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Post by singingsparrow on Nov 16, 2003 18:44:51 GMT -5
It certainly looks like the 12/5 chart may officially be the nastiest and most competitive week below the Top 10 we have seen in a while here on CHR/Pop radio.
First, let us bring on the dark horses, all within 10 or more weeks in the Top 40:
matchbox twenty: Bright Lights
Michelle Branch: Breathe
Liz Phair: Why Can't I?
Staind: So Far Away
Now, here are the sterlings, increasing more rapidly in airplay and only recently making the Top 40.
Christina Aguilera: The Voice Within
Ludacris: Stand Up
Clay Aiken: Invisible
Chingy: Holidae In
Plus, you have Nickelback, No Doubt, and Simple Plan, and seven out of ten singles in the Top 10 all bullet-less, bound to allow room for some of these singles to go Top 10.
The question is, who will be the winners and who will be the losers?
Obviously there will be non Top-10 casualties on both sides between the turtles and the hares, while some lucky ones will reign supreme.
Who do you think out of these singles all fighting for the Top 10 nearing the "two-week freeze" will rise above the rest?
Sincerely,
Noah Eaton
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Post by singingsparrow on Nov 16, 2003 18:52:35 GMT -5
My Predictions for Future Top-10 Winners:
From the "dark horse" category the winner will be:
matchbox twenty: Bright Lights
From the "sterling" category, the winners will be:
Clay Aiken: Invisible
Ludacris: Stand Up
And, from in-between:
Nickelback: Someday
No Doubt: It's My Life
Simple Plan: Perfect (followed by quick fall)
Sincerely,
Noah Eaton
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Nov 16, 2003 19:17:46 GMT -5
Dark horses
matchbox twenty: Bright Lights: #14
Michelle Branch: Breathe: #8 (I think she'll pick up and make top 10)
Liz Phair: Why Can't I?: #16 (she's probably peaked)
Staind: So Far Away: #23 (also probably peaked)
Sterlings
Christina Aguilera: The Voice Within: #4
Ludacris: Stand Up: #7
Clay Aiken: Invisible: #9
Chingy: Holidae In: #8
Nickelback - Someday: #12
No Doubt - It's My Life: #3
Simple Plan - Perfect: #11 (similar run to Stacie Orrico "Stuck")
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Post by ExActLy99 on Nov 16, 2003 19:21:07 GMT -5
Christina Aguilera still seems to be doing quite well with a bullet around +800, I still think she'll make Top 10, if anything I think she is a darkhorse for #1.
My predictions for Dec. 5th Chart..
#1 - Outkast/Hey Ya
#2 - 3 Doors Down/Here Without You
#3 - Baby Bash/Suga Suga
#4 - Beyonce/Baby Boy
#2-4 will all be very close.
#5 - Trapt/Headstrong
#6 - Fountains of Wayne/Stacy's Mom
#7 - No Doubt/It's My Life
#8 - Stacie Orrico/More To Life
#9 - Santana/WHy Don't You & I
#10 - Simple Plan/Perfect or Christina Aguilera/The Voice Within'
#11-15 (no order)
Matchbox Twenty/Bright Lights (I just can't let this go)
Maroon5/Harder to Breathe
Nickelback/Someday
Britney Spears/Me Against The Music
And of course either Simple Plan or Christina
#16-20 (again no order)
Ludacris/Stand Up
Chingy/Holidae In
Clay Aiken/Invisible
Nelly/Shake Ya Tailfeather
Michelle Branch/Breathe
I think "Get Low" will drop pretty fast this week.
*Don't forget that the 12/5 chart, believe it or not, is really only 2 weeks away! Look at the 11/7 charts, not that much changes, I don't expect the Top 10 to change that much, maybe just a few entries. Besides anymore the chart is very unpredicatble.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Nov 16, 2003 19:50:04 GMT -5
Dark horses
matchbox twenty: Bright Lights
I think this will keep it's bullet for awhile. It wouldn't surprise me if this goes Top 10 as late as January.
Michelle Branch: Breathe
I see this keeping a modest bullet of about +200 and but eventually making Top 10 once the competition simmers down a little. This is her most radio-friendly single to date.
Liz Phair: Why Can't I?
She may keep the bullet for 2 or 3 more weeks, but since this song HAS been around since early summer, I agree that it either peaked position wise.
Staind: So Far Away
This song will fail to make the Top 20.
Sterlings
Christina Aguilera: The Voice Within
Top 5, but not #1.
Ludacris: Stand Up
This will be the next token-rap song in the Top 10, til Jay-Z eventually gets there with "Change Clothes"
Clay Aiken: Invisible
I don't know what to think about this. I think it probably will go Top 10 but I don't see it with too much lomgevity.
Chingy: Holidae In
I think this will peak around #11 right around year's end.
Nickelback - Someday
This will keep its bullet for a few more weeks, and probably close in on the Top 10 but never actually make it. #12 or so.
