HITS 5/10: Taylor 286k (#1), Dua 84k (#2)

[areyoureadytojump]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=341121&title=NEW-RELEASE%253A-LIPA-IN-LINE-FOR-A-TOP-DEBUT

Saturday, May 4, 2024

NEW RELEASE: LIPA IN LINE FOR A TOP DEBUT

Warner's Dua Lipa will have the top debut on next week's HITS Top 50 with her third album Radical Optimism. We anticipate that Lipa's 11-track set will open in the range of 55-65k.

Taylor Swift's THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT (Republic) will log a third consecutive week at #1.

For reference, Lipa's Future Nostalgia opened with 66k. Total U.S. activity for Dua's sophomore LP is now at 4.3m.

[ontopofthis]

Even Lizzo's Special and Tate McRae's recent project opened higher than that

[wavey.]

Matching FN, that's not bad!

[HEADOFTHEPACK]

Copying over my post from the Dua thread...

I don't agree with the doom and gloom re. numbers. They look about as expected. She isn't an album artist at all and I think in the US especially, she's only really as big as her last single at this point.

Not convinced they'll be that bothered in these early stages either. Quote from Dua in a Guardian interview from this weekend:

New Rules was her first No 1 in the UK. In the US, it bubbled around in the lower reaches of the Top 100 until it finally reached the Top 10 six months later. Her first album, simply titled Dua Lipa, was also a sleeper hit. She says this has become a pattern for her records in the US. “They don’t go to No 1, but they stick around and they’re around for a long time. And that’s about patience. That’s about just letting things do their thing; not forcing them.”

I'm not trying to claim there will be fireworks and champagne popping in their offices, or that this record has been expertly handled so far, but Warner play a long game with Dua. I don't think the success of FN changes that too much.

[Choco]

About what I expected tbh.

If they can somehow get a hit single to give it some legs it won't be terrible. Otherwise they can move on soon.

At this stage her commercial status lives and dies by how big her singles get so the album number isn't the end of the world, but her team needs to put in the work.

[aussie1]

May 4, 2024 12:42:42 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Even Lizzo's Special and Tate McRae's recent project opened higher than that

Both of these projects had a huge smash hit attached. 

RO does not, the best it has is Houdini which was released near 6 months ago. 

[salt]

The most shocking thing to me is that FN only opened with 66k. I've always thought of that album as one of the BIG pandemic releases, but I guess she's one of those artists that has about a billion hit singles but that success doesn't translate to albums.

[Choco]

May 4, 2024 22:29:34 GMT -5 salt said:

The most shocking thing to me is that FN only opened with 66k. I've always thought of that album as one of the BIG pandemic releases, but I guess she's one of those artists that has about a billion hit singles but that success doesn't translate to albums.

It was one of the big pandemic releases because they kept working it for about two years. The old singles game still works, it's just that no one is willing to play the long game anymore.

[balletgirlmom]

What is wrong with 55-65K?  I think those numbers are great.

[¤ Matthea ¤]

May 4, 2024 22:29:34 GMT -5 salt said:

The most shocking thing to me is that FN only opened with 66k. I've always thought of that album as one of the BIG pandemic releases, but I guess she's one of those artists that has about a billion hit singles but that success doesn't translate to albums.

That's really not all that surprising. She is a pop artist that started releasing music in 2016 (singles) and her debut album was released in 2017. So that's what, the end of digital downloads, beginning of the streaming era. Since her first era it was all about releasing a lot of singles.

[avamaxstan]

May 5, 2024 5:13:03 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

What is wrong with 55-65K?  I think those numbers are great.

After one of the biggest eras of the decade, her run of huge singles, and a sold out arena tour… the numbers are pretty horrendous. She should be doing at least 100k.

[fridayteenage]

May 4, 2024 12:42:42 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Even Lizzo's Special and Tate McRae's recent project opened higher than that

b listers as far as albums go.
sometimes able to get TikTok hits when the audience feels like it.

[getouttamyway]

May 4, 2024 22:29:34 GMT -5 salt said:

The most shocking thing to me is that FN only opened with 66k. I've always thought of that album as one of the BIG pandemic releases, but I guess she's one of those artists that has about a billion hit singles but that success doesn't translate to albums.

Did you not read the part where the article mentioned that Future Nostalgia is now at 4.3 million units? How did her single success not translate to albums?

[Love Plastic Love]

May 4, 2024 22:29:34 GMT -5 salt said:

The most shocking thing to me is that FN only opened with 66k. I've always thought of that album as one of the BIG pandemic releases, but I guess she's one of those artists that has about a billion hit singles but that success doesn't translate to albums.

She was still essentially a no-name or possible one hit or two hit wonder when it was released. It was definitely one of those cds that smashed through repeated single success and steady sales/longevity/promo VS initial huge first week sales.

That might happen with the newer cd too, but it feels like she should have some more leverage coming after FN and Barbie than she did. Then again, all it takes is one song to connect.

[fridayteenage]

Well, the sales/CDs are still quite low IIRC.

Bunch of streams tho.

[tobichartmaster]

May 5, 2024 5:13:03 GMT -5 balletgirlmom said:

What is wrong with 55-65K?  I think those numbers are great.

If you would consider 55k as good, what do you consider bad numbers?

[badrobot]

I think Dua just really miscalculated what she needed at this point in her career. She's still doing the generic songwriting camp thing when she really needed a bold swing at something with a clear personality/point of view. This should've been a statement album but it's very much more of the same.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

TOP 20: A SWIFT THREE-PEAT

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Taylor Swift scores a three-peat as THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT (Republic) collects another week at #1. The record-breaking set pushes past the 3.3m mark in total activity, with more than 2m in pure album sales and 1.5b on-demand audio streams. Meanwhile, Dua Lipa’s Radical Optimism (Warner) is on track to bow in the Top 3. And following its digital release last week, SEVENTEEN’s SEVENTEEN BEST ALBUM ’17 IS RIGHT HERE’ (Pledis/Geffen) is expected to open in the Top 10.

