JayBoozer
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 7,694
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Post by JayBoozer on Jan 31, 2004 14:01:56 GMT -5
In the next 5 weeks I think Jessica and Evanescence will both grab #1.
I'm putting at least 4 number 1 contenders and the current number 1 predictions for the next 5 weeks.
This is based on CURRENT mediabase stats, 2/06 is representing what mediabase will look like in a week.
Date| "With You" "TWYM" "Toxic" "Numb" "My Immortal"
2/06 7000 8650 5800 5900 5600
2/13 7600 8500 6600 6350 6500
2/20 8050 8300 7300 6700 7400
2/27 8350 7800 7900 7000 8200
3/05 8500 7150 8200 7100 8600
Usher should have around 6500-7500 by March too. That' just my predictions. . . this is based on the trend that Britney will continue to lose bullet gradually, that Jessica will be decreasing in bullet by next week, Ev will be staying constant with their bullet, Outkast losing their bullet by next week, and Linkin Park decreasing in bullet from the start. I think Jessica may have #1 for at least 1 week and My Immortal will have at least 1 week too, right now I'm seeing Britney peaking at 2 or 3.
by 3/05 I think the top 5 will look like this:
1.Evanescence- My Immortal +
2.Jessica Simpson- With You +
3.Britney Spears- Toxic +
4.Linkin Park- Numb +
5.Usher- Yeah +/Outkast- The Way You Move -
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Jan 31, 2004 14:08:14 GMT -5
If thats the top 5, pretty damn good top 5 :)
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irice22
9x Platinum Member
listening to Kesha. Always.
Joined: October 2003
Posts: 9,164
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Post by irice22 on Jan 31, 2004 14:25:23 GMT -5
If thats the top 5, pretty damn good top 5 :) Good point! |
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Matt4319
Administrator
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 15,215
Staff
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Post by Matt4319 on Jan 31, 2004 14:33:22 GMT -5
There's really no point in projecting spin totals for a month from now. Approximate positions, yes, but there's so much that can change in one week, let alone four.
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JayBoozer
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 7,694
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Post by JayBoozer on Jan 31, 2004 14:42:00 GMT -5
There's really no point in projecting spin totals for a month from now. Approximate positions, yes, but there's so much that can change in one week, let alone four. These spin totals are based on current trends, and if you look at it this way, then it's easier to see where those approximate positions are. |
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j
4x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 4,975 
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Post by j on Jan 31, 2004 16:16:30 GMT -5
These spin totals are based on current trends, and if you look at it this way, then it's easier to see where those approximate positions are. I agree, but personally, I would've done it differently. I think you're a little too optimistic for Toxic and My Immortal and I would've projected a more steady spin gain for Linkin Park. |
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TheJakes
Platinum Member
Joined: October 2003
Posts: 1,398
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Post by TheJakes on Jan 31, 2004 18:50:09 GMT -5
Since "Toxic" passed "My immortal" there has been no sign that "My Immortal" has begun to close the gap, in fact the trend shows the gap increasing.
Spin Gap:
01/31 +361
01/30 +321
01/29 +345
01/28 +336
01/27 +296
So the gap right now seems to be holding steady in the +300 spin range.
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Post by af18c on Jan 31, 2004 21:52:27 GMT -5
"With You"
2/06 6950
2/13 7775
2/20 8050
2/27 8600
3/05 8800 -[peak spins]
"The Way You Move"
2/06 8650
2/13 8300
2/20 7975
2/27 7450
3/05 6975
"Toxic"
2/06 5350
2/13 6050
2/20 6900
2/27 7750
3/05 8100
"Numb"
2/06 6000
2/13 6450
2/20 6775
2/27 7050
3/05 7500
"My Immortal"
2/06 5575
2/13 6400
2/20 7350
2/27 8175
3/05 9050
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Post by ExActLy99 on Feb 1, 2004 10:03:51 GMT -5
I really can't imagine "My Immortal" being played over 9,000 times, I think that stations just really went crazy with "Hey Ya," I don't see "My Immortal" getting overplayed on a lot of stations.
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Post by RRMusicGuy on Feb 1, 2004 11:21:37 GMT -5
I really can't imagine "My Immortal" being played over 9,000 times, I think that stations just really went crazy with "Hey Ya," I don't see "My Immortal" getting overplayed on a lot of stations. I agree there is no way that my imortal can get that high with all the rythemic leaning stations. It's gains will also start to fall one they hit 5500 spins as most songs do. Also Jessica is going to start loosing spins (dramatically) once they start pushing the new song. I think the next number one's will have spin totals below 8000. |
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JayBoozer
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 7,694
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Post by JayBoozer on Feb 1, 2004 12:39:44 GMT -5
I really can't imagine "My Immortal" being played over 9,000 times, I think that stations just really went crazy with "Hey Ya," I don't see "My Immortal" getting overplayed on a lot of stations. I even agree  . But I don't think 8000 is unreachable. To have 9000 + spins the song needs to be undeniably catchy. Besides, some people think it's boring  . |
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j
4x Platinum Member
Joined: September 2003
Posts: 4,975
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Post by j on Feb 1, 2004 19:16:14 GMT -5
To have 9000 + spins the song needs to be undeniably catchy. Besides, some people think it's boring . A boring song reached 9000 spins last January, so don't lose hope for My Immortal yet.  |
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Post by RRMusicGuy on Feb 1, 2004 23:46:14 GMT -5
A boring song reached 9000 spins last January, so don't lose hope for My Immortal yet. There were more stations on the panel back then, and Christina had a wider appeal than Evan. (Well then, now most people hate her!) |
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. But I don't think 8000 is unreachable. To have 9000 + spins the song needs to be undeniably catchy. Besides, some people think it's boring 
.