Is Muse's next single a surefire #1?

[oscillations.]

My theory on this reflects Muse's slow-burning ascent to their current status as one of Alternative's core artists. In fact, they are one of the top played artists of the year on the format (and the #1 UK band) and have enjoyed a streak of 3 Top 10 (and one near #1) hits for the BH&R era. Based on their continuous upward mobility, I'm convinced that their next single for their new album will likely hit #1 quite easily, much the way "Seven Nation Army" did several years ago after the White Stripes had caught everyone's attention and proved to be more than a flash in the pan. I think the format really wants to play exciting artists, but as the entire alternative sphere is in flux, there is no one real artist to champion or for radio programmers to rally around (except Foo Fighters, who by now are nearly vintage). I think Muse can be that "weird but accessible" band that everyone will want to hear in 2008, provided they supply us with material on par with what they have demonstrated so far. Worst case scenario: a "Little Sister" like phenomenon where hype drives the single straight to/near the top and then it ends up burning out early. (Although LS is still a popular recurrent). I can't see them missing the upper echelons of the chart entirely and doubt Alternative will bail out on Muse any time soon. I think we'll see this big band get huge in 2008.

[pen]

My prediction: Disturbed #1, Muse #2, just to piss you off.

[banet2001]

Slow accent to stardom, at least for alternative rock bands, is the best to assure longevity. Quite often, bands that follow current radio trends have a quick assent to the top, only to find their career as chart toppers and arena main eventers over with once that radio trend dies.

Bands that have slow assents to the top generally are not all that radio friendly and have slowly built a following based on relentless touring and a resume of quality material. Once acts like that break through, the mainstream comes to them as opposed to trend following bands that follow the current radio trends. Bands that create their own sound and style last longer than copies of current trends.

Bands like U2, The Cure, DePeche Mode, REM, Radiohead etc. did not start out as arena acts and had to build up their legitimacy over several years and several albums. They all have viable careers as arena acts today and for the foreseeable future. I think Muse is on a similar path, although I am not sure they will have the peaks as the aforementioned bands, and are on their way to establishing themselves as a long term act in the US.

As far as getting to number one, who knows. They may have a big hit single, only to be blocked by the typical huge alternative hit single of the moment (which quite often exceeds 10 weeks at number one) or maybe it will be merely a top ten alternative hit. I can certainly see them building on the momentum they have set for themselves in Black Holes and Revelations.

[Walking Contradiction]

I think it's very plausible if they release something that stands out and grabs your attention without being too "out there". Knowing Muse, that shouldn't be too much to ask for. I'm not getting my hopes up TOO high though.

[souldrift]

Dec 27, 2007 12:18:04 GMT -5 oscillations. said:

My theory on this reflects Muse's slow-burning ascent to their current status as one of Alternative's core artists. In fact, they are one of the top played artists of the year on the format (and the #1 UK band) and have enjoyed a streak of 3 Top 10 (and one near #1) hits for the BH&R era. Based on their continuous upward mobility, I'm convinced that their next single for their new album will likely hit #1 quite easily, much the way "Seven Nation Army" did several years ago after the White Stripes had caught everyone's attention and proved to be more than a flash in the pan. I think the format really wants to play exciting artists, but as the entire alternative sphere is in flux, there is no one real artist to champion or for radio programmers to rally around (except Foo Fighters, who by now are nearly vintage). I think Muse can be that "weird but accessible" band that everyone will want to hear in 2008, provided they supply us with material on par with what they have demonstrated so far. Worst case scenario: a "Little Sister" like phenomenon where hype drives the single straight to/near the top and then it ends up burning out early. (Although LS is still a popular recurrent). I can't see them missing the upper echelons of the chart entirely and doubt Alternative will bail out on Muse any time soon. I think we'll see this big band get huge in 2008.

They got onto Rock radio with a couple of pop-oriented tracks in 2007 (Starlight and Supermassive) that should have crossed over to Pop/CHR. There's apparently a live album coming out soon, from the Wembley shows--and I think it'd be a really smart move to release a single from the Origin material that wasn't released at all in the States in 2001 when the band built its audience in Europe. Maybe "Feeling Good," a proven cover song that might point listeners back to that catalog title.

They've just stopped the Tour for Revelations, so their next studio record probably won't come out til 2009. Don't drop the ball now, Warner! The next studio record itself may include more electronica, per rumors, and maybe some "classical" influence -- we'll see, but hopefully it's something with a strong rhythm section that will be radio friendly and still as inventive as their other material is. GO MUSE!!

