2025 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 13)

[Groovy]

2024 year down, time for 2025. Pending somebody doing the 2024 prediction. 

Past Projections
2013 Year End Projection
2014 Year End Projection
2015 Year End Projection
2016 Year End Projection
2017 Year End Projection
2018 Year End Projection
2019 Year End Projection
2020 Year End Projection
2021 Year End Projection
2022 Year End Projection
2023 Year End Projection

Credits


2013 Daniel Collins
2014 Daniel Collins
2015 broccoli
2016 georgetherunner314
2017 snoopdawg
2018 fhas
2019 rimetm
2020 Naomi
2021 PositivityMaster48
2022 PositivityMaster48
2023 Abbaschand

[joshtheking]

Early predictions I guess:

- A Bar Song (Tipsy)
- Birds Of A Feather
- I Had Some Help
- Espresso
- Die With A Smile
- Good Luck, Babe!
- Taste
- Lose Control
- Please Please Please
- Beautiful Things
- Not Like Us
- Timeless
- Too Sweet
- Hot To Go!
- I Am Not Okay
- Bed Chem
- Wildflower
- I Love You, I'm Sorry
- Sailor Song
- Pink Pony Club
- Juno
- Diet Pepsi
- Lonely Road
- Love Somebody
- APT

[puwrpler04]

2025 Billboard Year End Predictions!

Welcome to 2025 billboard year end predictions list can’t wait for another year of predictions!

I will divide each into categories

Locks 90-100%

A Bar Song Tipsy 100%- Has way too much radio and streaming to miss the year end list and will easily be our first repeat
Die With A Smile 100%-Honestly suprised this song isn’t doing better on radio already but I think it’s only a matter of time
Taste 100%- Currently On A radio run once the radio drops one of Please 3x or Espresso it’ll start to jump even higher
Love Somebody 100%- 1. It’s Morgan Wallen only one of his singles has missed a Year End which was due to caught between years. 2. Already on Pace to Debut at #1 3. Promoted to both Pop and Country radio assures massive radio 4. A Wallen Album coming soon all but assures a spot
I Had Some Help 95%- Morgan Wallen streaming combined with Post Malone longevity will lead this to a repeat and an appearance on the 2025 year end list
Espresso 90%- This will be the single from Short N Sweet that I think will have the most longevity and only needs around 8/9 Weeks to lock
Birds Of A Feather 90%-Barring a Major Radio collapse the streaming is so good it’ll make it

Very Likely 70-90%
Bed Chem 85%-This will move up to a lock once it obviously gets announced as a 4th single and I believe it’ll be massive in 2024
Timeless 80%- The Weeknd dropping an album obviously helps it’ll start to stabilize once radio gets on board
I Love You I’m Sorry 80%- Has all the momentum in the world once radio fully gets on board which with all Of Gracie Abram’s connections she should it’ll have no issue clinching
Good Luck Babe 75%-Streaming and Radio are kinda dipping pretty hard recently but I think it’ll still have enough to find a bottom 50 spot
Please Please Please 75%-This is the single From Short N Sweet I’m least confident will repeat but I thik the streaming is still too good for this to miss
Not Like Us 70%-This prolly was going to miss but Kendrick’s Super Bowl Preformance will likely give this enough of a momentum boost to make it
Wildflower 70% Still don’t know if this was announced as a single yet but it just started to get radio and streaming is up I think this’ll also be big but has a chance to fall back

Good Chance 55-70%
Too Sweet 60% The radio hasn’t let this go and it has good streaming. I think this’ll be close but just nab a spot
I Am Not Okay 60% Getting an album boost the first week will really help and jelly roll has had solid longevity with his singles
Beautiful Things 55% 14 Weeks before double reccurency and the Radio boost for a week should help but it’s very borderline and honestly I hope it misses cause of how many repeats there likely going to be on the 2025 year end list
Lies Lies Lies 55% This is also very borderline but Wallen album if it comes at the right time can help this for a few weeks and it does have good streaming. Also very borderline
Hot To Go! 55%- On a radio run but will probably peak soon and streaming is down. Will be very close
Diet Pepsi 55% I’m trusting the momentum with this one is real and that streaming keeps up to make it