Now if you'll excuse us, Stormy Daniels is still testifying, which is awesome if she doesn't get too specific.

[morgan96]

One thing at a time stable hit album
Dangerous the double album? Diamond certification is coming fast

[Gary]

At 142-143 weeks in the top 10 for Dangerous, the all time record is suddenly just 30 weeks away

[iHype.]

It doesn't make any sense for Billboard to count the non-online charts pre-dating Billboard 200 for records, but then to conclude the non-online charts pre-dating Hot 100 do not count for records.

I'm sure they'll eventually just call a spade on that one day. Besides, the album sales chart in the 1950s is about as relevant as the pure sales in 2024 in the grand scheme. The biggest albums of the entire decade spent years in the top 10 yet barely sold 1 million. 

[fridayteenage]

I thought they don't count pre-Hot 100 records because there were 3 different charts each counting a totally different thing; sales, radio, and jukeboxes.
Like if Sales, Radio, and Streaming these days were charts without any attempt to aggregate them together.

ETA: Oh wait, I guess there was an aggregate for 3 years 11/55-7/58 but they don't feel like counting that on record books because reasons?
This admittedly biased breakdown of things indicates that before last decade, Billboard did count pre-Hot 100 for "most #1s," hmm: www.elvis.com.au/presley/billboard-change-rules-and-cheats-elvis-of-ten-10-number-one-hits.shtml

[torpedo007]

May 7, 2024 21:43:42 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It doesn't make any sense for Billboard to count the non-online charts pre-dating Billboard 200 for records, but then to conclude the non-online charts pre-dating Hot 100 do not count for records.

I'm sure they'll eventually just call a spade on that one day. Besides, the album sales chart in the 1950s is about as relevant as the pure sales in 2024 in the grand scheme. The biggest albums of the entire decade spent years in the top 10 yet barely sold 1 million. 

It also doesn't make any sense for Billboard to count longevity records in the streaming era with sales era  together.

The same dedicated stans streaming songs from the album on loop every week while GP can't name more than one song, it's not impressive at all.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

RO is technically up from FN but only by 2,000 album units and even then FN had half the sales in its first week. Honestly, I wouldn't even be shocked if RO drops out of the Top 10 next week.

[Gary]

Chart records can be anything you want them to be

Records can be from the beginning of the 'online charts", Soundscan or even the streaming era. Depends on how whomever is writing it chooses to state it.

The Billboard 200 has changed many times over its existence due to market and technology
-not allowing catalog albums
-inclusion of Soundscan
-varying rules on release and distribution
-to now streaming and track sales

The "online charts" start in 1963 but the 200 position chart didn't kick in until 1967

Now largely thanks to streaming, well over half the chart has charted longer than 2 years
Due to catalog rules half of those would have been booted 20 years ago

Things will happen now that could not have happened before due to streaming

Singles are the same way

Taylor Swift and Drake charting 300 times a piece and taking the entire top 10 or top 14 would have never happened without streaming

It is what it is

[iHype.]

May 8, 2024 6:05:16 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

RO is technically up from FN but only by 2,000 album units and even then FN had half the sales in its first week. Honestly, I wouldn't even be shocked if RO drops out of the Top 10 next week.

Ofcourse it will be out the top 10 next week. It only 29k~ projected for streaming units.

Rule of thumb for second week of basically an album is 50-60% drop in streaming units and 80-90% drop in pure sales.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

May 8, 2024 12:20:05 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Why do so many people here still use "CD" to refer to albums? Are CD's for major releases even produced anymore beyond the occasional collectors item?

Most albums are still made available on CD.

[avamaxstan]

Dua's pure sales are actually decent. With a hit single she probably could've done 100k.

[WolfSpear]

May 7, 2024 23:07:50 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I thought they don't count pre-Hot 100 records because there were 3 different charts each counting a totally different thing; sales, radio, and jukeboxes.
Like if Sales, Radio, and Streaming these days were charts without any attempt to aggregate them together.

ETA: Oh wait, I guess there was an aggregate for 3 years 11/55-7/58 but they don't feel like counting that on record books because reasons?
This admittedly biased breakdown of things indicates that before last decade, Billboard did count pre-Hot 100 for "most #1s," hmm: www.elvis.com.au/presley/billboard-change-rules-and-cheats-elvis-of-ten-10-number-one-hits.shtml

Yes, at one point they did count the stats from 1955-1958. If you read through any article prior to… the late 2000’s, you’ll see Paul Grein and Fred Bronson incorporate those numbers. Indeed, the longevity record at #1 was held by Elvis (Hound Dog/Don’t Be Cruel for 11 week) until Boyz II Men came along and the rest is history. The problem is and always will be if whether or not those 3 charts are equivalents, which is likely why they chose to keep it at the Hot 100 rather than raise questions.

But given that the Hot 100 itself has changed multiple times, kind of silly draw comparisons from 2024 to even 1984, but at least there’s some common ground I suppose. Would make sense to draw a line around 2013 till now, with streaming coming to the full front around 2017/2018.

[imbuemyblue]

Yeah, I get that historically Dua's taken her sweet time to hit the top ten and her singles have had longevity, etc. but I think three singles deep it's pretty clear that is not happening for this album. And now that the album is out and to my ears that isn't anything as obvious as her previous top tens, it's going to take a miracle for this album to have the longevity of her previous work.