Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Oct 10, 2003 1:16:04 GMT -5
Well, the eligibility period is over. The nominees with be announced a month earlier than usual, the date will be December 4th. That means that the major nominees will have the incredible boost than only the Grammy's can provide, followed immediately by a Christmas sales increase.
Who do you guys think will win big this year? I think the Three most nominated artists will be 50 Cent and Christina, and Jason Mraz. Christima is simply going to dominate the pop categories, which should land her three nominations alone. I think the "Fighter" video will be recognized, and well as the song "Fighter" for Female Rock Performance.
"In da Club" should find itself in the "Record of the Year" category, and 50 should find himself in the "Best New Artist." His album could find its way into "Album of the Year", but that cateogry will be too crowded with good music for a token rap nomination this year. If any rap album makes it there this year, it will be the new Outkast album.
Watch out for Dave Mattews though. His last album was solo, that means he's eligible for "Best New Artist" this year. I can also picture NARAS giving him "Album of the Year" in a heartbeat.
Here is how I picture the big four this year
"Song of the Year"
"The Remedy"
"Unwell"
"Fighter"
"Where is the Love"
"When I'm Gone"
This category is really hard to predict. It's a really boring category that no one really cares about. I think all the songs I picked have a legitimate shot, with "Fighter" being interchangable with "Beautiful" (RCA is campaigning for "Fighter" though, the lyrics are better and so is Christina's vocal performance). I think Jason Mraz will win this one.
"Record of the Year"
"The Remedy"
"Where is the Love"
"Crazy in Love'
"In da Club"
"Unwell"
I was tempted to add "Lose Yourself" to the list, but that song has absolutely no steam, and died very quickly once it fell from it's peak. Beside, if they didn't give it to him for "Stan", they aren't gong to give it to him. I was temped to add Christina here too, but I don't think "Figther" was a big enough record, and "Beautiful" might be a little old. I'm picking Jason here too.
"Best New Artist"
Beyonce
Jason Mraz
Clay Aiken
50 Cent
Maroon 5
Not too long ago, I though Ms. Independent herself would be unbeatable here, but "Low" bombed, and the album as plummeted. Kelly Clarkson is over. Clay Aiken on the other hand is about to released what I think will be the biggest selling cd of the 4th quarter. It's going to be a critical smash as well. But Beyonce wins this easily. She's the best female vocalist that will be nominated.
"Album of the Year"
"Stripped" - Christina Aguilera
"Heavier Things" - John Mayer
"Elephant" - The White Stripes
"The Wind" - Warren Zevon
"American IV: The Man Comes Around" - Johnny Cash
Laugh at "Stripped" all you want. Christina put together a string of hit singles that showed more diversity and range than anyone else this year. The album will likely be in or close to the top 50 a full after it's release, and lets not forget, NARAS adores Christina. The American Music Awards always strays away from the big Grammy contenders, so when she was shout out there, I wasn't surprised. Don't look for the same thing at the Grammy's though. "Stripped" was the most orginal pop album of the year, and it's the best female album released this year. I'd be surprised if the album didn't get the nod. Every country voter is voting for Johnny Cash. They wanted to vote for John Mayer last year, but he wasn't eligible, so t hey will give it to him this year. Coldplay is t he critical act of the year, but there album was eligble last year. I think Warren Zevon has this one locked though. He has no real competition.
I'll do the pop, r&b, and rap categories later. What do you guys think NARAS is going to go for this year?
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Oct 10, 2003 1:18:11 GMT -5
Well, the eligibility period is over. Aww... so I guess "My Immortal" won't be getting any nominations. :( |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 10, 2003 1:28:57 GMT -5
I dont have time to make full predictions, but I agree about 50 Cent and Christina getting multiple nominations. Jason Mraz-I cant see him being the most nominated...or even tied for that. I just dont think he has mounted enough of a breakthrough, artistically or commercially, to get that. But who knows.
I wish maroon5 would get a few, but I can see them being completely shut out.
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j
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Post by j on Oct 10, 2003 11:14:50 GMT -5
I was tempted to add "Lose Yourself" to the list, but that song has absolutely no steam, and died very quickly once it fell from it's peak. Look at the amount of recurrent spins it continues to enjoy today, more so than a lot of other songs that came later than it, before you pass judgement that it died very quickly. |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Oct 10, 2003 12:10:38 GMT -5
I thought the exact opposite about Lose Yourself....I thought it had tons of steam, was massively sucessful, and did NOT drop fast.