[microcuts]

They will still be playing some shows in 2008 - a couple in South Africa in March and I'm told by someone who works for Atlantic (under Muse's label Warner Bros.) that they will be playing at the Coachella festival at the end of April. Regardless, it's gonna be a bit of a wait for the next album.

Hopefully they will get their first #1 in America next time; however, believe it or not, they've never had a #1 in the UK, either. Supermassive Black Hole was the band's highest charting song in the UK, peaking at #4 on the Top 40.

[crash46]

No way. The only acts whose future singles can be placed at #1 airplay by deaf ears are Linkin Park, The Foo Fighters, and The Red Hot Chili Peppers. Muse is not anywhere near in that type of no-brainer league yet.

The White Stripes aren't either. They didn't hit number one merely through perseverance. They did it through undeniable hooks that will drive them to airplay on classic rock stations perpetually. If Alternative didn't get them, somebody else would have.

That's the type of path required for Muse to score a #1 US hit. Not totally out of the realm of possibility. But I think, not really likely either.

[jvandyck87]

Dec 28, 2007 2:28:51 GMT -5 crash46 said:

No way. The only acts whose future singles can be placed at #1 airplay by deaf ears are Linkin Park, The Foo Fighters, and The Red Hot Chili Peppers.

I would also add Nine Inch Nails to that list. "Survivalism" was nowhere near popular enough to get to #1 on its own. Though given the semi-floppage at radio of Year Zero (compared to With Teeth anyway), they may have just taken themselves out of the category of #1 airplay by deaf ears. My bet also would be that after "American Idiot," Green Day is now essentially an automatic #1 at alternative as well, at least for their next album.

[Nicholas2.0]

Dec 27, 2007 12:49:00 GMT -5 pen said:

My prediction: Disturbed #1, Muse #2, just to piss you off.

Nice.

The fact that it was the very first reply makes it even better.

[souldrift]

Dec 28, 2007 2:28:51 GMT -5 crash46 said:

No way. The only acts whose future singles can be placed at #1 airplay by deaf ears are Linkin Park, The Foo Fighters, and The Red Hot Chili Peppers. Muse is not anywhere near in that type of no-brainer league yet.

I'd like to think you're wrong, but that conclusion is one reason I dont' listen to much alternative radio anymore. If they'd play more Muse (and others) I might listen more.

Go Muse!

[oscillations.]

Dec 28, 2007 3:42:44 GMT -5 Nicholas2.0 said:

Dec 27, 2007 12:49:00 GMT -5 pen said:

My prediction: Disturbed #1, Muse #2, just to piss you off.

Nice.

The fact that it was the very first reply makes it even better.

Yeah, I had my little laugh over it, too. "Sadly", Disturbed have more to worry about in terms of their longterm success than Muse do, so...let the dice roll as they may.

[jvandyck87]

Dec 29, 2007 3:45:02 GMT -5 oscillations. said:

Yeah, I had my little laugh over it, too. "Sadly", Disturbed have more to worry about in terms of their longterm success than Muse do, so...let the dice roll as they may.

While Disturbed didn't perform so tremendously at alternative with "Ten Thousand Fists," the album spawned 5 top 10 singles at Active Rock, including a #1 which happened 4 singles in with "Land Of Confusion" so I'd say they're still doing quite well. And that's more #1's than Muse has. I like Muse, but if you think Disturbed is any trouble with longevity, I think they're doing just fine. Alt-metal may be dying out, but the staple bands of the genre such as Chevelle, Sevendust, Korn, Deftones, and of course Disturbed are gonna be around for awhile longer. Also Disturbed's first charting single was 4 years before Muse's, at the beginning of this decade, so I'd say Disturbed has already had some decent long-term success that Muse will likely and should deservedly have.

[crash46]

Speaking of bands with surefire #1's on deaf ears, Disturbed is one of them at Active Rock, like it or not.

[pen]

Dec 29, 2007 3:45:02 GMT -5 oscillations. said:

Dec 28, 2007 3:42:44 GMT -5 Nicholas2.0 said:

Nice.

The fact that it was the very first reply makes it even better.

Yeah, I had my little laugh over it, too. "Sadly", Disturbed have more to worry about in terms of their longterm success than Muse do, so...let the dice roll as they may.

You know, I was just kidding, but Disturbed is a hell of a lot more successful right now than Muse, although their alternative airplay is not currently reflecting that, which leads me to two things everybody should already know: alternative is not the only important rock format out there, and radio airplay is not nearly as significantly important to sales and popularity as it once was.

[oscillations.]

How is Disturbed more successful than Muse?!

[jvandyck87]

well they are in America...at least according to wikipedia.

