j
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Post by j on Aug 2, 2004 6:53:42 GMT -5
As far as I can tell, there were no further updates after the 5pm one. The next one was at 5am.
Let's see what could happen at the edge of the Top 20.
a) Houston & Finger Eleven boot off Maroon5 & Usher b) Houston & Finger Eleven boot off Maroon5 & Britney Spears c) Houston boots off Maroon5
It's going to be close, but I'm going with (a).
Britney Spears may possibly replace herself in the Top 20, but "Everytime" is collapsing heavily, something it should have done... 10 weeks ago.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Aug 2, 2004 7:33:08 GMT -5
LOL... for the first time ever, "Away From The Sun" is getting more spins than "Here Without You".
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jmason
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Post by jmason on Aug 2, 2004 16:02:56 GMT -5
Both Yeah And This Love have spent 27 weeks on the chart. This Love may make 29 and Yeah could make 31 or 32. With Burn losing more spins and Confessions Part 2's gains slowing down.
Naughty Girl and I Don't Wanna Know should go recurrent this week.
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Aug 2, 2004 16:53:27 GMT -5
Naughty Girl and I Don't Wanna Know should go recurrent this week. Beyonce will, but I think Mario Winans still has one more week to go (along with Yellowcard).
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 2, 2004 20:05:30 GMT -5
It looks like i was right when i predicted Jojo might regain her bullet, because that looks to be the case this week. Ha, and people here were already ready to call Ashlee Simpson's song a #1 hit! I hope Jojo keeps it from her!
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Aug 2, 2004 21:22:23 GMT -5
It looks like i was right when i predicted Jojo might regain her bullet, because that looks to be the case this week. Ha, and people here were already ready to call Ashlee Simpson's song a #1 hit! I hope Jojo keeps it from her! Just for the hell of it, who do you think will eventually knock JoJo out of #1? (Hey, if you're right, you can crow on about that too...)
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 2, 2004 21:32:04 GMT -5
That question i can't answer. But for some reason i just have this feeling that it won't be Ashlee. I kind of hope i am wrong because i like that song, but then again i kind of hope i am right because, well i want to be right! I honestly don't know who will knock Jojo out of #1. Obviously Ashlee is the clear cut choice, but i don't know...and there's no one else besides her screaming "#1" either. BTW, how many weeks has Jojo been #1 for so far?
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mst3k
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Post by mst3k on Aug 2, 2004 21:36:38 GMT -5
The August 6th chart is her fourth week at #1.
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 2, 2004 21:49:18 GMT -5
wait so she already spent 4 weeks at #1 or she's going to be at 4 weeks by the end of this week?
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Aug 2, 2004 21:54:26 GMT -5
wait so she already spent 4 weeks at #1 or she's going to be at 4 weeks by the end of this week?
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 2, 2004 22:03:52 GMT -5
wow so she will most likely have at least 6 weeks at #1! That's pretty good! Isn't that pretty rare since "The Reason" just spent 8 weeks at #1? When was the last time two songs had 6 + weeks at #1 in a row? I'm thinking it's been a while.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Aug 3, 2004 6:31:15 GMT -5
wow so she will most likely have at least 6 weeks at #1! That's pretty good! Isn't that pretty rare since "The Reason" just spent 8 weeks at #1? When was the last time two songs had 6 + weeks at #1 in a row? I'm thinking it's been a while. That's actually an interesting question. I checked through the archives and found that it happened in 1998 when Aerosmith's "I Don't Wanna Miss A Thing" spent 8 weeks @ #1, followed by Barenaked Ladies' "One Week" which spent 6 weeks @ #1. It also almost happened earlier that same year when Celine Dion's "My Heart Will Go On" spent 9 weeks @ #1 and Nathalie Imbruglia's "Torn" spent 11 weeks @ #1, but in between Savage Garden's "Truly Madly Deeply" spent 1 week @ #1.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Aug 3, 2004 6:34:19 GMT -5
It looks like i was right when i predicted Jojo might regain her bullet, because that looks to be the case this week. Ha, and people here were already ready to call Ashlee Simpson's song a #1 hit! I hope Jojo keeps it from her! *sigh* Last week, it took until Friday night or Saturday for Jojo to lose her bullet. At this time last week, she was gaining +250-300 and look what happened. She went completely south. As of this morning, her losses are back to -43 and I expect that to grow with time. However, I do agree it may take Ashlee Simpson another week to grab the #1 spot. But by the end of this week, Ashlee should be ~1000 spins from the top spot, making it actually attainable next week if she can maintain decent spin gains and then Jojo accelerates her losses.
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j
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Post by j on Aug 3, 2004 8:13:28 GMT -5
Consecutive long-running #1s are quite common if you consider 5 weeks to be "long-running".
Complicated [8] followed by Dilemma [5] (2002) Baby One More Time [5] followed by Every Morning [7] (1999) Mambo No. 5 [5] followed by Smooth [7] & I Knew I Loved You [5] (1999-2000) Kryptonite [5] followed by With Arms Wide Open [5] followed by Independent Women [7] (2000-2001) Hit Em Up Style [5] followed by Fallin [5] (2001)
Either way, I don't see the big deal.