I expect Eminem to get a few.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Oct 10, 2003 12:20:28 GMT -5
I thought the exact opposite about Lose Yourself....I thought it had tons of steam, was massively sucessful, and did NOT drop fast. Yeah, "Lose Yourself" was one of the top 20 songs of the year on Pop the last time I looked, and the song hit #1 in the middle of November '02. |
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Oct 10, 2003 12:39:30 GMT -5
"Lose Yourself" did drop kind of quickly, but it got lots of recurrent airplay. It has a good chance of finishing in the year-end Top 20, I should think.
However, chart performance is no criteria for Grammy nominations. If "Without Me" got nominated for Record of the Year, "Lose Yourself", which is a far superior song IMO, stands a good chance. I don't know about "In Da Club" getting nominated; but then again, OutKast got a ROTY nomination a couple years ago, so I guess we'll just have to see what happens.
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Oct 10, 2003 12:48:01 GMT -5
. I don't know about "In Da Club" getting nominated; but then again, OutKast got a ROTY nomination a couple years ago, so I guess we'll just have to see what happens. Yes, but "Ms. Jackson" is worlds better than "In da Club". The song also had a message that Grammy voters could buy into. Outkast should get an AOTY nomination again. "Lose Yourself" is probably favorite for ROTY. Unwell is SOTY, while new artist is probably going to Jason Mraz. |
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jlh527
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Post by jlh527 on Oct 10, 2003 12:54:15 GMT -5
I totally agree with Christina Aguileria and 50 Cent being the major nominees at this years Grammy Awards. I'm prediciting wins for Christina in the Record and Song of the Year catergories(Songwriter; Linda Perry) for "Beautiful". "Fighter" could definitely be a contender in the Rock Catergories. Beyond a shadow of a doubt Christina will be the most diverse artist at the Grammy's and she deserves credit for being GREAT at being diverse.
50 Cent will just dominate the Rap catergories, bringing home Rap Album, Rap Song, and some some the collaboration and Rap/Sung Grammy's.
The R&B field will be a GREAT one to watch this year with Monica, Beyonce and Ashanti vying for awards in this catergory. My choice for R&B Female Vocalist is Monica, for "So Gone". The R&B album catergory will be the most hotly contested.
Beyonce will walk home a winner, but in which catergory I don't know? Maybe in the collaboration catergories and possibly Best New Artist. She will grad a nod for "Record of the Year", "Crazy in Love."
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Oct 10, 2003 12:56:55 GMT -5
"Unwell" seems a good choice for SOTY rather than ROTY. I have a question though---when was the last time the Record and Song of the Year Grammy went to different songs? I far as I remember (ie, the last several years) both awards have been going to the same song. So it's been kind of easy to predict the winner from the nominations---ie, the songs that are nominated in both categories seem more likely to win!
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Oct 10, 2003 12:57:55 GMT -5
"Unwell" seems a good choice for SOTY rather than ROTY. I have a question though: when was the last time the Record and Song of the Year Grammy went to different songs? I far as I remember (ie, the last several years) both awards have been going to the same song. So it's been kind of easy to predict the winner from the nominations---ie, the songs that are nominated in both categories seem more likely to win! In 2002, Alicia Keys got Song of the Year for "Fallin'", while U2 got Record of the Year with "Walk On". |
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Oct 10, 2003 13:04:19 GMT -5
In 2002, Alicia Keys got Song of the Year for "Fallin'", while U2 got Record of the Year with "Walk On". Thanks, Bryan, I guess I missed that! ;) |
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ListenToMe
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Post by ListenToMe on Oct 10, 2003 13:07:03 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with jlh527.
I see Christina, Justin, Annie Lennox, Beyonce, 50 Cent, Linkin Park, Evanescence, Shania and possibly Eminem with numerous nominations. I also think Faith Hill will get a nod in a country category.