The 50/50 Tier 50%
Lose Control 50% This is always at risk and normally when your at 61 weeks it’s not very likely you’ll make it but this song just won’t die so I can’t say it just will miss completely
Sailor Song 50% Yes it has vitality but it all depends on if this gets radio which is up in the air as of right now
Juno/Good Graces 50%- Sabrina definitely has the popularity right now to push 5th single and whichever one does I think is likely to make 2025. I personally think Juno has the potential to be bigger then Good Graces but both are popular and honestly if she pushes both to radio they both prolly make it and she has 6 songs on the Year End
The Door 50%- Let’s see if the radio supports this like Lose control. I think out of all the songs that are going to get caught between year s this has the most potential to break out of being so
You Look Like You Love Me 50% This also has a decent shot to break out of being caught between years with it just starting its radio run and having strong streaming for a country song not by Wallen,Bryan, or Combs


Not A Good Chance but possible 35-50%
Guy For That 45% Will get that radio run but will it be enough without a streaming revival idk
Million Dollar Baby 45% This is a Guts prediction but I think streaming and radio will fall off hard in 2025 as it’s already starting to do right now and will just miss out on a repeat
Miles On It-40% Streaming is pretty good but I think radio drops this soon and once country radio drops it’s hard for country to Stick Around
Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma 40%^ (although this one has Luke combs so it might have better streaming
Cowgirls 40% ^ (and this one is being pushed on pop radio so who knows)
Austin 40% ^
Pink Skies 40% Completely different issue here as this one only has streaming which yes is more stable but can it hold for another 16-20 weeks I have my doubts
Lonley Road 40% I’ve seen people be bullish on this songs chances but i just can’t see country radio giving that much radio To MGK despite the Jelly Roll co-sign

Caught Between Years Tier (no percents for these)
Who
Kehlani
TGIF
Pink Pony Club (This Could Get radio)
Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido
28
Mamushi
360
Whiskey Whiskey

All of These Have had year end runs but will they chart for another 16-20 weeks to make 2025. Anwser is most likely no

Songs that made 2024 with no chance to repeat (no percent)
Stargazing
Pour Me A Drink
I Can Do It With A Broken Heart
Saturn
Like That
High Road
Wind Up Missing You
Houdini


Truck Bed Tier 1%
Think I’m In Love With You 1% easily going to miss but i said the same about truck bed last year and this lasted 40 weeks and made it and this song has similar characteristics


Here our the songs I think have potential but can’t get a good gage on
Am I Okay
I’m Gonna Love You
I Never Lie

[neel]

Crazy that we’re already in the second half of the 2020s (at least based on the shitty Billboard calendar tracking).

The first five years of the 2020s on the Hot 100 were dominated by a resurgence of pop music, particularly with disco and synth-pop elements. We saw the rise of new pop divas like Olivia Rodrigo, Sabrina Carpenter, Dua Lipa, and Doja Cat to name a few. Meanwhile, Taylor Swift became the absolute biggest thing in the world during the latter half of this period. Country music quietly began its ascent over the past four years. However, hip-hop, despite a strong showing in 2020, saw a decline in consumption, with its 50th anniversary in 2023 marking its worst year in terms of consumption since the early 2010s.

My predictions for the second half of the 2020s on the Billboard Hot 100? Country music will officially be considered as the mainstream and will surpass both pop and hip-hop as the most popular genre in the U.S. I think we’re going to see more massive country crossovers on the Hot 100, and are due for a year when a majority of the Top 40 will be country songs. Because of this, I expect to see a slowdown in pop music, with more pop stars dabbling in country, like we saw earlier this year. Unfortunately, hip-hop’s decline will likely continue and I think it’ll seriously suffer. This shift will soon be reflected strongly on the Hot 100. While we might see more experimental sub-genres like rage-rap, plugg, and jazz-rap gaining traction, I doubt they’ll be enough to keep hip-hop’s consumption strong overall.

