Future Predictions for CHR Pop

[95-7 Ben FM]

"Broken" #20
"Breaking the Habit" #10
"Light In Your Eyes" #32
"Float On" #28
"Wake Up (Make A Move)" Will Not Chart
"Rollover DJ" #2
"Lean Back" #5
"Love Song" (will return and peak at) #30
"Dare You To Move" #15 (with a quicker fall than MTL)
"Ordinary" #27
"Welcome Back" #25
"Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me)" #36
"Vindicated" #41 (with a bullet)

[singingsparrow]

Seether f/Amy Lee: "Broken": #19 (This single is getting a bit stale. "The Punisher" is long finished and its run at Alternative is through. Expect most likely a run like "So Far Away", a single that could have done better had it done been released so late.)

Linkin Park: Breaking The Habit: #5 (Linkin Park sure has a way of giving a dramatic closure to promoting albums. First "In The End" took the world by storm as the last official single from "Hybrid Theory", now "Breaking the Habit" can likely do the same. The main appeal to this track is the overall atmosphere from previous LP haters to this track. Many find this to be the first Linkin Park single they're actually rooting for 'like myself'. And Linkin Park will benefit very much here!)

Sheryl Crow: Light In Your Eyes: #29 (Sheryl Crow continues to deliver hit after hit in her long and healthy career. This is no exception. Though I don't see this quite peaking as high as her biggest hits, with this being a Greatest Hits album and its promotion winding down, another Top 30 appearance is incredibly honorable. I predict a run like Liz Phair's "Extraordinary".

Modest Mouse: Float On: #30 (This really does deserve to go Top 10. However, many of us are aware how Modest Mouse used to be the heroes of the underground music scene, and their weirdness remains genuine on their sophomore major label release. "Float On", despite being their most simplistic song yet, is STILL too good and unique for mainstream. With strong album sales and cross-format marketing, this should make the Top 30, but I think most will think it's too good for Pop and will be limited in its peak therefore.

Lostprophets: "Wake Up (Make A Move)": Will Not Chart (Let's face it, if "Last Train Home" couldn't chart, I don't see this doing any differently.

Jet: Rollover D.J: #18 (If released soon) (I'm really not sure what Jet's game plan is here. I thought "Cold Hard Bitch" was going to be treated seriously as a Pop single, but it won't happen. "Rollover D.J" sounds like a hit, but if "Look What You've Done" will be the fourth single, it'll just be a conflict for their singles. If released as soon as possible, "Rollover D.J" will chart well here, but they should take "Look What You've Done" especially seriously, which I cas ee that being a Top 10 hit!

Terror Squad/Fat Joe/Remy: Lean Back: #6 (At first I was quite unsure and skeptical about this track, criticizing it for being way too Urban for CHR/Pop. But seeing how its been burning across both Urban and CHR/Rhythmic like brushfire, it's almost inevitable this will be a smash. As much as I still think it's quite an Urban single for CHR/Pop to play, it shouldn't really matter or affect its utmost potential as long as the buzz is surrounding them.

311: Love Song: #25 (I am taking the more optimistic viewpoint on this single. This can go two ways. Either it will be perhaps the phoenix hit of 2004 and outpeak its previous position by five times as many spins or more, or it will just wobble around like "Away From The Sun" did, despite its impressive Hot AC run, where 311 is currently thriving also.

Switchfoot: Dare You To Move: #9 (At any rate I think this will peak about four or five positions lower than "Meant To Live" no matter what. Nevertheless, it DOES sound like a perfect promotional song for the Olympic Games and a ballad that many will be feeling I believe, and give Switchfoot their second Top 10 hit! And there's so much to celebrate there!)

Train: Ordinary: (Will Not Chart) (I'm pessimistic about this one. It just sounds too original even for Train and quite unique for CHR/Pop. Of course, "Spider Man 2" being a hit alone can bolster the track anyway, but I actually feel "Vindicated" will overshadow it.

Mase: Welcome Back: #38 (I don't know, they still haven't quite established themselves yet here. I think they'll be lost in the crowd.)

Joss Stone: Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me): (Will Not Chart) (Once again, I don't see this particular single taking off for Joss Stone. However, I do see great things for her ahead on her follow-up releases, and soon she has huge potential to be the next Bonnie Raitt or Susan Tedeschi. She's young and has a colorfu, bright future ahead of her.)

Dashboard Confessional: Vindicated: #27 (Though they are not an established artist outside of Alternative, this has had a strong performance on Alternative superior to many recent singles, not to mention getting a lot of video exposure from MTV, etc. They should find their way onto the chart like Yellowcard have recently and get some fair play in there before disappearing.)

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[Mega248]

"Broken"- #20, and I agree with what Noah Eaton said.

"Breaking the Habit"- #5. It's getting enough early action and it's definitely pop friendly. The only thing that would stop it from being a hit is the large amount of recurrent play their other two pop hits are contiuing to get.

"Light In Your Eyes"- Is there a pop adds date for this yet? If yes, than it will likely peak around #30. If not, then it won't chart.

"Float On"- #23. It's just too original sounding to get much higher than that.

"Wake Up (Make A Move)"- I'd love to see this at least do something, but if "Last Train Home" could only make it to new and active, this won't do any better, especially since "LTH" was a #1 hit on alternative and this just creeped into the top 20 a day or two ago.

"Rollover DJ"- haven't heard

"Lean Back"- haven't heard

"Love Song"- #35. I'd love to see this set a new peak. As long as it continues to gain at Hot AC, it will probably do the same at pop.

