Is CHR/Pop chart in jeopardy as best pop chart?

[bks]

KikiMets said:

I know that radio stations use callout research to gauge listener reaction to songs. Would I be correct in assuming that this research consists of calling a panel of listeners, playing short clips of songs on the station's playlist, and asking the listeners to rate the songs and whether they are familiar with (or tired of) them?

Yes, that's basically how they do it...but just like any other measure of popularity there are flaws...for instance, who are you likely to get to listen to a song on the phone during the day?  Is that really your Top 40 listener...that's why sales, requests, and any other tool radio can use to gauge listener reaction is important...it's getting to the point now where they can tell when people switch stations via monitoring...and even that can be dangerous...one of the songs that made the most people switch stations initially was "Hey Ya" by Outkast...which later became one of the songs that kept people listening the longest...so you can definitely see how many songs become more popular w/ repeated listens....while others don't....lot goes into determining a hit...and sometimes the best is just that gut feeling.

[Slinky]

Mr. said:

AT40 should switch to the Pop 100 now.

That would never, ever happen.

#1 - AT40 is distributed by Premiere Radio Networks, which owns Mediabase.  They're not going to switch to a chart that uses Mediabase's main competitor instead.

#2 - Top 40 programmers want the chart to consist of songs the stations normally play.  If songs like "Candy Shop" and "You And Me" started randomly showing up in the upper chart positions on AT40, programmers would have a fit!  They would probably switch to Dees or Hollywood Hamilton.

AT40's chart is just begging to be fixed, but the Pop 100 is not the answer. As I've said, the Pop 100 is a fun chart to watch, but it doesn't mean anything.  It's not indicative of the "biggest" songs in the land.  It's just this weird combination of Pop airplay and sales, weighted by a seemingly arbitrary number, as Duckhead pointed out earlier in the thread.

[Slinky]

bks said:

Also, internationally, sales rather than airplay is the determination factor in what is considered a hit. 

Historically, that's been because the international market sells a lot more singles than America does.  America moved to buying albums a long time ago, while other countries lagged.  That's starting to even out now, as other countries have picked up album sales, and the US singles market has been reinvigorated by iTunes.

The problem is that albums still make up such a large part of US sales and you can't count albums in a singles chart.  So if I go out and buy the new Eminem album instead of the latest single, that actually HURTS Eminem on the singles chart.  That is why I will never trust a sales chart to determine what the hottest song is. 

[Slinky]

AdonisSMU said:

I like the new Billboard because people can't chart fix songs. Songs can go up at any pace their popularity takes them.

Actually it's quite the opposite.  Sales makes it EASIER to chart-fix songs.  You want your song #1, just make a deal with iTunes to offer it for 10 cents or some other ridiculously low price.

Labels have been doing this in the UK for years.  Set a really low price the 1st week a single is out.  Watch it debut at #1.  Get lots of free press and exposure for having the #1 song in the land.  The UK chart has long been considered a joke for this reason.

[Pink Champagne Ricochet]

the Pop 100 allows more than a couple hundred of PDs and MDs to determine the chart, but I agree that AT40 shouldn't switch to it.

[Slinky]

splitchick59 said:

I wonder if CHR/Pop stations will look at the Pop 100 for any indication of what to add/increase rotation of on their play list. Of course most of the songs will be the same, but there'll be a few (excluding the country songs at the very bottom of the Pop 100) that are getting little airplay but are connecting to some part of the public and therefore might get some stations to take notice. Nah.

Radio stations have always looked at local album and single sales when deciding what kind of rotation songs get.  Since they're already doing this (or at least SHOULD be doing this), the Pop 100 probably won't make any difference.

[Arson]

I think eventually, especially as the popularity of traditional radio stations wane, R&R will be under some pressure to include some data on downloads and/or internet radio.

The R&R chart can also better gauge song longevity. A really hyped release might generate most of the downloads early on, and rise quickly, but seemingly lose steam even though it has staying power. I guess it can be argued that because Billboard incorporates sales, downloads AND airplay, then strong airplay will allow the song to remain on the chart.