I also think we’ll see the rise of our first Gen Alpha star, or perhaps a wave of them, but that might be towards the last three years of the decade.

Y’all got any predictions for this part of the decade?

[jdanton2]

Bruno Mars will most likely have more songs on the 2025 chart than 2024 . Die With A Smile could end higher and APT. will likely make it based on some early numbers.

[southerninternal999]

Alright, the time has come. Might as well make some way too early predictions for the year end. Starting by covering the songs on the 2024 year end still charting.

Lose Control: Maybe (Really just depends on how many weeks it gets post Xmas. Would likely be in the 50s-60s if achieved.)
A Bar Song: Definitely (I mean, it's obviously not dropping out anytime soon. Will likely be one of the first to clinch and be somewhere in the top 25.)
Beautiful Things: Maybe (Streaming's doing alright and radio is somehow still good. Will also depend on weeks post Xmas and might be a 50s-60s range entry)
I Has Some Help: Likely (Streaming's still strong and it's a Morgan Wallen song. It's either gonna go in the lower top half or the higher bottom half)
Not Like Us: Likely (Super Bowl helps out its chances, but the question is how long can it hold on until then? I'm gonna guess the 40s-50s range)
Espresso: Very Likely (Radio and streaming are still strong enough for this to safely clinch. Might go in the 20s-30s range)
Million Dollar Baby: Unlikely (Radio and streaming are dropping so I don't think this song has much of a chance. If it stays afloat, it'll be somewhere in the 90s)
Too Sweet: Maybe (This one really comes down to how long radio will keep it around, and I don't see them dropping it anytime soon. Possibly going in the 70s-80s range)
Like That: No Chance (I forgot it was still on the charts tbh. But yeah, this'll be gone by Xmas)
Birds Of A Feather: Definitely (Radio's huge, streaming's huge, this song is a safe bet to make it on. I'm thinking top 20 at least, possibly even top 10 if it sticks around long enough)
Please Please Please: Maybe (Out of all the singles from her, this is the iffiest to guess. Will likely come down to how long radio keeps it around. I could see it going 70s-80s range if it holds on)
Good Luck Babe: Very likely (Barring a streaming collapse, I see this song safely making it. Possibly ending up in the 40s-50s range)
Saturn: Very Unlikely (The only chance this has of making it is the new album. But I dunno when that's gonna be releasing. Might be in the 80s range at most depending on the album)
Austin: Unlikely (Radio's dropping soon, so it's banking on streaming at this rate. But it'll possibly be gone once Xmas time comes around. Could see this in the 80s-90s range if it lasts)
Pink Skies: Unlikely (Streaming's good, but can it survive the Xmas bomb? If so, I can see this in the 70s-80s range)
Cowgirls: Maybe (Well it's Morgan Wallen song. However, streaming and radio appear to be dipping a bit, so you never know. Could Possibly be somewhere in the bottom fourth of the year end)
Miles On It: No Chance (Yeah no, this one's toast. radio and streaming are dying fast and this'll likely be gone by Xmas)
ICDIWABH: Very Unlikely (On the one hand, It's Taylor. On the other hand, streaming's basically dead. This really just comes down to radio and I don't see it lasting long. I'm thinking 90s at best)
Ain't No Love In Oklahoma: Unlikely (Will likely just come down to streaming in this case. I'm guessing 80s-90s range if it holds on)
Houdini: No Chance (I don't need to explain this one)
Lies Lies Lies: Maybe (With Love Somebody getting the attention now, this just needs to stick around long enough for the new album to give it some edge. Possibly going in the 60s-70s range)
HOT TO GO: Likely (With streaming slowing down a bit, this'll likely come down to radio. But I think it should do fine enough to go somewhere in the 70s-80s range)
Xmas Music: Definitely (Look, I don't like it, but we have to get use to Xmas music on the year end unless Billboard changes it's rules. It'll be the same batch as this year with the possible exception of Holly Jolly Xmas)
Die With A Smile: Definitely (I don't think I need to explain this one. I'm calling it for top 10. Top 20 at worst)
Stargazing: Maybe (Alright, hear me out on this one. Streaming's obviously dead, but the radio is doing really well. Depending on how it plays out, this song could land in the 70s-80s range)
I Am Not Okay: Very Likely (It's Jelly Roll. Have you seen the longevity this man has? I think this'll end up in the 30s-40s range)
Pour Me A Drink: No Chance (No explanation needed)
High Road: No Chance (^)
Taste: Definitely (It'll be on top of the radio in a month or two. Likely guaranteed for a top 10 spot on the year end. Top 20 at worst)
Wildflower: Very likely (Definitely gonna be the next single. Just needs radio to hop on to solidify it. I can see this in the 20s range)
Wind Up Missing You: No Chance (No explanation needed)

