Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Jul 19, 2004 18:06:43 GMT -5
Jojo will easily grab a 3rd week at #1 this week and could very easily spend another month at the top as there are absolutely no songs anywhere close to kicking her out. The closest bulleted song is Christina Milian, but she's actually down in spins from last night.
It looks like there will be no top 10 entries for a while. Los Lonely Boys could move up to #11 this week, but they only gained 4 spins on Usher from last night so who knows.
Alicia Keys should move up a lot this week, possibly to as high as #13.
Top 40 debuts this week should include Lil' Flip and Britney Spears
Top 50 debuts this week should include the Ying Yang Twins, Lasmus and Lloyd.
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No Brake$
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Post by No Brake$ on Jul 19, 2004 19:21:42 GMT -5
How long until Modest Mouse get in the Top 40? I say in two weeks, then it has a chance to maybe explode.
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j
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Post by j on Jul 20, 2004 0:00:33 GMT -5
What does it take for Usher to be booted off?
There are 7 other unbulleted songs below him, 6 of which are losing spins more rapidly.
The 7th highest bulleted song outside the Top 20 is Ryan Cabrera, and yeah, that'll hit the Top 20.
Thank goodness for Nelly, Houston, Lloyd Banks, Britney and whoever else has a good shot at entering the Top 20.
Conclusion: It looks like Usher will be #1 of the year. Hoobastank is 40,000 spins away and gaining only 2,500 per week on him. Even if they maintain that pace, it's going to take 4 months just to catch up.
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msanoja
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Post by msanoja on Jul 20, 2004 7:12:13 GMT -5
Conclusion: It looks like Usher will be #1 of the year. Hoobastank is 40,000 spins away and gaining only 2,500 per week on him. Even if they maintain that pace, it's going to take 4 months just to catch up. Can't say I'm surprised.
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Post by jaxxalude on Jul 20, 2004 8:02:50 GMT -5
Conclusion: It looks like Usher will be #1 of the year. Hoobastank is 40,000 spins away and gaining only 2,500 per week on him. Even if they maintain that pace, it's going to take 4 months just to catch up. For the second year running, it looks like the #1 song of the year at Pop radio will be in touch with the #1 song at Billboard. Conclusion: after years of blindness and holding on to a way-past-its-sell-date idea of what pop music should be, CHR/Pop radio is finally beginning to see what people really like. Hooray for progress and evolution!
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Jul 20, 2004 8:59:19 GMT -5
Conclusion: It looks like Usher will be #1 of the year. Hoobastank is 40,000 spins away and gaining only 2,500 per week on him. Even if they maintain that pace, it's going to take 4 months just to catch up. Just remember, there are four months to the end R&R's chart year. And all of the songs that are contenders for the #1 spot of the year were released at around the same time, and didn't get much airplay in January, so any spins they may have had in December won't mean much. Even if "With You" had the same number of spins in December that they did in January (which we all know wasn't the case), it wouldn't have what it takes to overtake "Yeah" (which is good, since I don't like that song) Anyway, even though Hoobastank will probably fall short, there's still a possibility that it could come out on top. Or maybe R&R could make an error in their calculations and erroneously list "This Love" as the top song of the year
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Jul 20, 2004 10:15:28 GMT -5
For the second year running, it looks like the #1 song of the year at Pop radio will be in touch with the #1 song at Billboard. "When I'm Gone" was #1 on Billboard last year?
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Post by jaxxalude on Jul 20, 2004 10:18:32 GMT -5
"When I'm Gone" was #1 on Billboard last year? S**t!!! :o I really thought "In Da Club" was the #1 song at CHR/Pop last year! :o Gotta check my archives really better... /me finds a hole to hide...
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Jul 20, 2004 10:20:20 GMT -5
That one finished at #3.
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Post by jaxxalude on Jul 20, 2004 10:24:11 GMT -5
What's funny is that, on Billboard's Year-End tally at Mainstream Top 40, BEP were #1, 50 Cent was #7 and 3DD closed the Top-10. It's strange, seeing that the chart runs don't differ too much from Billboard to Mediabase, and both are ordered through spin detections.
??? ??? ???
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Jul 20, 2004 10:28:14 GMT -5
S**t!!! :o I really thought "In Da Club" was the #1 song at CHR/Pop last year! :o Gotta check my archives really better... /me finds a hole to hide... Last year, the streak had ended rather than started. 2001 and 2002 saw the same year-end #1 on both the Hot 100 and CHR/Pop ("Hanging By A Moment" and "How You Remind Me", respectively). For 2003, "When I'm Gone" only managed #5 on the Hot 100 and topped CHR/Pop. Whether the two chart's #1s can coincide this year remains to be seen, but it looks really likely.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Jul 20, 2004 10:31:51 GMT -5
What's funny is that, on Billboard's Year-End tally at Mainstream Top 40, BEP were #1, 50 Cent was #7 and 3DD closed the Top-10. It's strange, seeing that the chart runs don't differ too much from Billboard to Mediabase, and both are ordered through spin detections. ??? ??? ??? The reason for the large discrepency is that R&R/Mediabase counts pre-chart (below 50) and recurrent play. Billboard/BDS does not. Billboard only counts the total play accrued while songs are in the top 40 (and current). Thus, continued recurrent play made a world of difference where 3DD was concerned. I'll note that Billboard's chart also has a different recurrent rule than R&R. They do a 26/20 rule (songs 26 weeks old -- i.e. six months -- and below #20 get removed).