I doubt AT40 will switch to Hot 100 because radio is one of the only places where the different genres of music are separated. With charts based on sales or downloads, everything is mixed together, and you might get an outright country song or a hard rock song or a novelty-but-totally-inappropriate rap song somewhere within the top 40. I guess in the heyday of Top 40 music in the 60s, all these genres were on the chart and played on Top 40 radio, but back then, there seemed to be less extremes in the music, and a country song could harmless blend into a rock and roll song or an R&B song, and then into easy listening song.

[jebsib]

How is R&R or the Billboard airplay components going to react if Satelite Radio grows to the levels it is expected to in the next 5 years?

Won't sales become much more prominent as a hit indicator then?

[bks]

A lot of people here seem to feel the Hot 100 and Pop 100 having sales incorporated is a drastic change but it's how the Hot 100 has been computed for decades...we just went a few years there where the sales component was next to nothing...now we are getting close to where we were before in terms of sales...and Billboard will not allow a heavily discounted digital single to chart (part of their new rules for digital singles).

And in the UK, their chart is not looked at as a joke...it's only looked weird recently before the switch to including digital occurs...that country's population more than any other follows the chart religiously...and unlike here, where singles died down to nothing, the physical single is dying there right as the digital single catches on (digital sales are now higher there than in the physical world).  So they are unlikely to have those awkward years we had (it will be only weeks)...and going against the argument that singles cut into album sales (which the labels would like you to believe) most albums see a huge increase in the UK after the single debuts...Scissor Sisters shot back to No. 1 the week "Filthy Gorgeous" debuted at No. 5...Killers went to No. 1 the week "Somebody Told Me" was re-released...and so on...

And a song doing well on a high profile chart (such as the Hot 100) will have a more dramatic affect than it being on a sales chart buried in a magazine...just look at Lifehouse's increase in airplay at Adult Top 40 (+450 spins) following the big chart move.  Especially if media entertainment outlets such as CNN, Entertainment Tonight, E!, etc mention the chart move on their shows (which does happen), it will grab people's (including radio's) attention even more....

[rayato2k4]

I looked at the Pop 100 and Damien Rice was #83! :o :o :o
I'm shocked cuz I taught this song wasn't doing anything on POP. Where is 'Blower's Daughter' doing good then?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Slinky said:

Actually it's quite the opposite.  Sales makes it EASIER to chart-fix songs.  You want your song #1, just make a deal with iTunes to offer it for 10 cents or some other ridiculously low price.

Labels have been doing this in the UK for years.  Set a really low price the 1st week a single is out.  Watch it debut at #1.  Get lots of free press and exposure for having the #1 song in the land.  The UK chart has long been considered a joke for this reason.

You assume too much.... You are assuming people will buy a song because its cheap. People won't waste their money if they don't like it. If it were as simple as offering the song up for a cheap price then all a non-hit song would need to become a hit is be lowered in price. I used to see non hit singles in the bargin bin at the local Virgin Megastore all the time priced at a really low price and people still refused to buy them and the songs still didn't make a dent on any sales chart.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Force said:

How is R&R or the Billboard airplay components going to react if Satelite Radio grows to the levels it is expected to in the next 5 years? 

Won't sales become much more prominent as a hit indicator then?

Yes but billboard tracks satellite radio also. That's what the digital tracks chart does.

I still think sales is ultimately going to be the determining factor in wether or not a song is a hit. Expect the #1 downloaded song on the internet to sell 100k by christmas time next year.

[EvanJ]

DuckHead said:

The Billboard Hot 100 is still recognized as the "official US chart", but only because of it's history. I would claim that AT40 is the "official US chart", as that chart is the only one that non-chart fans hear- it's the only one on the radio. I think that casual radio listeners think that AT40 is Billboard.

I don't think the public thinking AT40 is counting down a Billboard chart should make AT40 the official chart of the country. I don't think it's fair for a one format R&R chart to be the official chart of the country. The Billboard Hot 100 may not be perfect, but it still has more diversity of types of music than any one R&R chart. And I'm sure the American Idols who had Billboard Hot 100 Number 1s would be happy that the Billboard Hot 100 is the official chart and not the R&R/Mediabase/AT40/whatever CHR-Pop chart (with the possible exception of Kelly who has had big CHR-Pop radio success).
Rayato, "The Blower's Daughter" has 1 spin on CHR-Pop.

