going to be a leggy project... and the album hasn't even held up well this first week on most Spotify charts so...

They might get lucky with another single since I don't think Illusion is gonna majorly pick up anytime soon, but overall the label might be politely asking her very soon if there's any chance the next album doesn't take 4 years again. Or maybe she has some big collabs lined up and those save face. Even if FN was 4 years ago she had at least one major hit every year since to keep her out there.

[danielspice]

www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/dua-lipa-radical-optimism-number-1-album/

"Dua Lipa reaps the rewards of all that Radical Optimism this week, as her third studio album nets the biggest opening week for a British female artist in three years."

American audiences just don't appreciate Dua the way European audiences do. See e.g. One Kiss. Her career will be fine.

[getouttamyway]

Illusion is definitely not going to be the song that revitalises the era, honestly if there a potential hit on the album it would've been identified by now i.e. like with Agora Hills off Doja Cat's Scarlet or Made You Look off Meghan Trainor's Takin' It Back. With that being said, if there's one team that could potentially turn a non-hit into a hit that would be Dua's team, though obviously TaP no longer manages Dua.

Maybe they could get a hit or two off the deluxe, like what Shawn Mendes did with his third album in the form of Senorita.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

May 10, 2024 11:28:26 GMT -5 danielspice said:

www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/dua-lipa-radical-optimism-number-1-album/

"Dua Lipa reaps the rewards of all that Radical Optimism this week, as her third studio album nets the biggest opening week for a British female artist in three years."

American audiences just don't appreciate Dua the way European audiences do. See e.g. One Kiss. Her career will be fine.

It looks like Dua got her #1 in the UK mostly due to pure album sales. The three charting songs from TTPD are all above the ones from RO that managed to chart in the Official Singles chart.

[Choco]

I would have been way more shocked if she had missed #1 there.

[Maximillian]

I bet they are going to re-release the album with new material -- stronger material that the label has a firm say in -- and pushes a new single from that material in conjunction with a US tour announcement. Her team has said they want to do stadiums for the next tour, which I think she can sell out, but she will need an active HIT song on the radio to get tickets sold.

I realize she might not want to carry on the FN sound, but she might need to rely on that sound to get a huge US tour sold out. Or she will need to come up with another direction and sound that resonates quickly.

[fridayteenage]

What if she does that and doesn't get a hit anyway

[Choco]

I don't even think it's the material itself. They just have been kinda weird about promotion, and for every song that TikTok carries to hit-land without promo there's hundreds that never go viral, like her stuff lately.

I do feel standalones or a re-release will happen before the end of the year.

May 10, 2024 15:21:28 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

What if she does that and doesn't get a hit anyway

She moves on to another album altogether; hardly the first pop act that has faced that situation.