Well if you made it this far, thank you. But I'm not done yet, I still need to cover the non-repeats that have a good chance:

Love Somebody (This is the easiest one to predict. Streaming's strong, radio's gonna be huge, this could potentially be bigger than Last Night! This is likely going in the top 10 for sure. At worst, top 20)
APT (I was unsure on this one at first, but after an improved streaming update, I think this has a decent enough chance. But it's gonna need a radio push to seal the deal. If done right, this is going to be a top half entry. Specifically, the 30s or 40s)
Timeless (You got a new Weeknd album, a dedicated Carti fanbase, and strong streaming. All that's missing is the massive radio success...which is likely on the way. This will likely be in the 20s-50s range because I don't even know how far this song could go.)
I Love You I'm Sorry (It's about damn time that Gracie Abrams got a hit! This really just needs a radio push to guarantee a spot...that or a theoretical remix [Olivia Rodrigo anyone?]. This can likely go as high as the top 20)
Bed Chem (It's gonna be the next Sabrina single, what else is there to say? I could see this in the 10s-20s range)
Juno (Might be single number 5 from what I'm seeing here, but I dunno. Likely somewhere in the top 40 if it gets pushed)
The Door (Radio and streaming just need to pick up on this one and I think we're set. I'm thinking of a 40s-50s range for this one at most)
Diet Pepsi (This really just depends on momentum, and I'm confident in it right now. Will possibly be in the 80s-90s range)
Sailor Song (It's either going the way of End Of Beginning or My Love Mine All Mine. There's no in between. I'm thinking of a 50s range for this one at most)
Pink Pony Club (Only if it gets a radio push. Likely 90s range)
Lonely Road (PLEASE NO! Will be 90s range if it makes it on)
Getaway Car (Depends on if it's the one they push from Reputation TV. Could potentially be a top 10)
Thick Of It (Nah, there's no way that'll become a smash hit...right? Well if it does, 80s-90s range)
Disease (It's new Lady Gaga. It should be huge. I'm thinking Top 30 at most)

And now for 10 artists I think will have new songs that make the year end:

Taylor Swift (Reputation TV should have some new material)
SZA (New album on the way)
The Weeknd (Will likely have one other big song off the new album)
Morgan Wallen (Obviously a lot more songs will get pushed from the new album)
Harry Styles (It'll be three years since Harry's House. I think something might be coming)
Chappell Roan (We could get new stuff from her that becomes huge)
Lil Nas X (New album otw, should have some stuff that could go viral)
Travis Scott (New album is likely otw, we could at least get a single for it)
Luke Combs (He always has something new up his sleeve)
Jack Harlow (No matter how hard we try, we are not getting rid of this man)

And that about everything. God this took way too long. Can't wait to see how wrong I am in a couple of months :)

[feldspar905]

Kanye has already announced that he is working on a solo album.Obviously Ye is known to delay and rework his albums so i don't think it will materialize in a while .Despite the circumstances around it ,CARNIVAL is the first time he made the YE (pun intended) list since 2015's FourFiveSeconds .I wonder if anything from that could become a hit,that is if the album doesn't get fully scrapped like Yandhi infamously did before getting turned into JIK.

