10/24 Pop Chart

[ted11804]

Thought we should make a topic for this.....

Looks like the Top 3 will stay the same and Maroon 5 and Santana will make Top 5!

-Will Bow Wow get passed already?!?! He's going to get to the Top 40 with a -173 bullet!

-Kelly Clarkson looks like she's finally lost her bullet. :'(
(only -13 though)

-Is Sarai going to be on N&A :o

I hope "Perfect" can go Top 10. I bet it will get to around #22 or #23 by next week with a huge increase in gains. I bet it will burst open and shoot up in the next 3 weeks (like Outkast and Baby Bash right now, and like Nickelback is about to do)

-Top 50 Entries: No Doubt, Missy Elliott, (Fuel back on & Blaque debuting with recurrents?)

Can someone list the recurrents of the next few weeks?

[irice22]

What's going recurrent this week? I thought it was just Beyoncé.

This battle for #1 is so intense, but I really don't care much who gets it anymore. I wonder what could be the next #1 after these two battle it out. Maybe Santana... or Maroon 5? They both seem to be gradually gaining more and more each day.

It's great to see "More to Life" doing almost as well as "Stuck." I hope she can hold off Baby Bash so she can stay at #12. Now she'll be able to be release a third single, maybe "Hesitation" or "Strong Enough."

Hilary Duff making the Top 15! Never would have expected it! People over here love it, it's always coming in at #2 on the request line, I've never seen it at #1 though.

I feel really bad for P!nk, hopefully she can start gaining more. In my opinion, this is her best debut single. Her follow-ups have always been better than her debuts so I am expectin quite a bit from her. I think this deserves to better than the awfully annoying "Get This Party Started."

Looks like Nelly Furtado will have her fourth top 40 hit this week! It's weird, i used to not like her, but now I do because of this song.

[Cerebro]

ted11804 said:

Can someone list the recurrents of the next few weeks?

Recurrent Schedule:

This Week (10/24):
Beyonce feat. Jay-Z

Next Week (10/31):
Jason Mraz (unless he holds on for another week, not very likely though)

Two Weeks (11/7):
none

Three Weeks (11/14):
Good Charlotte (will probably fall of naturally before then), Chingy

Four Weeks (11/21):
Lumidee

Five Weeks (11/28):
Justin Timberlake, The Ataris

Whenever They Fall Below #20:
Santana feat. Alex Band, Maroon5 (both going into week 17), Black Eyed Peas feat. Justin Timberlake (week 23), Nelly/P.Diddy/Murphy Lee (week 18)

[Pet Shop Boy]

Hopefully mandy Moore can stay ahead of Nelly Furtado until the final update, that way Beyonce's removal will get her a higher peak.

[j]

I think Jason Mraz will go recurrent this week. He's 7 spins away from doing so. (He only needs to at least tie Fabolous in spin totals to go recurrent).

That makes a rather fast fall from peak position. What was his chart movement in the past month?

Eep, Sarai's Ladies is STILL there??! I only noticed it since it was mentioned above.

Will Liz Phair ever enter the Top 20?

[FreakyFlyBry]

Ludacris is 49 spins behind Bow Wow right now... I hope he makes up the difference (assuming Jason Mraz will fall below the top 20) and prevent Bow Wow from making the top 40.

Yay for Nelly Furtado's climb into the top 40!

Yuck... why did "Get Low" have to make top 10? Hopefully next week either Britney or Baby Bash will knock it out.

I hope Black Eyed Peas, Michelle Branch, and Nickelback pick up their gains.

[irice22]

Liz Phair could make Top 20 and that would be great! It seems like every week she ends up at #25 as she holds onto her small bullet. I hope she can hold on to it for longer.

It looks like Michelle Branch is slowly gaining more again.

I'd much rather see "Get Low" in the Top 10 than "Suga Suga."