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Oct 10, 2003 13:07:10 GMT -5
I'm prediciting wins for Christina in the Record and Song of the Year catergories(Songwriter; Linda Perry) for "Beautiful". "Fighter" could definitely be a contender in the Rock Catergories. 50 Cent will just dominate the Rap catergories, bringing home Rap Album, Rap Song, and some some the collaboration and Rap/Sung Grammy's. "Beautiful" will probably get a record of the year nomination because of Christina's vocals, but this song is way too simple for Song of the Year. I could have written this song. "Fighter" is not a rock song. In that case, you may as well nominate "Trouble" or "Low". I wonder whether or not Liz Ohair "Why Can't I?" will be considered a rock or pop song. I say pop, but the way Grammy voters are, you never know? The R&B field will be a GREAT one to watch this year with Monica, Beyonce and Ashanti vying for awards in this catergory. My choice for R&B Female Vocalist is Monica, for "So Gone". The R&B album catergory will be the most hotly contested. I think all of those ladies will get nominations, but the R&B categories belong to Luther Vandross this year. This will be a big night for him. |
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jlh527
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Post by jlh527 on Oct 10, 2003 13:12:21 GMT -5
Yes, I agree. Luther will take home R&B album and R&B Male Vocal Performance. His only competition in those two catergories will be R.Kelly, if they recognize him. I say that because over the years the grammy's have snubbed R.Kelly, except in 1997 when "I Believe I Can Fly' won him three awards.
Also, Evanesance will be multiple nominees too. I like them for some reason!
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ListenToMe
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Post by ListenToMe on Oct 10, 2003 13:12:26 GMT -5
"Fighter" is not a rock song. In that case, you may as well nominate "Trouble" or "Low". Remember Avril Lavigne was nominated in the rock category for "Skater Boy". I think "Fighter" has a good shot in the rock category, but whether people agree with it being there is another issue. |
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Oct 10, 2003 13:15:42 GMT -5
Remember Avril Lavigne was nominated in the rock category for "Skater Boy". I think "Fighter" has a good shot in the rock category, but whether people agree with it being there is another issue. Good point. I don't think "Sk8tr Boi" is rock either. She is percieved more of a pop/r&b artist, while Avril is considered pop/rock, so that may play into whether or not she gets nominated. The Grammy's are so f'd up now (Steely Dan album of the Year in 2000,please!!!), that this could get nominated for jazz performance. I actualy put more credence in the AMA's. |
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Oct 10, 2003 13:16:41 GMT -5
Remember Avril Lavigne was nominated in the rock category for "Skater Boy". I think "Fighter" has a good shot in the rock category, but whether people agree with it being there is another issue. Two wrongs don't make a right. |
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ListenToMe
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Post by ListenToMe on Oct 10, 2003 13:22:31 GMT -5
Two wrongs don't make a right. True, but there will be some people out there who believe "Fighter" is entitled to be in the rock category. (I'm neutral on it, can see both sides). |
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Keith3000
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Post by Keith3000 on Oct 10, 2003 13:31:20 GMT -5
I guess if someone has to be nominated in the "female rock vocal" category, there are only so many aritsts at the moment. There's no real equivalent to Courtney Love or Alanis Morisette right now. I don't think Amy Lee can be nominated solely for her vocals on "Bring Me To Life".
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Oct 10, 2003 14:34:34 GMT -5
Did Sheryl Crow make the deadline?
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Oct 10, 2003 15:13:47 GMT -5
FYI - I read an article recently from the new president of the NARAS. He flat out said that they would not nominate anyone in the Best New Artist category if they had previously been in a group. He specifically mentioned Beyonce and Justin. This would also apply to Dave. I guess time will tell whether this is what actually happens. Sorry I don't have a link to the article.
I think Unwell will get nominated in the SOTY category but probably won't win. I don't know about ROTY. I think Hey Ya may win in the ROTY category. Critics are loving this album.
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M
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Post by M on Oct 10, 2003 15:28:43 GMT -5
What do you think about Jewel?
Think she might garner a nod for Female Pop Vocal Performance for "Intuition"?
It'll be interesting to see who's up for this award.
Here's some possibilities:
Christina Aguilera - Beautiful
Jewel - Intuition
Beyonce f/Jay-Z - Crazy In Love
Kelly Clarkson - Miss Independent
Michelle Branch - Are You Happy Now?
Others could include:
Liz Phair - Why Can't I?