I honestly wanna see Thick Of It become a hit lol ,mostly because it would be funny and to see if "ironic" hate-marketing can actually take a song that far.And also because it would be a currently active youtuber getting a hit,i guess Justin Bieber kinda counts in this category as he was still making videos when Baby got big ,but that was 15 years ago.

Apple by Charli XCX is also climbing the charts and i think it has a chance at becoming a hit,maybe not top 10 big but atleast top 20.Despite my feelings on the Kamala cosign i think it unironically gave Charli a pretty decent boost,even though brat was doing quite well by itself before that.

I honestly doubt Reputation(Taylor's Version) is gonna have any hits ,but it is true that Getaway Car is a fan favorite deep cut just like Cruel Summer was for Lover,so maybe the same thing could happen to it.I am profoundly interested in what Ready For It? TV is gonna sound like lol.

[southerninternal999]

Oct 20, 2024 22:48:39 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

Kanye has already announced that he is working on a solo album.Obviously Ye is known to delay and rework his albums so i don't think it will materialize in a while .Despite the circumstances around it ,CARNIVAL is the first time he made the YE (pun intended) list since 2015's FourFiveSeconds .I wonder if anything from that could become a hit,that is if the album doesn't get fully scrapped like Yandhi infamously did before getting turned into JIK.

I honestly wanna see Thick Of It become a hit lol ,mostly because it would be funny and to see if "ironic" hate-marketing can actually take a song that far.And also because it would be a currently active youtuber getting a hit,i guess Justin Bieber kinda counts in this category as he was still making videos when Baby got big ,but that was 15 years ago.

Apple by Charli XCX is also climbing the charts and i think it has a chance at becoming a hit,maybe not top 10 big but atleast top 20.Despite my feelings on the Kamala cosign i think it unironically gave Charli a pretty decent boost,even though brat was doing quite well by itself before that.

I honestly doubt Reputation(Taylor's Version) is gonna have any hits ,but it is true that Getaway Car is a fan favorite deep cut just like Cruel Summer was for Lover,so maybe the same thing could happen to it.I am profoundly interested in what Ready For It? TV is gonna sound like lol.

Thick of It could do the funniest thing ever. It just needs to get a radio push to help it out.

And Getaway Car might be one of my picks for the big song off Reputation TV. But we'll just have to wait until it comes out to see.

[rowletpulse]

Okay, so here is my 2025 Year End Predictions. This year has a chance to be just as, if not, more eventful and fun as 2024.

A Bar Song - Duh.
Love Somebody - It's Morgan Wallen. Judging from first day numbers, this will be huge.
Die With A Smile - Momentum for this one isn't gonna die anytime soon.
Espresso - ^
Taste - ^^
Birds of a Feather - This is still massive. Could see it in the Top 10
I Had Some Help - Could end up in the 30s to 40s
Bed Chem - will be the 4th single off Sabrina's album. Could be huge
Timeless - The Weekend's album already helps its chances of making it, but this still has strong streams and I can smell the radio coming anytime soon.
APT. - Can manage to be huge if done properly
Wildflower - The next single off Billie's Album.
I Love You I'm Sorry - Could be either huge or be the next MLMAM. We'll just have to wait and see.
4 to 5 XMas Songs - This will of course happen again unless Billboard changes its rules.
Beautiful Things - Please God, do NOT let this piece of 💩 song be on two year end lists. If it does, it'll be 80s or 90s range.
Good Luck, Babe - Please God, DO let this angelic song be on two year end lists. Seems like it'll have enough streams and radio to clinch.
Not Like Us - Super Bowl will help it's chances.

