Predict The Peak

[jdmasta289]

I know I'm not nearly the level of alternative/rock guru many of you are, but lately I have been posting here more frequently.  Personally, I think the Alternative/Rock section is essentially the only forum here worth a damn - encouraging intelligent discussion and what-not, especially considering I find it difficult to even follow or participate in the vast Kelly Clarkson-Mariah Carey wasteland known as the pop forum.  This might seem tacky at first, but I believe it would be quite fun.  I'm trying my best to liven up the discussion and perhaps talk about something more than just individual songs.

Last night, I decided I wanted to start an alternative/rock "Predict the peak", much like they occasionally do in the pop section.  Feel free to predict your peaks on the active rock, rock, or alternative charts.  Also, feel free to add to this list or not respond to any.  I'll just predict the alternative peaks, because that's the only chart I truly follow.

Most of these songs I have heard; obviously there are several that haven't been released yet or that I haven't heard, so take those opinions lightly, considering those predictions are only a hunch, mostly based on previous material.  So here goes.

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot (11)
Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly (13) (or...)
Yellowcard - How I Go (17)
HIM - Killing Loneliness (37)
Hoobastank - If I Were You (17)
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity (6)
Blue October - Hate Me (3)
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel (46)
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure (10)
Dresden Dolls - Sing (41)
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home (28)
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio (29)
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me (47)
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles... (8)
Sevendust - Failure (45)
Nickelback - Savin' Me (27)
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good... (8)
Korn - Coming Undone (19)
System Of A Down - Lonely Day (4)
Godsmack - Speak (10)
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion (6)
10 Years - Through The Iris (8)
Matisyahu - Youth (13)
Shinedown - I Dare You (9)
Seether - The Gift (25)
Staind - Everything Changes (16)
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry (9)
Thursday - Counting 5,4,3,2,1 (42)

without hearing:
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California (1)
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become (8)
AFI - Miss Murder (10)
Dashboard Confessional - Don't Wait (14)
Killers - Where The White Boys Dance (3)

Why not add more?
Panic! At the Disco - The Only Difference...(6)
Death Cab For Cutie - Crooked Teeth (10)
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy (16)
Hard-Fi - Cash Machine (14)
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill (30)
Pearl Jam - World Wide Suicide (1) - what the hell?
She Wants Revenge - Tear You Apart (4)
Jack Johnson - Upside Down (25)
Depeche Mode - Suffer Well (35)

Nine Inch Nails will be #1 for the next 4 weeks; then possibly give way to the Foo Fighters or Pearl Jam for 1 week, before the Chili Peppers take over.  After that, it's pretty much up in the air.  I doubt Fall Out Boy can take over the spot considering a) it's already lost its bullet on pop and b) I don't see Nails losing spins at a considerable length anytime soon, considering the single is still relatively new.

[tortuga]

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot (15)
Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly (7)
Yellowcard - How I Go (48)
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity (1)
Blue October - Hate Me (4)
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure (5)
Dresden Dolls - Sing (46)
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home (30)
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio (43)
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles... (21)
Nickelback - Savin' Me (25)
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good... (17)
Korn - Coming Undone (28)
System Of A Down - Lonely Day (9)
Godsmack - Speak (5)
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion (7)
10 Years - Through The Iris (24)
Matisyahu - Youth (3)
Shinedown - I Dare You (2)
Seether - The Gift (16)
Staind - Everything Changes (14)
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry (7)


and:
Panic! At the Disco - The Only Difference...(2)
Death Cab For Cutie - Crooked Teeth (6)
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy (12)
Hard-Fi - Cash Machine (11)
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill (24)

[friday]

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot: #16
Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly: #10
HIM - Killing Loneliness: #28
Hoobastank - If I Were You: #23
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity: #3
Blue October - Hate Me: #6
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel: nothing
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure: #5
Dresden Dolls - Sing: #34
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home: #31
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio: #11
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me: #40
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles...: #6
Sevendust - Failure: #39
Nickelback - Savin' Me: #21
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good...: #12
Korn - Coming Undone: #25
System Of A Down - Lonely Day: #8
Godsmack - Speak: #9
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion: #3
10 Years - Through The Iris: #16
Matisyahu - Youth: #3
Shinedown - I Dare You: #7
Seether - The Gift: #26
Staind - Everything Changes: #20
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry: #7
Thursday - Counting 5,4,3,2,1: #31

without hearing:
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California: #1
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become: #5
AFI - Miss Murder: #4
Dashboard Confessional - Don't Wait: #6
Killers - Where The White Boys Dance: #1

[Chato]

This is always fun, just like report cards. Are you planning to make a game out of this just like they do on the CHR forum?


Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot AR:4 Alt:9
Hoobastank - If I Were You AR:26 Alt:12
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity AR:47 Alt:4
Blue October - Hate Me AR:28 Alt:3
Dresden Dolls - Sing Alt:40
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home AR:14 Alt:27
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio Alt:21
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me Alt:40
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles... Alt:16
Nickelback - Savin' Me AR:3 Alt:19
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good... Alt:6
Korn - Coming Undone AR:6 Alt:17
System Of A Down - Lonely Day AR:5 Alt:6
Godsmack - Speak Alt:11
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion Alt:4
10 Years - Through The Iris AR:2 Alt:16
Matisyahu - Youth Alt:7
Shinedown - I Dare You AR:2 Alt:13
Seether - The Gift AR:6 Alt:26
Staind - Everything Changes AR:5 Alt:17
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry Alt:5
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California Alt:5
Panic! At the Disco - The Only Difference...Alt:4
Death Cab For Cutie - Crooked Teeth Alt:12
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy AR:5 Alt:13
Hard-Fi - Cash Machine I think this is done
Pearl Jam - World Wide Suicide Alt:2 AR:4
She Wants Revenge - Tear You Apart Alt:5
Jack Johnson - Upside Down Alt:31
Depeche Mode - Suffer Well Alt:35

[Pipa]

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot: #10
Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly: #15
HIM - Killing Loneliness: #21
Hoobastank - If I Were You: #20
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity: #1
Blue October - Hate Me: #3
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel: #43
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure: #16
Dresden Dolls - Sing: #35
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home: #24
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio: #23
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me: #41
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles...: #11
Sevendust - Failure: #33
Nickelback - Savin' Me: #14
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good On The Dancefloor: #8
Korn - Coming Undone: #21
System Of A Down - Lonely Day: #9
Godsmack - Speak: #6
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion: #3
10 Years - Through The Iris: #9
Matisyahu - Youth: #3
Shinedown - I Dare You: #5
Seether - The Gift: #19
Staind - Everything Changes: #10
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry: #6
Thursday - Counting 5,4,3,2,1: #31

without hearing:
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California: #1
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become: #4
AFI - Miss Murder: #7
Dashboard Confessional - Don't Wait: #8
Killers - Where The White Boys Dance: #1

[singingsparrow]

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot: #8
Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly: #12
Yellowcard - How I Go: #15
HIM - Killing Loneliness: #39
Hoobastank - If I Were You: #24
Weezer - This Is Such A Pity: #11
Blue October - Hate Me: #2
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel: Will Not Chart
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure: #16
Dresden Dolls - Sing: #44
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home: #30
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio: #26
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me: #44
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles...: #13
Sevendust - Failure: Will Not Chart
Nickelback - Savin' Me: #27
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good...: #4
Korn - Coming Undone: #17
System Of A Down - Lonely Day: #6
Godsmack - Speak: #11
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion: #9
10 Years - Through The Iris: #9
Matisyahu - Youth: #15
Shinedown - I Dare You: #5
Seether - The Gift: #38
Staind - Everything Changes: #26
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry: #11
Thursday - Counting 5,4,3,2,1: #40

without hearing:
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California: #1 (five weeks)
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become: #4
AFI - Miss Murder: #8
Dashboard Confessional - Don't Wait: #12
Killers - Where The White Boys Dance: #7

Panic! At the Disco - The Only Difference...: #7
Death Cab For Cutie - Crooked Teeth: #8
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy: #23
Hard-Fi - Cash Machine: #15
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill: #29
Pearl Jam - World Wide Suicide: #1 (three weeks)
She Wants Revenge - Tear You Apart: #8
Jack Johnson - Upside Down: #26
Depeche Mode - Suffer Well: #30

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[Sox5452]

This is for ACTIVE ROCK:

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot (18)
Hoobastank - If I Were You (23)
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel (24)
Sevendust - Failure (14)
Nickelback - Savin' Me (10)
Korn - Coming Undone (11)
System Of A Down - Lonely Day (4)
Godsmack - Speak (1) (already #1)
10 Years - Through The Iris (6)
Shinedown - I Dare You (3)
Seether - The Gift (6)
Staind - Everything Changes (8)
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become (5)
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy (8)
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill (39)
Pearl Jam - World Wide Suicide (16)
Default - It Only Hurts (33)

[singingsparrow]

Active Rock:

*****************

Avenged Sevenfold - Beast And The Harlot: #8
Hoobastank - If I Were You: #27
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel: #9
Sevendust - Failure: #15
Nickelback - Savin' Me: #9
Korn - Coming Undone: #8
System Of A Down - Lonely Day: #5
10 Years - Through The Iris: #4
Shinedown - I Dare You: #2
Seether - The Gift: #13
Staind - Everything Changes: #22
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become: #3
Rob Zombie - Foxy Foxy: #9
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill: #41
Pearl Jam - World Wide Suicide: #4
Default - It Only Hurts: #31

*************

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[jdmasta289]

Yes, I'll make it into a game. I've seen how they tally it up in the pop forums, but we probably shouldn't continue predicting for too long, considering songs can lose bullets, jump up unexpectedly, etc., giving late posters an obvious advantage.

I wonder which song would win an alternative survivor?

[singingsparrow]

jdmasta289 said:

Yes, I'll make it into a game.  I've seen how they tally it up in the pop forums, but we probably shouldn't continue predicting for too long, considering songs can lose bullets, jump up unexpectedly, etc., giving late posters an obvious advantage.

I wonder which song would win an alternative survivor?

Hard to say. This format is quite a melting pot, thus attracts a diversity of listeners.

Depeche Mode remains very popular, so "Suffer Well" I imagine would be a contender. I envision Death Cab For Cutie, Yeah Yeah Yeahs and Coheed & Cambria also popular, with The Killers being the group with an intense like and an intense dislike polarization. And finally, Jack Johnson resonates strong on likeability, even if some would accuse him as simplistic.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[friday]

singingsparrow said:

...The Killers being the group with an intense like and an intense dislike polarization.

Well, I remember the first time we had an Alternative survivor, they wound up with the final two songs on the board. So I'm not sure I'd characterize it quite like that.

[tortuga]

How did you guys do? I did pretty bad but I'm still waiting for other songs to reach their peaks.

The peaks for Alternative (only the ones that I know of)

System Of A Down - Lonely Day (Peak: 8)
Hawthorne Heights - Saying Sorry (Peak: 7)
Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Gold Lion (Peak: 18)
Death Cab For Cutie - Crooked Teeth (Peak: 11)
Dresden Dolls - Sing (Peak: 48)
Matisyahu - Youth (Peak: 21)
Panic! At the Disco - The Only Difference (Peak: 4)
Godsmack - Speak (Peak: 10)

and Avenged Sevenfold, Weezer, and Fall Out Boy all flopped.

[jdmasta289]

Thanks, Tortuga, for bringing this back up. I hadn't forgotten about it, and thought about updating, but I thought I might give it some more time.

Here are several more that we still might want to give some more time to. Also, does anyone know how to tally up votes for PTP?

Yellowcard - Rough Landing, Holly
HIM - Killing Loneliness
Blue October - Hate Me
Hinder - Lips Of An Angel
Taking Back Sunday - Make Damn Sure
Dresden Dolls - Sing
Coheed & Cambria - Welcome Home (Although it's likely done...)
Vines - Don't Listen To The Radio (I guess it's done??)
Morrissey - You Have Killed Me (Done?)
Fall Out Boy - A Little Less Sixteen Candles... (Done?)
Sevendust - Failure (Hmmm....)
Nickelback - Savin' Me
Arctic Monkeys - I Bet You Look Good...
Korn - Coming Undone (Going back up)
System Of A Down - Lonely Day (Probably done)
10 Years - Through The Iris (Done?)
Matisyahu - Youth (Probably done)
Shinedown - I Dare You (Probably done)
Staind - Everything Changes (Probably done)
Thursday - Counting 5,4,3,2,1

without hearing:
Three Days Grace - Animal I Have Become (*My Addition*)
AFI - Miss Murder (*My Addition*)
Dashboard Confessional - Don't Wait (*My Addition*)
Killers - Where The White Boys Dance (*My Addition*)
30 Seconds To Mars - The Kill

[friday]

jdmasta289 said:

Also, does anyone know how to tally up votes for PTP?

Basically, it's the absolute value of the difference between the peak and the prediction. So if it peaked at #19 and you predict #11, you get 8 points. Obviously, you don't want points, and the person with the fewest points wins. Also, if a song fails to chart, I believe it's generally given a default #51 peak.

[Matt4319]

Fall Out Boy is bulletless at #46. Surely they must have got into the top 30 at some point...?

[tortuga]

No, it never did. I think it only peaked at #44. It bombed badly.

[American Idiot]

A Little Less Sixteen Candles wasn't exactly the right single to release to Alternative in my opinion, but I expect it to do fairly well on Pop.