"Dare You To Move"- #10. It will probably have a similar run on the pop chart to the one it had on the alternative chart, maybe with a slightly faster rise.

"Ordinary"- #24. A similar peak to that of "Calling All Angels", but its rise and fall will be considerably faster.

"Welcome Back"- #43. I think they're waiting a bit too long to release this to pop.

"Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me)" #36

"Vindicated"- #27. It's already getting some good spins before going for adds and it's now top 5 on alternative. I don't see any reason why it would do worse than "Hands Down".

[jaxxalude]

Seether f/ Amy Lee "Broken" - Yeah, around #20. If this was released earlier at Pop, maybe it would do better

Linkin Park "Breaking the Habit" - Not sure about this one. This currently has a 181+ bullet at #57. At least Top 25. More than that will be a bonus.

Sheryl Crow "Light In Your Eyes" - #85, 10+, no add date... N&A will be a blessing!

Modest Mouse "Float On" - I think this will go at least top 20. It may be weird at first, but its sheer pop side is so evident, everyone will start liking it. Top 20 at least.

Lostprophets "Wake Up (Make A Move)" - Forget it. "Last Train Home" bombed, this one will bomb too.

Jet "Rollover DJ" - "Cold Hard Bitch" flopped, this one won't go far too. If they release "Look What You've Done", then they may have a multi-format hit at hands.

Terror Squad "Lean Back" - Are there any doubts that this one will be HUGE?! Top 3 easy.

311 "Love Song" - It could pull some kind of ressurection.

Switchfoot "Dare You To Move" - I actually think this one will be another slow burner for Switchfoot. Top 10 at least.

Train "Ordinary" - I think this one will be the dark horse. Top 5.

Mase "Welcome Back" - It's already losing ground at Urban and Rhythmic. Talk about a fast burner!...

Joss Stone "Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me)" - Won't chart. Too Triple A.

Dashboard Confessional "Vindicated" - Another Top 5 smash in the making.

[Mega248]

jaxxalude said:

\Jet "Rollover DJ" - "Cold Hard Bitch" flopped, this one won't go far too. If they release "Look What You've Done", then they may have a multi-format hit at hands.

"Cold Hard Bitch" didn't go for adds. It did have an adds date at one time, but it was pulled.

[Deleted]

Singing Sparrow, Mase is a rapper, not a group.

[rowellfarm490]

Seether f/ Amy Lee - Broken #23
Linkin Park - Breaking The Habit #1
Sheryl Crow - Light In Your Eyes #38
Modest Mouse - Float On #16
Lostprophets - Wake Up (Make A Move) WNC
Jet - Rollover D.J. #14
Terror Squad - Lean Back #9
311 - Love Song #35
Switchfoot - Dare You To Move #12
Train - Ordinary #30
Mase - Welcome Back #50
Joss Stone - Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me) WNC
Dashboard Confessional - Vindicated #18

[JCMF3]

I think that most of those predictions are WAY too optimistic.  Let's face it - pop music won't touch some of those songs for long and certainly not across the panel, especially the Hot AC leaning songs.

I'll make top 50 predictions only, so WNC means will not peak in the top 50.

Broken - #24 (if they're lucky..., but I could see this one missing the top 30 altogether)
Breaking The Habit - #11
Light In Your Eyes - WNC
Float On - #27
Wake Up (Make A Move) - I haven't heard it, but I will make an educated guess it WNC.
Rollover DJ - I have not heard this one yet and I am not as confident to make a prediction with this band and this song.
Lean Back - Have not heard this one in its entirety, but it will either peak at #4 or #23.  It seems like a song that polarized in appeal.
Love Song - Has already peaked in the top 50 and will not re-enter.
Dare You To Move - #6
Ordinary - WNC
Welcome Back - WNC
Super Duper Love (Are You Diggin' On Me) - WNC
Vindicated - WNC

[Ragin]

Breaking the Habit would have been huge had it not been for Headstrong.

I'm going to say top10, but not #1.

Of course on the other hand, maybe Headstrong helped pave the way for it too.

I like the song quite a bit.

[jaxxalude]

Some changes at my own predictions.

jaxxalude said:

Seether f/ Amy Lee "Broken" - Yeah, around #20. If this was released earlier at Pop, maybe it would do better

I think I might change it to Top 25, at best.

jaxxalude said:

Linkin Park "Breaking the Habit" - Not sure about this one. This currently has a 181+ bullet at #57. At least Top 25. More than that will be a bonus.

This is actually showing more legs now. Top 15 may be a sure shot, Top 10 is possible.

jaxxalude said:

311 "Love Song" - It could pull some kind of ressurection.

Maybe Top 30, then drop fast.

jaxxalude said:

Mase "Welcome Back" - It's already losing ground at Urban and Rhythmic. Talk about a fast burner!...

Top 50, and I'm being optimistic. This had to be released while Urban and Rhythmic were still holding on to it. Since it burned very fast at both, there's no great use for it now.

[irice22]

"Broken" #16
"Breaking the Habit" #15
"Light In Your Eyes" WNC
"Float On" #34
"Wake Up (Make A Move)" WNC
"Rollover DJ" NFE
"Lean Back" #10
"Love Song" #31
"Dare You To Move" #17
"Ordinary" WNC
"Welcome Back" WNC
"Super Duper Love (Are You Digging On Me)" WNC
"Vindicated" #45