Now for some artists I think will release something new in 2025
Morgan Wallen (New Album)
Kendrick Lamar (Broccoli Teased)
The Weeknd (New Album. Sao Paulo could be big)
Lil Nas X (Light Again teased for streaming release. Possible New Album)
Travis Scott (Possible New Album)
Playboi Carti (New Album)
Kanye West (New Album)
Drake (New Album, maybe he'll get one or two hits this year despite his downfall)
Olivia Rodrigo (Possible New Album)
Justin Bieber (I have a feeling he will make a comeback this year)
Harry Styles (^)
One Direction (I have a feeling the band members will reunite and make a tribute single for Liam Payne and it'll go viral but we will see if that happens)
Luke Combs (He seems to show up in every Year End list)
Jelly Roll (will push something off his new album)
SZA (new album)
Chappel Roan (New single and Possible new album)
Rihanna (Possible comeback)
Megan Thee Stallion (Possible viral song)
Taylor Swift (Reputation TV will happen)

[inverse]

Happy 2025 everybody! Boy oh boy I can't believe we're halfway through the decade already sure does feel great to have that refreshing new year feeling doesn't it

[feldspar905]

At this point i think  Big Dawgs is   getting caught between years,i really thought that was gonna be one of the biggest rap songs of 2024 in the US.And it might still technically be in streaming even if chart success doesn't reflect that.

[southerninternal999]

Oct 25, 2024 2:18:06 GMT -5 feldspar905 said:

At this point i think  Big Dawgs is   getting caught between years,i really thought that was gonna be one of the biggest rap songs of 2024 in the US.And it might still technically be in streaming even if chart success doesn't reflect that.

I think that was gonna happen anyway. It's peak was during the Olympics and it's been slowly falling ever since.

Which sucks because it was easily one of my favorite songs this year and I wanted it to succeed. But oh well, what are ya gonna do?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Too early to tell and I hope I may not jinx this, but 2025 may have a chance of someone joining an elite club of artists that managed to get multiple Year-End #1's which consisted of:

Percy Faith ("Song From Moulin Rouge" - 1953 and Theme From "A Summer Place" - 1960)
Elvis Presley (Back-to-back in 1956 and 1957 with "Heartbreak Hotel" and "All Shook Up" respectively)
The Beatles ("I Want to Hold Your Hand" - 1964 and "Hey Jude" - 1968, the only artist to do so with the proper credit since the existence of Billboard Hot 100 charts in 1957)
George Michael ("Careless Whisper" as part of Wham! - 1985 and "Faith" - 1988)
Elton John ("That's What Friends Are For" as part of Dionne & Friends - 1986 and "Candle in the Wind 1997 / Something About the Way You Look Tonight" - 1997)

Morgan Wallen may become the 6th artist to do so with "Love Somebody" after "Last Night" last year, whereas Bruno Mars who topped the 2015 Year-End with "Uptown Funk!" alongside Mark Ronson has two chances, with either "Die With a Smile" (with Lady Gaga) or "APT." (with ROSÉ)

[iHype.]

The fact Billboard Music Awards haven't been announced yet this year makes me think the tracking period might be changed again.

[southerninternal999]

Oct 31, 2024 16:53:36 GMT -5 iHype. said:

The fact Billboard Music Awards haven't been announced yet this year makes me think the tracking period might be changed again.

There's always the possibility that Billboard just isn't doing an awards thing this year, similar to what the American Music Awards did the last two years.

[rowletpulse]

Nov 3, 2024 13:13:33 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Oct 31, 2024 16:53:36 GMT -5 iHype. said:

The fact Billboard Music Awards haven't been announced yet this year makes me think the tracking period might be changed again.

There's always the possibility that Billboard just isn't doing an awards thing this year, similar to what the American Music Awards did the last two years.

They are doing one this year I think. They announced an exclusive Shaboozey performance for the awards on their Instagram account, but news about when the award show would happen is not there.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 3, 2024 16:20:47 GMT -5 rowletpulse said:

Nov 3, 2024 13:13:33 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

There's always the possibility that Billboard just isn't doing an awards thing this year, similar to what the American Music Awards did the last two years.

They are doing one this year I think. They announced an exclusive Shaboozey performance for the awards on their Instagram account, but news about when the award show would happen is not there.

I did some research. One source is saying November 17th, which is possible but it feels weird that they haven't officially announced it yet.

[nathanalbright]

I wonder what their social media intern is doing that is so urgent that nominations and promotion for the BBMA can't be announced somewhere?

[iHype.]