[mst3k]

Rayato2k5!! said:

I looked at the Pop 100 and Damien Rice was #83! :o :o :o
I'm shocked cuz I taught this song wasn't doing anything on POP. Where is 'Blower's Daughter' doing good then?

Apparently it's selling enough to compensate for its lack of pop airplay (or was two weeks ago... it was #83 on the final Pop 100 test chart, slipped to #95 last week on the first published chart, and fell off this week).

[mst3k]

AdonisSMU said:

Yes but billboard tracks satellite radio also. That's what the digital tracks chart does.

???

The Digital Tracks chart is compiled from download sales.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

bks said:

A lot of people here seem to feel the Hot 100 and Pop 100 having sales incorporated is a drastic change but it's how the Hot 100 has been computed for decades...we just went a few years there where the sales component was next to nothing...now we are getting close to where we were before in terms of sales...and Billboard will not allow a heavily discounted digital single to chart (part of their new rules for digital singles).

And in the UK, their chart is not looked at as a joke...it's only looked weird recently before the switch to including digital occurs...that country's population more than any other follows the chart religiously...and unlike here, where singles died down to nothing, the physical single is dying there right as the digital single catches on (digital sales are now higher there than in the physical world).  So they are unlikely to have those awkward years we had (it will be only weeks)...and going against the argument that singles cut into album sales (which the labels would like you to believe) most albums see a huge increase in the UK after the single debuts...Scissor Sisters shot back to No. 1 the week "Filthy Gorgeous" debuted at No. 5...Killers went to No. 1 the week "Somebody Told Me" was re-released...and so on...

And a song doing well on a high profile chart (such as the Hot 100) will have a more dramatic affect than it being on a sales chart buried in a magazine...just look at Lifehouse's increase in airplay at Adult Top 40 (+450 spins) following the big chart move.  Especially if media entertainment outlets such as CNN, Entertainment Tonight, E!, etc mention the chart move on their shows (which does happen), it will grab people's (including radio's) attention even more....

Great write up!

[Slinky]

AdonisSMU said:

Yes but billboard tracks satellite radio also. That's what the digital tracks chart does.

It would be almost impossible at this point for Billboard to track satellite radio. There are no audience figures for each channel. I'm sure that will change in the future though.

[britrocks16]

I have a question, when were the radio music awards introduced?

[dwp1964]

I have preferred R&R to Billboard since the early 90s but this change could bring Billboard back.

Historically it made sense for sales and airplay to contribute to a song's chart position. However, in the 90's, this became less of a level playing field since so many songs were not released as singles at all. This lead to many songs that most people would recognize as hits never even charting on the Hot 100.

Billboard recognized this a few years ago when they started allowing album cuts onto the Hot 100 but it still seems that sales were affecting the chart too much. Now that they are counting downloads, I hope this will even out the sales over all the songs. Then a song with significant sales will have a legitimate advantage over the other songs, not just due to its availability.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

dwp1964 said:

I have preferred R&R to Billboard since the early 90s but this change could bring Billboard back.

Historically it made sense for sales and airplay to contribute to a song's chart position.  However, in the 90's, this became less of a level playing field since so many songs were not released as singles at all.  This lead to many songs that most people would recognize as hits never even charting on the Hot 100. 

Billboard recognized this a few years ago when they started allowing album cuts onto the Hot 100 but it still seems that sales were affecting the chart too much.  Now that they are counting downloads, I hope this will even out the sales over all the songs.  Then a song with significant sales will have a legitimate advantage over the other songs, not just due to its availability.

Interesting points made here.  Thanks for sharing! 

I think these changes will hopefully force record companies to make songs legally downloadable immediately otherwise fans will download it illegally and then no one wants to download the song legally. J.lo has proved this with her Get Right strategy. She was smart and released it right away. None of her fans had it so they all went and bought it to get it. Mariah Carey on the other hand waited to release her song to ITunes and many fans already had the track so saw no point in getting it again.

[superbu]

botoxic said:

For the past five years... a couple hundred music directors determined the entire chart.... this is a grand return to form for those of us who followed charts in the early 90's, the 80's, and even before that.