[radiorules]

Britney is slowing down Dramatically! Her gains are still high but her day to day spin gains are increasing less day to day. So far today she has only moved up 70 spins, it will probably be a little higher by tonight but this is still bad considering this time last week she was gaining 400 spins a day. If Britney keeps this up, she won't go passed #14. We will see if her SNL performance (LOL a performance helping Britney out? Nah) and her "Making The Video" this tuesday can give the song some steam (didn't work for Dirrty).

[matm2004]

radiorules said:

Britney is slowing down Dramatically! Her gains are still high but her day to day spin gains are increasing less day to day. So far today she has only moved up 70 spins, it will probably be a little higher by tonight but this is still bad considering this time last week she was gaining 400 spins a day. If Britney keeps this up, she won't go passed #14. We will see if her SNL performance (LOL a performance helping Britney out? Nah) and her "Making The Video" this tuesday can give the song some steam (didn't work for Dirrty).

[singingsparrow]

First of all, big "Ouch!" for Jason Mraz. I figured his losses would be more like those of "Unwell" or "Bring Me To Life", even when so many singles are rising right now above 3000 spins. And with his debut album skinking in the latter half of the Billboard 200, is he in danger of earning only one hit from this album?

Also look at Britney Spears slow down (I'm not suprised at all). Can her single's momentum plunge sharply just like that of Pink's "Trouble", possibly even fail to make the Top 10! I still predict she'll make the Top 10, but only make an appearance there for 3 or 4 weeks. Her gains have shrunk since last Saturday by 40%.

Finally, a number of potential hits, including matchbox twenty's "Bright Lights", John Mayer's "Bigger Than My Body", and Liz Phair's "Why Can't I?" have all slowed down to weak bullets, but it also seems likely that once a few singles fall from the Top 10, their gains will pick up again, with the possible exception of John Mayer, taken his single has also slowed down on Hot AC.

Now, for the more successful cut this week.

Outkast is soaring now, destined to rise deep into the Top 20 next week, with a possible #1 on their hands. In my mind, they will have a most deserving #1 should they make it.

Santana is picking up again with "Why Don't You & I?", and it is possible he may finally be able to leapfrog Maroon 5 and rise to a possible peak of #3 by next week, who Maroon 5 has been fending off Santana for quite some time now but may finally lose their bullet but go with Top 5 acclaim.

Uggghhhhhh. Baby Bash is also experiencing huge gains, one of the worst songs currently on the chart.

As for potential recoveries in gains, Michelle Branch may be able to recover with "Breathe", though her album is experiencing lukewarm sales and this may affect her singles promotional performance. Meanwhile, Nickelback is enjoying healthy early sales and this will encourage "Someday" to get added to higher rotations, thus their new single has potential to suddenly explode.

Also keep an eye on Nelly Furtado and No Doubt's latest. They are poised to also become future hits.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[Leafstorm]

radiorules said:

Britney is slowing down Dramatically! Her gains are still high but her day to day spin gains are increasing less day to day. So far today she has only moved up 70 spins, it will probably be a little higher by tonight but this is still bad considering this time last week she was gaining 400 spins a day. If Britney keeps this up, she won't go passed #14. We will see if her SNL performance (LOL a performance helping Britney out? Nah) and her "Making The Video" this tuesday can give the song some steam (didn't work for Dirrty).

I don't know where you've got the "400" number from. The same time last week, she was gaining about 150 spins a day on CHR/Pop, and she has remained relatively steady throughout the week up to Thursday. I don't see how it is "bad" for songs to slow down just a bit for several days when her weekly gains are still over 1000.

[HER MINAJesty]

Stacie Orrico's 3rd single will be "Instead", it was announced a while ago.

[matm2004]

Virgoluvsmusic said:

Stacie Orrico's 3rd single will be "Instead", it was announced a while ago.

I thought it was announced it would be "I promise". But I would rather have "Instead"...that is a great song!

