Post by adam on May 8, 2024 14:54:12 GMT -5
I originally wrote this analysis for Reddit’s r/popheads, but I thought it would be of interest here too.
It’s common to hear that X year was a particularly good or bad year for pop music, but what if these statements were tested empirically?
The analysis
For this analysis, I’ve looked up the Rate Your Music scores for songs that made the Billboard Hot 100 year-end list for every year since 2000 (while 2000’s technically part of the 20th century, I follow common usage in considering it part of the 21st century) & calculated the average (out of a possible 5). If a song appeared on more than one year-end list, only the earlier one was used; unfortunately, this means that Smooth & Amazed, which topped the Hot 100 in 2000, are excluded from the analysis altogether as both were on the 1999 list. Christmas songs are of course also excluded from consideration. Finally, I also list the best & worst song from each year.
2000 (96 songs): 2.91
Best song: Better Off Alone (3.88)
Worst song: Girl on TV (1.91)
2001 (92 songs): 2.95
Best song: Ms. Jackson (4.16)
Worst song: Oochie Wally (1.73)
2002 (94 songs): 3.04
Best song: Can’t Get You Out of My Head (4.03)
Worst song: Good Morning Beautiful (1.75)
2003 (97 songs): 2.89
Best song: Clocks (3.8)
Worst song: Have You Forgotten? (0.92)
2004 (91 songs): 2.98
Best song: Through the Wire (4.24)
Worst song: Fuck It (I Don’t Want You Back) (1.41)
2005 (94 songs): 2.84
Best song: Feel Good Inc. (4.17)
Worst song: My Humps (1.63)
2006 (89 songs): 2.8
Best song: Stay Fly (3.99)
Worst song: Lips of an Angel (1.36)
2007 (91 songs): 2.86
Best song: Say It Right (4.01)
Worst song: Rockstar (1.57)
2008 (90 songs): 2.8
Best song: Paper Planes (4.26)
Worst song: All Summer Long (1.26)
2009 (88 songs): 2.71
Best song: Untouched (3.88)
Worst song: I Love College (1.41)
2010 (86 songs): 2.6
Best song: Bad Romance (3.69)
Worst song: Hey, Soul Sister (1.3)
2011 (90 songs): 2.62
Best song: All of the Lights (4.03)
Worst song: Tonight (I’m Fuckin’ You) (1.38)
2012 (92 songs): 2.57
Best song: Lights (3.91)
Worst song: Whistle (1.46)
2013 (89 songs): 2.59
Best song: Swimming Pools (Drank) (4.06)
Worst song: That’s My Kind of Night (1.47)
2014 (89 songs): 2.53
Best song: Ain't It Fun (3.77)
Worst song: Best Day of My Life (1.28)
2015 (92 songs): 2.56
Best song: Style (3.87)
Worst song: Marvin Gaye (0.91)
2016 (86 songs): 2.58
Best song: Into You (3.85)
Worst songs: 7 Years & Treat You Better (1.19)
2017 (91 songs): 2.61
Best song: DNA. (4.1)*
Worst song: Thunder (1.06)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
2018 (86 songs): 2.67
Best song: Ric Flair Drip (4.16)
Worst song: Freaky Friday (0.93)
2019 (89 songs): 2.6
Best song: A Lot (4.15)*
Worst song: Baby Shark (1.24)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
2020 (90 songs): 2.72
Best song: Blinding Lights (3.88)
Worst song: Dance Monkey (0.96)
2021 (91 songs): 2.75
Best song: Good Days (4.12)
Worst song: Fancy Like (0.99)
2022 (83 songs): 2.84
Best song: Running Up That Hill (4.42); otherwise Smokin Out the Window (4)
Worst song: ABCDEFU (1.16)
2023 (85 songs): 2.8
Best song: Going, Going, Gone (4.15)*
Worst song: Try That in a Small Town (0.8)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
The final ranking
1. 2002 (3.04)
2. 2004 (2.98)
3. 2001 (2.95)
4. 2000 (2.91)
5. 2003 (2.89)
6. 2007 (2.86)
7. 2022 (2.84)
8. 2005 (2.84)
9. 2008 (2.8)
10. 2023 (2.8)
11. 2006 (2.8)
12. 2021 (2.75)
13. 2020 (2.72)
14. 2009 (2.71)
15. 2018 (2.67)
16. 2011 (2.62)
17. 2017 (2.61)
18. 2019 (2.6)
19. 2010 (2.6)
20. 2013 (2.59)
21. 2016 (2.58)
22. 2012 (2.57)
23. 2015 (2.56)
24. 2014 (2.53)
What does it mean?
Three trends immediately stand out to me.
The first’s that the charts themselves have less turnover than they did at the start of the millennium (e.g. 2003 only saw three repeats). Presumably this is partially due to the relatively recent prevalence of long-lasting hits (10 of the 11 songs to spend at least 68 weeks on the Hot 100 are from 2008 or later) & partially due to the 2020s trend of Christmas & other older songs re-charting (e.g. Sure Thing, which is excluded from the 2023 number as it’s already included in 2011).
The second’s that the 2010s as a whole rank lower than the 2000s & the 2020s (so far). Were the 2010s actually that bad or is it a Nostalgia Filter effect that’s just now starting to dissipate? I don’t know & I’d like to hear your thoughts.
The third trend, correlated with the second, is that these numbers often contradict what we’d intuitively assume to be the case. For example, 2012’s often held up as an exemplary year for pop music in this sub [r/popheads] & other music forums, but it scores near the bottom here. I wonder which is closer to the general public’s view (to the extent that the general public ponders this question). Are we biased? Is RYM’s user base biased? Are both biased?