AMEN! I was very happy to see Billboard not only begin factoring in downloads, but increasing their importance. If a lot of people are buying a single, however they buy it -- download, CD single, whatever -- then it IS a hit, whether or not radio is giving it a single spin.

You don't have to go back to the 80s to see that it would have taken rap a lot longer to break through to the maintream if it weren't for Billboard's using sales stats in the Hot 100. Some really popular rap records were getting almost no airplay, no exposure... But because of sales, they charted high on the Hot 100, got noticed, and started getting airplay. More examples of this:

Luniz - I Got 5 On It - #8 Hot 100, #4 Sales, only #36 Airplay
Sir Mix-a-Lot - Baby Got Back - #1 Hot 100, #1 Sales, only #16 Airplay
MC Lyte - Keep On Keepin' On - #10 Hot 100, #4 Sales, only #42 Airplay

And going back to the very first hit rap single, Sugarhill Gang's "Rapper's Delight," from late 1979 -- Hot 100 - #36; Radio & Records Pop Airplay - did not chart; Variety's Singles Sales chart - number THREE for two weeks! [Billboard was not yet publishing separate airplay/sales charts.]

I think airplay is especially valuable for artists that are already wildly popular, so most people are going to buy their whole album, or for the second, third, fourth single off an album, when you have millions of downloads/singles you're NOT going to sell because everybody's already got them on the album.

Still, as I've told Geoff Mayfield, I wish Billboard would come up with some fair way to factor in a certain number of points for album sales. That's when their charts will really be fair.

But, in answer to the original post, I disagree -- I think sales are actually MORE important than airplay in determining what the hits are.

[bks]

Slinky said:

It would be almost impossible at this point for Billboard to track satellite radio.  There are no audience figures for each channel.  I'm sure that will change in the future though.

Billboard is currently tracking satellite radio (thru BDS). Right now, they do not have audience figures but they could be added at any point...just a few weeks ago they did add audience figures for Music Choice.

[botoxic]

bks said:

Billboard is currently tracking satellite radio (thru BDS).  Right now, they do not have audience figures but they could be added at any point...

And Billboard has already incorporated satellite radio information into at least one of their spin-based charts.  The dance radio airplay chart includes XM's BPM and Sirius' The Beat amongst its reporters.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

superbu said:

Still, as I've told Geoff Mayfield, I wish Billboard would come up with some fair way to factor in a certain number of points for album sales.  That's when their charts will really be fair.

I don't agree with this statement. Album sales reflect popular albums not popular singles. A single maybe  a great single but the albumit from may be crap, so no one buys the album..... Mario is a perfect example. Everyone loves his #1 Hit "Let Me Love You" but would you actually run out and buy his album? Most people(music buyers) have answered this with a NO at this point.

[620 Soul Train]

AdonisSMU said:

I don't agree with this statement. Album sales reflect popular albums not popular singles. A single maybe  a great single but the albumit from may be crap, so no one buys the album..... Mario is a perfect example. Everyone loves his #1 Hit "Let Me Love You" but would you actually run out and buy his album? Most people(music buyers) have answered this with a NO at this point.

The MTV networks' chart does their based on album sales which is only one of their factors and more. I believe that album sales are based on one popular hit song especially if you are desperate or longing for one great song. Let's be real.

[DuckHead]

superbu said:

But, in answer to the original post, I disagree -- I think sales are actually MORE important than airplay in determining what the hits are.

I agree that sales are more important than airplay, I just don't see an accurate mathematical way to combine them into one chart.

[KikiMets]

Album sales should definitely not be factored in to a singles chart. What if someone likes an album but not a specific single from it? Their album purchase shouldn't affect the single's placement on the chart.

[Deleted]

KikiMets said:

Album sales should definitely not be factored in to a singles chart. What if someone likes an album but not a specific single from it? Their album purchase shouldn't affect the single's placement on the chart.

[Matt4319]

Maybe album purchases could be weighted 1/x of a single purchase (with x being the number of tracks on the album).

[Deleted]

Matt4319 said:

Maybe album purchases could be weighted 1/x of a single purchase (with x being the number of tracks on the album).

Okay, so in Usher's case.. I buy Confessions this week. How do they know whether to give the points to "My Boo" or "Caught Up" or even one of the other singles?