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming

LW	TW	Artist	Title	Label	Total	Change	Albums	TEA	SEA
1	1	TAYLOR SWIFT	THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT	REPUBLIC (UMG)	285,505	-36%	51,028	1,422	233,055
--	2	DUA LIPA	RADICAL OPTIMISM	WARNER (WMG)	83,814	--	52,788	1,028	29,998
2	3	MORGAN WALLEN	ONE THING AT A TIME	BIG LOUD/MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	71,563	7%	1,483	703	69,378
3	4	FUTURE & METRO BOOMIN	WE DON'T TRUST YOU	BOOMINATI/FREEBANDZ/REPUBLIC/EPIC (UMG/SME)	62,293	4%	188	403	61,702
--	5	SEVENTEEN	SEVENTEEN BEST ALBUM '17 IS RIGHT HERE'	PLEDIS/GEFFEN (UMG)	54,465	--	50,790	101	3,574
--	6	KANYE WEST & TY DOLLA SIGN	VULTURES 1	YZY (INDIE)	50,136	--	34,844	60	15,232
6	7	MORGAN WALLEN	DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM	BIG LOUD/MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	42,315	7%	432	279	41,604
4	8	BEYONCE	COWBOY CARTER	PARKWOOD/COLUMBIA (SME)	42,201	-19%	4,928	621	36,652
5	9	NOAH KAHAN	STICK SEASON	MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	40,675	1%	3,588	351	36,736
9	10	SZA	SOS	TDE/RCA (SME)	39,353	3%	1,948	112	37,293
7	11	BENSON BOONE	FIREWORKS & ROLLERBLADES	NIGHT STREET/WARNER (WMG)	37,538	-5%	991	967	35,581
11	12	ZACH BRYAN	ZACH BRYAN	WARNER (WMG)	36,743	4%	2,653	218	33,872
8	13	FUTURE & METRO BOOMIN	WE STILL DON'T TRUST YOU	BOOMINATI/FREEBANDZ/REPUBLIC/EPIC (UMG/SME)	31,318	-20%	81	50	31,187
17	14	ZACH BRYAN	AMERICAN HEARTBREAK	WARNER (WMG)	30,453	9%	764	238	29,451
13	15	POST MALONE	THE DIAMOND COLLECTION	MERCURY/REPUBLIC (UMG)	30,055	0%	287	243	29,524
12	16	ARIANA GRANDE	ETERNAL SUNSHINE	REPUBLIC (UMG)	29,868	-5%	2,632	197	27,039
15	17	OLIVIA RODRIGO	GUTS	GEFFEN (UMG)	28,981	2%	3,148	190	25,643
41	18	KENDRICK LAMAR	DAMN.	TDE/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE (UMG)	28,044	61%	1,943	92	26,009
16	19	DRAKE	FOR ALL THE DOGS	OVO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	27,804	-1%	34	83	27,688
14	20	TAYLOR SWIFT	LOVER	REPUBLIC (UMG)	27,698	-3%	6,005	369	21,323
22	21	TEDDY SWIMS	I'VE TRIED EVERYTHING BUT THERAPY (PART 1)	WARNER (WMG)	25,072	9%	2,478	1,364	21,230
20	22	TRAVIS SCOTT	UTOPIA	CACTUS JACK/EPIC (SME)	24,992	-2%	596	68	24,329
19	23	TAYLOR SWIFT	1989 (TAYLOR'S VERSION)	REPUBLIC (UMG)	24,786	-5%	7,247	257	17,282
--	24	KENDRICK LAMAR	GOOD KID M.A.A.D CITY	TDE/AFTERMATH/INTERSCOPE (UMG)	24,312	--	2,429	102	21,781
25	25	LUKE COMBS	GETTIN' OLD	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE (SME)	23,072	8%	564	352	22,157
--	26	THE WEEKND	THE HIGHLIGHTS	XO/REPUBLIC (UMG)	23,043	--	155	95	22,793
21	27	TAYLOR SWIFT	MIDNIGHTS	REPUBLIC (UMG)	22,766	-6%	5,447	259	17,059
27	28	BAD BUNNY	UN VERANO SIN TI	RIMAS (THE ORCHARD)	22,118	6%	126	51	21,941
--	29	4BATZ	U MADE ME A ST4R	4BATZ/GAMMA (GAMMA)	21,840	--	2,266	618	18,956
30	30	LUKE COMBS	THIS ONE'S FOR YOU	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE (SME)	21,443	4%	393	157	20,893
24	31	CHAPPELL ROAN	THE RISE AND FALL OF A MIDWEST PRINCESS	ISLAND (UMG)	21,257	-1%	1,672	104	19,481
28	32	PESO PLUMA	GENESIS	DOUBLE P/PRAJIN PARLAY (THE ORCHARD)	21,235	2%	23	41	21,170
26	33	FUERZA REGIDA	PA LAS BABY'S Y BELIKEADA	RANCHO HUMILDE/STREET MOB (SME)	20,776	-1%	7	26	20,743
23	34	LINKIN PARK	PAPERCUTS	WARNER (WMG)	20,667	-10%	3,165	193	17,308
34	35	21 SAVAGE	AMERICAN DREAM	SLAUGHTER GANG/EPIC (SME)	19,964	1%	215	79	19,670
33	36	HOZIER	UNHEARD	COLUMBIA (SME)	19,556	-3%	411	598	18,548
29	37	GLORILLA	EHHTHANG EHHTHANG	CMG/INTERSCOPE (UMG)	19,028	-8%	12	133	18,883
42	38	BAILEY ZIMMERMAN	RELIGIOUSLY. THE ALBUM.	WARNER NASHVILLE (WMG)	18,972	9%	259	235	18,478
32	39	TAYLOR SWIFT	FOLKLORE	REPUBLIC (UMG)	18,582	-8%	4,995	128	13,460
38	40	BOSSMAN DLOW	MR BEAT THE ROAD	ALAMO (SME)	18,384	4%	23	73	18,288
37	41	FLEETWOOD MAC	RUMOURS	WARNER (WMG)	18,288	3%	3,551	228	14,508
43	42	OLIVIA RODRIGO	SOUR	GEFFEN (UMG)	18,192	5%	2,207	90	15,894
48	43	ELTON JOHN	DIAMONDS	ISLAND (UMG)	18,082	6%	637	400	17,045
39	44	FRANK OCEAN	BLONDE	BOYS DON'T CRY (BLONDED)	18,078	3%	88	20	17,970
46	45	CREEDENCE CLEARWATER REVIVAL	CHRONICLE: THE 20 GREATEST HITS	FANTASY (UMG)	17,865	4%	1,668	217	15,980
36	46	BOB MARLEY & THE WAILERS	LEGEND	TUFF GONG/ISLAND (UMG)	17,859	-1%	3,436	203	14,221
35	47	BAD BUNNY	NADIE SABE LO QUE VA A PASAR MA?'ANA	RIMAS (THE ORCHARD)	17,792	-3%	195	43	17,553
47	48	LIL BABY	MY TURN	QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN (UMG)	17,565	2%	20	18	17,528
10	49	PARTYNEXTDOOR	PARTYNEXTDOOR 4 (P4)	OVO/SANTA ANNA (SME)	17,548	-53%	481	22	17,046
--	50	EAGLES	TO THE LIMIT: THE ESSENTIAL COLLECTION	ELEKTRA/RHINO (WMG)	17,343	--	1,902	262	15,179

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Looks like Dua will be #1 in Top Album Sales, just ending Taylor and Seventeen. She ended up with a projected 84k SPS.

