PPM vs Arbitron radio ratings...

[John77]

Much has been made in many forums about the new form of measuring listenership - PPM (aka: portable people meter).

One of the first markets that PPM has hit is Los Angeles... since the primary formats discussed in this forum are CHR/Pop, Rhythmic, Hot AC, AC and Country, these are the five I'm going to post most about.

www.radioandrecords.com/RRRatings

Market 2: Los Angeles

Arbitron ratings 12+ as of 7/22/2008

2. KIIS FM (CHR/Pop): 4.9
5. KPWR FM (Rhythmic): 4.0
6. KOST FM (Adult Cont): 3.7
17. KBIG FM (Hot AC): 1.9
18. KKGO FM (Country): 1.9


PPM ratings (12+): July/August 2008: (note position is August '08 ranking)

1. KIIS-FM CHR/Top 40 6.0 5.9 (avg 5.95)
6. KOST-FM AC 3.6 3.8 (avg 3.70)
10. KBIG-FM Hot AC 3.4 3.2 (avg 3.30)
17. KPWR-FM Rhythmic 2.9 2.7 (avg 2.80)
18. KKGO-FM Country 2.6 2.4 (avg 2.50)

Analyzing these numbers, we find that most of the formats did better in PPM than Arbitron:

KIIS +21%
KOST n/c
KBIG +74%
KPWR -33%
KKGO +32%

Most notably, Hot AC KBIG saw a 74% increase when we compared the PPM numbers to the Arbitron diaries... Country KKGO saw a jump of nearly 1/3, while CHR KIIS increased it's listenership by over 1/5. AC KOST remarkably had the same numbers using both methods, while Rhythmic KPWR lost 1/3 of it's listenership.

Needless to say, the repercussions for this are HUGE. The audience estimates that we've been using based on the Arbitron ratings clearly are not even close to correct in many cases... Consequently, once PPM becomes the standard, you're going to have quite different looking music charts in terms of the audience component.

[John77]

Since most of us are familiar with the audience numbers of songs, how will the above effect them? I'll cover CHR, Hot AC and Rhythmic...

On KIIS FM, a typical spin right now is worth about 60,000 listeners using Arbitron's latest numbers. With PPM, you can bump that up to about 72,000. A song in heavy rotation on KIIS is currently at about 100 spins... or 6,000,000 in audience. With PPM, that figure becomes 7,200,000. An increase in 1,200,000 listeners

On Hot AC KBIG, "heavy rotation" is typically about 40 spins in a week. A typical spin is worth about 23,000 listeners using Arbitron's numbers. With PPM that goes to 40,000 listeners for an a typical spin. In other words, that 920,000 in estimated audience has now gone to 1,600,000! An increase of 680,000 listeners.

Let's take the lone dropper, Rhythmic, KPWR. Right now heavy rotation there is around 110 spins. This is approximately 46,500 listeners for an average spin according to Arbitron. With PPM, that number drops to 31,000 listeners per spin. A song getting 110 spins with Arbitron's numbers would be getting 5,115,000 in audience. Going to PPM, that number drops to 3,410,000. Yes, that's a loss of 1,705,000 in estimated audience!

[EvanJ]

You're assuming that the PPM ratings are correct and the diaries weren't. You neglect to mention the fact that PPM has been controversial because it is accused of being unfair to stations targeting minorities. If you didn't know this before, here's a quote from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portable_People_Meter
"The creator of the PPM, Arbitron, is being challenged by the Spanish Radio Association (SRA) as to its accuracy in measuring the Hispanic population. Of concern to the SRA is the way in which Hispanics are being recruited and represented." www.radioandrecords.com/RRWebSite/NewsStoryPage.aspx?ContentID=6S6lNlVlvYU%3D& is an article from October 3 about the New York Attorney General suing Arbitron over the PPM. The fact the KPWR had the worst change from diary to PPM of the 5 stations you posted may not be because the ratings are now more accurate.

[John77]

Those in the industry have always suspected that Arbitron's ratings were flawed... If you care to question these findings, I strongly suggest you contact David Eduardo or Randy Kabrich... both of whom can be found on the www.radio-info.com site. They will enlighten you a lot more than any little blurb in wikipedia or R&R will.

[EvanJ]

I'm not saying the diaries are perfect, but it's a fact that plenty of people are not happy with PPM. I wouldn't be surprised if KPWR would have done better if the same people were sampled used diaries instead of PPM. I would think that the employees of KPWR and some other stations don't like PPM as much as you do. I doubt it will ever happen, but I would be interested in seeing the results if the same people were ever surveyed for the same period using diaries and PPM to compare. I know David Eduardo is an expert and has worked for radio stations in Latin America but I haven't read anything typed by him recently. David Eduardo couldn't convince me that the Attorney General of New York didn't sue Arbitron over PPM. I don't know Randy Kabrich.

[John77]

Oct 22, 2008 20:36:34 GMT -5 EvanJ said:

I'm not saying the diaries are perfect, but it's a fact that plenty of people are not happy with PPM. I wouldn't be surprised if KPWR would have done better if the same people were sampled used diaries instead of PPM. I would think that the employees of KPWR and some other stations don't like PPM as much as you do. I doubt it will ever happen, but I would be interested in seeing the results if the same people were ever surveyed for the same period using diaries and PPM to compare. I know David Eduardo is an expert and has worked for radio stations in Latin America but I haven't read anything typed by him recently. David Eduardo couldn't convince me that the Attorney General of New York didn't sue Arbitron over PPM. I don't know Randy Kabrich.

Well, there are many more people that are happy with PPM than are not judging from the industry boards.

It's also quite a bit more expensive to administer the Arbitron surveys than doing PPM. There's a lot of manual labor involved also in tabiulating the Arbtron results. This isn't the case for PPM.

Given the above, and the way the music industry is trending towards consolidation and cutting costs, Arbitron will likely be going the way of the dinosaur in the next few years.

As for Randy Kabrich, he's a very high profile person in the radio industry. If you don't know of him, it's probably because you're not in the industry or you haven't followed it closely. He's one of the most highly respected men in the entire radio industry. He also doesn't have to find work - it finds him! He works with whom he wants to... that's how esteemed he is.

Here's one of his many enlightening posts about Arbitron and PPM from back in April prior PPM being rolled out as posted on the www.radio-info.com forum

"Saga and others on the Arbitron Radio Advisory Board are small market broadcasters who do not have a stake in PPM. The few major companies in the RAC (with the exception of CBS) want PPM rollout halted until MRC accrediation. The small market broadcasters think its "neat" and "gee-whiz". They want full steam ahead without understanding the significance of what PPM means if done wrong.

Perhaps you should do your homework (as the editors of the aforementioned trades have done) and find out how PPM will really make an impact on your life if you are in a Top 50 market - or in the future if you hope to get there.

Then you will understand why this has to be right."