[Mega248]

Sarai most likely won't be in N&A because she's obviously already peaked. Though "Going Under" lost -273 spins last week but got listed because it got an add(along with 6 drops).

j said:

I think Jason Mraz will go recurrent this week. He's 7 spins away from doing so. (He only needs to at least tie Fabolous in spin totals to go recurrent).

If it means anything, Jason Mraz was behind Fabolous yesterday, meaning Fabolous lost more spins over the past 24 hours.

j said:

That makes a rather fast fall from peak position. What was his chart movement in the past month?.

Going as far back as I can remember off the top of my head:
-24-21-23-19-17-16-9-7-7-11-9-10-15-recurrent(?)

Almost looks like one of those runs from AT40 back when they were using that other chart with that ridiculous recurrent rule.

[Mega248]

Leafstorm said:

I don't know where you've got the "400" number from. The same time last week, she was gaining about 150 spins a day on CHR/Pop, and she has remained relatively steady throughout the week up to Thursday. I don't see how it is "bad" for songs to slow down just a bit for several days when her weekly gains are still over 1000.

"Me Against The Music" actually did gain 450 spins a day for a couple days, but you're right that it only gained about 150 this time last week.

[allow that]

radiorules said:

We will see if her SNL performance (LOL a performance helping Britney out? Nah)

I'm going to ask you to please stop making derogatory comments about Britney in evey single post you make about her. You don't have to like her, and by now we all know you don't... so please respect Britney's fans here and give them the same kind of respect you'd want regarding Christina.

[matm2004]

Jersey said:

I'm going to ask you to please stop making derogatory comments about Britney in evey single post you make about her. You don't have to like her, and by now we all know you don't... so please respect Britney's fans here and give them the same kind of respect you'd want regarding Christina.

*applauds* Thank you!! :)

[EvanJ]

Which chart run is better?:
+2,500-+1,500-+500-(-500)-(1,500)-fall off chart
The slow chart run of "Through The Rain"

[radiorules]

There was nothing wrong about my post, just because i was stating the fact that Britney is slowing down? Someone needs to hear this so a lot of you don't end up getting your hopes up if this song doesn't end up doing too well. I like Britney and all, but if she is going to lip synch her SNL performance then it will be a bad move, that's all i meant by her performance not helping her out. And i am asking you to not get your hopes up on the video as well, because i know i got my hopes up thinking that as soon as the "Dirrty" video would get released it would sky rocket up the charts, but it didn't, and neither did Pink's "Trouble".

[radiorules]

Final update for today is in, Britney only moved up 83 spins from yesterday which equals a +581 move weekly. Yesterday i admitted that the only time i would say Britney is in trouble is if she starts gaining below 100 spins daily, well she has, she's in trouble!

[irice22]

I don't see why you would say this song is in trouble, there are plenty of other songs in more trouble than this.

[Leafstorm]

There are about 5.5 hours to go before the day is over (in the Eastern Time Zone). I don't understand how you can say that she is in trouble when Mediabase has only counted half a day worth of spins for today... It's tomorrow morning's update which shows how she has done today...

[ExActLy99]

Why has "Suga Suga's" bullet doubled this week? Yuck! Terrible sign, that and "Get Low" makes Top 10! Come on I'm ready for Outkast! I hope the songs makes #1. I think they'll be the next #1 after "Here Without You" It's a great song! Stacie Orrico is looking great with "More To Life" the song is still chugging along with her small bullet, like Liz Phair, only stronger. Matchbox Twenty won't make Top 20 until next week. Nickelback & Michelle Branch's gains are back up slightly, I think they'll both see gains back into the +400's this upcoming week. Nelly Furtado and No Doubt are also looking really good. I hope that Dido, Fuel, Sheryl Crow, Good Charlotte and Sarah McLaghlan can pick up their gains, there all really good songs that deserve Top 40!

[j]

Leafstorm said:

I don't know where you've got the "400" number from.