[HEADOFTHEPACK]

That's not a bad jump from the previous estimates!

[Music Fan]

Actually not bad for Dua! If I were her label, I wouldn't be over the moon with these US numbers, but I'd be content.

[Maximillian]

Thats a big improvement! Good for her!

[avamaxstan]

Now wait... those numbers are actually pretty cute for Ms. Lipa, Outselling TTPD in pure sales, it shows she does have a fanbase, but without a big hit the SEA numbers suffered badly. 

[andrebra]

It will be very interesting to see if Billie can beat Taylor next week

[WolfSpear]

3 albums crossing the 50k mark in sales, a rarity these days.

[Choco]

Actually very OK numbers for Dua. All she was lacking was the hit single.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I still think everything below 100k isn't great for an artist like Dua, but this is really really solid now, and she doesn't have Don't Start Now this time.

[wavey.]

Wait Dua gagged! I know that's right. Will be her best US opener(so far).

[areyoureadytojump]

Latest YTD list has been posted by HITS:

hitsdailydouble.com/ytd_project_activity

RANK ARTIST | TITLE | LABEL YTD ACTIVITY ALBUMS SONGS AOD STREAMS VOD STREAMS

1 TAYLOR SWIFT | THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT REPUBLIC (UMG) 3,334,946 2,071,739 166,392 1,582,268,136 41,910,378

[balletgirlmom]

RADICAL OPTIMISM did great numbers. If not for Taylor Swift, Due would be #1!

[85la]

Wow, good for Dua, but how did her number end up so much higher than initital projections? Going from 55-65k at the beginning of the week, to 68k, and then suddenly finishing at 84k with the final numbers? How were these pure sales not part of earlier predictions?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^She had the SNL appearance and performances, as well as the Times Square concert. Both happened after HITS' earliest prediction. Without those, it is quite likely RO would have only marginally surpassed that in the best case scenario.

[balletgirlmom]

Dua did fine. Any artist would be happy with her numbers.

[fridayteenage]

May 12, 2024 22:45:51 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

Dua did fine. Any artist would be happy with her numbers.

would they

[wavey.]

May 12, 2024 22:45:51 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

Dua did fine. Any artist would be happy with her numbers.

Exactly, you get it. Could be worse. She did better than predicted, and a new album peak, a plus for her.

[suburbandreams]

May 12, 2024 11:08:31 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^She had the SNL appearance and performances, as well as the Times Square concert. Both happened after HITS' earliest prediction. Without those, it is quite likely RO would have only marginally surpassed that in the best case scenario.

The increase was due to pure sales not streaming so that promo likely did little.

Since the increase was pure sales related, it means that the second week drop will be even bigger so sales are much more front loaded than streams.

It does show that she actually does have a  moderatly sized fandom that will buy her labels.

[goldrush]

May 12, 2024 22:45:51 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

Dua did fine. Any artist would be happy with her numbers.

Most artists yes, but probably not artists of her caliber. Her label clearly invests as much in her career as other “top” artists (think Beyoncé, Ariana, Taylor, Post, etc), but she only debuts with a fraction of their streams/sales. Those are the type of artists she’s considered peers with. I don’t know if this strategy is sustainable for her label at least in the US (her popularity internationally is more impressive).

[85la]

May 13, 2024 2:39:31 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

May 12, 2024 11:08:31 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^She had the SNL appearance and performances, as well as the Times Square concert. Both happened after HITS' earliest prediction. Without those, it is quite likely RO would have only marginally surpassed that in the best case scenario.

The increase was due to pure sales not streaming so that promo likely did little.

Since the increase was pure sales related, it means that the second week drop will be even bigger so sales are much more front loaded than streams.

It does show that she actually does have a  moderatly sized fandom that will buy her labels.

Exactly, so my question is why did HITS underestimate the pure sales by so much? Maybe there were many preorders they didn't know about.

[avamaxstan]

May 13, 2024 3:57:15 GMT -5 goldrush said:

May 12, 2024 22:45:51 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

Dua did fine. Any artist would be happy with her numbers.

Most artists yes, but probably not artists of her caliber. Her label clearly invests as much in her career as other “top” artists (think Beyoncé, Ariana, Taylor, Post, etc), but she only debuts with a fraction of their streams/sales. Those are the type of artists she’s considered peers with. I don’t know if this strategy is sustainable for her label at least in the US (her popularity internationally is more impressive).

...Who considers Dua a peer of Taylor and Beyonce?