Ten Thousand Fists - Debuted at #1, 2X Platinum, 5 top 10 singles on active rock including a #1, and all 5 broke the top 40 at alternative


Black Holes & Revelations - hasn't gone gold yet, 3 top 10 singles at alt, none breaking top 40 at active rock

Maybe Muse makes up some of the ground based on their reputation as a live band, but at least in America, you have to give Disturbed the edge in that they've been a force on the rock charts for 7 years, and their recent stuff has outsold the recent Muse stuff here in the U.S.

Internationally, Oscillations, you probably could make a pretty good case for your boys being the more popular band at the moment of the two.

[oscillations.]

Yeah, well I tend to think on an international scope. In addition, in airplay terms, I was speaking specifically of the Alternative panel, which is the only one Muse can really rack up meaningful airplay (maybe Top 40 one day...ha!). I also think Muse are upwardly mobile in their plight for US fame & Disturbed, meanwhile, are on a downward trajectory. I'll admit I haven't really followed their airplay rankings or sales in recent years, but I'm positive their popularity has twindled considerably in the past 5 years or so.

[jvandyck87]

2 million vs. 300,000...and as Penance has said a zilliion times, alternative isn't the only rock format that matters when considering how popular a band is. If you're contesting as to who has a better chance at a #1 at alternative on their next album, then I'll give it to you that Muse does easily. But overall rock airplay is gonna go to Disturbed, and sales ought to be a close call.

[pen]

Dec 30, 2007 1:42:22 GMT -5 oscillations. said:

Yeah, well I tend to think on an international scope.

Fine. Internationally, Disturbed is more (or at least just as) successful than Muse. Unless your only definition of "international" is the UK.

I'll admit I haven't really followed their airplay rankings or sales in recent years

Well that's blindingly obvious. If you haven't even kept track of their data, then how can you make any commentary on their popularity? That's like saying that a band loses fans every time I don't listen to them. I bet you'd like that, wouldn't you.

[pen]

Consequently, my plan backfired. Now I'm the one who's pissed off.

[Nicholas2.0]

Dec 29, 2007 4:23:03 GMT -5 jvandyck87 said:

Also Disturbed's first charting single was 4 years before Muse's, at the beginning of this decade, so I'd say Disturbed has already had some decent long-term success that Muse will likely and should deservedly have.

To correct you: Muse peaked at #38 and spent 9 weeks on R&R's Alternative chart in the fall of 1999 with "Muscle Museum" from their debut album, Showbiz, almost 8 months before Disturbed's "Stupify" debuted.

[ClevelandRox]

Muse > Disturbed.

I really think it's going to count on the quality of the first single though. And the timing. If they wait a year it's going to be too late to ride on their hot streak.

[oscillations.]

Dec 30, 2007 3:25:15 GMT -5 pen said:

Consequently, my plan backfired. Now I'm the one who's pissed off.

Seriously?

[pen]

Dec 31, 2007 14:24:54 GMT -5 oscillations. said:

Dec 30, 2007 3:25:15 GMT -5 pen said:

Consequently, my plan backfired. Now I'm the one who's pissed off.

Seriously?

Well, no, not really. It just sounded like the funniest thing to say.

[oscillations.]

I laughed.

[souldrift]

Dec 31, 2007 13:40:32 GMT -5 ClevelandRox said:

Muse > Disturbed.

I really think it's going to count on the quality of the first single though. And the timing. If they wait a year it's going to be too late to ride on their hot streak.

Agreed--and that's why i'm thinking Warner needs to think about a live single or something from the newly released vault title (Origin) to keep the streak alive. They JUST wrapped up the 18 month tour for the last studio album, so I can't see a new one coming out til next year.

[pen]

I'm torn between wanting that song to never be a single to spite you or wanting it to be a single just so you'd stop talking about it.

[Nicholas2.0]

Jan 4, 2008 23:09:12 GMT -5 pen said:

I'm torn between wanting that song to never be a single to spite you or wanting it to be a single just so you'd stop talking about it.

I'd go for spite, personally.

[(Artie Ziff)]

I would add U2 to a pretty-much-guaranteed #1 Modern hit for a lead single. Muse will probably never reach the top if they couldn't do it on their last two albums.

[oscillations.]

I don't think that's true...their last 2 albums are what propelled them to their current status in the US. They were virtually unknown here until 2004, so really, Absolution + BH&R have done nothing but build momentum. BH&R was a bigger album than Absolution in terms of airplay, singles impact, band profile/public awareness, and immense tour success. I think their next album can be even bigger as long as they don't wait forever to release it.
Only time will tell....