Nov 3, 2024 13:13:33 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Oct 31, 2024 16:53:36 GMT -5 iHype. said:

The fact Billboard Music Awards haven't been announced yet this year makes me think the tracking period might be changed again.

There's always the possibility that Billboard just isn't doing an awards thing this year, similar to what the American Music Awards did the last two years.

They did announce there would be pre-recorded performance tapings completed in October through early November, and one site was preparing to sell PR tickets for a date of November 19th.

However it’s pretty clear at this point that November 19th date isn’t happening. It could be postponed to a later date ala December-February or cancelled altogether.

In either scenario I would think there was a good chance the year-end period would be impacted though. Airing at a later date or no longer airing would be more incentive to move the YE to ending later in the year.

This October nonsense to begin with was only due to the BBMAs and having it align with them.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

There's this pressumably:

Billboard Music Awards 2024

[southerninternal999]

Nov 7, 2024 12:31:26 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

There's this pressumably:

Billboard Music Awards 2024

Yeah, that's what I saw too. Maybe they're gonna do a surprise show or something like that.

Either way, I don't think the year end's gonna get impacted, Billboard's not stupid enough to delay the year end list just because of their dumb award show...but then again, Billboard has done some stupid shit.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 7, 2024 12:27:07 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nov 3, 2024 13:13:33 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

There's always the possibility that Billboard just isn't doing an awards thing this year, similar to what the American Music Awards did the last two years.

They did announce there would be pre-recorded performance tapings completed in October through early November, and one site was preparing to sell PR tickets for a date of November 19th.

However it’s pretty clear at this point that November 19th date isn’t happening. It could be postponed to a later date ala December-February or cancelled altogether.

In either scenario I would think there was a good chance the year-end period would be impacted though. Airing at a later date or no longer airing would be more incentive to move the YE to ending later in the year.

This October nonsense to begin with was only due to the BBMAs and having it align with them.

Um, that date you mentioned was from last year's show :l

I'm still thinking that the event might be cancelled this year considering that I haven't seen anything online about it

[onerandomguy]

They released the chart last year on 21 November. I’m guessing it’ll be 20 November this year.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 11, 2024 13:55:44 GMT -5 onerandomguy said:

They released the chart last year on 21 November. I’m guessing it’ll be 20 November this year.

We're hoping :l

[southerninternal999]

Just wanted to update/add a few songs in my predictions that could make the year end

Additions:

• That's So True: Very Likely (Unless this suddenly collapses, this'll make it no problem. Will likely make it in the top 25 at least)
• Sticky: Likely (I think Glo and Sexyy help give this song more staying power compared to other Tyler songs. I could see this in the 40s-50s range)
• Tu Boda: Likely (Will likely be the big regional mexican hit on the year end. I see a 50s-60s range)
• Squabble Up: Very Likely (It's Kendrick, and a big streaming hit. Will likely end up in the top 40)
• Luther: Very Likely (It's Kendrick and SZA, and will likely be the big radio hit. Will also likely end up in the top 40)

Updates:

• Lose Control: Maybe -> Likely (The staying power is crazy! Will make it for sure if it survives Xmas! Could be in 20-30s range at most)
• Please Please Please: Maybe -> Likely (Still doing pretty well, so we might see it again. I'm thinking a 40s range for this)
• Cowgirls: Maybe -> Unlikely (Might have overestimated this one. But it still might have a chance. Likely going in the 80s-90s range if it clinches)
• Lies Lies Lies: Maybe -> Likely (On the flip side of the coin, this is still doing well. Will likely be in the 30s range)
• Stargazing: Maybe -> Likely (It's gonna hit the top 5 on pop radio soon and it just hit the top 20 on Billboard. I think that warrants a chance boost. Likely in the 50s range at most)

And because I forgot to on the initial predictions. Here are the (now updated) chances for the non repeats I mentioned:

• Love Somebody: Very Likely (I might have overestimated this, but it's still doing great. Will definitely not be the next Last Night. But can still make the top 20)
• APT: Very Likely (Still holding steady on streaming and radio is improving. Will likely make the top 30)
• Timeless: Very Likely (Still holding steady, and the album will give this a boost. I'm thinking top 40 at least)
• I Love You, I'm Sorry: Maybe (With That's So True now the big hit, the chances for this one are much lower now. But it's still doing well enough to not totally collapse. If it makes it, it'll be in the 80s or 90s)
• Bed Chem: Definitely (It'll be the next song pushed and make the top 25. Let's move on)
• Juno: Maybe (Depends on if it's the next single after Bed Chem. Possibly in the top 40 at most)
• The Door: Likely (Radio's doing well and streaming is alright. I think it just needs to survive Xmas to guarantee it. Most likely in the 40s-50s range)
• Diet Pepsi: Very Unlikely (Going towards the same fate as BRAT at this rate. 90s range if it makes it)
• Sailor Song: Likely (Will need radio to boost chances. I'm thinking top 40 at most)
• Pink Pony Club: Maybe (If this gets a radio push, it might make it. Could be in the 60s-70s range)
• Lonely Road: Unlikely (Will need a radio push to make it. God forbid that happens. But if it does, then it'll be in the 80s range)
• Disease: Unlikely (Yep, I might have overhyped this one. The album could help, but IDK. Possible 80s-90s range if it makes it)
• Thick Of It: S K I P
• Getaway Car: TBD (Too early to tell, but if it's pushed from RepTV, then chances are good)

And that is all for now. I will see y'all next month with more prediction updates)

[CoJoFan]

If you read the Billboard year end wiki page it says they compile the charts now from the first week of December until the last week of November. If that’s the case the tracking period for 2024 still has 1 more week until year end is final



Edit: Third week of November is final tracking period it says actually so the November 16 chart would be the final chart of the 2024 tracking period now

[Groovy]

Nov 20, 2024 16:30:11 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

If you read the Billboard year end wiki page it says they compile the charts now from the first week of December until the last week of November. If that’s the case the tracking period for 2024 still has 1 more week until year end is final



Edit: Third week of November is final tracking period it says actually so the November 16 chart would be the final chart of the 2024 tracking period now

But last year they ended it early which is people are anticipating it being out tomorrow. 

[southerninternal999]

Nov 20, 2024 16:48:48 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Nov 20, 2024 16:30:11 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

If you read the Billboard year end wiki page it says they compile the charts now from the first week of December until the last week of November. If that’s the case the tracking period for 2024 still has 1 more week until year end is final



Edit: Third week of November is final tracking period it says actually so the November 16 chart would be the final chart of the 2024 tracking period now

But last year they ended it early which is people are anticipating it being out tomorrow. 

Honestly could go either way. On one hand, it would make sense for BB to stop tracking for the year after last year's debacle. On the other hand, they could be making up for it by having it last a few weeks longer.

Either way, we'll find out in the coming weeks.

[plankton5165]

Nov 20, 2024 16:30:11 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

If you read the Billboard year end wiki page it says they compile the charts now from the first week of December until the last week of November. If that’s the case the tracking period for 2024 still has 1 more week until year end is final



Edit: Third week of November is final tracking period it says actually so the November 16 chart would be the final chart of the 2024 tracking period now

Either of these may be outdated.

It could be, though. I have no idea what the cutoff is.

[plankton5165]

Nov 19, 2024 20:08:56 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

• Cowgirls: Maybe -> Unlikely (Might have overestimated this one. But it still might have a chance. Likely going in the 80s-90s range if it clinches)

I remember seeing Cowgirls get predicted to be in the 2023 year-end.

Had it made the 2023 year-end, it would be in a position that if it were to make the 2024 year-end (which it will, pretty much 100%) and the 2025 year-end, this would be a song that gets in the Billboard Year-End three times.

I think the only songs to do this were Christmas hits, and I remember the possibility of Circles being in the 2021 year-end as well as 2019 and 2020 being discussed.

I also remember there being a discussion (which I started!) about Blinding Lights being the 2022 year-end as well as 2020 and 2021, and Blinding Lights released just three months after Circles!