It’s common to hear that X year was a particularly good or bad year for pop music, but what if these statements were tested empirically?
The analysis
For this analysis, I’ve looked up the Rate Your Music scores for songs that made the Billboard Hot 100 year-end list for every year since 2000 (while 2000’s technically part of the 20th century, I follow common usage in considering it part of the 21st century) & calculated the average (out of a possible 5). If a song appeared on more than one year-end list, only the earlier one was used; unfortunately, this means that Smooth & Amazed, which topped the Hot 100 in 2000, are excluded from the analysis altogether as both were on the 1999 list. Christmas songs are of course also excluded from consideration. Finally, I also list the best & worst song from each year.
2000 (96 songs): 2.91
Best song: Better Off Alone (3.88)
Worst song: Girl on TV (1.91)
2001 (92 songs): 2.95
Best song: Ms. Jackson (4.16)
Worst song: Oochie Wally (1.73)
2002 (94 songs): 3.04
Best song: Can’t Get You Out of My Head (4.03)
Worst song: Good Morning Beautiful (1.75)
2003 (97 songs): 2.89
Best song: Clocks (3.8)
Worst song: Have You Forgotten? (0.92)
2004 (91 songs): 2.98
Best song: Through the Wire (4.24)
Worst song: Fuck It (I Don’t Want You Back) (1.41)
2005 (94 songs): 2.84
Best song: Feel Good Inc. (4.17)
Worst song: My Humps (1.63)
2006 (89 songs): 2.8
Best song: Stay Fly (3.99)
Worst song: Lips of an Angel (1.36)
2007 (91 songs): 2.86
Best song: Say It Right (4.01)
Worst song: Rockstar (1.57)
2008 (90 songs): 2.8
Best song: Paper Planes (4.26)
Worst song: All Summer Long (1.26)
2009 (88 songs): 2.71
Best song: Untouched (3.88)
Worst song: I Love College (1.41)
2010 (86 songs): 2.6
Best song: Bad Romance (3.69)
Worst song: Hey, Soul Sister (1.3)
2011 (90 songs): 2.62
Best song: All of the Lights (4.03)
Worst song: Tonight (I’m Fuckin’ You) (1.38)
2012 (92 songs): 2.57
Best song: Lights (3.91)
Worst song: Whistle (1.46)
2013 (89 songs): 2.59
Best song: Swimming Pools (Drank) (4.06)
Worst song: That’s My Kind of Night (1.47)
2014 (89 songs): 2.53
Best song: Ain't It Fun (3.77)
Worst song: Best Day of My Life (1.28)
2015 (92 songs): 2.56
Best song: Style (3.87)
Worst song: Marvin Gaye (0.91)
2016 (86 songs): 2.58
Best song: Into You (3.85)
Worst songs: 7 Years & Treat You Better (1.19)
2017 (91 songs): 2.61
Best song: DNA. (4.1)*
Worst song: Thunder (1.06)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
2018 (86 songs): 2.67
Best song: Ric Flair Drip (4.16)
Worst song: Freaky Friday (0.93)
2019 (89 songs): 2.6
Best song: A Lot (4.15)*
Worst song: Baby Shark (1.24)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
2020 (90 songs): 2.72
Best song: Blinding Lights (3.88)
Worst song: Dance Monkey (0.96)
2021 (91 songs): 2.75
Best song: Good Days (4.12)
Worst song: Fancy Like (0.99)
2022 (83 songs): 2.84
Best song: Running Up That Hill (4.42); otherwise Smokin Out the Window (4)
Worst song: ABCDEFU (1.16)
2023 (85 songs): 2.8
Best song: Going, Going, Gone (4.15)*
Worst song: Try That in a Small Town (0.8)
*Extrapolated from the music video as no rating’s available for the single
The final ranking
1. 2002 (3.04)
2. 2004 (2.98)
3. 2001 (2.95)
4. 2000 (2.91)
5. 2003 (2.89)
6. 2007 (2.86)
7. 2022 (2.84)
8. 2005 (2.84)
9. 2008 (2.8)
10. 2023 (2.8)
11. 2006 (2.8)
12. 2021 (2.75)
13. 2020 (2.72)
14. 2009 (2.71)
15. 2018 (2.67)
16. 2011 (2.62)
17. 2017 (2.61)
18. 2019 (2.6)
19. 2010 (2.6)
20. 2013 (2.59)
21. 2016 (2.58)
22. 2012 (2.57)
23. 2015 (2.56)
24. 2014 (2.53)
What does it mean?
Three trends immediately stand out to me.
The first’s that the charts themselves have less turnover than they did at the start of the millennium (e.g. 2003 only saw three repeats). Presumably this is partially due to the relatively recent prevalence of long-lasting hits (10 of the 11 songs to spend at least 68 weeks on the Hot 100 are from 2008 or later) & partially due to the 2020s trend of Christmas & other older songs re-charting (e.g. Sure Thing, which is excluded from the 2023 number as it’s already included in 2011).
The second’s that the 2010s as a whole rank lower than the 2000s & the 2020s (so far). Were the 2010s actually that bad or is it a Nostalgia Filter effect that’s just now starting to dissipate? I don’t know & I’d like to hear your thoughts.
The third trend, correlated with the second, is that these numbers often contradict what we’d intuitively assume to be the case. For example, 2012’s often held up as an exemplary year for pop music in this sub [r/popheads] & other music forums, but it scores near the bottom here. I wonder which is closer to the general public’s view (to the extent that the general public ponders this question). Are we biased? Is RYM’s user base biased? Are both biased?