No Doubt - It's My Life
This is definitely going Top 3. I'd say it has a shot of going to #1 after "Hey Ya"
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EvanJ
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Post by EvanJ on Nov 16, 2003 23:20:24 GMT -5
#11-15 (no order) Matchbox Twenty/Bright Lights (I just can't let this go) Maroon5/Harder to Breathe Nickelback/Someday Britney Spears/Me Against The Music And of course either Simple Plan or Christina #16-20 (again no order) Ludacris/Stand Up Chingy/Holidae In Clay Aiken/Invisible Nelly/Shake Ya Tailfeather Michelle Branch/Breathe Out of Simple Plan and Christina, whichever doesn't go in 11-15 should go in 16-20. |
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Ragin
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Post by Ragin on Nov 17, 2003 9:16:03 GMT -5
Maybe this happened with Unwell, I don't know, but it appears to me that Bright Lights is about done. After steady gains, the song has been just barely over 3600 spins for several days now. Most of the time when I see this it means the song is done.
If it is, it has got to be one of the more underrated songs.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Nov 17, 2003 9:53:08 GMT -5
Maybe this happened with Unwell, I don't know, but it appears to me that Bright Lights is about done. After steady gains, the song has been just barely over 3600 spins for several days now. Most of the time when I see this it means the song is done. If it is, it has got to be one of the more underrated songs. Yes, Bright Lights might have stalled, but with songs like this, you can never tell what will happen. Look at (There's Gotta Be) More To Life which stalled for almost a month in the 25-30 range and then took off, started stalling AGAIN in the 11-13 range, and although it will most likely lose its bullet this week, the song is still hanging onto the bottom part of the top 10. So, I guess anything is still possible, but the future does look sort of bleak.  |
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Nov 17, 2003 12:43:53 GMT -5
What would you guys think about sticky-ing whatever topic is dealing with the current week's pop chart?
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Nov 17, 2003 12:48:34 GMT -5
What would you guys think about sticky-ing whatever topic is dealing with the current week's pop chart? Go for it. |
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Post by radiorules on Nov 17, 2003 14:00:24 GMT -5
You guys are forgetting about Britney! She can have a top ten next week by default! Her bullet is down to +6 and she is about 550 spins away from No Doubt. What will happen there? Will Britney lose a lot and fall below No Doubt, or will she stablilize and sneak a week into the top ten?
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Nov 17, 2003 14:26:10 GMT -5
matchbox twenty: Bright Lights: #16
Michelle Branch: Breathe: #9
Liz Phair: Why Can't I?: #15
Staind: So Far Away: #22
Christina Aguilera: The Voice Within: #7
Ludacris: Stand Up: #13
Clay Aiken: Invisible: #8
Chingy: Holidae In: #14
Nickelback - Someday: #12
No Doubt - It's My Life: #5
Simple Plan - Perfect: #10
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mst3k
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This space for rent
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Post by mst3k on Nov 17, 2003 14:38:51 GMT -5
What would you guys think about sticky-ing whatever topic is dealing with the current week's pop chart? (Although this topic is technically dealing with the pop chart two weeks from now, so should it be stickied yet?)  |
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Nov 17, 2003 14:48:54 GMT -5
(Although this topic is technically dealing with the pop chart two weeks from now, so should it be stickied yet?) LOL, I didn't even think about that. Where the heck is the 11/28 pop chart topic? |
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Nov 17, 2003 16:04:27 GMT -5
Slightly confused by some of the posts in this forum. I thought that we were predicting where songs will be on the 12/5 chart? Do people really think "Breathe", "Invisible", or "The Voice Within" will reach #8 on the 12/5 chart (2 charts from now)? The latter has a better shot, but still sort of a longshot.
I think that No Doubt will take a top 10 spot from either Britney or Stacie, with a possible top 10 entry from Simple Plan on 12/5. The Voice Within will probably make #11 or 12 on the 12/5 chart.
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Post by FreakyFlyBry on Nov 17, 2003 16:09:05 GMT -5
Slightly confused by some of the posts in this forum. I thought that we were predicting where songs will be on the 12/5 chart? Do people really think "Breathe", "Invisible", or "The Voice Within" will reach #8 on the 12/5 chart (2 charts from now)? The latter has a better shot, but still sort of a longshot. I think that No Doubt will take a top 10 spot from either Britney or Stacie, with a possible top 10 entry from Simple Plan on 12/5. The Voice Within will probably make #11 or 12 on the 12/5 chart. To make things clearer: In my post, I predicted where the songs will eventually peak. |
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Post by ted11804 on Nov 17, 2003 16:29:08 GMT -5
Ludacris: Stand UpThis will be the next token-rap song in the Top 10, til Jay-Z eventually gets there with "Change Clothes" Wouldn't Kelis's "Milkshake" get there about the same time as Jay-Z? Or will Kelis perform like Bow Wow did? |
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Post by ExActLy99 on Nov 17, 2003 16:43:31 GMT -5
In my post I predicted the Top 20 in 2 weeks, and EvanJ I put Simple Plan or Christina at #10, and then also put them in the #11-15 range. I think there are some people who are really rushing these songs up the chart, I highly doubt that Michelle Branch is going to be in the Top 10 in just a little over 12 days. As I stated in my post look at the chart 12 days ago and look at now, yes there is some songs that have changed quite a bit (Christina & Chingy) but still most songs have only moved by no more than 4 or 5 positions unless there is a large number of songs dropping like crazy. Also add that from Staind (#25) to Stacie (#9) there is a 2100 spin range.
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