I think it was that particular day (last Saturday?) when the update came late - around 9am instead of 4:30am when she "gained" 400 spins. Considering the fact that she had 0 spins the week before, obviously the later the update in the first week, the larger her gain appears to be.

radiosucks can claim all he wants that the derogatory comments he's making are in "pure fun," but we all know better. I think he should stop it too. I myself am getting a little tired of proving him wrong.

[irice22]

radiosucks can claim all he wants that the derogatory comments he's making are in "pure fun," but we all know better. I think he should stop it too. I myself am getting a little tired of proving him wrong.

I agree! Flash forward to a few months later: "I was just kidding about Britney stalling at #14, did you actually think I thought it was gonna peak at the same position as 'Dirrty'?"

[Leafstorm]

j said:

I think it was that particular day (last Saturday?) when the update came late - around 9am instead of 4:30am when she "gained" 400 spins. Considering the fact that she had 0 spins the week before, obviously the later the update in the first week, the larger her gain appears to be.

I asked him that question because he must have gotten the numbers wrong. The gain of 400 spins took place during Friday morning's update... so in reality this reflected MATM's performance for Thursday and part of the morning on Friday. I don't understand why he's making such a big deal about it. One week ago (which is Saturday- NOT Friday), the airplay numbers have already come down... I don't understand what's his point of saying "Oh she's in trouble... blah blah blah" , when her gains had been steady pretty much for most of the week... He certainly sounded like it's wrong to see decline in spins after stations putting the song back into regular rotation...

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

Britney is slowing down Dramatically! Her gains are still high but her day to day spin gains are increasing less day to day. So far today she has only moved up 70 spins, it will probably be a little higher by tonight but this is still bad considering this time last week she was gaining 400 spins a day. If Britney keeps this up, she won't go passed #14. We will see if her SNL performance (LOL a performance helping Britney out? Nah) and her "Making The Video" this tuesday can give the song some steam (didn't work for Dirrty).

Oh hahahaha, this must be another one of your exaggerations....

I would still LOVE to know why a decrease in gains from +2000 to +1200 is a really BAD thing... come on, songs cannot gain +2000 forever. In fact, since the Mediabase site has been up, I don't know of one song that had +4000 spins recorded in two weeks...

MATM will DEFINITELY peak beyond #14, so if that is your prediction, you will sadly mistaken next week (or maybe even this week). And I don't think anyone really thinks this song would be a "builder"... we all knew it would have major spin gains and peak relatively quickly. How fast that will happen varies as you ask different people.

Back to the rest of the pop chart...

1) Booo at Get Low getting into the top 10!!! Shame on you pop radio! >:(
2) Stacie Orrico is starting to pick up again! But it doesn't look good for a top 10 spot. Oh well...
3) Low loses its bullet! :( This deserved so much better.
4) I'm getting worried again for "Bright Lights". (I noticed how people have neglected to acknowledge this ones nearly 60% drop in gains over last week...) It still has enough umph to make top 20, but I don't know about top 10... perhaps the recurrentitis is kicking in here. On the Mediabase recurrent chart, Unwell only lost about 111 spins over last week.
5) Hurray for Clay Aiken!!! I hope this song hits the top 40 soon!

[radiorules]

i think it will peak at #12. Once again, whether it happened saturday or friday i see no point, it still happened, she did gain 400 spins at one point and it's no big deal that i was off by a day (my god this board goes nuts when it comes to technicality), and JCMF3, no one said anything about her gains not falling, we all knew her gains would fall and i expected it to Fall from +2000 to +1200, everything MATM has done so far has been expected from the get go, it's just that she might go through a dark cloud next week judging by today's performance.

[Leafstorm]

It's a tight race between 3 Doors Down and Beyonce for the top spot... They are just 10 spins apart this morning.

[FreakyFlyBry]

It'll be close between Ludacris and No Doubt for the #40 spot this week, since both Jason Mraz and Beyoncé will go recurrent.