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Hervard
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Post by Hervard on Jul 20, 2004 10:42:27 GMT -5
Billboard's chart also has a different recurrent rule than R&R. They do a 26/20 rule (songs 26 weeks old -- i.e. six months -- and below #20 get removed). IMO, that's how it should be at R&R (or at least 25 weeks, since that would be half a year according to R&R, seeing that they don't count the two-week holiday break) But that's cool; anything's better than 25/-3
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Dan G.
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Post by Dan G. on Jul 20, 2004 11:33:17 GMT -5
Avril Lavigne, Blink-182, and potentially 3 Doors Down go recurrent this week.
Lil' Flip and Britney Spears are guaranteed top 40 debuts, while either Kimberley Locke or Modest Mouse will squeeze in there as well. If 3 Doors Down is moved to recurrent, both songs will likely make it, which would mean the #40 song would probably have less than 900 spins.
--DanG
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Post by flarbygarby on Jul 21, 2004 10:31:57 GMT -5
'My Happy Ending' and 'Let's Get It Started' better get their bullets back up. Those songs are way too top ten worthy to lag behind.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Jul 21, 2004 10:57:53 GMT -5
'My Happy Ending' and 'Let's Get It Started' better get their bullets back up. Those songs are way too top ten worthy to lag behind. I agree!
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Jul 21, 2004 11:10:12 GMT -5
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iceman
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Post by iceman on Jul 21, 2004 14:38:24 GMT -5
What a shame "Echo" isn't doing better. I think it easily deserves top 10.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Jul 22, 2004 0:47:33 GMT -5
What a shame "Echo" isn't doing better. I think it easily deserves top 10. I definitely agree with this. It has #1 potential in fact.
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jmason
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Post by jmason on Jul 23, 2004 6:45:21 GMT -5
I'm still wondering how JoJo got #1 ??? Accidentally In Love picking up more spins Let's Get It Started I hopeing for a top 5. Ocean Avenue losing 700 Kelly's song seems to be going slowly right now, but I'm sure it will pick up soon. Could Meant To Live become the longest song on the chart? It has 23 weeks in so far. And unlike Hanging By A Moment I like this song. Dip It Low should get a #2 by the end of the week. Pieces Of Me has also increases in spins jumping over Turn Me On.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Jul 23, 2004 7:45:06 GMT -5
Could Meant To Live become the longest song on the chart? It has 23 weeks in so far. And unlike Hanging By A Moment I like this song. Actually, 7/30 will be MTL's 29th week on. To date, the longest reigning song on the chart under the 20/20 rule is Vertical Horizon's "Everything You Want" (37 weeks, I think it was). Unless the song suddenly starts sinking like a stone, Switchfoot stand a pretty good chance beating that record.
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Post by jaxxalude on Jul 23, 2004 7:49:34 GMT -5
What a shame "Echo" isn't doing better. I think it easily deserves top 10. What's a shame is that band even getting a record deal, to begin with!
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Libra
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Post by Libra on Jul 23, 2004 8:01:03 GMT -5
To date, the longest reigning song on the chart under the 20/20 rule is Vertical Horizon's "Everything You Want" (37 weeks, I think it was). What?? How many weeks did Lifehouse get?
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j
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Post by j on Jul 23, 2004 9:20:31 GMT -5
Actually, 7/30 will be MTL's 29th week on. To date, the longest reigning song on the chart under the 20/20 rule is Vertical Horizon's "Everything You Want" (37 weeks, I think it was). Unless the song suddenly starts sinking like a stone, Switchfoot stand a pretty good chance beating that record. I disagree. By my estiamtes, they only have to lose about 2500 spins before they get booted off, and they still have 9 more weeks to go to beat that record. So all they need to lose is 300 spins a week - which I wouldn't call sinking like a stone - and they wouldn't hit Week #38.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Jul 23, 2004 9:51:46 GMT -5
What?? How many weeks did Lifehouse get? 36
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Jul 23, 2004 9:53:15 GMT -5
"Meant to Live" is up 29 spins since Sunday night. They could very well get their bullet back.
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Jul 23, 2004 9:59:41 GMT -5
Yep! Though, actually, Lifehouse should have tied with Vertical Horizon. But they debuted a week late because Ruff Endz were accidentally left on for a 21st week (not that it hurt LH any).
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Ragin
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Post by Ragin on Jul 23, 2004 13:31:39 GMT -5
What's a shame is that band even getting a record deal, to begin with! No way. That album is solid. They clearly have some skills. The shame is all those no-talent people getting big contracts when no one has even heard of names like Wolf Marshall.
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irice22
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Post by irice22 on Jul 25, 2004 0:19:19 GMT -5
How come the Jump section on Mediabase doesn't match the actual chart? Maybe it will be cleared up tomorrow.
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Jul 25, 2004 0:20:53 GMT -5
How come the Jump section on Mediabase doesn't match the actual chart? Maybe it will be cleared up tomorrow. It looks right to me...
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