1st week sales predictions for Jen and MC anyone?

[ryarboro]

This is not to start a catfight, but I think this is the first time that both of these artists have a hot single out at the same time. I compare it to Beyonce and Ashanti's 1st week battle back in '03 when both albums came out right after each other. Ashanti won the first week battle, and obviously Beyonce won longterm.

Jen went over 350k during the holiday season in 2002 with a hit single...I think she will do 300k this go round and go on to sell just over 2 million again. I think "Get Right" will be a top 5 hit.

Mariah sold over 250k during the holiday season w/ no hit single last time. I think she will match that first week number w/ a hit single this time, BUT I also think the buzz on this album will move her closer to 2 mill when all is said and done. A big improvement over her last album. This single should be top 10 and get her career back on track.

Honestly, it seems both of these girls did themselves good this time.

[allow that]

I'll wait a little longer to see how radio responds to both singles before I make predictions. I'd love it if Mariah sold more than J. Lo though

[jond7699]

Jersey said:

I'll wait a little longer to see how radio responds to both singles before I make predictions. I'd love it if Mariah sold more than J. Lo though

That definitely would be awesome. But I don't see it happening. But I guess well just have to wait and see. *crosses his fingers*

[bluenote]

Jennifer will probably do around 300k, maybe higher. it depends on how fast "get right" peaks because that song is a basic attention grabbing type of 1st single, nothing that is going to have long jevity. Its going to rise fast, get far and drop like a hype 1st single should. It depends onhow fast they release the 2nd single, which hopefully will come out before the album dropsto gain even more hype for the album. If that happens then Jennifer will definately be the victor.

i cant comment on Mariah.

[freeek04]

Jersey said:

I'll wait a little longer to see how radio responds to both singles before I make predictions. I'd love it if Mariah sold more than J. Lo though

Same here. I don't think the radio will like Mariah's single simply because it's her. Glitter put a stigma on her that she can't seem to shake. As for Jello (don't call her J.Lo because she doesn't want to be called that anymore because J.Lo is not a real person - whatever that means), she's at the point now where everyone just wants her to go away, and that might be a good thing in the long-run. Note that Mariah's first week sales/chart position for Charmbracelet WERE higher than J.Lo's (MC #3, J.Lo #6), but J.Lo climbed a few weeks later after "All I Have" hit the radio, so...it's a bit of a toss-up as to whose album really will do better.

I put my money on Jello though (even though I really don't want to) just because the radio always likes to peeve me off by playing everything I hate, as of late.

[Me. I Am Justin...]

Jersey said:

I'll wait a little longer to see how radio responds to both singles before I make predictions. I'd love it if Mariah sold more than J. Lo though

Same here!

[WhySoSerious?]

Actually, This Is Me...Then debuted at #6 with 315K.  Charmbracelet debuted at #3 with 241K.

Some things to keep in mind: both of those were released during the holiday rush of 2002.  Mariah had no radio hit.

[Purple Dreams]

I don't see J.Lo selling more than she did with This Is Me Then since that was during the holidays rush and also had a hit single.

[jamatthews]

200K for J Lo and 1.5 million total.
300K for Mariah and 3 million total.

I can't believe people are refusing to guess now, it takes all the fun out of it if you wait.

[Night Senses]

TCorey said:

Actually, This Is Me...Then debuted at #9 with 315K.  Charmbracelet debuted at #3 with 241K.

Some things to keep in mind: both of those were released during the holiday rush of 2002.  Mariah had no radio hit.

I think it was #6 on Billboard, TCorey. Are you going by HITS Daily Double positions? I could've sworn Jennifer debuted at #6 with This Is Me...Then.

[WhySoSerious?]

LoveAngelMusicLady said:

I think it was #6 on Billboard, TCorey. Are you going by HITS Daily Double positions? I could've sworn Jennifer debuted at #6 with This Is Me...Then.

You're right, it was a typo. She rose to an eventual peak of #2 in January when "All I Have" peaked.

[myshelbronx]

Jennifer Lopez, Rebirth [ 275 000 ]
Mariah Carey, The Emmancipation Of Mimi [ 250 000 ]

[freeek04]

TCorey said:

Actually, This Is Me...Then debuted at #6 with 315K.  Charmbracelet debuted at #3 with 241K.

Some things to keep in mind: both of those were released during the holiday rush of 2002.  Mariah had no radio hit.

...didn't I say that in my post? ??? I'm confused.

EDIT: n/m, i see now. The sales for those weeks were different. Bah. People have no taste, I guess.