Christina Aguilera - Fighter (could go either way)
Dido - White Flag (did she even make the cutoff)
Celine Dion - Have You Ever Been In Love
Madonna - Hollywood
Jennifer Lopez - I'm Glad
Pink f/William Orbit - Feel Good Time
The latter 4 I would say are definite longshots.
What do you think?
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Rural Juror
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Post by Rural Juror on Oct 10, 2003 15:41:51 GMT -5
I have a question. Wasn't 3 Doors Down's "When I'm Gone" nominated last year in one of the rock categories? If so, I don't think it's eligible this year.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Oct 10, 2003 16:11:06 GMT -5
I'm wondering if Shania Twain might get some nods. She's always done quite well at the Grammys, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Up! get an album of the year nomination, or possibly a song nod for "Forever And For Always" ("You've Got A Way" was nominated a few years back despite being a much smaller hit).
I can see Jason Mraz getting a few nominations, possibly Dido (I'm pretty sure Life For Rent made the cut), MB20 may get a few, as well as Christina Aguilera.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Oct 10, 2003 18:44:22 GMT -5
I have a question. Wasn't 3 Doors Down's "When I'm Gone" nominated last year in one of the rock categories? If so, I don't think it's eligible this year. Yes. It was nominated in a rock or alt category last year. I expect their new song to get nominated and probably win. I think the AMA's moved to November to spark some interest in the show, improve TV ratings, and probably help generate some holiday sales for nommies/winners. This was a smart move, IMO. |
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Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Oct 10, 2003 22:43:36 GMT -5
I didn't know "When I'm Gone" was nominated last year, so for "Song of the Year", I'll add "Lose Yourself"
For the R&B categories, Beyonce, Monica, and Ashanti can hang it up. I hope you guys haven't forgotten Lady Aretha released a new album. None of those girls have enough clout to even compete with Ms. Franklin.
Here is what I think will happen in the pop categories.
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance
"Beautiful"
"I'm With You"
"Miss Independent"
"Why Can't I"
"(There's Gotta Be)More to Life"
Christina should win easily
Best Male Pop Vocal Performance
"Rock Your Body"
"The Remedy"
The new Elton John record
"Bigger Than My Body"
The new Sting song
NARAS loves Sting, but it's going to be pretty hard to deny Jason Mraz.
Best Pop Vocal Album
"Stripped"
"Justified"
The Michelle Branch Album
"Waiting for My Rocket to Come"
"Seal IV"
I would have put John Mayor here, but I think his album will be in the Rock category. Most critics loved "Stripped" and "Justified", and their tour together was a critical success too. It will come down to who the voters like more. They've been kind to Christina, so I pick her here. I'm not sure if Jason Mraz was released with the eligibility period, but if he was, I think he'll be Christina's biggest challenge.
Best Pop Performance By a Dou or Group With Vocal
This one is hard, I can't even think of anyone. The only people I'm thinking of are people that might align themselves with pop to aviod Rock. I'll go with "Stacy's Mom"
Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals
This is between "Why Can't You and I" and "Can't Hold Us Down." I have a feeling "Why Can't You and I" might be a rock record. Christina has been nominated here 3 times in the last 2 years. It's hard not to pick her.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Oct 10, 2003 22:45:48 GMT -5
LOL, Christina is going to win everything, huh?
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j
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Post by j on Oct 10, 2003 22:57:05 GMT -5
I too, thought the Grammys lost some credibility by nominating "Sk8er Boi" for Female Rock Vocal. I hope they don't embarrass themselves further by nominating "Fighter" in the same category this year.
All this is moot if Sheryl Crow managed to squeak through the deadline for "First Cut Is The Deepest", which I'm sure she did. She'd definitely win hands down, just like she did last year for "Steve McQueen" and the year before that, and the year before that...
I think Sheryl's won the award 4 times out of the 8 or 9 times that it's been around. She even won for "Sweet Child O' Mine". Seriously it's no contest.
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Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Oct 10, 2003 22:57:32 GMT -5
LOL, Christina is going to win everything, huh? I think Christina is going to win three Grammy's in the pop category. I don't really think that's everything. It's not like I'm picking her for any of the big four awards. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that one of the biggest pop artists of the last year will dominate the pop categories. |
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