Also, it should take Ashlee 2-4 weeks to get to #1. Most likely (60% chance) 3 weeks.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Aug 3, 2004 8:17:08 GMT -5
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Matt4319
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Post by Matt4319 on Aug 3, 2004 8:23:20 GMT -5
We believe for now that the "h1r" chart, which has been the official CHR/Pop chart since we discovered these Mediabase charts, is still the 'pop' chart. But last week, this page changed its bookmarks from the (h1)r to (h1)m. We won't know if R&R also switches to the h1m chart until Wednesday, but for now just assume that the h1r chart is still the official one.
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jimmy74747
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Post by jimmy74747 on Aug 3, 2004 8:23:24 GMT -5
I believe the first one (Mainstream Hits) "h1m" is the Mediabase chart, while the second one (CHR/Pop) "h1r" is the R&R chart. At least that was the explanation given in the country forum.
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 3, 2004 8:41:24 GMT -5
I like the first link better! JoJo has a whopping 9100 spins!
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irice22
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listening to Kesha. Always.
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Post by irice22 on Aug 3, 2004 11:32:54 GMT -5
Avril's bullet is dropping. It needs to debut, now!
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Dan G.
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Post by Dan G. on Aug 3, 2004 12:44:36 GMT -5
I wonder which chart will define recurrents. If a song that has spent more than 20 weeks on the chart falls below the top 20 on the CHR/Pop chart but not on the Mainstream Hit chart (or vice versa), will it be moved to recurrent on one but not the other? Or will they only base recurrents on one of the two charts? This could throw things off...
It seems that Mediabase has classified every CHR/Pop station as Mainstream Hit, which is why no individual station spins are displayed when clicking on a song on the CHR/Pop chart.
--DanG
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Post by chebingeo on Aug 3, 2004 19:47:18 GMT -5
Has an artist ever had 3 unbulleted songs on the chart at the same time? Looks like Usher may be the first!
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j
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Post by j on Aug 3, 2004 19:49:23 GMT -5
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Dan G.
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Post by Dan G. on Aug 3, 2004 20:06:43 GMT -5
Ohhh I get it now. Format leaders work for the mainstream panel. So just change the r to m. Am I the last one to realize this? Yep.
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j
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Post by j on Aug 3, 2004 20:16:57 GMT -5
Has an artist ever had 3 unbulleted songs on the chart at the same time? Looks like Usher may be the first! If Confessions does lose its bullet, I give him 6 weeks at most before Yeah! has more weekly spins than either of the later 2 singles. In 3 weeks, Burn will have less spins than Yeah!. Speaking of bullets, looks like Los Lonely Boys' days of having "inappropriate" bullets are over. They moved up 5 without a bullet and then moved down 3 with one.
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 4, 2004 9:15:42 GMT -5
Well i am rulling out Avril from #1 now. It doesn't look like she's as big of a radio force as she was on her first album. "My Happy Ending" should still make the top ten though.
The real big surprise is Alicia Keys. When was "If I Aint Got You" released? Back in February right? I can't believe this song still has a bullet and is now a top ten hit on pop radio.
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Post by chebingeo on Aug 4, 2004 10:48:38 GMT -5
Well i am rulling out Avril from #1 now. It doesn't look like she's as big of a radio force as she was on her first album. "My Happy Ending" should still make the top ten though. The real big surprise is Alicia Keys. When was "If I Aint Got You" released? Back in February right? I can't believe this song still has a bullet and is now a top ten hit on pop radio. The only reason why it's still bulleted is because of the "Flava of the Month Remix." Without it, it'd probably be out of the top 40 now.
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Post by Lohanfan on Aug 4, 2004 10:53:04 GMT -5
Still, now Alicia has 3 top ten hits! That's pretty good for an Urban artist.
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jmason
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Post by jmason on Aug 4, 2004 13:39:02 GMT -5
Broken according to the new R&R chart was played 565 times on 12 stations :o That song is going to need some adds soon or it will fall out of New & Active, but right now it is gaining 98 spins on ? stations.
Anychance Fly will do anything? I'm thinking flop, but who knows.
Is Alanis going to release another song to POP? it may help her album sells!
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Aug 4, 2004 15:25:12 GMT -5
Broken according to the new R&R chart was played 565 times on 12 stations :o That song is going to need some adds soon or it will fall out of New & Active, but right now it is gaining 98 spins on ? stations. Whoa, it just made N&A then because 12 is the absolute minimum number of stations to be considered (since there are 120 stations on the panel). I didn't realize that it was so low in total stations... And here's something that shocked me - WKGS added Clay Aiken's I Will Carry You! :o :o Is there some remix with Usher or 50 Cent or something?
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Aug 4, 2004 15:26:39 GMT -5
Well i am rulling out Avril from #1 now. It doesn't look like she's as big of a radio force as she was on her first album. "My Happy Ending" should still make the top ten though. I don't think Avril's chances at #1 are over, but they are not 100% either. She looked to be done in the 20s a couple of weeks back but has made nice headway and may even pass Maroon 5 this week. Unfortunately, I think recurrent airplay from Don't Tell Me is still hurting her, as weird as that sounds.
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