Impressive that Mariah still sold enough that week to warrant the radio stations panicking and adding "Through The Rain" en masse that week. I found it rather humourous how reactionary they were to the album's success.

[Dee]

Around 250k for both the first week.

It is their second singles which will be most important for them. If both of them are hits I can see them selling 2 million. If second single fails maybe around 1 million then.

[britrocks16]

I don't get one thing, if Mariah and J-lo sell 2 million their albums will be considered successful while if someone like Britney sells 3 million its a flop?

[Deleted]

Britrocks16 said:

I don't get one thing, if Mariah and J-lo sell 2 million their albums will be considered successful while if someone like Britney sells 3 million its a flop?

lol if Mariah's album sells anything less than 20 million, people will be calling it a flop.

[PT08]

275K for Jennifer and 225 K for Mariah. I think Bennifer might of wore too much on some people which will keep Jennifer under 300K

[Love Plastic Love]

Britrocks16 said:

I don't get one thing, if Mariah and J-lo sell 2 million their albums will be considered successful while if someone like Britney sells 3 million its a flop?

Jennifer never sold as high as the diamond range. She has always been around the 2-4 million mark. What is impressible about her is her ability to maintain that level of success. Artists sales normally go down from their debut or their largest album. She seems to have stayed pretty steady.

Mariah is coming off of a few flops. Or, not flops, but albums that sold under a million or barely over a million. 2 million for her would be an improvement.

Maybe its not fair, but if you see an artist go from two albums selling around 10 million, to an album selling 4, to an album selling 3 even with 2 huge hits, then it seems like they are getting less popular. Compared to an artist who sells around 3 million for 4 straight albums or an artist who improves on their sales.


Then again, Im not one of those people who calls ITZ a flop. Im just naming why the situations may be different.

[#LisaRinna]

Jens:
250k in first week(3.5 million worldwide in total sales)
Mariah:
330k in first week(5 million worldwide-Charmbraclet did sell over 6 million worldwide, so her new album will sell atleast 5 million, probably higher)

[Night Senses]

Mariah's downlow appearance in the music industry will pay off big time in March. I think the fact that she's only done a couple of collaborations since Charmbracelet and hasn't really been active at many events will help her. People need to miss you, as an artist, or feel like they need more, in order for there to be enough hype. Mariah will have that hype. She's got the Blender magazine cover coming out (which is already getting buzz) and so many things to look forward to. Things are set up quite well for her.

Jennifer, on the other hand, just released a hot song (minus the overzealous horns) and the video is great eye candy, but she's so overexposed that I'm not sure the hype will be there. Atleast, not as much as it is for Mariah's new album. Jennifer hasn't disappeared since she stepped on the scene. A break is unknown to her. But even still, she should do well in the beginning.

My prediction:
Mariah - 275K opening
Jennifer Lopez - 300K opening

But longterm? I think Mariah will be the winner.

[ryarboro]

Charmbracelet sold over 6 million WORLDWIDE!?!?! :o

*rubs eyes*

[Night Senses]

ryarboro said:

Charmbracelet sold over 6 million WORLDWIDE!?!?!  :o

*rubs eyes*

No, it didn't. It sold a solid 4 million at best. I don't know where 6 million came from.

[itsbeenaweek]

LoveAngelMusicLady said:

No, it didn't. It sold a solid 4 million at best. I don't know where 6 million came from.

Yeah it sold 4 million worldwide. "Glitter" sold 3 million worldwide to date. I'm gonna say this album will sell at least 5 million worldwide.

[allow that]

Theres no intrest in J. Lo anmore, Mariah will clearly sell a lotmore than her TRUST ME

[bluenote]

Darn, I must have been out of the country when the sensus taken and they asked everyone if they cared about J.Lo :'(

[strong4PMB!]

300k Mariah
300k Jenny.Lo

[Bob]

1,300,000 mariah, 12,000,000 total

78,000 j. lo, 436,712 total

[itsbeenaweek]

Bob said:

1,300,000 mariah, 12,000,000 total

78,000 j. lo, 436,712 total

LOL, I don't think so.

[freeek04]

I REALLY wish that'd happen, but it SO won't, lol.

So far Mariah and J.Lo are on equal footing thought. Both their singles debuted at #53. Good sign for Mariah for sure

[laguy03]

I think they will sell around the same amount. I have a feeling J.Lo's second single will be huge and it will be a hit by the time the album is released so I expect solid numbers. As for Mariah, her single is obviously doing really well and I think it will be great for her album sales.