First-week sales, who will win: Janet or Usher??

[ryarboro]

This one should be interesting...Usher comes out on March 23, followed by Janet on March 30th.

Janet sold 600,000 of her last album in the first week, while Usher shifted 210,000 copies. HOWEVER, Usher ended up moving 4.2 million copies, while Janet moved 3.0 million when all was said and done.

Given the fact that Usher is the hottest artist on radio right now, I expect him to move in the range of 400,000-450,000 copies this go round.

I expect Janet to move a little bit less, I will say about 375,000. Not bad considering she has no hit single.

[WhySoSerious?]

Usher will win.

The Velvet Rope should be a good indicator of how well Janet can sell with no hit single. That album did 202,000. I'm expecting the new one to beat that number because of the Super Bowl hype. She'll probably get around 300K.

[Jaffas85]

ryarboro said:

This one should be interesting...Usher comes out on March 23, followed by Janet on March 30th.

Janet sold 600,000 of her last album in the first week, while Usher shifted 210,000 copies.  HOWEVER, Usher ended up moving 4.2 million copies, while Janet moved 3.0 million when all was said and done.

Given the fact that Usher is the hottest artist on radio right now, I expect him to move in the range of 400,000-450,000 copies this go round.

I expect Janet to move a little bit less, I will say about 375,000. Not bad considering she has no hit single.

Usher will end Norah's reign at #1.

[Keith3000]

I agree that Usher will sell more in his first week...he may even keep Janet out of #1, though I'm not too sure about that...

[BookJones]

Usher all the way! Has a BIGGER hit song on Urban, Chr/R &Chr/pop. Unlike Janet. Girls will go running out to the store to buy the new Usher cd.

[Luckie Starchild]

It depends on whether Janet is going to do a lot of "mea culpa" interviews with Baba Wawa et al?

[jond7699]

I dont think it matters much about Janet's promotion. Usher will sell more in the 1st week regardless

[singingsparrow]

Usher should definitely out-sell Janet as far as first week figures are concerned, but let us not forget also "Confessions" is being released a week before "Damita Jo", so you'd have to expect Janet to take over #1 the week after Usher makes his Hot Shot Debut.

Though Usher may only have one week at #1, his album will have a lot more longevity than Janet on the chart. I predict a strong first couple weeks for Janet then a crash-and-burn down the chart, unless her second single pulls a Jessica Simpson.

"Confessions" First-Week Sales Predictions: 512,000
"Damita Jo" First-Week Sales Predictions: 325,000

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[HER MINAJesty]

I agree, I think Usher will outsell Janet in their respective first weeks.

I also agree that Usher will have longevity in the Top 10, with the smash success of "Yeah!" and now what looks to be a solid, even possibly a new smash in Burn.

Janet has no hits on the radio, I Want You is building but I'd still say not enough people know about it.

She still has 3 weeks before her album comes out, and the videos will help her, I suppose.

But Usher will outsell and outlast.

I can't really predict numbers, but I'd say 450-500k for Usher is a good bet, and around 300-325k for Janet.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Usher always seems to have big radio hits but he doesn't really start off high that first week. I think this time he will debut at #1 with somewhat modest sales figures and he may eventually out last Janet. Its really gonna depend on how good the buzz for Janet's album is after people have heard it. I think if the buzz is bad the week before then Janet will sell 300-350k. If the buzz is good for Janet the week before then Janet will sell 600-700k. Even if the Super Bowl publicity was bad I think more people know Janet has an album coming out than Usher. I'm wondering if pop radio will skip IWY altogether and start playing a new song. I'm predicting Usher to sell 400k either way it goes. So its really depending on Virgin records and Janet's album at this point.

Usher 400k regardless
Janet 300-350k worst case, 600-700k best case.

[Sean]

TCorey said:

Usher will win.

The Velvet Rope should be a good indicator of how well Janet can sell with no hit single.  That album did 202,000.  I'm expecting the new one to beat that number because of the Super Bowl hype.  She'll probably get around 300K.

I don't think The Velvet Rope is a good indicator. That came out over 6 years ago in 1997 when artists didn't routinely debut at #1 and sell a truckload of copies in their first week. The way albums sell in the first week has totally changed.

I hope Janet will sell more but Usher probably will - he has a younger fanbase and obviously the bigger hit right now.

[WhySoSerious?]

Sean said:

I don't think The Velvet Rope is a good indicator. That came out over 6 years ago in 1997 when artists didn't routinely debut at #1 and sell a truckload of copies in their first week. The way albums sell in the first week has totally changed.

Huh?  Albums did routinely debut at #1.  That's been standard since SoundScan's adoption in 1991.  The janet. album opened at #1 in 1993 selling 350,000 which was the most for a female artist at that time.  I think she might go 300-400K, but she won't top the numbers of the last album.  All For You was immaculately set up and the single was a complete smash. This album's set up has been all over the place and "Just A Little While" is weak.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Its hard to predict this one. I'm predicting the album will leak then a "No Scrubs" type situation will occur. This is where the radios start playing a song off the album that is so hot that radio immediately embraces it. Some of those samples are so HOT that on the sample alone I would say that they would have a distinct possibility of going to #1.

[Sean]

I didn't mean albums never debuted at #1. I meant that these days, even over the past few years, the market has become such that album sales are heavily front loaded. An album will come out and sell huge amounts in the first month (particularly the first week) compared to before. It's not the fact they debut at #1, it's the fact that albums these days sell crazy amounts in their first week. In the past few years it hasn't been uncommon to see albums sell 500,000 in their opening week when not long ago this would've broken records.

[ryarboro]

If Janet manages to sell 600-700k even in a best case scenario, I would be surprised...All For You didn't even do those numbers...

I am changing my numbers though...I think she will top 400,000.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

What do you mean AFY didn't do those numbers? It did 605k. That's between 600k -700k

[strong4PMB!]

Usher fa sho.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Usher had a #1 first single off his last album and it still only sold 210k the first week out.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

LOL! The Janet fans are predicting 3-5million in first week sales.

[jimmy74747]

Usher - 500K
Janet - 375K

[EvanJ]

Sean said:

I didn't mean albums never debuted at #1. I meant that these days, even over the past few years, the market has become such that album sales are heavily front loaded. An album will come out and sell huge amounts in the first month (particularly the first week) compared to before. It's not the fact they debut at #1, it's the fact that albums these days sell crazy amounts in their first week. In the past few years it hasn't been uncommon to see albums sell 500,000 in their opening week when not long ago this would've broken records.

You're right that album sell a bigger percentage of their copies first week than they used to, but there are still albums like the Grammy albums of the year "Come Away With Me" and the "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" soundtrack where an album that not many people have heard of when it comes out goes eight times platinum. You also have the 2002 albums by Coldplay, Good Charlotte, Matchbox Twenty, 3 Doors Down, Lil' Jon and the East Side Boyz, and Christina Aguilera, which sold well in 2003 with longevity. The recent artist who has the fastest falls with his many Number 1 albums, Jay-Z, has "The Black Album" lasting longer than his other albums.

[ryarboro]

I was checking the release schedule and happened to notice that J-Kwon is coming out the same day as Janet...I think there is a *very slight* possibility he could also challenge her for #1 that week.

If she does not do over 300k, she could be in trouble.